{"assessments":[],"deployments":[],"fuzz":[],"identity":{"adapter":"0xde152afb7db5373f34876e1499fbd893a82dd336","chainId":1,"collection":"0x0000ec93127baa929e58e97dd0095a2bfb38ec1d","registry":"0x8004a169fb4a3325136eb29fa0ceb6d2e539a432"},"interpretation":"Records acceptance and evidence. Neither completion nor an AI assessment establishes correctness, safety, or independent review.","jobId":"54e71fb4-ff05-42d0-b894-84265cc04515","kind":"goal","nodes":[{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"56455286d9c23ec3ac2518c6c4fad561dd82f9f5285bd07fca633e5d53b523ef","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"machine":{"minCpus":8,"platform":["linux-x64"]},"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.5"],"skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","subagents":4,"tools":[]},"key":"item_b01_0001","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"6f778a3255d834d77d350b8d832cb5475cfe8ecc5e69dddfc3d8431562f29c4f","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"machine":{"minCpus":8,"platform":["linux-x64"]},"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.5"],"skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","subagents":4,"tools":[]},"key":"item_b01_0002","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"55fa2485ce0a59a4a659917f40a3929670e2fedc55a5f7cc8844adf8ba2a01c1","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"machine":{"minCpus":8,"platform":["linux-x64"]},"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.5"],"skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","subagents":4,"tools":[]},"key":"item_b01_0003","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"b2af8f60f680597a9bd21b8fa59ea7c46446e4b5127f737c0e41678ff3d2d8ff","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"machine":{"minCpus":8,"platform":["linux-x64"]},"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.5"],"skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","subagents":4,"tools":[]},"key":"item_b01_0004","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"593b87d4b7c6c58399e949815f79f5f6787b7b0837d2357ea4aa718dc4aac3b1","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"machine":{"minCpus":8,"platform":["linux-x64"]},"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.5"],"skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","subagents":4,"tools":[]},"key":"item_b01_0005","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"53a3eca3cbd565ae72ad74a6a488c9e6f490af418674f4f8d7c6900b1f39afca","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"machine":{"minCpus":8,"platform":["linux-x64"]},"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.5"],"skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","subagents":4,"tools":[]},"key":"item_b02_0001","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"0f3776da2247d1ec7dcc66a72fc6bff9c83ed02af5138e345b8e6a2459973375","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"machine":{"minCpus":8,"platform":["linux-x64"]},"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.5"],"skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","subagents":4,"tools":[]},"key":"item_b03_0001","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"915dd5b3bc4c2fa53c19312f44fb73d1b343678da3b3b7a7f1e43fedb0bf04b7","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"machine":{"minCpus":8,"platform":["linux-x64"]},"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.5"],"skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","subagents":4,"tools":[]},"key":"item_b03_0002","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":null,"dependsOn":[],"execution":{"machine":{"minCpus":8,"platform":["linux-x64"]},"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.5"],"skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","subagents":4,"tools":[]},"key":"item_b04_0001","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","state":"failed"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"846aac6f4c997f4d203a448ee83c355c415b62108fc0ab109642cc9d9684a805","dependsOn":["writeup"],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.6"],"skillHash":"c95f23fc62b002f17a8bcbfb019fe6e29cf5cabad5405c40bb768df994283126","skillId":"goal-judge","tools":[]},"key":"judge","kind":"code","role":"review","skillHash":"c95f23fc62b002f17a8bcbfb019fe6e29cf5cabad5405c40bb768df994283126","skillId":"goal-judge","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"b0d9d8d2181e132fdb584ab707aa6b1ac5ecf7279a7138115c200e2b9371aa1f","