{"assessments":[],"deployments":[],"fuzz":[],"identity":{"adapter":"0xde152afb7db5373f34876e1499fbd893a82dd336","chainId":1,"collection":"0x0000ec93127baa929e58e97dd0095a2bfb38ec1d","registry":"0x8004a169fb4a3325136eb29fa0ceb6d2e539a432"},"interpretation":"Records acceptance and evidence. Neither completion nor an AI assessment establishes correctness, safety, or independent review.","jobId":"d41eafd7-8c3c-4a30-8bb5-945cdc38ee66","kind":"goal","nodes":[{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"eb8f5f83617fe14b024545cace108ec6d71e595ac36affe68f99494c18cc28dc","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.5"],"skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","subagents":4,"tools":[]},"key":"item_0001","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"cae6ed094ca8e7b231ad3a9ad2f6ca64769cba26e4df459c8615ae3133d89667","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.5"],"skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","subagents":4,"tools":[]},"key":"item_0002","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"72a9af20d5bf844936733115aa90547f09013f177f7e7418e7b2aa8f101f5c23","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.5"],"skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","subagents":4,"tools":[]},"key":"item_0003","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"9a02783e42a3994af0e87ae86325860bbd8daa01394cde27b691c20e17afdf9e","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.5"],"skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","subagents":4,"tools":[]},"key":"item_0004","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"3cfd2c098947d98fca96c21cae0dd18296a7c7b4b22a83aa18f8abeb2f739cd9","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.5"],"skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","subagents":4,"tools":[]},"key":"item_0005","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"7da95620b34f071ca720ef4fb11544da77833baf31305d1793f1742a51c754c3","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.5"],"skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","subagents":4,"tools":[]},"key":"item_0006","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"980598beb8519702cd7c3f79f237ecc78ace93ff877d291a86e4673ec5c96c81","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.5"],"skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","subagents":4,"tools":[]},"key":"item_0007","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"8a6ef84a8279a9c2bbdea5f5468097babde8907bb6209a11f328d938391663d3","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.5"],"skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","subagents":4,"tools":[]},"key":"item_0008","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"82f19e66b46d2beab83dd59754531daf1503c9c38c06a59c0605b8fb07e1632a","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.5"],"skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","subagents":4,"tools":[]},"key":"item_0009","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"b25f019ea51360721e4f11bbcface441404a9683e02d0fc7e2bea98a3f199333","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.5"],"skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","subagents":4,"tools":[]},"key":"item_0010","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"fa38dcf097c15a05f0dd2f8c7b7e0f55e1d3f7b845591befabb9e399b9bf0504","dependsOn":["writeup"],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.6"],"skillHash":"c95f23fc62b002f17a8bcbfb019fe6e29cf5cabad5405c40bb768df994283126","skillId":"goal-judge","tools":[]},"key":"judge","kind":"code","role":"review","skillHash":"c95f23fc62b002f17a8bcbfb019fe6e29cf5cabad5405c40bb768df994283126","skillId":"goal-judge","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"181f621f2656d15dc9d154f8eaebf13d7be03fefe07086fe664ef16d72430eb9","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.5"],"skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","subagents":4,"tools":[]},"key":"writeup","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","state":"accepted"}],"objective":"Combine what other seats found into one better strategy block for each kind of market, to take this network from 3rd toward 1st on Paradigm's Prediction Market challenge. It stands at 107.58; first is 109.93.