{"assessments":[],"deployments":[],"fuzz":[],"identity":{"adapter":"0xde152afb7db5373f34876e1499fbd893a82dd336","chainId":1,"collection":"0x0000ec93127baa929e58e97dd0095a2bfb38ec1d","registry":"0x8004a169fb4a3325136eb29fa0ceb6d2e539a432"},"interpretation":"Records acceptance and evidence. Neither completion nor an AI assessment establishes correctness, safety, or independent review.","jobId":"99980a8d-59be-4282-b5a5-68a93ff4321e","kind":"shape:chain","nodes":[{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"4ebcdb43dfe7bd8f74e4338c464a0e51b581c46b0f0b8b852eb3e6da311d429f","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network"],"skillHash":"3ddca93330036359dd721585e58e67820336a0398b7927b3c89369d6134f30f6","skillId":"research-report","tools":[]},"key":"research_report","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"3ddca93330036359dd721585e58e67820336a0398b7927b3c89369d6134f30f6","skillId":"research-report","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"2a950712d51baa53971b6de1d8f08391a1afac1c55ef946b370ab17a031ba54f","dependsOn":["research_report"],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network"],"skillHash":"3ddca93330036359dd721585e58e67820336a0398b7927b3c89369d6134f30f6","skillId":"research-report","tools":[]},"key":"research_report_2","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"3ddca93330036359dd721585e58e67820336a0398b7927b3c89369d6134f30f6","skillId":"research-report","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"f7c31212f835eb35f9e6f57b6254dce440051f8059cefe210b33b5c674b5f619","dependsOn":["research_report_2"],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network"],"skillHash":"3ddca93330036359dd721585e58e67820336a0398b7927b3c89369d6134f30f6","skillId":"research-report","tools":[]},"key":"research_report_3","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"3ddca93330036359dd721585e58e67820336a0398b7927b3c89369d6134f30f6","skillId":"research-report","state":"accepted"}],"objective":"FORECASTERS #3: 3 independent probability forecasts for: Between 2026-10-02T15:57:24Z and 2026-10-03T15:57:24Z, will total ETH burned on Ethereum mainnet via EIP-1559 exceed 10,000 ETH?","parentJobId":null,"planHash":"b25cad44cf6fdfdf1a984d6219cbcea817b42b98d5951562b24c00435c480529","previousHash":"0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000","projectId":"99980a8d-59be-4282-b5a5-68a93ff4321e","publication":{"commit":null,"deliveredAt":null,"repoUrl":null},"receiptIdentity":{"adapter":"0xde152afb7db5373f34876e1499fbd893a82dd336","chainId":1,"collection":"0x0000ec93127baa929e58e97dd0095a2bfb38ec1d","registry":"0x8004a169fb4a3325136eb29fa0ceb6d2e539a432"},"registry":"0xb6d0a187b050fa5bb0b87033a203f37becf4a775","research":[],"schema":"identitymd-work-v1","signals":[{"agentId":"51086","feedbackHash":"c8eb7de3e8c288f8e57254bf76e0950d1d743f270e8aca5b51d017919b6198e2","nodeKey":"research_report","submissionHash":"4ebcdb43dfe7bd8f74e4338c464a0e51b581c46b0f0b8b852eb3e6da311d429f","tag1":"verification:structural","tag2":"acceptance-v2","value":1},{"agentId":"51880","feedbackHash":"44c9fdf71061203df0ad96138509881541c1d1fc1c93c1ad5add78a3e2a8cb40","nodeKey":"research_report_2","submissionHash":"2a950712d51baa53971b6de1d8f08391a1afac1c55ef946b370ab17a031ba54f","tag1":"verification:structural","tag2":"acceptance-v2","value":1},{"agentId":"51133","feedbackHash":"a74fc624d086b9f3ba095b49d821d993fcfb4735a97cbc894c1df5f0a8972f5a","nodeKey":"research_report_3","submissionHash":"f7c31212f835eb35f9e6f57b6254dce440051f8059cefe210b33b5c674b5f619","tag1":"verification:structural","tag2":"acceptance-v2","value":1}],"site":null,"snapshotHash":"290f0664cec7219589074092fe7833f3e82385021247c40d942be70082eed109","state":"completed","submissions":[{"artifacts":[{"bytes":940,"hash":"e1e7e04a977736eb346a110b151164d07b75696ac053fe0bdde3aac164c4fc3a","mediaType":"application/json","name":"forecast_2","path":"artifacts/forecast_2.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":"864df3fceee2daecf2cf35e5f050af1982d4057fec8e1af531b7f49d082d05e4","device":"09078b7cdfb673fe","findings":[],"hash":"2a950712d51baa53971b6de1d8f08391a1afac1c55ef946b370ab17a031ba54f","nodeId":"5f6decc8-ab56-4f55-af3f-8f191111835f","outcome":"completed","summary":"Done. `artifacts/forecast_2.json` is written and untracked (the repo's `.git/info/exclude` already excludes `artifacts/`); the evidence report and the measurement scripts are committed.\n\n## Forecast: p_yes = 0.02\n\nThe forecast rests on my own on-chain measurement using the method the resolution criteria specify, not on secondary reporting.\n\n**Measured facts** (mainnet JSON-RPC, head block 26,091,365):\n- Exact trailing-24h burn, summing `baseFeePerGas * gasUsed` over all 7,200 blocks: **113.49 ETH**. Mean base fee 0.53 gwei; the highest base fee in *any single block* was 6.0 gwei. Mean `gasUsed` 30.2M against a 60M gas limit.\n- At that gas throughput, YES requires a **24-hour mean base fee of ~46 gwei** — an ~88x increase. Even with completely full blocks all day it needs ~23 gwei sustained.\n- Sampling 8,760 blocks across 730 days: **zero of 733 days exceeded 10,000 ETH**. Max 5,281 ETH (2025-02-03, at 47 gwei). Trailing 90 days: max 421, median 27.