{"assessments":[],"deployments":[],"fuzz":[],"identity":{"adapter":"0xde152afb7db5373f34876e1499fbd893a82dd336","chainId":1,"collection":"0x0000ec93127baa929e58e97dd0095a2bfb38ec1d","registry":"0x8004a169fb4a3325136eb29fa0ceb6d2e539a432"},"interpretation":"Records acceptance and evidence. Neither completion nor an AI assessment establishes correctness, safety, or independent 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cution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.6"],"skillHash":"c95f23fc62b002f17a8bcbfb019fe6e29cf5cabad5405c40bb768df994283126","skillId":"goal-judge","tools":[]},"key":"judge","kind":"code","role":"review","skillHash":"c95f23fc62b002f17a8bcbfb019fe6e29cf5cabad5405c40bb768df994283126","skillId":"goal-judge","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"6d30a8945fb63d28f38a1f84d1d6f815c5f1f396219256c5827ccda165a3668c","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.5"],"skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","subagents":4,"tools":[]},"key":"merge_01","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"e07351cc39c133698eaeb4dc1c6152f64c5c20d13bf86be845884c6907583593","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.5"],"skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","subagents":4,"tools":[]},"key":"merge_02","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","state":"accepted"},{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"c011b067eccd6b4d835129de49aa26505fd89d00133969c1ef5eaf233f5e2f89","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network","worker:0.1.5"],"skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","subagents":4,"tools":[]},"key":"writeup","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"6cea051a0232ef22829dedd4fb599161d20cd94f0aeb6472e890d31d914d4178","skillId":"goal-task","state":"accepted"}],"objective":"Find out whether the retreat-cancel wrapper adds to this network's two best Prediction Market files, so we can submit the better one to Paradigm's board (https://www.paradigm.xyz/puzzles/prediction-market-challenge). We are 2nd at 110.21 (imd.fun swarm #1042), 1st is 110.69. #1042 is one of two files from goal 253f3b6a, m-plus-a or m-plus-b; nobody knows which. Retreat-cancel (a wrapper appended to a file) gained +0.37 (se 0.12, 1,000 fresh seeds, worst single run -57.8) over the older m-all file. This goal measures it on m-plus-a and on m-plus-b, ten blocks of 500 fresh seeds each, every seed reported, so the gain, its standard error and its worst runs are all known before anyone submits. Simulator: https://github.com/danrobinson/prediction-market-challenge at commit b244530ee2a6247b5f930830eeca9dd950da0e7e.","parentJobId":null,"planHash":"465decd16a05e924f711d0d1dc503d14e232ef04ba471a352e57002e1d41fceb","previousHash":"0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000","projectId":"75dd8e1e-60c6-470e-a8a8-a6352c6fb9ea","publication":{"commit":null,"deliveredAt":null,"repoUrl":null},"receiptIdentity":{"adapter":"0xde152afb7db5373f34876e1499fbd893a82dd336","chainId":1,"collection":"0x0000ec93127baa929e58e97dd0095a2bfb38ec1d","registry":"0x8004a169fb4a3325136eb29fa0ceb6d2e539a432"},"registry":"0xb6d0a187b050fa5bb0b87033a203f37becf4a775","research":[],"schema":"identitymd-work-v1","signals":[],"site":null,"snapshotHash":"465efc4329d51a5b06cfbc04963ad2244f5110a78febd5a40152ceb37ec7e6a9","state":"completed","submissions":[{"artifacts":[{"bytes":12359,"hash":"3c599834ca300a92963465d462cfbafd320e2bc9f072003e282094463c07dcf5","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-b-03/result.json"},{"bytes":1110,"hash":"cab197753acc31440e752286ec7ce2ee46cf1793d65f984687aca8597c40381c","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-b-03/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"6ed09c2eb1ff6aec","findings":[],"hash":"1f567d38d9c6d0a5272c0a7f8f9c42f317b8586a6a9251caf0c35ce6a6625653","nodeId":"178b874d-7a81-42ef-adad-78926ec858d2","outcome":"completed","summary":"Task complete. Verified BASE/N/RC/CANDIDATE hashes all match the brief, built CANDIDATE = BASE+WRAPPER, ran the full block of 500 seeds (706000–706499) serially against the unmodified simulator at the pinned commit with no failures, and wrote the results.