{"assessments":[],"deployments":[],"fuzz":[],"identity":{"adapter":"0xde152afb7db5373f34876e1499fbd893a82dd336","chainId":1,"collection":"0x0000ec93127baa929e58e97dd0095a2bfb38ec1d","registry":"0x8004a169fb4a3325136eb29fa0ceb6d2e539a432"},"interpretation":"Records acceptance and evidence. Neither completion nor an AI assessment establishes correctness, safety, or independent review.","jobId":"06c17940-9c5c-4a75-82b1-faaf05ab09a6","kind":"shape:chain","nodes":[{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"120cccc15abcec2ca24a62368f523584a087c82000210e68924913f91c222bc7","dependsOn":["refine_project"],"execution":{"network":false,"profile":"foundry","requires":[],"skillHash":"6b037a7b6601e883cf8a906c1520c0624817d42d8310b65c2f43679204608af3","skillId":"adversarial-review","tools":[]},"key":"adversarial_review","kind":"code","role":"review","skillHash":"6b037a7b6601e883cf8a906c1520c0624817d42d8310b65c2f43679204608af3","skillId":"adversarial-review","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"213b8532a6afcb61774fbfef063b351c4cdd8ccde9fd14d1d9b69049ae284254","dependsOn":["refine_project","adversarial_review","refine_project_2"],"execution":{"network":false,"profile":"foundry","requires":[],"skillHash":"6b037a7b6601e883cf8a906c1520c0624817d42d8310b65c2f43679204608af3","skillId":"adversarial-review","tools":[]},"key":"adversarial_review_2","kind":"code","role":"review","skillHash":"6b037a7b6601e883cf8a906c1520c0624817d42d8310b65c2f43679204608af3","skillId":"adversarial-review","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"d70674b856a69e561ac8df5901a74ccffac5d869196ce3958d941bc047ef69a8","dependsOn":["refine_project_3"],"execution":{"mustProduce":["dist/index.html"],"network":true,"optionalTools":["browser"],"profile":"none","requires":["network"],"skillHash":"a60bc8b42446c13d993341179fe13c712a5addb118fc532fb2d15e71f912efc8","skillId":"build-website","tools":[]},"key":"build_website","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"a60bc8b42446c13d993341179fe13c712a5addb118fc532fb2d15e71f912efc8","skillId":"build-website","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"4946f09fce8a54007ef0c23071c5d40c9df8210cb858929c908ec47b55994b3b","dependsOn":["refine_project","refine_project_2","refine_project_3","build_website"],"execution":{"network":true,"optionalTools":["browser"],"profile":"none","requires":["network"],"skillHash":"fd33b6741366d364a55a4c0ba2bc4f5d329cec0b62f27a83289dc5b30ab03575","skillId":"design-critic","tools":[]},"key":"design_critic","kind":"code","role":"review","skillHash":"fd33b6741366d364a55a4c0ba2bc4f5d329cec0b62f27a83289dc5b30ab03575","skillId":"design-critic","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"c5a2201ab725cc3426673ac17f5d5ff39b993f4c3e5c42816c53779943f0cd12","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":false,"profile":"none","requires":[],"skillHash":"99cccc7e3e2e1b515c66d54cc6d4bd9832d528aaf0ec0ba48c87a4182db4b7ca","skillId":"refine-project","tools":[]},"key":"refine_project","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"99cccc7e3e2e1b515c66d54cc6d4bd9832d528aaf0ec0ba48c87a4182db4b7ca","skillId":"refine-project","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"d9dd5d206804e503acb5788b50fa585da748f4c6efd4b35e9ea65e65191f07fd","dependsOn":["adversarial_review"],"execution":{"network":false,"profile":"none","requires":[],"skillHash":"99cccc7e3e2e1b515c66d54cc6d4bd9832d528aaf0ec0ba48c87a4182db4b7ca","skillId":"refine-project","tools":[]},"key":"refine_project_2","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"99cccc7e3e2e1b515c66d54cc6d4bd9832d528aaf0ec0ba48c87a4182db4b7ca","skillId":"refine-project","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"7f27493691033ed487717876b6b7210ade16d34715f808ee21f81a539adefe7a","dependsOn":["adversarial_review_2"],"execution":{"network":false,"profile":"none","requires":[],"skillHash":"99cccc7e3e2e1b515c66d54cc6d4bd9832d528aaf0ec0ba48c87a4182db4b7ca","skillId":"refine-project","tools":[]},"key":"refine_project_3","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"99cccc7e3e2e1b515c66d54cc6d4bd9832d528aaf0ec0ba48c87a4182db4b7ca","skillId":"refine-project","state":"accepted"}],"objective":"Version 3 of the ETH indicator lab: an open, aggressive EDGE SEARCH. Continue this project and keep the v1/v2 code, scorer, data cache, tests and widget. v1 and v2 found no standalone entry/exit rule that beats costs at 50x on held-out data (they mostly 'won' by trading less). Your job now: find the strongest real, cost-beating edge for trading ETH perpetuals you can, and prove it, or prove convincingly that none exists in this design space. You have wide freedom. Experiment a lot, follow the evidence, and be creative, but never fool yourself.\n\nFREEDOMS (all allowed, combine freely):\n- Any timeframe 1m to 4h for signals, any holding period from minutes up to 2 days, and multi-timeframe stacks.\n- Execution: maker (post-only limit) entries and/or exits as well as taker. Model maker fills conservatively: a fill only if price trades THROUGH the limit by at least 1 tick, plus an adverse-selection check (report the fill rate and the returns of missed fills). Fees: taker 0.045%, maker 0.015% per side. Slippage 1 bp on taker fills.\n- Leverage 1x to 50x as a decision variable (report results at 50x, 20x and 10x), with position sizing by volatility/regime and liquidation modelled.\n- Features: everything in v1/v2 (layered BB, RSI and RSI bands, sigma positions, breaches, the midline at 70/30, band width, SuperTrend, MACD, Stochastic, volume, EMA ribbon, range box) plus anything you can compute from public data with real history: Binance USD-M public klines (taker-buy volume per bar; https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/klines or data.binance.vision archives), funding-rate history (OKX /api/v5/public/funding-rate-history, Binance /fapi/v1/fundingRate), BTC/ETH relative strength, time-of-day/weekday/session effects, volatility regimes, cross-exchange basis, and order-flow imbalance from taker volume. Only use a data source if it has enough history; state the coverage.\n- Model families: rules, confluence scores, regime switching, simple ML (logistic regression or gradient-boosted trees, with strict time-ordered CV and purging/embargo), meta-labelling of base signals, and exit/stop optimisation (ATR, time, trailing, partial take-profits, breach re-entry). Long-only, short-only and both directions are fine.\n\nANTI-OVERFIT RULES (non-negotiable):\n1) Nested walk-forward: select on earlier folds only, score on the next fold, purge overlapping trades, 1-day embargo.\n2) The v1 and v2 holdouts are burned. Use them only as development data and say so.\n3) New untouched final checks, opened once after freezing: (a) every ETH bar newer than the v2 cache, (b) SOL-USDT-SWAP and BTC-USDT-SWAP over their full periods, (c) a 2024 ETH segment you never touched during search (fetch and seal it first; if you cannot reach that history, say so and seal a different untouched era).\n4) Count every config ever tried (v1+v2+v3) in a deflated Sharpe and a White reality check / SPA against FLAT (not trading).\n5) Require at least 100 trades on the final checks for any edge claim, plus stability across neighbouring parameters, folds and symbols.