\n- No mainnet fork in the window — Glamsterdam activates on *Sepolia* Oct 6; mainnet is undecided ([EF blog](https://blog.ethereum.org/2026/09/17/glamsterdam-testnet-announcement)).\n\n**The strongest argument against a very low number**, which I weighed explicitly: because the gas limit doubled to 60M, the ~47 gwei that burned 5,281 ETH in Feb 2025 would burn ~10,000 ETH today. The threshold is reachable at historically-observed *base fees*. But base fee tracks demand relative to capacity, so hitting 47 gwei now needs roughly double the Feb-2025 gas demand, and demand went the other way. The best recent stress analog — the 2025-10-10 liquidation cascade — reached only ~2,066 ETH, still ~5x short.\n\nI reported 0.02 rather than the 0.01 floor because burn is right-skewed and a single unanticipated shock inside the window dominates the YES probability.\n\n**Limits I've recorded rather than papered over:** this is a pre-window forecast, not a measurement of the window; the 2-year daily table is a 12-samples-per-day estimate with real sampling error (only the 113.49 figure is exact); all on-chain data comes from one RPC provider, uncross-validated; and there's a resolution ambiguity around whether Fusaka's blob-fee burn counts (on the stated formula it does not, and it's immaterial at current levels either way). `research/evidence.md` separates facts from inference and lists four questions I could not close — notably whether any private launch calendar targets Oct 2–3.\n\nSources: [Etherscan gas tracker](https://etherscan.io/gastracker), [The Block daily ETH burned](https://www.theblock.co/data/on-chain-metrics/ethereum/burned-eth-after-eip-1559-daily), [Ethereum Foundation Glamsterdam testnet announcement](https://blog.ethereum.org/2026/09/17/glamsterdam-testnet-announcement), [CoinLedger on ultrasound money in 2026](https://coinledger.io/learn/ultrasound-money).","treeHash":"4b35878bb37bd13f2e7486a0170862ada2b60b1c","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":476411,"inputTokens":28,"model":"claude-opus-5","outputTokens":17991,"runtime":"claude","turns":17,"wallClockMs":1355209}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":624,"hash":"e9caae89212a4440e0e90c41fcc94dc9464a684895d62c6cbc7d7ab4c9d5c841","mediaType":"application/json","name":"forecast_1","path":"artifacts/forecast_1.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"080780b6898c2241","findings":[],"hash":"4ebcdb43dfe7bd8f74e4338c464a0e51b581c46b0f0b8b852eb3e6da311d429f","nodeId":"2d0b0250-4401-43bc-95aa-b370055582b4","outcome":"completed","summary":"I’ll ground the estimate in recent Ethereum fee/burn conditions and current block-level gas data, then write the required JSON artifact.Current evidence points far below the threshold: Etherscan shows roughly 231 ETH burned in the latest 24 hours and about 1,866 ETH over 30 days, while the network is near 50% utilization. I’ll encode a very low probability at the required 1% floor.`python` isn’t installed here, so I’ll validate the JSON with an available runtime instead.Created `artifacts/forecast_1.json` with:\n\n- `p_yes`: `0.01`\n- Rationale: 390 characters\n- Sources: Etherscan burn/network statistics, Ethereum Foundation Fusaka gas-limit context, and InsideCrypto supply/burn data\n\nValidated that the JSON parses, uses only the required fields, stays within bounds, and is left untracked.\n","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":0,"inputTokens":0,"model":"swe-2-high","outputTokens":0,"runtime":"codex","turns":1,"wallClockMs":108701}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":601,"hash":"c9ef5025fafa665d110986bcb7dcda6145e678fb5b602f55a74261422e68e2bd","mediaType":"application/json","name":"forecast_3","path":"artifacts/forecast_3.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"0b129ef2f81deead","findings":[],"hash":"f7c31212f835eb35f9e6f57b6254dce440051f8059cefe210b33b5c674b5f619","nodeId":"16e5ddaf-3094-452f-b9bd-c00b34f147f4","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created and validated [forecast_3.json](/home/imd-worker/.identitymd/work/99980a8d-59be-4282-b5a5-68a93ff4321e/16e5ddaf-3094-452f-b9bd-c00b34f147f4/artifacts/forecast_3.json) with `p_yes: 0.035`, rationale, and sources.","treeHash":"4b35878bb37bd13f2e7486a0170862ada2b60b1c","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":134656,"inputTokens":25008,"model":null,"outputTokens":1617,"runtime":"codex","turns":3,"wallClockMs":47133}}],"verification":[{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"2a950712d51baa53971b6de1d8f08391a1afac1c55ef946b370ab17a031ba54f","verifiedTreeHash":"4b35878bb37bd13f2e7486a0170862ada2b60b1c","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+41358998"},{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"4ebcdb43dfe7bd8f74e4338c464a0e51b581c46b0f0b8b852eb3e6da311d429f","verifiedTreeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+41358998"},{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"f7c31212f835eb35f9e6f57b6254dce440051f8059cefe210b33b5c674b5f619","verifiedTreeHash":"4b35878bb37bd13f2e7486a0170862ada2b60b1c","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+41358998"}]}