\n\nSummary: mean_diff ≈ 0.4983, se ≈ 0.0944 for CANDIDATE minus BASE total_edge on this block (retail_diff ≈ -0.1468, arb_diff ≈ 0.6452), all 500 seeds complete, 0 failures. Output written to `artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-b-03/result.json` (12,359 bytes) and sources to `sources.json`.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1089505,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":525178},"inputTokens":58,"model":"claude-sonnet-5","outputTokens":12329,"runtime":"claude","turns":29,"wallClockMs":2167307}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":27467,"hash":"b277dafb95843e7357b4f20bfe94fbe5d9f9b3ae8f27ef3fc39adc423eff3c5e","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-b-06/result.json"},{"bytes":1851,"hash":"daadcc0a5113d35f1511f71fdb4fddf7eff61c9d68ced4c1d0abfef19c61d15f","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-b-06/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"702ed53e16fa8728","findings":[],"hash":"26692475fedbc7b8804cd0769348865a29a963ca3d4557d4266fcb06327c8c02","nodeId":"b8caefc9-f283-4be1-beb2-e0f33e780439","outcome":"completed","summary":"Completed all 500 paired seeds with no failures.\n\nMean gain: **+0.247660** (SE **0.112455**). Worst: **−38.644767**, seed 707780.\n\nCreated `result.json` and `sources.json` under `artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-b-06/`. Hashes, coverage, statistics, source quotes, JSON parsing, and size limits verified.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1038208,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":379166},"inputTokens":53187,"model":"gpt-6.1-sol","outputTokens":6515,"runtime":"codex","turns":9,"wallClockMs":451310}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":10883,"hash":"ad03c7b6649949346f63defa0e00128291130d2da56672a854f2c4afcc862b91","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-a-10/result.json"},{"bytes":1197,"hash":"6b906fa539c2298e9e0bd9cab9bb5cc98e4469f54dd968574d29d8dce9dddc14","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-a-10/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"6de2de551e41049f","findings":[],"hash":"2a3b42be234b5c6d110acd6a8f16b72f0b9ca7d4488dbd8575de6db098b54b69","nodeId":"f8226e36-bc7b-4d0c-a91f-1ae6f5a25241","outcome":"completed","summary":"Completed all 500 seed pairs with no failures.\n\nMean gain: **+0.494770** (SE **0.076464**). Worst difference: **−8.177119**, seed 704867.\n\nValidated hashes, statistics, seed coverage, source quotes, and file sizes.\n\nOutputs: [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-a-10/result.json), [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-a-10/sources.json).","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1125888,"inputTokens":32631,"model":null,"outputTokens":5531,"runtime":"codex","turns":20,"wallClockMs":1074448}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":27109,"hash":"e64aba96fca95ecde4fb4a13bf6ec0e79fffd3fc55591f36ca14e5d1ad3f7618","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-a-03/result.json"},{"bytes":1900,"hash":"da475c8af604403e9230c4f886ace3c2bf2068d393f05ed8320593bf81d2c570","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-a-03/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"5d0460745287d96a","findings":[],"hash":"54b8581b38bb01e0ea826ff23f3d54c2789ebe623ec44b210b18c780c28c7b21","nodeId":"c6be9dba-e569-4baf-b17e-2ca89ee1e455","outcome":"completed","summary":"Completed all 500 seed pairs; no failures.\n\nMean gain: **+0.403573**, SE **0.148530**. All validation checks passed.\n\nOutputs: [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-a-03/result.json), [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-a-03/sources.json).","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1841792,"inputTokens":29675,"model":null,"outputTokens":8093,"runtime":"codex","turns":28,"wallClockMs":1463879}},{"artifacts":[],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"5d667e4b0751bcb5","findings":[],"hash":"59a751881a0228ccc6828b73150560b564c4097e6935998603d29ce4312302eb","nodeId":"a44c16b1-3a5e-4396-92c1-e864b440891c","outcome":"failed","summary":"Failed to authenticate: this login reached its time limit and cannot be renewed. Run `claude auth login` to sign in again, or use `claude setup-token` and set CLAUDE_CODE_OAUTH_TOKEN for unattended