\n6) Report the strongest result even if negative, the full distribution of results, and what killed each promising idea.","parentJobId":"b4c9c797-7dd1-4581-9eaf-ef7a7d8b9dc1","planHash":"64b16d74b34fc31e2d871067fcc6e38d0775887df97eb2edf068928ae478591b","previousHash":"0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000","projectId":"17a99c94-8968-4e19-96f8-22966214ad53","publication":{"commit":null,"deliveredAt":null,"repoUrl":null},"receiptIdentity":{"adapter":"0xde152afb7db5373f34876e1499fbd893a82dd336","chainId":1,"collection":"0x0000ec93127baa929e58e97dd0095a2bfb38ec1d","registry":"0x8004a169fb4a3325136eb29fa0ceb6d2e539a432"},"registry":"0xb6d0a187b050fa5bb0b87033a203f37becf4a775","research":[],"schema":"identitymd-work-v1","signals":[{"agentId":"51135","feedbackHash":"5e1c1055e5bfaf37bd48d4a998a7eff8e03debdf319482dbb27554d21d64b898","nodeKey":"adversarial_review","submissionHash":"120cccc15abcec2ca24a62368f523584a087c82000210e68924913f91c222bc7","tag1":"review:submission","tag2":"acceptance-v2","value":1},{"agentId":"51104","feedbackHash":"2f9751febc0a98555720534f0bffc49516b6c41a0c09560f4d06a39817ff0697","nodeKey":"adversarial_review","submissionHash":"aabdd1839af9dc2c139c57e0aaf7ab5b68c54589909c9176983af021238f5d66","tag1":"review:submission","tag2":"acceptance-v2","value":1},{"agentId":"53929","feedbackHash":"83ca91effd31fe14e3b6cbca8f2a49d1b80c7c29a6cbf9a975f3482bf233948c","nodeKey":"adversarial_review_2","submissionHash":"213b8532a6afcb61774fbfef063b351c4cdd8ccde9fd14d1d9b69049ae284254","tag1":"review:submission","tag2":"acceptance-v2","value":1},{"agentId":"51441","feedbackHash":"c46cd30ed76719c73f69145d7811fa09e9abc0cf7bbb091ce9cff03056c2ac30","nodeKey":"adversarial_review_2","submissionHash":"c9ad557766f3248a1bbd1ea25216c0aad06d253c6d62e3d35d3eed3f7ffe6192","tag1":"review:submission","tag2":"acceptance-v2","value":1},{"agentId":"51329","feedbackHash":"f815974a9ec1855aa048482b5319e6cea83c39e8e83295e130ef96db1e64f7eb","nodeKey":"build_website","submissionHash":"a756ae0d4ecba09ebd20bb15f6e0146e8a0662e860618d2b5ce48e7e74f34910","tag1":"verification:structural","tag2":"acceptance-v2","value":1},{"agentId":"51296","feedbackHash":"c1872485d2d13eadaff50c8931a4150ae8e6a76b94294c1c136708e702d91363","nodeKey":"build_website","submissionHash":"d70674b856a69e561ac8df5901a74ccffac5d869196ce3958d941bc047ef69a8","tag1":"verification:structural","tag2":"acceptance-v2","value":1},{"agentId":"51075","feedbackHash":"3d16dbdb82a6eedf7e8fded348d0b3fc6d0e2a41aa3fabd000b95ac6b840a2e4","nodeKey":"design_critic","submissionHash":"a1e3dfa29478ab9f61f26737e773583f4f67660df5f361183609c68a4e3edecb","tag1":"review:submission","tag2":"acceptance-v2","value":1},{"agentId":"50954","feedbackHash":"c8ca939cd5c1e588cfd61e35099c06e1f135198ad44569b1c9711f3694e0d76e","nodeKey":"design_critic","submissionHash":"4946f09fce8a54007ef0c23071c5d40c9df8210cb858929c908ec47b55994b3b","tag1":"review:submission","tag2":"acceptance-v2","value":1},{"agentId":"51152","feedbackHash":"95c2d8722e07c2bed23b253e4d16d5125c644c3e52ebe46397be386fd5029193","nodeKey":"refine_project","submissionHash":"820337bc971aa0e1803bc74776779589072c8a1592e4d659d0a8c4c4263e6d1c","tag1":"verification:structural","tag2":"acceptance-v2","value":1},{"agentId":"52375","feedbackHash":"87a25ee34736143bb759fa4f5d59de6262e5b537b4e29001e992a276638c187e","nodeKey":"refine_project","submissionHash":"c5a2201ab725cc3426673ac17f5d5ff39b993f4c3e5c42816c53779943f0cd12","tag1":"verification:structural","tag2":"acceptance-v2","value":1},{"agentId":"52653","feedbackHash":"6c530293aed38ce379ffcd005da0c114314382ee747b376930f7c76f0f9bcf19","nodeKey":"refine_project_2","submissionHash":"e310b2a768b8807f54201a8c853debb36f28a626faba8c08efd7bd20d60e0fdc","tag1":"verification:structural","tag2":"acceptance-v2","value":1},{"agentId":"52241","feedbackHash":"9e55250aa5dc6870b7bebec00a4c6ed5a9ce9da54e7d1e47004f00bc13e90e8e","nodeKey":"refine_project_2","submissionHash":"d9dd5d206804e503acb5788b50fa585da748f4c6efd4b35e9ea65e65191f07fd","tag1":"verification:structural","tag2":"acceptance-v2","value":1},{"agentId":"52592","feedbackHash":"298fb51fa0e3a05e13582b03d0b3a444635f23da611a72812391d584d1893cc9","nodeKey":"refine_project_3","submissionHash":"7f27493691033ed487717876b6b7210ade16d34715f808ee21f81a539adefe7a","tag1":"verification:structural","tag2":"acceptance-v2","value":1}],"site":null,"snapshotHash":"1ee61ed6ccf03e40d05f5df8fd8fa91d0c5846125d76e923e33324750c0e467c","state":"completed","submissions":[{"artifacts":[],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"c872aaeb2e58b080","findings":[{"citation":"resolved","description":"The eligibility guard added for the EMA200 warm-up finding covers only HIGHER_FAMILIES, ML_FAMILIES and the forward window. Finalist #10 6656a86c82bd55ce (flow_follow, 240m, taker, rule: sign(flow) if flow is not None and abs(flow)>.2 and sign(flow)==trend) needs Binance taker-buy flow. final_v3 passes an empty flow tuple for BTC and SOL (this line), and for eth_2024 it passes the ETH klines whose coverage is 1780272000000..1793490900000 (June-Oct 2026) while the segment is 1704067200000..1706745540000 (Jan 2024), so features_v3 sets flow=None on every bar and F.events returns []. eligibility() nevertheless returns status 'eligible' with scoring_period set, so the one-shot output carries metrics {n:0, net_equity_pct_per_day:0.0, daily_sharpe:0.0}, fill_rate 0.0 for this finalist on three of the four checks (the fourth, eth_new, is void by window). That is the silent zero the author's answer to finding d42011fb says can no longer occur ('Invalid rows have status not_scored and null metrics, never a silent zero or partial strategy'). summary.json final_check_limitations does not mention it. Consequence: flow_follow has no valid final check at all, would be recorded in the result distribution as a measured FLAT outcome, and the unrepeatable eth_2024 opening is spent for it although the missing input (Binance ETHUSDT 5m klines for 2024-01) is a public archive that could be fetched and sealed before opening.","line":84,"path":"lab/final_v3.py","reproduction":"No sealed OHLC needed. (1) On development data: b=F.complete_resample(raw,240); len(F.events(b,F.features(b,high,aux['klines'],aux['funding']),'flow_follow',None)) == 125, but len(F.events(b,F.features(b,high,(),()),'flow_follow',None)) == 0. (2) Final.eligibility(config_of_6656a86c82bd55ce, high, 1780617600000, 1794441600000, frozen['logistic_models']['240']) returns {'status':'eligible','reasons':[],'scoring_period':[1780617600000,1794441600000]}; same with the eth_2024 calendar (1704067200000, 1706745600000) and a 186-bar higher series. (3) Running Final.main() with LOCK/SEAL/check_frozen/dump patched as in tests/test_final_v3.py, a synthetic 44,640-minute random walk starting at 1704067200000 used for eth_2024/btc_full/sol_full, the real A.binance() aux and finalists [rsi_fade b1843a560b4db53e, flow_follow 6656a86c82bd55ce]: output rows for flow_follow on eth_2024, btc_full and sol_full are validity.status='eligible', reasons=[], metrics n=0, net_equity_pct_per_day=0.0, fill_rate=0.0 (rsi_fade on the same data trades, n=1). Expected: status 'not_scored' with a reason such as missing_flow_input and null metrics (or fetch and seal matching Binance flow before opening). Actual: eligible with zero metrics.","severity":"medium","snippet":"                fs=F.features(b,high,aux['klines'] if name.startswith('eth') else (),","title":"Residual of the structural-silence fix: flow_follow finalist is 'eligible' on eth_2024, btc_full and sol_full with no taker-flow input and is reported as a measured zero-trade result"}],"hash":"120cccc15abcec2ca24a62368f523584a087c82000210e68924913f91c222bc7","nodeId":"ebc6623f-4a67-4493-a3c6-d13402e04c11","outcome":"completed","summary":"All seven findings from my first review are settled, and one residual defect of the same kind as the first high finding remains, rated medium. The review is in `artifacts/review_v3a.md` and the finding is in `.imd-findings.json`. No tracked file was changed, no sealed final data was opened, and the final-opening lock was not created.