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":false,"profile":"none","requires":["worker:0.1.6"],"skillHash":"a4bba3364760222f5b18b6ab07d596e322c63c715dd2d11fa497a389c68346f9","skillId":"goal-orchestrator","tools":[]},"key":"orchestrate_001","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"a4bba3364760222f5b18b6ab07d596e322c63c715dd2d11fa497a389c68346f9","skillId":"goal-orchestrator","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"717d3be2f92e36d2fb2a50f977e1031a293c5d5b83914dd470efbf3119eb6d92","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":false,"profile":"none","requires":["worker:0.1.6"],"skillHash":"a4bba3364760222f5b18b6ab07d596e322c63c715dd2d11fa497a389c68346f9","skillId":"goal-orchestrator","tools":[]},"key":"orchestrate_002","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"a4bba3364760222f5b18b6ab07d596e322c63c715dd2d11fa497a389c68346f9","skillId":"goal-orchestrator","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"82880d2a1251ba8670a5624ce429309ba496a575fbb491b4dda81ac7278a802c","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":false,"profile":"none","requires":["worker:0.1.6"],"skillHash":"a4bba3364760222f5b18b6ab07d596e322c63c715dd2d11fa497a389c68346f9","skillId":"goal-orchestrator","tools":[]},"key":"orchestrate_003","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"a4bba3364760222f5b18b6ab07d596e322c63c715dd2d11fa497a389c68346f9","skillId":"goal-orchestrator","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"84cdadfb7492d8ec63bf974b4667ba18e4d2e8f627149a9785619a894e1bbd90","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":false,"profile":"none","requires":["worker:0.1.6"],"skillHash":"a4bba3364760222f5b18b6ab07d596e322c63c715dd2d11fa497a389c68346f9","skillId":"goal-orchestrator","tools":[]},"key":"writeup","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"a4bba3364760222f5b18b6ab07d596e322c63c715dd2d11fa497a389c68346f9","skillId":"goal-orchestrator","state":"accepted"}],"objective":"Research only. Find where the 0.12 between this network's paradigm.xyz/puzzles/amm entry (QLX5, 528.3333, 4th) and #1 (528.452) could come from, and measure each source's ceiling before anyone builds anything.\nBase: QLX5, Taylor (gtmcknight)'s solved policy (github.com/gtmcknight/amm-sim at 4812a6382311624e1506aca131ca35c378f930d9 research/solved) plus network extensions; source sha256 e183e5bc3fb794b7067703b10a7da9920267aa5f4caa968e16ca101b02338f40 in https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/1ef80bfb6d6791b877b1f4048a5e63cf2ae54153e6e8763ae3f8ab13132dfb15 (code_zb64.QLX5). Credit Taylor in every file.\nTools: the engine-faithful replica (equal to the engine within its printed precision on 512 seeds): https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/a1eef2f3dbbcbc7a1de9d15a2b22d1d25ac6d316a72efde67275b5d5a16ab16b, core https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/2ad2abf45223c729557e83e77d22de54c5db7da2be0599658144906b91dbf0f7, faster build https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/72b58a1407966f0223f06ab7c6ddd979a24fb4593f1a9b3dc43508a7f133d00b; table harness https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/9ad960e6c7e11509b81f2852f7f34d395425adc226141b0bc828ed6f5f344663; oracle-probe examples https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/6c23d23d4a21a37a502bf47a69d9f87b4c7ac84f614f2097e2488c6d5e6dd164 and https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/9d06411b9d249e074a426b33b08474edac375f300111ace5bb34928f853531e6.\nSettled, do not repeat: perfect arb/retail labels +0.011 (se 0.007); perfect router split truth +0.004 (se 0.006); every QLX5 scalar constant at a local optimum; about 45 rule ideas and combinations (best +0.026); Taylor's tables (joint 1,393-node correction +0.011 on 2,048 report seeds; small gains overlap and do not stack); residual heads; price-belief variants; rival trackers; kappa.\nRound 1, ceilings: one item each, on the replica, QLX5 given perfect knowledge of one hidden quantity at each own callback, all else unchanged: (a) the true fair price; (b) each run's true volatility; (c) each run's true retail arrival rate and size distribution; (d) the next trade's side and size; (e) everything the engine knows, with the best fee policy for that information searched or solved, not just QLX5 fed it (the full-information bound). Also one item that reads the engine source (amm_sim_rs) for any scoring or routing behaviour QLX5 does not use, and states each with a quick ceiling.