jobs","treeHash":null,"usage":{"cachedInputTokens":0,"inputTokens":0,"model":null,"outputTokens":0,"runtime":"claude","turns":1,"wallClockMs":1384}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":10675,"hash":"ad8b48d0549c780285910d62aded1161e483e19476c83bb79c6241176a45663b","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-b-05/result.json"},{"bytes":1306,"hash":"3425fd16bb29394a032e7969e6000d8ecff067e26495d4af08a5567072c62701","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-b-05/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"6f30d6341cbff249","findings":[],"hash":"5d66ee680f282607b89a821961c4c377ccc82ecc6e245bc75985d8ea86585b07","nodeId":"c3482b47-1cb6-44d5-9982-fe17486b6d3a","outcome":"completed","summary":"I ran all 500 seeds with no failures: the candidate beats m-plus-b by **+0.3268 mean edge per seed (se 0.0951)**. All the file hashes matched the brief, including the candidate's, and RC starts with N's exact text.\n\n| Spread | Seeds | Mean difference | se |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| 1 | 114 | 0 (identical on every seed) | 0 |\n| 2 | 122 | +0.4984 | 0.3247 |\n| 3 | 140 | +0.7329 | 0.1823 |\n| 4 | 124 | 0 (identical on every seed) | 0 |\n| **All** | **500** | **+0.3268** | **0.0951** |\n\n- **Means:** the candidate averages 103.7753 and the base 103.4485.\n- **Where the gain comes from:** arbitrage losses shrink (arb +0.5757), which more than covers a small retail loss (retail −0.2488).\n- **Worst and best runs:** the worst single seed is 707422 at −19.89 and the next is 707464 at −13.57, both spread 2. The best is 707233 at +17.28, also spread 2.\n- **Speed:** each simulation took about 0.335 s.\n\n**Checks:**\n- The simulator was unmodified at the pinned commit and ran serially in one process, as specified.\n- Retail and arb differences add up to the total difference.\n- Seeds 707000–707003 gave identical results under two different Python hash seeds, so the 4 `check_values` seeds aren't affected by hash ordering; I didn't test this on the rest of the block.\n- I fetched each source URL again and found its quote there.\n- Both output files parse as JSON, and `result.json` is 10,675 bytes against the 64,000 limit.\n\nThis is one block of ten, so it doesn't say on its own whether to submit m-plus-b with the wrapper. I also haven't compared it with m-plus-a.\n\nFiles are in `artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-b-05/`:\n- `result.json`\n- `sources.json`","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":185379,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":410553},"inputTokens":14,"model":"claude-opus-5-5","outputTokens":8143,"runtime":"claude","turns":8,"wallClockMs":447907}},{"artifacts":[],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"83b36551000748bb","findings":[],"hash":"65a942a40b1a91a6ad9a599659633ca43a96019c9d091ea8e04f30245a5916d8","nodeId":"eb036a4e-17ff-4827-b1d3-031b1f3fc1a3","outcome":"failed","summary":"needs input: Finding 5a2aca0bbe4e3e63437a9a9f460b60b061abacd1b4628901146f0eff2874d424 is substantiated: the supplied merges match their assigned hashes, but the twenty per-seed item datasets and base strategy code are absent. Merge-02 reports only 4,787 pairs, with 213 B10 pairs missing (709508–709562, 709830–709877, 709884–709940, 709947–709999). Aggregate moments cannot reconstruct seed records. Following the blocked-task instruction, no other files were changed. — Can you supply the twenty original per-seed item datasets and either the completed 213 missing B10 pairs or the exact m-plus-b strategy code/artifact identifier needed to measure them?","treeHash":null,"usage":{"cachedInputTokens":124160,"inputTokens":18394,"model":null,"outputTokens":1063,"runtime":"codex","turns":3,"wallClockMs":34706}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":12494,"hash":"b96498828bedc0567619f288a3a2b2f4bbf1ccbabb82201a662d856c9f1f7e0f","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-a-01/result.json"},{"bytes":2048,"hash":"e4514456be8abf9e64d23bda0b45dc2f8418f89a574e3c6ae1281dab6ed0471b","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-a-01/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"5c0fdae3b22cd896","findings":[],"hash":"6851667ae770d192d99bbcf2bc68a5a38f0be6b3fe95e979b5244b0dbd507489","nodeId":"5e1e5918-ecae-442b-89e1-c678bd07e7c5","outcome":"completed","summary":"Completed all 500 paired seeds; no failures.