\n\n## Earlier findings\n\n| Finding | Status | How I checked |\n|---|---|---|\n| [high] 2024 segment cannot warm the 4h EMA200 | Fixed | With 186 4h bars, the three trend-dependent finalists return `not_scored`; 200 bars are rejected and 201 accepted. |\n| [high] Frozen logistic trained over the BTC/SOL calendar | Fixed | `logistic` and `meta_fade` are refused on the 2024 segment and on BTC/SOL; frozen code, seal and grid hashes match the tree. |\n| [medium] Maker fills on a 0.01 trade-through | Fixed (disclosed) | I recomputed all 12 sensitivity rows and they match the stored ones exactly; the trial counts reconcile (3,960 v3 trials, 4,872 White vectors, 5,880 DSR arms). |\n| [medium] 110-minute post-v2 seal | Fixed (declared void) | All ten finalists return `not_scored` there; the task's check (a) stays unmet, and the report now says so. |\n| [low] In-sample \"positive outer folds\" | Fixed | Fields are renamed and labelled as in-sample. |\n| [low] Top-1 concentration | Fixed (disclosed) | My replay gives +13.79% total, 55% of it in three trades, six liquidations — same as the report. |\n| [info] Feature definitions | Fixed (documented) | The report and `summary.json` now state the actual definitions. |\n\n## Remaining defect (medium)\n\nThe `flow_follow` finalist (`6656a86c82bd55ce`) is still scored as a silent zero on the 2024 ETH segment and on BTC and SOL. `lab/final_v3.py:84` gives it no taker-flow input there, so it can emit no signals, yet the eligibility guard marks it `eligible`.\n\n- **Reproduction:** on development bars it emits 125 events with flow and 0 without. Running the one-shot driver on synthetic bars returns `eligible`, `n=0`, `0.0`%/day for it on all three checks.\n- **Why it matters:** it contradicts the author's \"never a silent zero\" answer, and the unrepeatable 2024 opening would be spent on it for nothing.\n- **Fix within the design:** add a flow guard to the eligibility check, or fetch and seal Binance 5m klines for January 2024 before opening.\n\n## Top-10 re-run\n\nAll ten finalists replay bit-exactly against the stored checkpoints, and the 49 Python tests pass. The \"no validated edge\" verdict is supported: the nested next-fold policy is −0.039% equity/day on 52 trades, and White p is 0.92 against FLAT.\n\n- **Final checks have little power left:** only four finalists get a genuinely untouched check (the 31-day 2024 segment), and none can reach 100 trades there. The two ML finalists have no final check at all.\n- **Concentration:** finalists 5–10 are negative without their three best trades.\n- **Duplicate bet:** `meta_fade` and `sigma_fade` daily returns correlate 0.98.\n- **Maker adverse selection:** for four of the five maker finalists, missed fills had higher gross than filled ones.\n- **Leverage:** returns scale almost linearly with it; 50x adds 1–22 liquidations per finalist and 20x has none.\n\nThe review file ends with suggestions on where edge is most likely; the main one is that the 1h low-width fade cluster with 48h trailing exits is short of statistical power rather than beaten by costs, so the next step is more untouched history, not another search.","treeHash":null,"usage":{"cachedInputTokens":966558,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":2853868},"inputTokens":27,"model":"claude-fable-5-2","outputTokens":27776,"runtime":"claude","turns":14,"wallClockMs":357030}},{"artifacts":[],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"23617eab0c5242d6","findings":[],"hash":"213b8532a6afcb61774fbfef063b351c4cdd8ccde9fd14d1d9b69049ae284254","nodeId":"8e921aae-0b9c-48e0-9b9f-f01d4c2b8e06","outcome":"completed","summary":"All three issues I raised last round are fixed, I found nothing new, and I grade the claim **no edge**. The review is in `artifacts/review_v3b.md`, and `.imd-findings.json` is an empty list. The repository itself is unchanged.\n\n**What I re-ran:** I made a fresh copy of HEAD `b3fac73` in a scratch directory and restored the three sealed 2024 data files, which match their sealed hashes. In that copy only, I removed the one-time lock and ran the final opening again. The output matches the committed `final_results.json` exactly, for all 5 finalists, 4 checks and 3 leverages. The tests and `scripts/check-round-b.py` pass, and the hashes match `completion.json`.\n\n**Order of events:** the data was sealed at 10:25:56, the finalists were frozen at 10:27:23, and the finals were opened at 10:27:26. There is one lock, and the code refuses to open a second time.\n\n**Earlier findings:**\n- **Round B and final opening never run (high): fixed.** Round B added 1,296 configurations, five finalists were frozen, and the opening lock and per-check results now exist.\n- **2024 check only one month long (high): fixed.** It now covers all of 2024 plus 42 days of warm-up, with no missing minutes. All five finalists can be scored on it. The best rule makes 171–177 trades; rsi_fade makes only 76–82 and is correctly flagged as under 100.\n- **BTC/SOL reused the burned 2026 data (medium): fixed.** Both now use the same untouched 2024 year. The authors say plainly that this is not the symbols' full history, which the task allows as a substitute era.\n- **Multiple-testing note (info): withdrawn.** It reported no defect and its line reference didn't resolve.\n\n**Headline numbers:** they all match `summary_v3.md`. For the best frozen rule (regime_switch, 60m), net equity per day is:\n\n| Check | 10x | 50x |\n|---|---|---|\n| ETH 2024 | −0.005% | +0.004% |\n| BTC 2024 | −0.012% | −0.052% |\n| SOL 2024 | +0.017% | +0.050% |\n\n- Every 95% interval at 50x includes zero or lies entirely below it.\n- No finalist has the same sign on all three symbols.\n- The post-v2 ETH window is 175 minutes, too short to score anything.\n\n**Multiple testing:**\n- **Deflated Sharpe:** I recomputed the null threshold by hand over 7,176 trials and got 0.4506, which matches the stored value. The deflated-Sharpe probability is 0.018 (0.023 in my simpler approximation), far below the 0.95 needed.\n- **White test against not trading:** p = 0.929, and conservatively 1.0 because 1,008 earlier-round result series are missing.\n\nThe authors' own conclusion, no validated edge, matches the evidence and is not overstated.","treeHash":null,"usage":{"cachedInputTokens":622257,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":606014},"inputTokens":29,"model":"claude-opus-5-5","outputTokens":11390,"runtime":"claude","turns":15,"wallClockMs":146866}},{"artifacts":[],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"cc309a7afc70b0b1","findings":[],"hash":"4946f09fce8a54007ef0c23071c5d40c9df8210cb858929c908ec47b55994b3b","nodeId":"cd57af8c-f76d-4cf5-b24d-e9a3f790f8da","outcome":"completed","summary":"| Area | Previous review | This review |\n|---|---:|---:|\n| Requirements | Counts not supplied | 16 met · 2 missing · 2 need requester · 0 faked |\n| Broken features | 1 high | 0 reproduced |\n| Product on first screen, 390px | Not supplied | Yes |\n| taste@1 | Not supplied | 12/16 raw |\n| Copy findings | Not supplied | 0 new |\n| Share card | Not supplied | 5/5 metadata present |\n\n**The reported hash-overflow bug is fixed.** At 320, 390 and 1440px, expanding the disclosure leaves page width equal to viewport width. Both complete 64-character hashes wrap onto three lines and select exactly. Enter/Space toggling and Chromium replay interactions pass. The fix is present in [web/style.css:1060][styles].\n\n[.imd-findings.json][findings] contains `{\"findings\":[]}`. No product files changed.\n\nWebKit remains unverified: its renderer aborted before loading the page because it could not create an EGL display. The probe’s four flags concern transition contrast, label heuristics, the preserved monospace font and a loading placeholder; they do not substantiate another defect in this revision.\n\nThe original brief mapping below reflects delivered records; this round did not rerun research or reopen previously disclosed limitations.