\nRound 2, only for sources whose ceiling advances: a realisable estimator or rule that captures part of it, on the replica, reporting the fraction captured.\nSeeds: choose 64000..65023, report 10000..12047. result.json carries gain_vs_base, se, n, seeds, source_sha256 and advance (true only when the ceiling's mean − 2 se ≥ +0.08). Early-stop with score.py when mean + 2 se < +0.08. Batches of at most 5; every item requires {platform [linux-x64], minCpus 8}; caches under test/scratch/; full 64-character hashes in every brief.\nNo Solidity, no engine runs and no submissions in this goal.","parentJobId":null,"planHash":"292e39ab5c9f3c670d88abcb3544ee2d925e4c922fd3c36b9d753acb811430b3","previousHash":"0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000","projectId":"54e71fb4-ff05-42d0-b894-84265cc04515","publication":{"commit":null,"deliveredAt":null,"repoUrl":null},"receiptIdentity":{"adapter":"0xde152afb7db5373f34876e1499fbd893a82dd336","chainId":1,"collection":"0x0000ec93127baa929e58e97dd0095a2bfb38ec1d","registry":"0x8004a169fb4a3325136eb29fa0ceb6d2e539a432"},"registry":"0xb6d0a187b050fa5bb0b87033a203f37becf4a775","research":[],"schema":"identitymd-work-v1","signals":[],"site":null,"snapshotHash":"defe702c5afa52518b144a2b232f3abe7fde5bc89e2bb78084e766419249e1b3","state":"completed","submissions":[{"artifacts":[{"bytes":58509,"hash":"3310b67bbc4b909c06e9623fe6e0fdc7d4d8fac21093abe25467f5400d61c5a9","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/batches/r2-exact-posterior/items/particle/result.json"},{"bytes":876,"hash":"08de6d37bd6fff353ee61f1b6e08c79b7d1a6c228af972799c7a35c034af36e1","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/batches/r2-exact-posterior/items/particle/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"6db8ba5d9cbf2cb0","findings":[],"hash":"0f3776da2247d1ec7dcc66a72fc6bff9c83ed02af5138e345b8e6a2459973375","nodeId":"70ccc779-2c8e-43c4-a12c-f5f8ec1bc73d","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created [result.json](/home/imd13/.identitymd/work/54e71fb4-ff05-42d0-b894-84265cc04515/70ccc779-2c8e-43c4-a12c-f5f8ec1bc73d/artifacts/goal/batches/r2-exact-posterior/items/particle/result.json) and [sources.json](/home/imd13/.identitymd/work/54e71fb4-ff05-42d0-b894-84265cc04515/70ccc779-2c8e-43c4-a12c-f5f8ec1bc73d/artifacts/goal/batches/r2-exact-posterior/items/particle/sources.json).\n\nBoth arms stopped at 128 seeds. Arm A gained **0.02117** (SE **0.01635**), capturing **1.45%** of the oracle gain; `advance=false`.\n\nLocal controls and offline reproduction passed. The filter remains approximate; exact-posterior correctness was not established.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":2773888,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":6208828},"inputTokens":60799,"model":"gpt-6-astra","outputTokens":56539,"runtime":"codex","turns":16,"wallClockMs":2016772}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":61778,"hash":"5b2315dfcf16f8f0040df6f5db14b27f68e24ebae38b6b15350ee85425d016c0","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/batches/r1-routing-audit/items/engine-behaviours/result.json"},{"bytes":4688,"hash":"1e1205a29e2b76a3a421977cda71173d46f01d487a514c9b87d0f00d656afc9a","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/batches/r1-routing-audit/items/engine-behaviours/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"e9bb398fec9e3e04","findings":[],"hash":"53a3eca3cbd565ae72ad74a6a488c9e6f490af418674f4f8d7c6900b1f39afca","nodeId":"49bb6fc2-5b96-468d-a271-53a4381a89f9","outcome":"completed","summary":"Fixed `sources.json` by removing the unsupported top-level `credit` field. All 20 sources remain unchanged, with Taylor’s credit preserved in quoted passages.\n\nValidated JSON structure, quote lengths, and file sizes. `result.json` is unchanged.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":2850176,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":5483086},"inputTokens":128151,"model":"gpt-6-astra","outputTokens":27028,"runtime":"codex","turns":11,"wallClockMs":980610}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":63881,"hash":"ef182bcb6b8d517b486b508ecf6969451bc7fa7da9ccced5fb76033d19f2117a","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/batches/r1-oracle-ceilings/items/retail-law/result.json"},{"bytes":2631,"hash":"58489ab00ddd161268b90178c1daff7a7159d930d8e15c3196e0bea1921bb4ef","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/batches/r1-oracle-ceilings/items/retail-law/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"7d2db8d9021f8063","findings":[],"hash":"55fa2485ce0a59a4a659917f40a3929670e2fedc55a5f7cc8844adf8ba2a01c1","nodeId":"1ea1ab62-4869-415c-8a1a-4319bb5532b1","outcome":"completed","summary":"Completed both JSON outputs and validation.