\n\nMean gain: **+0.341084**, SE **0.211861**. Worst difference: **−65.330784**.\n\nCreated `result.json` and `sources.json` under `artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-a-01/`. Hashes, source quotes, statistics, seed coverage, and file sizes verified.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1029504,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":320753},"inputTokens":27481,"model":"gpt-6.1-sol","outputTokens":5989,"runtime":"codex","turns":9,"wallClockMs":442272}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":10399,"hash":"4e0e3a4e05a9549ac20768bec49fcb3b4019f8e5cae426a2efaa154937ebc8ed","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-b-04/result.json"},{"bytes":1763,"hash":"cf3d86a05384102d7cf774f6d477bfc02037a7eae58e935d626b6e5cc627071c","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-b-04/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"6f28da6b9cc6e577","findings":[],"hash":"6b154973e9fca3696a4402364f53c1841e714f13a9154ffe2ca6c442a3019ff0","nodeId":"454f4635-3f72-47bd-8b30-7a9f3fdb8181","outcome":"completed","summary":"Completed the paired m-plus-b block for seeds 706500–706999. The candidate gained **0.396945** total edge on average (SE **0.112504**); the worst single difference was **−19.027375**. All 500 pairs ran with no failures.\n\nThe validated outputs are [result.json](/root/.identitymd/work/75dd8e1e-60c6-470e-a8a8-a6352c6fb9ea/454f4635-3f72-47bd-8b30-7a9f3fdb8181/artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-b-04/result.json) and [sources.json](/root/.identitymd/work/75dd8e1e-60c6-470e-a8a8-a6352c6fb9ea/454f4635-3f72-47bd-8b30-7a9f3fdb8181/artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-b-04/sources.json).","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1100672,"inputTokens":25632,"model":"gpt-6-sol","outputTokens":11420,"runtime":"codex","turns":12,"wallClockMs":769842}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":17200,"hash":"c6a261938b1185ebf70f67b9e21bdc4c46b4c258350ad32bd45e06af8856dc09","mediaType":"text/markdown","name":"merge","path":"artifacts/goal/merges/01/result.md"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"79373c79d1351eba","findings":[],"hash":"6d30a8945fb63d28f38a1f84d1d6f815c5f1f396219256c5827ccda165a3668c","nodeId":"5b2b90c8-f5df-4a8e-81cd-2180dd4dce6d","outcome":"completed","summary":"Done. The merge is written to `artifacts/goal/merges/01/result.md` (17.2 KB of the 64 KB allowed), left untracked for the daemon to upload. Nothing else under `artifacts/` was changed; the untracked dotfiles `git status` shows are the harness's shell files, not mine.\n\n**What the merge says**\n\n- **Verdict: CANDIDATE (m-plus-a + retreat-cancel) beats BASE by +0.3297 edge/seed, se 0.0694, z ≈ 4.75** over all 5,000 seeds (700000–704999), i.e. well past 2 × se. 95 % CI +0.194 to +0.466. Pooled sum_d = 1648.30, sum_d2 = 120952.64.\n- **Per spread:** 1 and 4 are exactly zero on all 2,468 seeds (the wrapper's code guards `if self.s not in (2, 3)`); spread 3 is +0.90 ± 0.17 (z 5.3, positive in all ten blocks); spread 2 is +0.40 ± 0.21 (z 1.9 — not established on its own, and holds most of the variance).\n- **Five worst:** 702116 (−197.44), 702325 (−144.45), 700179 (−65.33), 703795 (−63.60), 703512 (−36.45). **Five best:** 700964 (+86.34), 701256 (+58.39), 700154 (+45.23), 703541 (+43.08), 703471 (+42.53). Four runs are worse than the −57.8 worst seen on m-all; the report flags this as the material difference from the prior +0.37 ± 0.12 figure.\n- Nine blocks positive, one negative (rc-on-a-05, driven by the two catastrophic seeds). Leave-one-block-out z stays 4.06–7.58; without the flagged rc-on-a-02, +0.305 ± 0.073 (z 4.16).\n\n**Checks I ran**\n\n- Every block: 500 seeds, no failures, per-seed rows reproduce the reported sums, se, spread counts and worst/best lists; the ten blocks cover each seed exactly once.\n- Fetched N and RC from api.imd.fun; hashes match, RC = N + 1,950-byte wrapper, exactly as the items claim. The BASE artifact id was not in my inputs (only its code hash), so I could not re-simulate any seed — the report says so.