\n\nThe challenge: a Python class quotes passive limit orders on one simulated binary market and is scored by its mean edge over 200 simulations. Simulator and rules: https://github.com/danrobinson/prediction-market-challenge\n\nThe base is a public JSON file whose \"code\" is the strategy: https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/41fa8829432f502a00c5302c0e2200b475c5c2e100a2a16b086aaab0ce62a395\nIt reads the rival market maker's spread at the first step as self.s, 1 to 4 ticks. Paradigm's 200 runs gave it 106.804593. Its parent, for checking a scorer: https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/40497298132dcc0ccc9f4c0672031c7eaae00ddcf8cf24983db989feeb3c5ca0\n\nTwo rounds of seats each changed the base only in runs of one spread. The network's operator entered the best file for each spread on Paradigm, so those four blocks are priced on its 200 runs:\n- Spread 1, +0.775951: a five times larger ask once ahead of the rival at tick 2 under 1 cent; front asks not cancelled. https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/08e3cde58c80ef5d44a5af6a896eeeef75abff9ff749e01d2ee329f1c68d2d60\n- Spread 2, +0.065331: one-cent stock target scaled by each run's flow. https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/90459c5fffa37760b92c6a3ee93523240927484a7c8fa36b5d12b55a37c08733\n- Spread 3, +0.172915: per-run retail rate and order size drive sizes and stock. https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/9acbf0cf247803e24c4e9e0ae987f830bc304be449b9981a837ed2d2ce7e62f2\n- Spread 4, +0.574129: per-run retail flow from own fills sizes asks and stock. https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/c80c33382f9c458ab6286dbc11fa761100a7e156dad7f3c12d74040b7c76578f\nA run has one spread, so gains in different spreads add exactly: the four together are worth 108.392919.\n\nGains in the same spread do not add. Other seats found more pieces for each spread, each a file of its own built on the base. Two pieces may do the same thing twice, or fight. This round turns the pieces for one spread into one block that beats the priced one.\n\nWhat Paradigm's runs taught. A gain on unseen runs is not a gain there: one file gained 0.95 a run on 2,035 unseen runs and lost 0.73 on Paradigm's. So each combined block is entered and priced before it is trusted.\n\nRules. Whatever a file adds must do nothing unless self.s is its spread, so runs of the other three spreads come out the same, run by run. A run's spread is fixed by its seed: sample_config(ChallengeConfig(), ParameterVariance(), seed=N).competitor.spread_ticks, in orderbook_pm_challenge/runner.py. Choose on the seeds of your spread among 20000 to 27999 and confirm on those among 80000 to 87999; earlier seats used 8000 to 15999 and 60000 to 67999, so leave those. Do not tune constants and do not make the strategy recognise particular seeds. Files are entered by the operator, by hand: do not look for a key.","parentJobId":null,"planHash":"7b11e9202c5effae76ba533722bcdf529bb6fa64f4e0c696f9ca062f7ddc35d1","previousHash":"0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000","projectId":"d41eafd7-8c3c-4a30-8bb5-945cdc38ee66","publication":{"commit":null,"deliveredAt":null,"repoUrl":null},"receiptIdentity":{"adapter":"0xde152afb7db5373f34876e1499fbd893a82dd336","chainId":1,"collection":"0x0000ec93127baa929e58e97dd0095a2bfb38ec1d","registry":"0x8004a169fb4a3325136eb29fa0ceb6d2e539a432"},"registry":"0xb6d0a187b050fa5bb0b87033a203f37becf4a775","research":[],"schema":"identitymd-work-v1","signals":[],"site":null,"snapshotHash":"d4c4a4b63c0ea16154415f257de68fa5b2d4d2a60c9009763c91a98466a09471","state":"completed","submissions":[{"artifacts":[{"bytes":17439,"hash":"867e95f3d8f9e04a2a72853c95eb5555ace48147f55a25af9de333bf9b77174c","mediaType":"text/markdown","name":"report","path":"artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"9df7d5d52e83c572","findings":[],"hash":"16526019270a151ecdd144344d68687cf6a63932af48418a9de4dd3737798296","nodeId":"cea47555-fb3a-49e1-a239-9e186ee59562","outcome":"completed","summary":"I've written the report to `artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md`; it is 17,439 bytes against the 24,000 limit. It has one table row per result and a section per spread. All figures are copied exactly from the ten results, whose SHA-256 hashes match the brief, and none of them is a Paradigm price.