\n\n| Explicit requirement | Status | Evidence |\n|---|---|---|\n| “keep the v1/v2 code, scorer, data cache, tests and widget” | Met | Retained `lab/`, `data/`, `tests/`, `src/widget/` |\n| Prove a cost-beating edge or convincingly establish none | Missing, disclosed | [Summary][summary] explicitly claims neither |\n| Maker trade-through, adverse-selection check, fill rate and missed-fill returns | Met | [Execution engine][venue], saved results |\n| Taker/maker fees and 1bp taker slippage | Met | [Execution engine][venue] |\n| Results at 50×/20×/10×, sizing and liquidation | Met | [Research][research], saved settings |\n| Historical source coverage stated | Met | [Coverage disclosure][research] |\n| Nested earlier-fold selection, purging and one-day embargo | Met | [Walk-forward implementation][walkforward] |\n| v1/v2 holdouts treated as burned development data | Met | [Research][research] |\n| Final checks frozen before one-time opening | Met | [Opening record][opening] |\n| Every newer ETH bar scored as a final check | Needs requester: longer forward window | [Research][research]: available 175 minutes cannot support 48h |\n| Untouched BTC/SOL checks over full periods | Needs requester: approve substituted eras | [Research][research]: untouched 2024 substitutes disclosed |\n| Untouched 2024 ETH segment fetched and sealed | Met | [Seal][seal], [summary][summary] |\n| Every historical configuration counted in DSR and White/SPA | Missing, disclosed | [Research][research]: unlogged trials and missing legacy vectors |\n| ≥100 final trades and stability before any edge claim | Met | [Research][research]; no validated-edge claim |\n| Strongest result, full distribution and failed ideas reported | Met | [Research][research], trial download |\n| CompositeWidget and replay show the frozen v3 finalist | Met | [Widget][widget], [replay][replay] |\n| Desktop/phone size budget and seven RSI tiles | Met | Browser measurements and retained layout |\n| Per-TF score, state, last signal/age, execution, leverage and grade | Met | [Widget][widget] |\n| Preserve palette/font; closed-bar signals without flicker | Met | [Styles][styles]; Chromium stability check |\n| Refresh desktop/phone screenshots of all states | Met | [Screenshot collection][screenshots] |\n\nThe site is an ETH research replay terminal carried by compact dark charts and a monospace signal grid.\n\n[styles]: /home/imd/.identitymd/work/06c17940-9c5c-4a75-82b1-faaf05ab09a6/cd57af8c-f76d-4cf5-b24d-e9a3f790f8da/web/style.css:1060\n[findings]: /home/imd/.identitymd/work/06c17940-9c5c-4a75-82b1-faaf05ab09a6/cd57af8c-f76d-4cf5-b24d-e9a3f790f8da/.imd-findings.json\n[summary]: /home/imd/.identitymd/work/06c17940-9c5c-4a75-82b1-faaf05ab09a6/cd57af8c-f76d-4cf5-b24d-e9a3f790f8da/artifacts/summary_v3.md\n[research","treeHash":null,"usage":{"cachedInputTokens":4504576,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":1428449},"inputTokens":110272,"model":"gpt-6.1-sol","outputTokens":30699,"runtime":"codex","turns":8,"wallClockMs":864778}},{"artifacts":[],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":"5a12d7cf4780948cf95e403dea9d7361e057a60b7022077abf2cd009c3da6014","device":"0be47287abf7c3bd","findings":[],"hash":"7f27493691033ed487717876b6b7210ade16d34715f808ee21f81a539adefe7a","nodeId":"1dc56141-c602-4763-9fd1-3701720f1429","outcome":"completed","summary":"The supplied flow finding was already fixed: missing input returns `not_scored` with null metrics. Runtime code remains unchanged.\n\nAdded integration regression coverage; **72 tests pass**. Regenerated all three v3 outputs and added the review disposition atop the summary. Frozen evidence is unchanged; no final data was reopened.\n\nDetails are in `REVIEW-ANSWERS.md`. `artifacts/review_v3b.md` was absent, so validation covered the supplied finding.","treeHash":"cf61b928b4895651f13765f55c253e3e1c075e42","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1132032,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":2392992},"inputTokens":60896,"model":"gpt-6-astra","outputTokens":13040,"runtime":"codex","turns":6,"wallClockMs":396308}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":19646,"hash":"5167e639369b1c93f3d71c9d94b9a951b733e6f20f949f34394898ef1b673ed0","mediaType":"text/markdown","name":"exploration","path":"artifacts/exploration_v3.md"},{"bytes":39344728,"hash":"932a55e0fc6697cdeaf09e303505f0c3e9cbc57b6f101ef2c5752b7197230db2","mediaType":"application/json","name":"leaderboard","path":"artifacts/leaderboard_v3.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":"94f1fd796141805feeb0a5af9d9a21371ee9e3b48f21565ad7d0c6b8ea725f46","device":"0b3b16f4e82a0732","findings":[],"hash":"820337bc971aa0e1803bc74776779589072c8a1592e4d659d0a8c4c4263e6d1c","nodeId":"ab7a25e8-4b3e-4625-b9f2-c873be44ebd8","outcome":"completed","summary":"Completed Round A: 3,948 configs evaluated; v1/v2 and widget preserved.\n\nNested selection returned **−0.03896% equity/day**. No validated edge claimed. Final data remains sealed; prior BTC/SOL contamination is documented.\n\nValidation: **53 tests and 72 replay checks passed**.\n\nDeliverables: [Exploration report](artifacts/exploration_v3.md) · [Full leaderboard](artifacts/leaderboard_v3.json)","treeHash":"cfd84235a86c0819ba0b618797ddd0902536793a","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":2994560,"inputTokens":95849,"model":null,"outputTokens":40299,"runtime":"codex","turns":7,"wallClockMs":1244976}},{"artifacts":[],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"108f8fd3a1992a92","findings":[{"citation":"resolved","description":"Now: The Data coverage, freeze and reproducibility disclosure renders two unbroken 64-character SHA-256 values in .frozen-ids flex rows, capped at 340px, with no wrapping rule for dd. Each value alone is 422.4px wide in the shipped 11px IBM Plex Mono font; the label and default dd margin add more width.\nChange to: Set .frozen-ids dt { flex-shrink: 0 } and .frozen-ids dd { min-width: 0; margin-inline-start: 12px; overflow-wrap: anywhere }. Preserve the entire selectable hash, allowing the row to grow vertically.\nWhy: The review requires no horizontal page scroll at 320 or 390px and full critical values without clipping. Opening ordinary research details must keep the page within the viewport.","line":1054,"path":"web/style.css","reproduction":"Width 390px (also 320px). Open #research, then expand Data coverage, freeze and reproducibility and inspect the two source-hash rows. Expected: complete hashes wrap within the page gutters. Actual: neither hash has a break opportunity, so its min-content width exceeds both the 340px row and the 358px phone content area, extending the page horizontally. Evidence: web/ResearchV3.tsx:93 renders both 64-character dd values; fontkit measurement of web/public/fonts/ibm-plex-mono-latin-400-normal.woff2 gives exactly 422.4px per hash at the CSS 11px size. The supplied research-phone.png and taste probe leave this details element closed, so their no-overflow result does not cover this state. Verified from the rendered DOM and shipped font metrics; fresh browser layout measurement was unavailable.","severity":"high","snippet":".frozen-ids > div {\n  display: flex;\n  justify-content: space-between;\n  padding-block: 6px;\n  border-bottom: 1px solid var(--line);\n}","title":"bug: expanding the source hashes breaks the phone layout"}],"hash":"a1e3dfa29478ab9f61f26737e773583f4f67660df5f361183609c68a4e3edecb","nodeId":"cd57af8c-f76d-4cf5-b24d-e9a3f790f8da","outcome":"completed","summary":"| Area | Count / result |\n|---|---|\n| Brief requirements | 24 reviewed: 19 met, 3 missing, 0 faked, 2 need requester input |\n| Broken features | 1 high |\n| Product and action on first screen | Yes, in supplied 390px screenshot |\n| taste@1 | Fresh run unavailable; supplied result: 14/16 |\n| Copy findings | 0 |\n| Share card | Present |\n\nRecorded one finding in [.imd-findings.json](/home/imd-worker/.identitymd/work/06c17940-9c5c-4a75-82b1-faaf05ab09a6/cd57af8c-f76d-4cf5-b24d-e9a3f790f8da/.imd-findings.json):\n\n**High — bug: expanding the source hashes breaks the phone layout.** At 390px and 320px, open Research → “Data coverage, freeze and reproducibility.” Each unwrapped hash measures 422.4px in the shipped font, exceeding its 340px row before the label is added. Allow the values to wrap while preserving the complete selectable hashes.\n\nDOM checks passed for both replay engines, stepping, next signal, rewind, research filters and all 16 gallery states. Bundled v3 evidence matches the pinned inputs. Fresh Chromium/WebKit verification was unavailable; the layout finding uses source, rendered DOM and measured font metrics. Application files were unchanged.