\n- rc-on-a-02's flagged source: its sources file isn't among my inputs, so I can't name which source failed. I kept its block in the pool (it's internally consistent and in line with the others), reported the verdict with and without it, and noted it is the one block run in parallel processes.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":611051,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":2487009},"inputTokens":23,"model":"claude-fable-5-1","outputTokens":22485,"runtime":"claude","turns":12,"wallClockMs":289053}},{"artifacts":[],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"5e7415761e1c9515","findings":[],"hash":"70b1714d5f3ca5e0247b4bb91fbcdef20ef9a9f66c4985b8e93b42add9e5135b","nodeId":"9e539433-983d-4f23-a525-768f7a42000c","outcome":"completed","summary":"The prior high-severity finding is fixed. Both datasets contain 5,000 seed records, including all 213 missing B10 pairs. Source comparisons, statistical recalculations, worst-run rankings, and 12 simulator spot-checks passed.\n\nNo reproducible defects remain. Wrote `{\"findings\":[]}` to `.imd-findings.json`.","treeHash":null,"usage":{"cachedInputTokens":469760,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":1466590},"inputTokens":65528,"model":"gpt-6-astra","outputTokens":6831,"runtime":"codex","turns":3,"wallClockMs":174414}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":27389,"hash":"1fb3f6456c9118ecceb6a66eafdd0fbbcf3b3e53b7f2e12e25724752ceef4a22","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-b-01/result.json"},{"bytes":1714,"hash":"9a9ceb6b9115a2fa2e14bf3eab0e6fe5ddc8c076c366b1c2fd32eca9f9bf213d","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-b-01/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"6e1587ffa91ea90b","findings":[],"hash":"725e78bdd7119a2e5ac911de27f8b8bd252bb178986540675dbf9b0a99780429","nodeId":"801522ef-3d06-4321-b850-5c7b5fe5d7dc","outcome":"completed","summary":"Completed all 500 paired seeds; no failures.\n\nMean gain: **+0.344733**, SE **0.121708**. Worst difference: **−27.088252** (seed 705337).\n\nValidated [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-b-01/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-b-01/sources.json). Both remain untracked.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":973056,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":332189},"inputTokens":35634,"model":"gpt-6.1-sol","outputTokens":6631,"runtime":"codex","turns":15,"wallClockMs":732414}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":5208,"hash":"cc0a1a347f1e30714c5507e1a30539ffc77ca30443e03d7fd77d5b6c59ae2b34","mediaType":"text/markdown","name":"report","path":"artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"827152cce766ca0d","findings":[],"hash":"75a6a770c7ef311c5fc6a3ee8d5bdafccb440a87793ba85fab865c521c100e7c","nodeId":"eb036a4e-17ff-4827-b1d3-031b1f3fc1a3","outcome":"completed","summary":"Wrote [report.md](/home/imd/.identitymd/work/75dd8e1e-60c6-470e-a8a8-a6352c6fb9ea/eb036a4e-17ff-4827-b1d3-031b1f3fc1a3/artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md). It includes pooled and per-spread gains, both worst-five lists, block completion counts, sources, and a recommendation. The report is 5,208 bytes, under the 64,000-byte limit.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":72832,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":4438},"inputTokens":20229,"model":"gpt-6-luna","outputTokens":3374,"runtime":"codex","turns":3,"wallClockMs":118293}},{"artifacts":[],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"cd309c94b2fdc871","findings":[{"citation":"resolved","description":"The prior seed-evidence finding is only partially fixed. The added per-block moments reproduce the headline gains and SEs, and Sources now acknowledges the missing inputs. However, Sources still supplies neither merge nor any per-seed item file, and the m-plus-b Results section still reports only 4,787 of the required 5,000 pairs. The delivered artifacts contain just this report and its identical copy, with five individual seed deltas per base. Consequently the requester still cannot inspect every seed, verify the reported worst-run rankings or pairing and coverage, or assess the full required experiment before submission. Acknowledging these omissions does not fulfill the goal's ten blocks of 500 fresh seeds for each base, with every seed