\n\n| Spread | Best combined block | Gain over the priced block (SE), local | Pieces that added | Pieces that overlapped or fought |\n|---|---|---|---|---|\n| 1 | c1-pairs: priced + s1-flow + q1-ahead + q1-bids | 1.235023171864296 (0.2813482609549018) on 2053 runs | s1-flow, q1-ahead, q1-bids | q1-ahead and q1-bids overlap; q1-life adds nothing once q1-ahead is in; s1-bids lost in three of four tests |\n| 2 | c2-queue and c2-all, same four pieces | 1.2413501721502518 and 1.237787021428701 on the same 993 runs | s2-queue, the priced stock rule, s2-bids | q2-bids adds only noise and swaps retail edge for arbitrage loss |\n| 3 | c3-all: priced flow + s3-clock (the only spread-3 result) | 0.43899751404466797 (0.06254419195348541) | s3-clock | s3-asks lost |\n| 4 | c4-all: all six pieces | 1.5376988909949292 (0.15877897548684153) on 1972 runs | s4-bids, s4-asks, s4-queue; s4-middle and q4-ahead help only on top of others | no clash measured; s4-asks and s4-queue add independently |\n\n- **Do they beat the priced blocks by more than their error?** Locally, yes: roughly 4.4, 4.9, 7 and 9.7 standard errors for spreads 1 to 4. Each still has to be entered on Paradigm before it is trusted.\n- **Spread 1 runner-up:** c1-asks gained 1.172168248613437 (SE 0.2650408952050327), but on a different half of the seeds, so it can't be ranked against c1-pairs.\n- **Spread 2 tie:** the two files are within error of each other.\n\nLimits the report states:\n- **Flagged sources:** the brief flags c3-all and all three spread-4 results for sources that didn't hold. Those source lists weren't among the files I received, so I couldn't check which claims they supported. The report says the spread-3 and spread-4 conclusions should be weighed with that in mind.\n- **No paired comparisons:** none of the results compares the competing spread-1 files, or the competing spread-4 files, on the same seeds.\n- **Small or unstated samples:** c1-all used only 150 confirming runs. c4-bids doesn't say how many it used.\n- **No projected score:** I gave none. Each local gain is per run of one spread, not a change in the 200-run mean, and the brief shows unseen-run gains don't carry over reliably.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":335556,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":763108},"inputTokens":16,"model":"claude-opus-5-5","outputTokens":13496,"runtime":"claude","turns":8,"wallClockMs":156557}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":21415,"hash":"732c2d1033f022b2af0cf1c39bc3377f0b40d900147ffa203c0a38c3e76b6c3f","mediaType":"text/markdown","name":"report","path":"artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"9ea940b94f2f7e92","findings":[],"hash":"181f621f2656d15dc9d154f8eaebf13d7be03fefe07086fe664ef16d72430eb9","nodeId":"cea47555-fb3a-49e1-a239-9e186ee59562","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created [report.md](artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md) with all ten retrievable result URLs, complete strategy hashes, and extraction instructions. Verified artifact integrity, Python syntax, table metrics, and the 24,000-byte limit.\n\nRecorded the finding as fixed in [.imd-responses.json](.imd-responses.json).","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":294528,"inputTokens":51623,"model":null,"outputTokens":6385,"runtime":"codex","turns":4,"wallClockMs":150090}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":27349,"hash":"6931c7d9c4f5a595b7da90da1651027f2a976de03ad1757d3c5f37b2bbc8bcd8","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/c1-bids/result.json"},{"bytes":3178,"hash":"294c06bd3e271a37d3ee6eb8145ffe3cb2773319aae764778bf771f1d81eba1a","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/c1-bids/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"868942acc8b75a51","findings":[],"hash":"3cfd2c098947d98fca96c21cae0dd18296a7c7b4b22a83aa18f8abeb2f739cd9","nodeId":"25404936-dd61-4640-9315-68fa08efb805","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created [result.json](/home/worker/.identitymd-6/work/d41eafd7-8c3c-4a30-8bb5-945cdc38ee66/25404936-dd61-4640-9315-68fa08efb805/artifacts/goal/items/c1-bids/result.json) and [sources.json](/home/worker/.identitymd-6/work/d41eafd7-8c3c-4a30-8bb5-945cdc38ee66/25404936-dd61-4640-9315-68fa08efb805/artifacts/goal/items/c1-bids/sources.json).\n\nLocal confirming gain versus priced: **0.4797752608084268** (SE **0.27459321069697257**). Zero failures; all 900 other-spread runs matched. Runtime and size limits passed. Both files are validated and untracked.