\n\n| Brief requirement | Status and evidence |\n|---|---|\n| “Keep the v1/v2 code, scorer, data cache, tests and widget” | **Met** — preserved modules, caches, tests and v2 engine selector. |\n| “Prove” a cost-beating edge or convincingly establish none | **Missing** — the saved verdict explicitly establishes neither. |\n| “Experiment a lot, follow the evidence” | **Met** — 5,256 v3 trials; discovery and final evidence distinguished. |\n| Timeframes, holding periods and multi-timeframe stacks | **Met** — search configurations and frozen 1h/4h rule. |\n| Conservative maker fills, adverse selection, fill rate and missed returns | **Met** — venue model and trial diagnostics. |\n| Specified maker/taker fees and taker slippage | **Met** — venue model and “Costs before confidence.” |\n| Leverage decision, 50×/20×/10× reporting, volatility sizing and liquidation | **Met** — execution configurations and research leverage controls. |\n| Existing features and public historical inputs with stated coverage | **Met** — preserved feature modules and data-coverage disclosure. |\n| Permitted rule, regime, ML, meta-label and exit experiments | **Met** — recorded family/configuration distribution; unused freedoms disclosed. |\n| Nested walk-forward, earlier-fold selection, purging and one-day embargo | **Met** — nested results and validation implementation; adaptivity disclosed. |\n| Burned v1/v2 holdouts used only for development | **Met** — research limitations state this explicitly. |\n| Freeze finalists before one-time final opening | **Met** — matching freeze and opening records. |\n| Final check on every newer ETH bar | **Needs the requester** — adequate untouched forward history; supplied 175-minute window is unscored. |\n| SOL over its full period | **Missing** — an untouched 2024 era substitutes for full history. |\n| BTC over its full period | **Missing** — an untouched 2024 era substitutes for full history. |\n| Fetch and seal an untouched 2024 ETH segment | **Met** — full-year scoring era plus warm-up in seal evidence. |\n| Every historical trial in DSR and White/SPA versus FLAT | **Needs the requester** — complete legacy records/vectors; current counts are lower bounds and global White bound is conservatively 1. |\n| At least 100 final trades and stability before claiming an edge | **Met** — no edge claimed; grade remains U. |\n| Strongest result, full distribution and what killed promising ideas | **Met** — Research disclosures and complete trial download. |\n| CompositeWidget and replay show the best frozen v3 finalist | **Met** — frozen regime-switch ID; unsupported rows explicitly OFF. |\n| Desktop/phone budgets and seven shared RSI tiles | **Met** — fixed widget dimensions and supplied state captures. |\n| Per-TF score, state, signal age, execution, leverage and confidence mark | **Met** — widget rows and","treeHash":null,"usage":{"cachedInputTokens":4352000,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":1417952},"inputTokens":161791,"model":"gpt-6.1-sol","outputTokens":22397,"runtime":"codex","turns":8,"wallClockMs":682245}},{"artifacts":[],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":"68df1d19ead3179496f6f75f69e08e7f7406124f4c68f59802e1395457b4d76c","device":"8d3c5d45c10bda24","findings":[],"hash":"a756ae0d4ecba09ebd20bb15f6e0146e8a0662e860618d2b5ce48e7e74f34910","nodeId":"6e4f0a18-abc8-4d3e-a953-e21df8a21ce8","outcome":"completed","summary":"Implemented the frozen v3 finalist in the compact widget and replay, preserving v1/v2. Added evidence views, downloads, refreshed screenshots, and complete [static export](dist/index.html).\n\nValidation passed: production build, typecheck, 251 TypeScript tests, 72 Python tests, and 34 browser checks. Submission is 6.93 MB, below 8 MiB.\n\nThe evidence supports **no validated trading edge**. WebKit remains unverified due to missing system libraries.\n\nSetup and limitations are documented in [README.md](README.md) and [validation](artifacts/validation-v3.md).","treeHash":"e36923952808ae9f71b3cb46e11c9e96f912505d","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":9710080,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":3416264},"inputTokens":462174,"model":"gpt-6.1-sol","outputTokens":54990,"runtime":"codex","turns":11,"wallClockMs":1720631}},{"artifacts":[],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"e67cc6ec4009b226","findings":[{"citation":"resolved","description":"eth_2024 holds 44,640 minutes = 186 complete 4h bars. ethlab.indicators.ema() returns all-NaN when len(x)<n, so ema_trend_state(higher) is 0 on every bar of the segment. features_v3 sets 'higher'=0 everywhere, and the frozen finalists trend (#5 dc64df023187b902, rule trend==higher), session_trend (#9 6e93d7b0a15b6e55) emit zero events, while regime_switch (#1 8e3d24568c696980) loses its trend leg (17 of its 57 development trades came from that leg). final_v3 would report these as 'n=0' or a different strategy without flagging the warm-up shortfall, so the one-time, unrepeatable 2024 check is void for 3 of 10 finalists.","line":42,"path":"lab/final_v3.py","reproduction":"Arithmetic on the seal: rows=44640 -> 44640//240 = 186 < 200. Equivalent offline check without opening the seal: b=Bars of 186 synthetic 4h bars; I.ema(b.c,200) == [nan]*186; I.ema_trend_state(b) == [0]*186; F.events(b,fs,'trend',None) == []. Expected: the 2024 segment either carries >=34 extra days of warm-up data (e.g. Dec 2023 prepended for feature warm-up only) or final_v3 refuses to score families that reference 'higher'. Actual: silent zero/partial results.","severity":"high","snippet":"        m1=D.Bars(raw,1); high=F.complete_resample(raw,240); cache={}; measured=[]","title":"2024 ETH final check cannot warm the 4h EMA200: trend-dependent finalists are structurally silent"},{"citation":"resolved","description":"configs/frozen-v3.json logistic_models are fitted on ETH development bars with label_cutoff=end-1day (1794355200000). final_v3 applies those weights to btc_full and sol_full, whose periods are D.START_MS..D.END_MS = 1780617600000..1794441600000, identical to the ETH development window. The model's feature vector includes hour sin/cos, trend and momentum, so it has learned the direction of the very hours/days that BTC and SOL (correlation with ETH well above 0.7) are then scored on. The BTC/SOL results for finalists #2 logistic (efc4279620d0217f) and #3 meta_fade (aa7ff7ff1718e00a) are therefore in-sample in time, not out-of-sample transfer checks, and would overstate any edge.","line":62,"path":"lab/report_v3.py","reproduction":"python3 -c \"from ethlab import data as D; print(D.START_MS, D.END_MS)\" -> 1780617600000 1794441600000; lab.search_v3.development() returns start=1780617600000,end=1794441600000; configs/frozen-v3.json logistic_models['60'].label_cutoff = 1794355200000 which lies inside the btc_full/sol_full scoring window. Expected: the symbol check for ML families uses a model whose labels end before the symbol's scoring period starts (or scores only on eth_2024 / post-cutoff bars). Actual: full overlap.","severity":"high","snippet":"        w,nn=F.train_logistic(bb,feat,end-D.DAY)","title":"Frozen logistic model is trained on ETH labels over the exact calendar of the BTC/SOL transfer checks (contemporaneous leakage)"},{"citation":"resolved","description":"With tick=0.01 and median ETH close 2231, a resting limit is filled whenever the minute low touches limit-0.01, i.e. a fill at the minute extreme with no queue priority. Re-simulating the frozen 60m maker finalists with a larger required trade-through shows the maker return is driven by those marginal fills: logistic #2 net/day 0.09857 (tick .01) -> 0.03886 (tick .3 = 1.3bp) -> 0.08262 (1.0) -> 0.04662 (3.0); rsi_fade #7 0.03071 -> 0.01491 -> 0.00392 -> 0.00068; trend #5 0.05449 -> 0.04683 -> 0.03519 -> -0.03765; breakout #6 0.03639 -> 0.05428 -> 0.05760 -> -0.01362. The matched taker variant of #2 gives 0.07439%/day on 114 trades, so the maker premium is small and non-monotone in the fill assumption. The exploration report presents the maker variants as the family winners without this