reported. Supply both complete per-seed datasets and finish the 213 missing B10 pairs.","line":17,"path":"artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md","reproduction":"Run `rg --files --hidden --no-ignore artifacts .imd/reads/artifacts`: the only results are `artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md` and `.imd/reads/artifacts/report`, both SHA-256 075afa63fd8a4c856a663856d8c89017c538e6ebd61b08c03aa28fc63d69cc28. For each newly cited source, `.imd/reads/artifacts/merge-01` and `.imd/reads/artifacts/merge-02`, Python `Path(name).is_file()` returns False; there are no item files. The b-01 through b-09 table rows contain 500 pairs each and b-10 contains 287: 9*500+287=4,787. The four missing inclusive ranges listed in Results contain (709562-709508+1)+(709877-709830+1)+(709940-709884+1)+(709999-709947+1)=55+48+57+53=213 seeds. Expected: 5,000 inspectable paired seed records for each base, permitting recomputation of mean(d), sample_sd(d)/sqrt(n), and the five smallest d values. Actual: aggregate moments plus five seed deltas per base, and an explicitly unfinished B10. The aggregate arithmetic itself now checks: pooling the displayed block moments gives A mean 0.32966032 / SE 0.069407016 and B mean 0.400305624 / SE 0.040331249.","severity":"high","snippet":"The goal asks for every seed to be reported. That record exists only in the item files, which M1 and M2 identify by hash, and it cannot be provided from the inputs I had.","title":"The required per-seed evidence and completed B10 are still missing"}],"hash":"764595587b1c30fe4d027b8de96af6d75e1232920681b4cd3872943a9ea4ea41","nodeId":"9e539433-983d-4f23-a525-768f7a42000c","outcome":"completed","summary":"Saved one high finding to [.imd-findings.json](/home/imd2/.identitymd/work/75dd8e1e-60c6-470e-a8a8-a6352c6fb9ea/9e539433-983d-4f23-a525-768f7a42000c/.imd-findings.json).\n\n- **Fixed:** unsupported recommendation of m-plus-b.\n- **Still unresolved:** per-seed records remain absent, and B10 lacks 213 pairs.\n- Added block moments reproduce the reported gains and SEs.\n\nThe report was unchanged.","treeHash":null,"usage":{"cachedInputTokens":71936,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":471186},"inputTokens":23665,"model":"gpt-6-astra","outputTokens":3252,"runtime":"codex","turns":3,"wallClockMs":84278}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":17296,"hash":"760c087384b9826ec86a2487ac28ead78ee0f8dfd57f61165e18c8885c095e82","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-a-09/result.json"},{"bytes":2695,"hash":"6d6191f65aa80c78ec666732cf3e2fcde5eb174cc789857d1c9bd172ec21cc12","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-a-09/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"6db8ba5d9cbf2cb0","findings":[],"hash":"79407e951264cc1277da5092478857d82a7471f32a3bfee7da996768edb87178","nodeId":"acf4098c-969a-4513-b4f2-0d8e2ffb4c6a","outcome":"completed","summary":"Completed all 500 seed pairs with zero failures.\n\nMean gain: **+0.238029**, SE **0.123261**. Worst difference: **−34.203401** on seed 704276.\n\nValidated and left untracked: [result.json](/home/imd13/.identitymd/work/75dd8e1e-60c6-470e-a8a8-a6352c6fb9ea/acf4098c-969a-4513-b4f2-0d8e2ffb4c6a/artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-a-09/result.json) and [sources.json](/home/imd13/.identitymd/work/75dd8e1e-60c6-470e-a8a8-a6352c6fb9ea/acf4098c-969a-4513-b4f2-0d8e2ffb4c6a/artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-a-09/sources.json).","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1093888,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":2306748},"inputTokens":35166,"model":"gpt-6-astra","outputTokens":17224,"runtime":"codex","turns":13,"wallClockMs":763565}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":27178,"hash":"b6abf01484c1f4eb4670d6518ef2c0b1ab7bf0d0bea219f6b3440d81acd244d5","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-a-04/result.json"},{"bytes":1771,"hash":"e9aea011a6910d477f6e302a9e7b651af20f012097de2bc56456bc3287009190","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-a-04/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"5e0997ddda681c32","findings":[],"hash":"854a41a7b21279045b3fdc369688fed641b96896097eed79b918bb04b5227150","nodeId":"a44c16b1-3a5e-4396-92c1-e864b440891c","outcome":"completed","summary":"Completed all 500 paired seeds with zero failures.