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":11107072,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":3192220},"inputTokens":97203,"model":"gpt-6.1-sol","outputTokens":77640,"runtime":"codex","turns":80,"wallClockMs":5807097}},{"artifacts":[],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"65953ebb855c1b23","findings":[{"citation":"resolved","description":"The recommendation cannot be carried out from the supplied deliverable. None of these combined strategy files is attached or linked. The report provides only abbreviated code hashes, and the ten result.json files cited in Sources are also absent from both named locations. Its only external links retrieve the original base and the simulator, not the recommended combinations. Consequently the operator cannot obtain the Python files to price them, and the reported gains and unchanged-other-spread checks cannot be reproduced. Keep code out of the prose if desired, but supply the exact strategy artifacts and underlying results through attachments or retrievable URLs with complete hashes.","line":164,"path":"artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md","reproduction":"From the supplied root, run `rg --files --hidden --no-ignore artifacts .imd/reads/artifacts`: it lists only artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md and .imd/reads/artifacts/report, which are identical copies. Try the report's source convention for its first recommendation, artifacts/goal/items/c1-pairs/result.json: the file and artifacts/goal/items directory do not exist. Inspect the c1-pairs recommendation at line 49: its identifier is only f627ba06…32f7. Enumerating the report's URLs yields just the base artifact 41fa8829… and the public simulator repository. Expected: an obtainable strategy file for each recommended spread that can be entered by hand and checked against its complete hash. Actual: no candidate strategy or candidate artifact locator is supplied.","severity":"high","snippet":"- **Files to enter.** Enter one file per spread for pricing on Paradigm:\n  - Spread 1: c1-pairs. c1-asks is the runner-up.\n  - Spread 2: c2-queue or c2-all.\n  - Spread 3: c3-all.\n  - Spread 4: c4-all.","title":"Provide retrievable artifacts for the recommended strategy files"}],"hash":"56136e678b25fbb436914dca1005108699d6e2c66dc4624b7fd1df6c9503992c","nodeId":"de580ddc-4723-483f-9ed2-48afbbd64271","outcome":"completed","summary":"Recorded one high-severity finding in [.imd-findings.json](/home/imdworker/.identitymd/work/d41eafd7-8c3c-4a30-8bb5-945cdc38ee66/de580ddc-4723-483f-9ed2-48afbbd64271/.imd-findings.json): the recommended strategy files are neither attached nor retrievably linked, preventing submission and reproduction of the reported results.","treeHash":null,"usage":{"cachedInputTokens":273920,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":1075090},"inputTokens":43692,"model":"gpt-6-astra","outputTokens":7285,"runtime":"codex","turns":4,"wallClockMs":289674}},{"artifacts":[],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"93c37f17670e4d98","findings":[],"hash":"6b35070241112690994af0e990301f3d2fe0355401a541bfc7add8b81c182d79","nodeId":"2bd17de8-7367-4d39-a181-f793a5fbb2fd","outcome":"failed","summary":"required outputs are missing or invalid:\nartifacts/goal/items/c4-bids/result.json: ENOENT: no such file or directory, lstat '/home/imdworker2/.identitymd/work/d41eafd7-8c3c-4a30-8bb5-945cdc38ee66/2bd17de8-7367-4d39-a181-f793a5fbb2fd/artifacts'\nartifacts/goal/items/c4-bids/sources.json: ENOENT: no such file or directory, lstat '/home/imdworker2/.identitymd/work/d41eafd7-8c3c-4a30-8bb5-945cdc38ee66/2bd17de8-7367-4d39-a181-f793a5fbb2fd/artifacts'\n\nthe agent stopped (max_turns, 61 turns) without a final message","treeHash":null,"usage":{"cachedInputTokens":2948251,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":1183292},"inputTokens":118,"model":"claude-sonnet-5","outputTokens":22975,"runtime":"claude","turns":61,"wallClockMs":1944987}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":27761,"hash":"46b20a51dbb98abf4c9f7832f362dc8320c2c3288dae986a8863a7455bd57402","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/c4-all/result.json"},{"bytes":2751,"hash":"4f1e726384ff47a494c66cc7d858f9fd00fcadf75697b4c0ca2b5341ff8d267c","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/c4-all/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"85f8921773f3e9b5","findings":[],"hash":"72a9af20d5bf844936733115aa90547f09013f177f7e7418e7b2aa8f101f5c23","nodeId":"2e2f15de-7006-4fad-b340-daab71533dfd","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created and validated [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/c4-all/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/c4-all/sources.json).\n\nAll five pieces retained. On 1,972 confirming runs: **+1.5377 edge versus priced**, zero failures. All 900 other-spread runs matched exactly. Runtime was **0.27% slower**, within the limit.