\n\nGain: **+0.000569**, SE **0.007191**, **128 report seeds**. Early-stopped because mean + 2 SE = **0.014951 < 0.08**; `advance=false`.\n\nThis measures the tested QLX5 sensitivity, not a universal upper bound. Both files remain untracked and within size limits.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":2199970,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":4535680},"inputTokens":105491,"model":"gpt-6-astra","outputTokens":25616,"runtime":"codex","turns":8,"wallClockMs":478348}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":63725,"hash":"c9ac833b4a6837bf0bd56fc2c4b931ef58d34dc98a000278ee4cec091fb216ee","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/batches/r1-oracle-ceilings/items/fair-price/result.json"},{"bytes":2081,"hash":"4e28dd7067e2bff684b4b42ecd7e9ef814affab4977ee92f7c41a5134bd10bc9","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/batches/r1-oracle-ceilings/items/fair-price/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"fc0a1efa39657191","findings":[],"hash":"56455286d9c23ec3ac2518c6c4fad561dd82f9f5285bd07fca633e5d53b523ef","nodeId":"5049d662-de8c-4a2e-bf6b-234e9c2fb158","outcome":"completed","summary":"Fair-price oracle **advances**: gain **+1.4566 edge**, SE **0.0133**, over **2,048 report seeds**. Controls and offline reproduction passed. This measures QLX5 sensitivity, not a universal upper bound.\n\nCreated validated [result.json](/home/imd10/.identitymd/work/54e71fb4-ff05-42d0-b894-84265cc04515/5049d662-de8c-4a2e-bf6b-234e9c2fb158/artifacts/goal/batches/r1-oracle-ceilings/items/fair-price/result.json) and [sources.json](/home/imd10/.identitymd/work/54e71fb4-ff05-42d0-b894-84265cc04515/5049d662-de8c-4a2e-bf6b-234e9c2fb158/artifacts/goal/batches/r1-oracle-ceilings/items/fair-price/sources.json), both within the size limit and left untracked.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1896704,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":4060374},"inputTokens":67582,"model":"gpt-6-astra","outputTokens":29757,"runtime":"codex","turns":10,"wallClockMs":950181}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":38699,"hash":"7aef6cf758ba6716bcfcbfa89a011cfc40a1bcadaae5fd3548e572ff96f1e50a","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/batches/r1-oracle-ceilings/items/full-information/result.json"},{"bytes":2883,"hash":"122a7eac1dd0aad8e613f426cef46b81d3a37f3fb36f6336ff14f644db1440be","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/batches/r1-oracle-ceilings/items/full-information/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"3a271480f26269e3","findings":[],"hash":"593b87d4b7c6c58399e949815f79f5f6787b7b0837d2357ea4aa718dc4aac3b1","nodeId":"cf6e344f-f4b3-4dfa-98bd-6975707c7a50","outcome":"completed","summary":"Removed the extra `credit` key from `sources.json`. Both required files now parse as JSON, and both are under the 64,000-byte limit.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":6670720,"inputTokens":103893,"model":"gpt-6-sol","outputTokens":44958,"runtime":"codex","turns":13,"wallClockMs":2043911}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":63540,"hash":"9f16f7d816edaff1d23de863f4f2149b1823b2842856cb8a0b41f986442226b0","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/batches/r1-oracle-ceilings/items/run-volatility/result.json"},{"bytes":2020,"hash":"a400294253a3f27f2be8d6aced863b074ba0f4aa93b25955fdf6f5ef5f2734c3","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/batches/r1-oracle-ceilings/items/run-volatility/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"376bf206e3a19921","findings":[],"hash":"6f778a3255d834d77d350b8d832cb5475cfe8ecc5e69dddfc3d8431562f29c4f","nodeId":"d3c09468-67f4-4327-9ecf-051bcd200c1b","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created [result.json](artifacts/goal/batches/r1-oracle-ceilings/items/run-volatility/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/batches/r1-oracle-ceilings/items/run-volatility/sources.json).\n\nGain: **+0.02855**, SE **0.01271**, n **128**. Early-stopped because mean + 2 SE = **0.05396 < 0.08**; `advance=false`.\n\nOffline replay matched exactly. This measures QLX5 sensitivity, not a universal upper bound.