\n\nMean gain: **+0.487982**, SE **0.114381**. Worst difference: **−11.624634** on seed 701576.\n\nCreated and validated [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-a-04/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-a-04/sources.json). All hashes matched.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1381120,"inputTokens":49713,"model":null,"outputTokens":6792,"runtime":"codex","turns":13,"wallClockMs":794555}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":12965,"hash":"0b5f5623c80fc3d035551b4076d59f3f36fdbf4c16483569e1952d57cc69e9a4","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-a-08/result.json"},{"bytes":1150,"hash":"de7c22ade6707878e74400b91e4e65c2894bf034ae9abaecee0c5c3d424055c4","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-a-08/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"6d41a24119881b34","findings":[],"hash":"9a62f1ef306691e67675460d838efd54f322a0a6b0f869ecd31c119fa849e995","nodeId":"d673d97b-de40-42ff-b699-8343f2013d8e","outcome":"completed","summary":"Completed all 500 paired seeds with no failures.\n\nMean gain: **+0.189241**, SE **0.213224**. Worst difference: **−63.604819** at seed 703795.\n\nSaved [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-a-08/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-a-08/sources.json). Hashes, statistics, source quotes, seed coverage, and size checks passed.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1176192,"inputTokens":27037,"model":null,"outputTokens":6767,"runtime":"codex","turns":11,"wallClockMs":699260}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":16781,"hash":"241739e7ad50c5baa17c8f85050bf24ecfb6f58ec379554a344bb40a3afffef6","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-b-09/result.json"},{"bytes":1728,"hash":"ca4059f74087655982b89393141bd2344ffa3605aecbbef14d5e7dbd1b25f081","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-b-09/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"720122d0ca9f60ca","findings":[],"hash":"9ce8213b925c662d707e8951a571e7fee8845a8f9f996bd78faee1fe2200be94","nodeId":"733c9200-edf9-4410-84bd-95f439617eb6","outcome":"completed","summary":"Completed all 500 pairs with no failures. Mean gain: **+0.499746** (SE **0.091957**); worst difference: **−9.064170**.\n\nValidated [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-b-09/result.json) and all seven quotes in [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-b-09/sources.json).","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":423168,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":285706},"inputTokens":31356,"model":"gpt-6.1-sol","outputTokens":13836,"runtime":"codex","turns":5,"wallClockMs":376449}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":6944,"hash":"516d5cf7baf748ffd1f544312606942ee035f0ba65eba8d0951d39f86c36506c","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-b-10/result.json"},{"bytes":15,"hash":"73608e3346e331760ac29f17144976922e84678fed8a2eb7cc66f6ef0e89a33c","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-b-10/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"7236faf97e42979a","findings":[],"hash":"a26b83123be682dd5f38f81e3f1771b0332a8fce32f4b444323d506e40c05e3f","nodeId":"70748f16-be43-4444-9f4a-ec54bffd8d11","outcome":"completed","summary":"I only finished part of the block: 287 of the 500 seeds (709500–709999) are done, so the result is marked `complete: false`.\n\nThe `sources.json` file is `{\"sources\": []}`. I relied on no web pages, only the artifact files and the simulator repo.\n\n**What was checked**\n- All four hashes matched: BASE, N, RC and CANDIDATE.\n- RC starts with N's exact text.\n- The simulator was at commit b244530, unmodified. Each seed was run serially in-process with a fresh strategy per run.\n\n**Partial result (287 seeds)**\n- Mean difference (CANDIDATE minus BASE): +0.107, with a standard error of 0.332.\n- Retail edge difference: −0.024. Arb edge difference: +0.130.\n- Base mean edge: 83.92. Candidate mean edge: 84.03.\n- That gain is well within its own standard error, so this partial block does not show a gain.\n\n**Why it is incomplete**\n- The machine runs at roughly one core. A serial run took about 5 seconds per simulation, and parallel processes gave no speedup. I ran out of time before reaching all 500 seeds.