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":11965824,"inputTokens":91547,"model":null,"outputTokens":28097,"runtime":"codex","turns":86,"wallClockMs":5024665}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":29261,"hash":"7ef8d7351e6d049c5dddce5a84b0f0fda724156fa58bb057db3143a9679b32d0","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/c1-all/result.json"},{"bytes":124,"hash":"08edaf10a1d39965bb03fc7a552be7a2029974bfa6cf390608785a3be49ddaee","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/c1-all/sources.json"}],"attempt":2,"bundleHash":null,"device":"9749780078a23bd9","findings":[],"hash":"7da95620b34f071ca720ef4fb11544da77833baf31305d1793f1742a51c754c3","nodeId":"49c69457-0c51-4a9f-b3c9-394e0c415520","outcome":"completed","summary":"I combined the spread-1 pieces into one block. On the confirming runs it beats the priced block by **+1.09 a run (standard error 0.78)**. That is less than 1.4 standard errors, so it isn't firm until the operator prices it on Paradigm.\n\n**Step 1, scorer check.** The parent scored a mean edge of 108.63974289615767 on 600 runs from seed 1000, exactly what its author measured. That run took 8m40s because this machine effectively uses one core (`--workers 8` gave no speedup). Since it went over 5 minutes, I halved every run count. That includes the confirming runs and the timing runs, which are 150 instead of 200, and the other-spread check, which is 450 runs instead of 900.\n\n**Step 2, building the file.** Each addition was compared run by run with the file before it, on 150 spread-1 seeds from 20000:\n\n| File | What changed | Gain a run (standard error) | Kept? |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| A | flow estimate + priced block's front-of-queue rule, vs flow estimate alone | +2.68 (1.27) | yes |\n| B | A + bid lead (q1-bids) | +1.97 (1.28) | yes |\n| PB | priced block + bid lead | B beats it by +0.86 (0.46) | no, B is better |\n| C | B + life sizing (q1-life) | −0.02 (0.15) | no, it lost |\n| D | B + bid rule (s1-bids) | +0.09 (0.39) | yes, this is the final file |\n\nSo the final file is the flow estimate, the priced block's front-of-queue ask rule, the bid lead, and the bid rule. Everything it adds only acts when `self.s == 1`.\n\n**Step 3, confirming (150 spread-1 seeds from 80000).**\n- **Mean edge:** 42.32 a run, with no failures.\n- **Against the base:** +3.95 (standard error 1.51). That splits as +1.75 retail and +2.20 arb.\n- **Other spreads:** 450 runs of spreads 2–4 (150 each) gave the same result as the base on every run.\n- **Speed:** 107.1 s against 100.5 s for the base over 150 runs, so 6.6% slower, inside the 10% limit.\n\n**Not done:**\n- q1-ahead was not added on its own, beyond the front rule the priced block already has. Its safer-tick keep logic and 15000 cap were not tested; the result's \"next\" suggests trying them on top of this file.\n- The only source listed is the simulator repository, quoted by its name. Everything else came from the artifact files and my own runs.\n\nBoth files parse and are under the size limits: `artifacts/goal/items/c1-all/result.json` and `artifacts/goal/items/c1-all/sources.json`. The working files are in `.cache/`. `git status` also lists untracked dotfiles and editor folders in the repository root (`.bashrc`, `.vscode`, `.claude/` and others). I didn't create or touch them, but they sit outside the allowed paths, so check them before submission.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":920304,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":740419},"inputTokens":53,"model":"claude-opus-5-5","outputTokens":12937,"runtime":"claude","turns":29,"wallClockMs":2875606}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":32111,"hash":"4b7801cabe5516bfab4948a8a96285db64e6da008377006f5f03852a019a0ce3","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/c4-pairs/result.json"},{"bytes":2569,"hash":"8a71ce759623fd2752428cd9a0cc0799222b6604517d153cf8feb479a1a1085d","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/c4-pairs/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"936f55eacc3363d3","findings":[],"hash":"82f19e66b46d2beab83dd59754531daf1503c9c38c06a59c0605b8fb07e1632a","nodeId":"ebee69b0-4a8c-467c-b1ef-e55c1d48a74f","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created [result.json](/home/imd19/.identitymd/work/d41eafd7-8c3c-4a30-8bb5-945cdc38ee66/ebee69b0-4a8c-467c-b1ef-e55c1d48a74f/artifacts/goal/items/c4-pairs/result.json) and [sources.json](/home/imd19/.identitymd/work/d41eafd7-8c3c-4a30-8bb5-945cdc38ee66/ebee69b0-4a8c-467c-b1ef-e55c1d48a74f/artifacts/goal/items/c4-pairs/sources.json).\n\nLocal holdout gain over priced: **1.093612110448124** per spread-4 run, with zero failures. All 900 other-spread runs matched exactly. Runtime, size, schema, hash, and source checks passed.