sensitivity.","line":17,"path":"lab/venue_v3.py","reproduction":"Run lab.venue_v3.simulate on config efc4279620d0217f with cfg['tick'] set to 0.3 instead of 0.01 (everything else identical, development data, same prequential probabilities). Expected if fills were robust: net_equity_pct_per_day within noise of 0.09857. Actual: 0.03886 with 79 trades and fill rate 44.1% (vs 86 trades, 51.8%).","severity":"medium","snippet":"    return low<=limit-tick if side==1 else high>=limit+tick","title":"Maker fills credited on a 0.01 trade-through (0.045 bp on ETH): most of the maker-variant return comes from fills within 1.3 bp of the minute extreme"},{"citation":"resolved","description":"eth_new was sealed at 09:22 UTC the same day as the v2 cache end and holds 110 minutes. venue_v3.simulate skips any signal unless hold_min+3 minutes of bars exist after it (line 61), so all nine 2880-minute finalists and the 30m session_trend finalist record attempts=0 on check (a). The acquisition function refuses to extend the seal, so the task's check (a) 'every ETH bar newer than the v2 cache' is permanently void under this code, and the 100-trade requirement for an edge claim is unattainable on it. The report discloses the 110 minutes but not that the check is thereby void by construction.","line":59,"path":"lab/v3data.py","reproduction":"Seal: eth_new rows=110, first_ts 1794468600000, last_ts 1794475140000. For any finalist with hold_min=2880: bisect_left(m1.ts, ts+2883*MIN) >= len(m1) for every event with b.ts[i]+tf*MIN >= start, so simulate returns attempts=0, trades=[]. Expected: final_v3 extends eth_new to all bars newer than 1794468600000 at opening time (sealing the fetch then), or states that check (a) is void. Actual: refuses refresh and would report n=0.","severity":"medium","snippet":"    if SEAL.exists(): raise RuntimeError('seal already exists; refusing refresh')","title":"Post-v2 ETH seal (110 minutes) can never produce a complete trade for any 48h-hold finalist and the seal refuses refresh"},{"citation":"resolved","description":"The family representative 'pick' is max development net/day over the full 130 scored days, which contains all four outer folds. The '3/4 positive outer folds' column in exploration_v3.md therefore is an in-sample consistency count, not out-of-sample evidence, yet it sits beside the nested walk-forward table that is. The nested result for the same families is negative (-0.03896%/day).","line":50,"path":"lab/report_v3.py","reproduction":"For pick 8e3d24568c696980 the outer fold values [0.0456,-0.043,0.1129,0.0867] are slices of the same development daily vector that produced its 0.10607%/day ranking statistic. Expected: label the column as in-sample, or compute it only for nested selections. Actual: presented alongside next-fold results.","severity":"low","snippet":"            'positive_outer_folds':sum(f['outer']['net_equity_pct_per_day']>0 for f in pick['folds']),","title":"'Positive outer folds' for the ten directions are counted on configs selected using those same folds"},{"citation":"resolved","description":"Re-running 8e3d24568c696980 (regime_switch, 60m, 48h, taker, 50x): total +13.79% equity over days 30-160, of which the three best trades contribute +2.67, +2.66, +2.28 (sum 7.61%); without them the total is +6.18%, and 6 of 57 trades are full-margin liquidations (kinds: liq 6, stop 28, target 15, time 8). Also, this line uses future minute bars (gap pre-check up to hold+3 minutes ahead) to decide signal eligibility, a mild lookahead that is harmless on gap-free ETH but changes SOL eligibility around its one missing minute.","line":61,"path":"lab/venue_v3.py","reproduction":"Sum of t['eq'] over W.contained(simulate(...)['trades'], start+30d, end) = 0.1379; removing the three largest gives 0.0618. Expected for an edge claim: no single-trade dominance; actual: 55% in 3 trades of 57.","severity":"low","snippet":"        if last>=len(m1) or gaps[last]!=gaps[k]: continue","title":"Top-1 candidate's return is concentrated: three trades carry 55% of total equity gain and six 50x liquidations sit in 57 trades"},{"citation":"resolved","description":"Outer-band breach uses 3.5 sigma on every timeframe (spec: 1m outer multiplier 3.0). 'momentum' for tf=240 is a one-bar (4h) return because max(1,60//240)=1, not a 60-minute return. The logistic label 'b.o[j]>b.c[i]' with j=bisect_left(ts, close+30m) is the open of bar i+2 for tf>=60, i.e. a one-full-bar horizon (60m or 240m), not the '30-minute direction' the report states. None of these is lookahead; they are documentation/spec mismatches that affect comparability with v1/v2 breach results.","line":61,"path":"lab/features_v3.py","reproduction":"tf=240: F.features(...) 'momentum' = (c[i]/c[i-1]-1)/(atr/c); tf=60 label: j = first bar with ts >= ts[i]+60m+30m = bar i+2. Expected per report: 30-minute horizon; actual: 60/240-minute.","severity":"info","snippet":"        breach=1 if b.h[i]>ma[i]+3.5*sd[i] else -1 if b.l[i]<ma[i]-3.5*sd[i] else 0","title":"Feature definitions deviate from the owner spec and the report's description"}],"hash":"aabdd1839af9dc2c139c57e0aaf7ab5b68c54589909c9176983af021238f5d66","nodeId":"ebc6623f-4a67-4493-a3c6-d13402e04c11","outcome":"completed","summary":"Review complete. Both deliverables are written and verified against the tree, and no project source was changed.\n\n**Outcome.** Round A's headline is sound: all ten frozen finalists reproduce exactly from the committed engine, a future-perturbation probe found no lookahead in features, prequential logistic or execution, and the 28 v3 unit tests pass. The defects are in the final-check design, which matters because `lab.final_v3` can only be run once.\n\n**Findings, ranked** (7 total in `.imd-findings.json`, full write-up in `artifacts/review_v3a.md`):\n\n- **High: 2024 ETH segment cannot warm the 4h EMA200.** 44,640 minutes is 186 four-hour bars, fewer than the 200 needed. The higher-timeframe state is zero throughout, so trend and session_trend emit nothing and regime_switch loses its trend leg. The one-shot check is silently void for 3 of 10 finalists.\n- **High: frozen logistic model leaks into the BTC/SOL transfer check.** It is trained on ETH labels over exactly the same calendar window that BTC and SOL are scored on, with hour-of-day and trend features. Those checks for the logistic and meta_fade finalists are in-sample in time.\n- **Medium: maker fills credited on a 0.045 bp trade-through.** Requiring 1.3 bp through cuts the logistic maker finalist from 0.099 to 0.039 % equity/day. The maker premium is non-monotone across tick sizes and smaller than the taker variant's result on more trades.\n- **Medium: the post-v2 ETH check is empty by construction.** 110 sealed minutes can never hold a 48-hour trade, and the seal refuses refresh.\n- **Low:** \"positive outer folds\" column is in-sample. Top-1 return has 55 percent in three trades plus six 50x liquidations, and the gap pre-check reads future bars.\n- **Info:** breach sigma, momentum horizon and the logistic label horizon differ from the spec and report text.\n\n**Where edge is most likely.** The 60m-signal, 48h-hold fade cluster is one hypothesis sharing 40 trades across three families, with gross well above modeled costs. Pre-register a single fade rule at 20x with taker execution and test it once, pooled across BTC, SOL and a properly warmed 2024 segment, to reach 100 trades. Drop the maker premium and the 50x result from any claim.","treeHash":null,"usage":{"cachedInputTokens":748541,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":4008060},"inputTokens":322,"model":"claude-fable-5-1","outputTokens":35282,"runtime":"claude","turns":11,"wallClockMs":516324}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":24834,"hash":"6f9c8d4d0c9dc6d866d8ac624457314c5f330f22d76ebe98a7ed277c256a286a","mediaType":"text/markdown","name":"exploration","path":"artifacts/exploration_v3.md"},{"bytes":39449610,"hash":"cd5f5720b3a937e6fb988853aeca5c6e9429b9a5ca062ed5be8763c5bb2dc084","mediaType":"application/json","name":"leaderboard","path":"artifacts/leaderboard_v3.