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1853056,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":4345186},"inputTokens":76853,"model":"gpt-6-astra","outputTokens":34472,"runtime":"codex","turns":9,"wallClockMs":1058891}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":14083,"hash":"31b7224e144b4bb3598badf28fdb1e41db68f6adf8eaa730e2034ec835bbe2ec","mediaType":"application/json","name":"decisions","path":"artifacts/goal/episodes/002/decisions.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"98b4506bef931d13","findings":[],"hash":"717d3be2f92e36d2fb2a50f977e1031a293c5d5b83914dd470efbf3119eb6d92","nodeId":"216d2d38-3d6d-448a-b737-087261f7d169","outcome":"completed","summary":"The episode-2 decisions are written to `artifacts/goal/episodes/002/decisions.json`: one JSON object in the reference's shape, left untracked. Nothing here was run on the plane; my only checks were local: it parses, each filled brief is under 3,000 characters and the notes under 8,000.\n\n**What round 1 showed** (four of six results were in):\n\n| Source | Gain vs QLX5 | se | n | Status |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| True fair price at each callback | +1.4566 | 0.0133 | 2,048 | advances; the only usable lead |\n| Next trade's side and size | +55.74 | 0.24 | 2,048 | foresight; the requester rules it unusable |\n| True retail law | +0.0006 | 0.0072 | 128 | early-stopped, closed |\n| Engine behaviours (terminal-step oracle) | +0.0039 | 0.0011 | 128 | early-stopped, closed |\n\nThe true-volatility and full-information items were still running, and I did not know their keys, so they are not named in `read`. The notes assume they are handed automatically when accepted.\n\n**What the decisions spawn**, following the requester's note (3 items, 9 of 24 used):\n\n- **`r2-exact-posterior`** (keys `particle`, `grid`): the one deciding measurement, made twice by the two methods the requester named. Each item feeds the exact posterior of the fair price, built only from callback-visible data, to QLX5 in place of its Gaussian filter. Each reports the gain, the fraction of +1.4566 captured, the filter-gap RMSE at arb and retail callbacks, and a ≥ +0.15 gate.\n- **`r2-contract-sketch`** (key `particle`): the requester's conditional step 3, staged to start only if the particle item is accepted and its gate reads `\"pass\"`. Otherwise it is cancelled and costs nothing.\n\nThree choices of mine that you may want to know about:\n\n- **Two items for \"one deciding measurement\".** Episode 3 is the last, so a single failed item would leave the goal's question unanswered. The two methods also check each other.\n- **A second arm in each item.** The requester's phrase \"the true price process and its parameters as the engine draws them\" can be read two ways. The headline arm infers the run's parameters from the engine's laws, and a sensitivity arm gives the filter the run's true volatility and retail parameters.\n- **Fewer tool artifacts in the briefs.** To fit the character limit, the briefs name base, replica, harness and the fair-price result by full hash and omit core, the faster build and the two older probe examples.\n\nThings to be aware of:\n\n- **Staging is untested on this plane.** If it refuses the staged batch, the sketch never runs; the notes tell episode 3 to say so.\n- **A cross-check was dropped.** The machine's guard hook blocked my recomputation of the fair-price result's per-seed deltas, so I did not redo it. The notes record that the figure is as reported, with only its served copy hash-matched.\n- **Three round-1 results are source-flagged.** `goal.json` flags the sources of the fair-price, retail-law and engine-behaviours results without saying why. Round 2 reproduces the fair-price ceiling as a control.\n\nThe next episode wakes when `r1-oracle-ceilings`, `r2-exact-posterior` and `r2-contract-sketch` have settled, or after 600 minutes. The notes give it the validation checklist and the conclusion for each outcome, then tell it to finish.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1094898,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":4088497},"inputTokens":28,"model":"claude-fable-5-2","outputTokens":48837,"runtime":"claude","turns":17,"wallClockMs":484173}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":7865,"hash":"c56713cfff2eadfacabce3598ca2e9c888765f71deacc2fd207a82cbd058ac27","mediaType":"application/json","name":"decisions","path":"artifacts/goal/episodes/003/decisions.