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":5387648,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":8673778},"inputTokens":75618,"model":"gpt-6-astra","outputTokens":50599,"runtime":"codex","turns":40,"wallClockMs":3676985}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":25466,"hash":"fbaba62304b28380cd79b2de69f597deba95429638ed18a2bf5391077d025558","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/c2-queue/result.json"},{"bytes":5324,"hash":"3d25e4541618463ccbefca1f5a1ef9b8c49ad3b7cf32ba666960f87495d881c8","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/c2-queue/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"93678b4d542094a9","findings":[],"hash":"8a6ef84a8279a9c2bbdea5f5468097babde8907bb6209a11f328d938391663d3","nodeId":"7bd7d339-f781-4a4c-a6e2-7d1d1bc52474","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/c2-queue/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/c2-queue/sources.json).\n\nLocal confirmation gained **+1.24135/run versus priced** (SE 0.25354), with zero failures. All 450 other-spread runs matched base exactly. Runtime was 2.1% slower, within the limit. JSON, hash, size, sources, and original-simulator replay checks passed.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":30403328,"inputTokens":121394,"model":null,"outputTokens":91864,"runtime":"codex","turns":56,"wallClockMs":6013355}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":29821,"hash":"f7304b601a970104247074052cd75db749edc8d9e989fcce2a67c98bdcdc44bd","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/c1-pairs/result.json"},{"bytes":1227,"hash":"f2c91849240420993b253dc4964b334387a767cc461ac9ac5135a2be10918ec3","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/c1-pairs/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"934ef01306a3cc89","findings":[],"hash":"980598beb8519702cd7c3f79f237ecc78ace93ff877d291a86e4673ec5c96c81","nodeId":"ea0f87d2-2884-46c5-bd1c-03fb24898e70","outcome":"completed","summary":"I combined the spread-1 pieces into one file, and on the confirming runs it beats the priced block by **+1.235 a run (SE 0.281)**. The file holds the priced block plus s1-flow, q1-ahead and q1-bids. The result is in `artifacts/goal/items/c1-pairs/result.json` and the sources in `sources.json`; both parse.\n\n**Scorer check:** the parent scored 108.63974289615767 on 600 runs from seed 1000, the same as its author's figure. `--workers 4` was refused here: the sandbox blocked the process pool with a socket permission error. So I ran it serially, which took 3m09s. That is under 5 minutes, so I did not halve any run counts. For the later runs I used my own 4-process pool on the simulator's own engine. With every piece switched off, the combined file matched the priced block run for run on 150 runs.\n\n**Each piece added to the priced block (2016 choosing runs of spread 1, seeds 20000–27999):**\n\n| Piece | Gain a run vs priced | SE |\n|---|---|---|\n| s1-flow | +1.092 | 0.29 |\n| q1-ahead | +0.966 | 0.20 |\n| q1-bids | +0.698 | 0.07 |\n| q1-life | −0.008 | 0.07 |\n| s1-bids | −0.082 | 0.83 |\n\n**Building it up, each step measured against the file before it:**\n- **+ s1-flow + q1-ahead:** +0.575 over priced + s1-flow, so I kept it.\n- **+ q1-bids:** +0.0006 (SE 0.12). That is noise: q1-ahead already keeps most of the same bids. I kept it because it didn't lose, and froze this three-piece file. It is +1.668 over the priced block on the choosing runs.\n- **+ q1-life:** +0.00035, but 2 runs gained and 8 lost, so I left it out.\n- **s1-bids:** never added, since its pair lost.\n\n**Frozen file on the confirming runs (2053 runs of spread 1, seeds 80000–87999):**\n- Mean edge 35.0813 (retail 58.1218, arb −23.0405), no failures.\n- Against the base: +2.541 a run (SE 0.392).\n- Against the priced block: +1.235 a run (SE 0.281).\n- On 300 runs each of spreads 2, 3 and 4, every result matches the base exactly.\n- 200 runs in one process took 66.3 s against the base's 63.8 s, 3.9% slower, inside the 10% limit. The code is under 50,000 bytes.\n\nThe +1.235 is from local runs only. The brief notes one file that gained 0.95 a run on unseen runs and lost 0.73 on Paradigm's, so this one needs to be entered and priced before it is trusted. The next thing to try is keeping only one of the two rules that both enlarge the tick-2 ask under 1 cent: the priced block's 5× ask and q1-ahead's 15000 cap.\n\n`git status` lists untracked dotfiles in the repo root (`.bashrc`, `.gitmodules`, `.claude/` and others). I didn't create them and left them alone. My working files are all under `.cache/`.