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":"9a566b65f3ba524aeab7dcb54d464e8f8ca07c67f272f0342c6e7ad5f1e66a4f","device":"0b9c1289a6def0a1","findings":[],"hash":"c5a2201ab725cc3426673ac17f5d5ff39b993f4c3e5c42816c53779943f0cd12","nodeId":"ab7a25e8-4b3e-4625-b9f2-c873be44ebd8","outcome":"completed","summary":"Addressed all seven findings in `.imd-responses.json`.\n\n- Final scoring now rejects invalid warm-up, ML-calendar and short-window checks.\n- Added 12 maker-fill sensitivities and corrected reporting.\n- 60 tests and 72 configuration replays pass.\n- v1/v2 and widget unchanged; final seals remain unopened.\n\nRegenerated both required artifacts. No validated trading edge is claimed.","treeHash":"be4f6d1799984876f238c16af6ebac52839a2a82","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1441280,"inputTokens":67121,"model":null,"outputTokens":17758,"runtime":"codex","turns":6,"wallClockMs":529654}},{"artifacts":[],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"dc8953647c7d9f30","findings":[{"citation":"resolved","description":"The assignment requires re-running the frozen finalists, confirming final-check headline numbers and verifying that the finals were opened once, after freezing. At HEAD 869654f nothing has been opened. lab.final_v3.main was never executed (no lock, no results), seal.json and summary.json both report finals_opened=false, and summary_v3.md says 'Round B expansion, final opening and v3 live parity ... remain uncompleted'. Rules 3, 5 and 6 (final checks, >=100 final trades, final distribution) are therefore unmet. Every number in the deliverable is development or selection-conditioned.","line":227,"path":"configs/frozen-v3.json","reproduction":"git clone at 869654f; `ls lab/runs_v3/final_opening.json lab/runs_v3/final_results.json` -> No such file or directory; `grep -n finals_opened lab/data_v3/seal.json lab/runs_v3/summary.json` -> false at seal.json:124 and summary.json:2100. Expected: a lock written after the freeze and final_results.json holding per-check metrics. Actual: neither exists. FV.check_frozen(frozen-v3.json) passes, so the opening can still be done once without contamination.","severity":"high","snippet":" \"phase\": \"Round A complete; FINAL DATA STILL SEALED\",","title":"Round B and the one-time final opening were never run: no final-check results exist to confirm"},{"citation":"resolved","description":"Check (c) seals only 2024-01-01..2024-01-31 (44,640 1m rows, 186 complete 4h bars). final_v3.eligibility marks trend, session_trend and regime_switch not_scored because 186 < 201 bars of EMA200 warm-up. logistic and meta_fade are not_scored because the model is from a later era. flow_follow is not_scored because there is no 2024 flow. That leaves 4 of the 10 finalists (sigma_fade, breakout, rsi_fade, confluence). Their development counts were 63/34/29/42 trades in about 130 scored days, which projects to about 7-15 trades in 31 days, well under rule 5's 100. Check (a) eth_new is 110 minutes and is void for all finalists. The only untouched checks therefore cannot support or refute any edge claim, even before they are opened. The task allowed a different untouched era but did not allow a check too short to score.","line":66,"path":"lab/v3data.py","reproduction":"Decode lab/data_v3/eth_2024_1m.csv.xz -> 44640 rows, 2024-01-01T00:00 to 2024-01-31T23:59; F.complete_resample(raw,240) -> 186 bars; eligibility({'family':'regime_switch','hold_min':2880,'tf':60,...}, high, start, end, model) -> status 'not_scored', reason insufficient_higher_warmup. Dev trades/day for the 4 scorable finalists (summary.json family_representatives) times 31 days -> max about 15 trades, below the 100 required. Expected: a sealed era long enough to warm EMA200 and give >=100 trades at the finalists' rates. Fix while the seal is unopened: seal a longer untouched 2024 era with a pre-scoring warm-up.","severity":"high","snippet":"    windows = {'eth_2024':(ms('2024-01-01'), ms('2024-02-01')),","title":"The sealed untouched 2024 check is one month long, so no finalist could reach the 100 required trades and 3 of 10 cannot be scored"},{"citation":"resolved","description":"Rule 3(b) asks for SOL-USDT-SWAP and BTC-USDT-SWAP 'over their full periods'. The seal points btc_full/sol_full at the v1 BTC cross-check cache and the v2 SOL final-check cache (status 'previously-used: transfer check only'). Both span only 2026-06-05..2026-11-11/12, which is exactly the ETH development calendar. So: (1) they are not untouched; (2) final_v3.eligibility (line 39-40) rejects logistic and meta_fade on them through invalid_model_calendar, so the ML family behind the strongest development result (8c6176fab4c83b51 and finalist efc4279620d0217f) has no valid final check anywhere; (3) the windows cover the same market regime as development, so they add little independent evidence.","line":78,"path":"lab/v3data.py","reproduction":"Decode data/BTC-USDT-SWAP_1m.csv.xz -> 230400 rows 2026-06-05T00:00..2026-11-11T23:59; lab/data_v2/SOL-USDT-SWAP_1m_full.csv.xz -> 230849 rows 2026-06-05..2026-11-12T07:29. Run eligibility with finalist efc4279620d0217f (logistic) on start=1780617600000 -> not_scored (invalid_model_calendar). Expected: the full listed histories (or a pre-development era) so each frozen family has at least one untouched, scorable check.","severity":"medium","snippet":"    for name, path in [('btc_full','data/BTC-USDT-SWAP_1m.csv.xz'),","title":"Check (b) BTC/SOL reuses the burned June-Nov 2026 caches, not the symbols' full histories, so both ML finalists are unscorable there"},{"citation":"unresolved","description":"Checked by hand: with N=5880 trials and effective days 70.34, z is about 3.77 and SR0 = z/sqrt(70.34), about 0.445, matching the stored null_expected_max_daily_sharpe of 0.4446. The strongest development daily Sharpe of 0.211 gives DSR probability 0.020. White max-mean against FLAT over 4872 vectors: observed max 0.189%/day, below the null 95th percentile of 0.426%/day, p=0.92. With 1008 legacy-neighbour vectors missing, the global p is bounded at 1.0. The nested walk-forward policy is -0.039%/day on 52 trades. check_frozen passes in a clean clone, and tests.test_final_v3 plus tests.test_v3 pass (they use synthetic seals). No defect; the grade is 'no edge'.","line":164,"path":"lab/statistics_v3.py","reproduction":"Clean clone at 869654f, Python 3.12: lab.final_v3.check_frozen(json.load(open('configs/frozen-v3.json'))) -> OK; python -m unittest tests.test_final_v3 tests.test_v3 -> OK; summary.json multiple_testing.p_observed_vectors=0.92, strongest_development.deflated_sharpe.probability=0.0202.","severity":"info","snippet":"    z=(1-gamma)*normal.inv_cdf(1-1/n_trials)+gamma*normal.inv_cdf(1-1/(n_trials*math.e))","title":"Multiple-testing and nested walk-forward numbers reproduce and support 'no edge'"}],"hash":"c9ad557766f3248a1bbd1ea25216c0aad06d253c6d62e3d35d3eed3f7ffe6192","nodeId":"8e921aae-0b9c-48e0-9b9f-f01d4c2b8e06","outcome":"completed","summary":"**Grade: no edge.** And the final check was never opened, so there are no final-check results to confirm. The project is still at \"Round A complete; FINAL DATA STILL SEALED\" (`configs/frozen-v3.json:227`). There is no `lab/runs_v3/final_opening.json` or `final_results.json`, and both the seal and the summary say `finals_opened: false`. Every headline number is from development.\n\nI wrote the review to `artifacts/review_v3b.md` and the four findings to `.imd-findings.json`. No tracked files changed.\n\n**What I checked** (on a clean clone of `869654f`; the machine had no Python, so I installed 3.12 in a temp folder):\n- **Frozen state:** the freeze check passes — code, grid and seal hashes all match — so the one-time opening can still be done cleanly.\n- **Tests:** `tests.test_final_v3` and `tests.test_v3` pass, but they only use made-up seal data.\n- **Deflated Sharpe:** I recomputed it by hand and it matches. The strongest development candidate, `8c6176fab4c83b51`, has p = 0.020 after counting all 5,880 configs from v1, v2 and v3.