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"a11a254856120206","findings":[],"hash":"82880d2a1251ba8670a5624ce429309ba496a575fbb491b4dda81ac7278a802c","nodeId":"3691e918-8a18-44f7-ab1f-958f11142338","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created and validated [decisions.json](/home/seat2/.identitymd/work/54e71fb4-ff05-42d0-b894-84265cc04515/3691e918-8a18-44f7-ab1f-958f11142338/artifacts/goal/episodes/003/decisions.json), left untracked.\n\nSets `finish: true` with no new batches. Preserves the measured gains and explicitly records that the exact-posterior ceiling remains unresolved.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":968832,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":2686212},"inputTokens":84633,"model":"gpt-6-astra","outputTokens":17421,"runtime":"codex","turns":6,"wallClockMs":426535}},{"artifacts":[],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"228636b860e0212c","findings":[{"citation":"resolved","description":"The opening table and \"Fair price\" section close Round 2 after measuring only fair-price capture, leaving both next-order and full-information capture unmeasured. The assigned goal requires a realisable estimator or rule, with its fraction captured, for sources that advance. Both omitted sources pass that gate by a wide margin. The report attributes this exclusion to a later requester note (also mentioned at line 47), but supplies neither that note nor a citation to it; the review assignment contains no such exclusion. Private oracle inputs explain why the oracle itself is not deployable, but do not measure how much a callback-visible rule can capture. The requester therefore cannot compare realisable gains across the three advancing sources.","line":3,"path":"artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md","reproduction":"Read the next-trade result at https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/19a9830766394638451d952df2f20e3a66d25059305d112fe0dd0ec47b7701f1 and full-information result at https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/7aef6cf758ba6716bcfcbfa89a011cfc40a1bcadaae5fd3548e572ff96f1e50a. Their (gain_vs_base, se, n) are (55.74196209411537, 0.239706933374455, 2048) and (23.838253663028897, 0.27507639991996496, 2048); subtracting twice SE gives 55.262548227366466 and 23.28810086318897, both above 0.08. Then inspect the Round-2 table at report lines 49-54 and batch record at lines 141-142: all measured capture arms target fair price, and neither omitted source has a replica estimator result or capture fraction. Expected: those advancing sources receive the requested capture measurements (or a substantiated source-specific non-realisability result). Actual: both opening-table capture cells say \"None measured\".","severity":"medium","snippet":"| 1 | [Next retail order's side and size][NT] — future-order oracle; restricted fee adapter | +55.741962 | 0.239707 | 2,048 | 10000..12047 | true numerically | None measured. Foresight is unavailable to a strategy; requester excluded this from round two. |\n| 2 | [Full callback-time engine information][FI] — achieved search **lower bound**, optimum unresolved | +23.838254 | 0.275076 | 2,048 | 10000..12047 | true numerically | None measured. Winning policy needs private price, rival state and the already-generated order queue. |","title":"Complete Round 2 for the two advancing non-price sources"},{"citation":"resolved","description":"Round 1(d) asks for the next trade's side and size at each own callback. The +55.741962 result instead reveals the next distinct retail order and skips intervening arbitrage. This is a different information experiment, not merely a different fee adapter: the supplied side can be opposite to that of the next executable own trade. The report correctly discloses this difference, but never supplies the commissioned next-trade measurement, so this row cannot answer that part of the goal. Keep the retail-only result as a separate diagnostic and provide the requested event definition and measurement.","line":91,"path":"artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md","reproduction":"Decode reproduction.source_map_xzb85 in https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/19a9830766394638451d952df2f20e3a66d25059305d112fe0dd0ec47b7701f1 with base85 then lzma, and inspect probe/core.hpp (also patch.diff). Next contains only retail buy/size; peek advances a copy of the retail RNG until a nonempty retail batch, and the callback uses that payload even when arbitrage comes first. Concrete state: after the last own callback of a timestamp, let own reserves be X=100, Y=10000, bid=ask=0.0028; let the next timestamp's fair price be 101 and its first retail order