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1627393,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":1313646},"inputTokens":63,"model":"claude-opus-5-5","outputTokens":24341,"runtime":"claude","turns":35,"wallClockMs":2593611}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":22451,"hash":"bc97804003250f22e8b605ca973dcd8525620e1feac81000149d17cb6af1c08f","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/c3-all/result.json"},{"bytes":2396,"hash":"76bc87829e17e85164622f8465b12e60a07f3bf628ba513bfaec73a5e0a514db","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/c3-all/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"8687b633e8d497b9","findings":[],"hash":"9a02783e42a3994af0e87ae86325860bbd8daa01394cde27b691c20e17afdf9e","nodeId":"da027945-cad8-4454-a29e-ef286a6dd964","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/c3-all/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/c3-all/sources.json).\n\nKept flow + clock; rejected front-ask. On 994 confirming runs, local gain versus priced flow was **+0.4390** (SE **0.0625**), with zero failures. All 450 other-spread runs matched exactly. Runtime increased 1.0%.\n\nSchema, size, hash, and source-quote checks passed.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":9672064,"inputTokens":78955,"model":null,"outputTokens":41178,"runtime":"codex","turns":69,"wallClockMs":4505932}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":26703,"hash":"e6482970a6b03e462c163c97d382b5b94f13a3451ad18bf4dfcfffae7f763829","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/c4-bids/result.json"},{"bytes":3253,"hash":"d1084cf241211e352a449c94aab8700c624414774739d436d6f6800244c5a3bd","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/c4-bids/sources.json"}],"attempt":2,"bundleHash":null,"device":"943650541094145e","findings":[],"hash":"b25f019ea51360721e4f11bbcface441404a9683e02d0fc7e2bea98a3f199333","nodeId":"2bd17de8-7367-4d39-a181-f793a5fbb2fd","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/c4-bids/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/c4-bids/sources.json).\n\nConfirmation: **+1.2972 edge versus priced**, zero failures. All 900 other-spread runs matched exactly. Runtime passed; only the two required files remain.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":2288000,"inputTokens":85442,"model":null,"outputTokens":20180,"runtime":"codex","turns":10,"wallClockMs":3458184}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":39627,"hash":"37b6dccc9781fa12cb46570e5c0cbda865dc673ea687aabe022cef3cba3d8518","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/c2-all/result.json"},{"bytes":2036,"hash":"fa53d01c4cee56ecf3a334a7dc1f59b351e0199e3144de9f1313d9eaceb9ab34","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/c2-all/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"84a29c6575331b77","findings":[],"hash":"cae6ed094ca8e7b231ad3a9ad2f6ca64769cba26e4df459c8615ae3133d89667","nodeId":"911cdab0-e325-4788-9719-32b28eac571b","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created and validated `result.json` and `sources.json` under `artifacts/goal/items/c2-all/`, left untracked.\n\n- All four pieces retained.\n- Holdout gain over priced: **+1.23779**, SE **0.25325**.\n- Zero failures; all 450 other-spread runs identical.\n- Runtime: **0.135% slower**, within limit.\n- Run counts halved as instructed after the slow scorer check.\n- All nine source quotes verified.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":5599104,"inputTokens":67588,"model":null,"outputTokens":17529,"runtime":"codex","turns":33,"wallClockMs":2078251}},{"artifacts":[],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"970da38f1d564250","findings":[],"hash":"e242324a2ff8902a4e6f81048827b3fad78c2894e1fa1ed96f9e5254478eac8b","nodeId":"49c69457-0c51-4a9f-b3c9-394e0c415520","outcome":"failed","summary":"required outputs are missing or invalid:\nartifacts/goal/items/c1-all/result.json: ENOENT: no such file or directory, lstat '/home/imdworker6/.identitymd/work/d41eafd7-8c3c-4a30-8bb5-945cdc38ee66/49c69457-0c51-4a9f-b3c9-394e0c415520/artifacts/goal/items/c1-all/result.json'\nartifacts/goal/items/c1-all/sources.json: ENOENT: no such file or directory, lstat '/home/imdworker6/.identitymd/work/d41eafd7-8c3c-4a30-8bb5-945cdc38ee66/49c69457-0c51-4a9f-b3c9-394e0c415520/artifacts/goal/items/c1-all/sources.json'\n\nthe agent stopped (max_turns, 61 turns) without a final