\n- **White reality check against flat:** p = 0.92; the best result, 0.189 %/day, is below the 0.426 %/day the bootstrap reaches 5 % of the time by chance. Counting the 1,008 configs with no saved daily returns, the overall p is capped at 1.0.\n- **Nested walk-forward:** −0.039 %/day over 52 trades.\n\n**Findings, most severe first:**\n1. **High: the final round never ran.** Round B and the one-time final opening were not done, so the rules on final checks, at least 100 final trades and the final results distribution are unmet.\n2. **High: the untouched final checks can't support any edge claim even once opened.** The 2024 check (`lab/v3data.py:66`) is only January 2024: 186 four-hour bars, below the 201 needed to warm up the long moving average.\n   - Of the 10 finalists, 6 are excluded there: the three trend-type families (warm-up too short), the two ML families (model from a later period) and the flow family (no 2024 flow data).\n   - The 4 that remain would make about 7–15 trades at their development rates, far short of 100.\n   - The newest-ETH check is only 110 minutes, shorter than the 2-day maximum hold, so it can't score any finalist.\n   - This can still be fixed by sealing a longer untouched period before the opening.\n3. **Medium: the BTC/SOL check doesn't use their full histories** (`lab/v3data.py:78`). It reuses the June–November 2026 data from v1 and v2, the same dates as development. As a result the ML families, including the strongest development result, can't be tested on any final check.\n4. **Info:** the deflated Sharpe, the reality check and the nested walk-forward code look correct, and the project's own descriptions of their limits are accurate.\n\nI did not run the final opening (`python -m lab.final_v3`): it permanently uses up the sealed data, and when to do that is your one-time decision. I also didn't re-run the full 3,888-config search for lack of time; I relied on the hash checks and the project's stored check, which replays 72 sampled configs.","treeHash":null,"usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1046825,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":1106584},"inputTokens":36,"model":"claude-opus-5-5","outputTokens":17186,"runtime":"claude","turns":19,"wallClockMs":225508}},{"artifacts":[],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":"0276cc1011731850ecf1cb6743eff5a63948f5aaf221072b05914062491d348e","device":"e54711bd1fbb0d02","findings":[],"hash":"d70674b856a69e561ac8df5901a74ccffac5d869196ce3958d941bc047ef69a8","nodeId":"6e4f0a18-abc8-4d3e-a953-e21df8a21ce8","outcome":"completed","summary":"Fixed the reproduced overflow. Complete hashes now wrap and remain selectable at 320, 390 and 1440 px.\n\nRebuilt `dist/`, added regression checks and screenshots, and recorded the finding as fixed in `.imd-responses.json`.\n\nBuild, typecheck, 251 tests and 37 browser checks passed. Probe and platform limitations are documented.","treeHash":"95d6aafb46a487550d02d1bc223a54bbba08e0fe","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1931520,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":725198},"inputTokens":98612,"model":"gpt-6.1-sol","outputTokens":14167,"runtime":"codex","turns":7,"wallClockMs":739661}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":63886561,"hash":"60aa8d54dd6233375636fb4714bb64ec5b92e653b5f6a0e1835de8c5e81b6840","mediaType":"application/json","name":"results","path":"artifacts/results_v3.json"},{"bytes":1871,"hash":"4130abd1630899cd37d600e248df9790fab0c45143dd9646b123773399ac735a","mediaType":"application/json","name":"settings","path":"artifacts/settings_v3.json"},{"bytes":3575,"hash":"cb64b5f5814f30fd6f823c124ad1215daaee1af310ea9ed50b5d50f3602de72f","mediaType":"text/markdown","name":"summary","path":"artifacts/summary_v3.md"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":"41c0174ab520d0be80489522ee58575c0579cb9c5d31cf9fadded1535e1aaa8e","device":"0bd6e7ef3fc9345a","findings":[],"hash":"d9dd5d206804e503acb5788b50fa585da748f4c6efd4b35e9ea65e65191f07fd","nodeId":"d6620587-5d30-409a-8810-56f87205885b","outcome":"completed","summary":"Repaired the upload failure: changed source is now **3.03 MB**, below 8 MiB. All three caches are preserved byte-for-byte in the separately delivered results JSON, with a documented offline restore command.\n\nFrozen hashes and final results are unchanged; finals were not reopened. All **71 Python tests and 182 TypeScript tests pass**. The verdict remains **no validated trading edge**.","treeHash":"534079bfa15da43d577ccdfca8df76539c5efe08","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":4061824,"inputTokens":123545,"model":null,"outputTokens":45732,"runtime":"codex","turns":13,"wallClockMs":1357079}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":37496626,"hash":"4c70330987f7c3f6bee510c2b9a19a99fb721c2d03788db477ba6c0ac15d8ca4","mediaType":"application/json","name":"results","path":"artifacts/results_v3.json"},{"bytes":845,"hash":"ff08e86e2143db7bcd53ca7510bc1b4e44c78ded197794f9a03f93f704326d3c","mediaType":"application/json","name":"settings","path":"artifacts/settings_v3.json"},{"bytes":2350,"hash":"2baa4cf241f6cb9d2d6db83f7306fd4ea87c2a807f1a04f30028f3e6e7a4d0b3","mediaType":"text/markdown","name":"summary","path":"artifacts/summary_v3.md"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":"a6950255247903a907b6c65bbc6bd912f508f155cac4cdb605f2f1025b79b888","device":"0bb52b557875d32e","findings":[],"hash":"e310b2a768b8807f54201a8c853debb36f28a626faba8c08efd7bd20d60e0fdc","nodeId":"d6620587-5d30-409a-8810-56f87205885b","outcome":"completed","summary":"Fixed the reproduced missing-flow finding. Flow-dependent checks now return `not_scored` with null metrics when matching flow coverage is missing, stale or partial.\n\nAll 62 Python tests pass. Frozen integrity checks pass; no production final data was opened.\n\nCreated the three required outputs. Existing research, models and widget remain unchanged. The broader Round B search and live-module work remain incomplete, explicitly disclosed in the reports.","treeHash":"99862a3bf761a0304b7f455a5ca536a8f222a440","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":463872,"inputTokens":45252,"model":null,"outputTokens":6396,"runtime":"codex","turns":4,"wallClockMs":180881}}],"verification":[{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"7f27493691033ed487717876b6b7210ade16d34715f808ee21f81a539adefe7a","verifiedTreeHash":"cf61b928b4895651f13765f55c253e3e1c075e42","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+b51cee5a"},{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"820337bc971aa0e1803bc74776779589072c8a1592e4d659d0a8c4c4263e6d1c","verifiedTreeHash":"cfd84235a86c0819ba0b618797ddd0902536793a","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+b51cee5a"},{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"a756ae0d4ecba09ebd20bb15f6e0146e8a0662e860618d2b5ce48e7e74f34910","verifiedTreeHash":"e36923952808ae9f71b3cb46e11c9e96f912505d","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+b51cee5a"},{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"c5a2201ab725cc3426673ac17f5d5ff39b993f4c3e5c42816c53779943f0cd12","verifiedTreeHash":"be4f6d1799984876f238c16af6ebac52839a2a82","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+b51cee5a"},{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"d70674b856a69e561ac8df5901a74ccffac5d869196ce3958d941bc047ef69a8","verifiedTreeHash":"95d6aafb46a487550d02d1bc223a54bbba08e0fe","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+b51cee5a"},{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"d9dd5d206804e503acb5788b50fa585da748f4c6efd4b35e9ea65e65191f07fd","verifiedTreeHash":"534079bfa15da43d577ccdfca8df76539c5efe08","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+b51cee5a"},{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"e310b2a768b8807f54201a8c853debb36f28a626faba8c08efd7bd20d60e0fdc","verifiedTreeHash":"99862a3bf761a0304b7f455a5ca536a8f222a440","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+b51cee5a"}]}