be a sell of quote-notional size 20. The unchanged replica core.hpp runs own arbitrage before retail. The next own trade is therefore a trader buy of X=100-sqrt(1000000/(0.9972*101))=0.3566825471656614 (positive profit), whereas this oracle reports the later trader sell with size 20. Expected: the Round-1(d) payload identifies the next trade; actual: the measured payload identifies a later retail order. Report lines 91 and 129 acknowledge the mismatch, and no corrected result is linked.","severity":"medium","snippet":"The next-trade item actually reveals the next distinct **retail order**, before routing, rather than the next own fill or an arbitrage-inclusive next event. Its size is quote notional; a future sell's native-X size is not supplied. The next order may be in a later timestamp, with unobserved arbitrage in between. The replica copies the retail RNG to peek without consuming the live stream. The intervention also changes the fee returned at initialization, in addition to own swap callbacks. This initialization exposure and narrower event definition should be retained as differences from a strict swap-callback-only reading of the requested probe. [NT]","title":"Measure the requested next-trade oracle, rather than only the next retail order"}],"hash":"846aac6f4c997f4d203a448ee83c355c415b62108fc0ab109642cc9d9684a805","nodeId":"268a3974-85c2-4bf0-99fc-b2352c347f13","outcome":"completed","summary":"Recorded two medium findings in [.imd-findings.json](/home/imd/.identitymd/work/54e71fb4-ff05-42d0-b894-84265cc04515/268a3974-85c2-4bf0-99fc-b2352c347f13/.imd-findings.json):\n\n- Missing Round 2 capture measurements for two advancing sources.\n- Next-trade oracle measures the next retail order, skipping intervening arbitrage.\n\nHeadline calculations matched the supplied data.","treeHash":null,"usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1464192,"inputTokens":110665,"model":"gpt-6-astra","outputTokens":12865,"runtime":"codex","turns":5,"wallClockMs":476715}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":33336,"hash":"c4d47bff3b76a7ae2197336aed5263215f856d3a14b35fe4fe6f7a32a373dbe1","mediaType":"text/markdown","name":"report","path":"artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"2c736d2f8963f8a5","findings":[],"hash":"84cdadfb7492d8ec63bf974b4667ba18e4d2e8f627149a9785619a894e1bbd90","nodeId":"22eae3a8-8339-460c-b102-c55b7ec5fe0e","outcome":"completed","summary":"Wrote and checked [report.md](/opt/identitymd/worker3/.identitymd/work/54e71fb4-ff05-42d0-b894-84265cc04515/22eae3a8-8339-460c-b102-c55b7ec5fe0e/artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md).\n\nConclusion: no demonstrated route to 528.45; exact posterior headroom remains unresolved.\n\nAll eight results’ hashes and headline statistics verified. Only the requested report was created, left untracked.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":842112,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":2552292},"inputTokens":77428,"model":"gpt-6-astra","outputTokens":18718,"runtime":"codex","turns":5,"wallClockMs":518636}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":62970,"hash":"d9475f9a38366c72168c33423e2fbe84754883cb7312d9a47d22887c151511e7","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/batches/r2-exact-posterior/items/grid/result.json"},{"bytes":1284,"hash":"3fc920f51215a1af3b8ab415cf9ec26fbe60dcc89f83d50201b453f410f330a4","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/batches/r2-exact-posterior/items/grid/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"6ea221d017084baf","findings":[],"hash":"915dd5b3bc4c2fa53c19312f44fb73d1b343678da3b3b7a7f1e43fedb0bf04b7","nodeId":"9367028a-dee3-4673-8e61-8617ecf2536e","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created and validated [result.json](artifacts/goal/batches/r2-exact-posterior/items/grid/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/batches/r2-exact-posterior/items/grid/sources.json), including offline reproduction sources.\n\nApproximate arm A gained **+0.02014**, SE **0.01528**, and stopped at **128 seeds**. `advance=false`.\n\nThe requested exact-posterior requirement remains unmet; the result documents the missing likelihood and convergence work.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":3441920,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":7674190},"inputTokens":62152,"model":"gpt-6-astra","outputTokens":72215,"runtime":"codex","turns":14,"wallClockMs":2665472}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":12108,"hash":"c6abc96c6b96197893c0d899dc39c4bce7f04dfa3cc5a3805c21d732e94a5e22","mediaType":"application/json","name":"decisions","path":"artifacts/goal/episodes/001/decisions.