message","treeHash":null,"usage":{"cachedInputTokens":4081264,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":1649916},"inputTokens":118,"model":"claude-sonnet-5","outputTokens":39064,"runtime":"claude","turns":61,"wallClockMs":1787712}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":28209,"hash":"de522a500fedf4a446fa3ef2f2f9fb67de2d73b8055791ed305cb2b7af6b9e91","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/c1-asks/result.json"},{"bytes":2594,"hash":"0f80dfb5cd85a2d9871c2c211d12882572c08ea7c3cd8ac0ec1aa95f3e458e0a","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/c1-asks/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"83ee8122d8d8744c","findings":[],"hash":"eb8f5f83617fe14b024545cace108ec6d71e595ac36affe68f99494c18cc28dc","nodeId":"a12804f9-8e05-482f-bd32-512aa015ea27","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/c1-asks/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/c1-asks/sources.json).\n\nConfirmed +1.172168 versus priced across 1,027 runs (SE 0.265041), zero failures, 450 identical other-spread runs, and 6.34% slower runtime. Counts were halved under the calibration rule. All final validations passed.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":10523776,"inputTokens":87975,"model":null,"outputTokens":29452,"runtime":"codex","turns":44,"wallClockMs":2835765}},{"artifacts":[],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"c5a27b25fa718879","findings":[],"hash":"fa38dcf097c15a05f0dd2f8c7b7e0f55e1d3f7b845591befabb9e399b9bf0504","nodeId":"de580ddc-4723-483f-9ed2-48afbbd64271","outcome":"completed","summary":"The previous high-severity finding is fixed. All ten artifact URLs returned HTTP 200; JSON and extracted-code hashes matched the report, and every strategy parsed as Python. The recommended strategies and supporting results are retrievable.\n\nNo findings remain. Simulation results were not rerun.\n\nSaved `{\"findings\":[]}` to [.imd-findings.json](/home/seat/.identitymd/work/d41eafd7-8c3c-4a30-8bb5-945cdc38ee66/de580ddc-4723-483f-9ed2-48afbbd64271/.imd-findings.json).","treeHash":null,"usage":{"cachedInputTokens":35328,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":385068},"inputTokens":25739,"model":"gpt-6-astra","outputTokens":1847,"runtime":"codex","turns":2,"wallClockMs":82125}}],"verification":[{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"16526019270a151ecdd144344d68687cf6a63932af48418a9de4dd3737798296","verifiedTreeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+18543036"},{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"181f621f2656d15dc9d154f8eaebf13d7be03fefe07086fe664ef16d72430eb9","verifiedTreeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+18543036"},{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"3cfd2c098947d98fca96c21cae0dd18296a7c7b4b22a83aa18f8abeb2f739cd9","verifiedTreeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+18543036"},{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"72a9af20d5bf844936733115aa90547f09013f177f7e7418e7b2aa8f101f5c23","verifiedTreeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+18543036"},{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"7da95620b34f071ca720ef4fb11544da77833baf31305d1793f1742a51c754c3","verifiedTreeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+18543036"},{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"82f19e66b46d2beab83dd59754531daf1503c9c38c06a59c0605b8fb07e1632a","verifiedTreeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+18543036"},{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"8a6ef84a8279a9c2bbdea5f5468097babde8907bb6209a11f328d938391663d3","verifiedTreeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+18543036"},{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"980598beb8519702cd7c3f79f237ecc78ace93ff877d291a86e4673ec5c96c81","verifiedTreeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+18543036"},{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"9a02783e42a3994af0e87ae86325860bbd8daa01394cde27b691c20e17afdf9e","verifiedTreeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+18543036"},{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"b25f019ea51360721e4f11bbcface441404a9683e02d0fc7e2bea98a3f199333","verifiedTreeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+18543036"},{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"cae6ed094ca8e7b231ad3a9ad2f6ca64769cba26e4df459c8615ae3133d89667","verifiedTreeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+18543036"},{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"eb8f5f83617fe14b024545cace108ec6d71e595ac36affe68f99494c18cc28dc","verifiedTreeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+18543036"}]}