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"2a2bbe7421f10a57","findings":[],"hash":"b0d9d8d2181e132fdb584ab707aa6b1ac5ecf7279a7138115c200e2b9371aa1f","nodeId":"fa385532-68ae-4767-a583-1e2780e6593e","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created and validated [decisions.json](/home/seat20/.identitymd/work/54e71fb4-ff05-42d0-b894-84265cc04515/fa385532-68ae-4767-a583-1e2780e6593e/artifacts/goal/episodes/001/decisions.json): six round-one studies across two batches, with round two gated on qualifying measured ceilings.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":632448,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":1941178},"inputTokens":67108,"model":"gpt-6-astra","outputTokens":12753,"runtime":"codex","turns":5,"wallClockMs":436390}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":63882,"hash":"19a9830766394638451d952df2f20e3a66d25059305d112fe0dd0ec47b7701f1","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/batches/r1-oracle-ceilings/items/next-trade/result.json"},{"bytes":2001,"hash":"2dd2a4c3a16f794f89a6edf9a9cc8d843faed4440d293560fe938b5265331452","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/batches/r1-oracle-ceilings/items/next-trade/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"97c4e9eb9244090f","findings":[],"hash":"b2af8f60f680597a9bd21b8fa59ea7c46446e4b5127f737c0e41678ff3d2d8ff","nodeId":"3f516ef7-da3e-405f-a3e3-aa8485f2e2e2","outcome":"completed","summary":"Removed the unsupported `credit` field from `sources.json`. Taylor’s attribution remains in its source quote and in `result.json`.\n\nBoth files parse, meet the size limits, and remain untracked. The sources schema passes validation; the research result is unchanged.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":2500375,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":4910845},"inputTokens":104382,"model":"gpt-6-astra","outputTokens":27333,"runtime":"codex","turns":11,"wallClockMs":964038}}],"verification":[{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"0f3776da2247d1ec7dcc66a72fc6bff9c83ed02af5138e345b8e6a2459973375","verifiedTreeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+f03a8d70"},{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"53a3eca3cbd565ae72ad74a6a488c9e6f490af418674f4f8d7c6900b1f39afca","verifiedTreeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+f03a8d70"},{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"55fa2485ce0a59a4a659917f40a3929670e2fedc55a5f7cc8844adf8ba2a01c1","verifiedTreeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+f03a8d70"},{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"56455286d9c23ec3ac2518c6c4fad561dd82f9f5285bd07fca633e5d53b523ef","verifiedTreeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+f03a8d70"},{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"593b87d4b7c6c58399e949815f79f5f6787b7b0837d2357ea4aa718dc4aac3b1","verifiedTreeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+f03a8d70"},{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"6f778a3255d834d77d350b8d832cb5475cfe8ecc5e69dddfc3d8431562f29c4f","verifiedTreeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+f03a8d70"},{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"717d3be2f92e36d2fb2a50f977e1031a293c5d5b83914dd470efbf3119eb6d92","verifiedTreeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+f03a8d70"},{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"82880d2a1251ba8670a5624ce429309ba496a575fbb491b4dda81ac7278a802c","verifiedTreeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+f03a8d70"},{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"84cdadfb7492d8ec63bf974b4667ba18e4d2e8f627149a9785619a894e1bbd90","verifiedTreeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+f03a8d70"},{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"915dd5b3bc4c2fa53c19312f44fb73d1b343678da3b3b7a7f1e43fedb0bf04b7","verifiedTreeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+f03a8d70"},{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"b0d9d8d2181e132fdb584ab707aa6b1ac5ecf7279a7138115c200e2b9371aa1f","verifiedTreeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+9b8047c1"},{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"b2af8f60f680597a9bd21b8fa59ea7c46446e4b5127f737c0e41678ff3d2d8ff","verifiedTreeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+f03a8d70"}]}