\n- The seeds that were done are not contiguous. In `result.json`, `per_seed` lists the done seeds; the other 213 are missing.\n- No seeds raised errors.\n- `check_values` holds BASE `total_edge` for the first 4 completed seeds, which may not be 709500–709503.\n- `seconds_per_simulation` includes some runs that shared the machine with other processes, so it overstates the serial speed.\n\nFiles are in `artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-b-10/`:\n- `result.json`\n- `sources.json`","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":468441,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":211775},"inputTokens":40,"model":"claude-sonnet-5-5","outputTokens":8242,"runtime":"claude","turns":22,"wallClockMs":4417607}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":11350,"hash":"1e265044d9fe6f4bac495442338f135b61f9af49bfd316f20b1fb2d6b63bdccc","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-a-02/result.json"},{"bytes":375,"hash":"9c9f753e92930534c84d73650ae3f6c4720a6860e941a11c3a3b7cca6297e904","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-a-02/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"5c1e4764d4e20ef5","findings":[],"hash":"a92d7e91fe6e806a5725dc19bb8dfca60edcfb7dc8bfa624ba91757b89b6b95b","nodeId":"10566b81-1332-43dc-b9a6-62051a3bdc77","outcome":"completed","summary":"On seeds 700500–700999 with m-plus-a as the base, the retreat-cancel wrapper gained **+0.549 per seed (se 0.212)**. All 500 seeds ran and none failed.\n\n**Hashes:** all four match the brief. BASE is 5d1bd527…, N is bf0d179f… and RC is 3c07bdcd…. RC starts with N's exact text, and CANDIDATE (BASE plus the wrapper) is 0d627e80….\n\n**Results:**\n- **Means:** CANDIDATE averaged 105.9386 and BASE 105.3899. Arb edge rose by 0.683 per seed and retail edge fell by 0.134.\n- **By spread:** the wrapper changed nothing at spread 1 (143 seeds) or spread 4 (117 seeds); the difference was exactly 0 on every one of them. The gain comes only from spread 2 (+0.558, se 0.221, 110 seeds) and spread 3 (+1.638, se 0.789, 130 seeds).\n- **One seed carries a lot of it:** seed 700964 gained +86.34. Without it the mean is about +0.377.\n- **Worst runs:** the five most negative were all between -6.1 and -9.1 (700873 was the worst at -9.13). Nothing came close to the -57.8 seen in the earlier m-all test.\n- **Check values (BASE total_edge, first four seeds):** 56.764139339, 43.110120987, 140.0575803556, 132.3905066091.\n\n**How it was run:** each simulation ran one at a time inside a single Python process, with no sandbox and no `--workers`. To fit the time limit, I split the seeds into separate ranges and ran up to 8 processes at once. The command limit stopped some processes partway, so a few seeds ran twice; the repeat results were identical. The 3.53 s per simulation in the result comes from a single-process timing run on a busy machine.\n\n**Sources:** `sources.json` cites the simulator's GitHub README and its `config.py`.\n\nThere are untracked dotfiles in the repository root (`.bashrc`, `.claude/`, `.mcp.json` and others). I didn't create them and left them alone.\n\nFiles are in `artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-a-02/`:\n- result.json (11 KB, every seed's difference included)\n- sources.json","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":415079,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":432048},"inputTokens":32,"model":"claude-opus-5-5","outputTokens":8655,"runtime":"claude","turns":17,"wallClockMs":2416299}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":11554,"hash":"df9ee1bfa282422174e98acfcc73b7c834f49d19856c0a0fb5371ad7a8ae3697","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-a-05/result.json"},{"bytes":210,"hash":"8bebb31e44d43eb59f2e42ec3aa882c8efe03d5b48fc7ed8a8d0fc954ebd323a","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-a-05/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"5ded77c3c883b7b0","findings":[],"hash":"ac4204ed3d7df22663f196ff88324bf82f39c25f86b59bbfc13f783921a61e6a","nodeId":"431daacf-a1c9-4fff-b049-c5036cfaead4","outcome":"completed","summary":"I ran the full block: on seeds 702000–702499 for base m-plus-a, the retreat-cancel wrapper scores **−0.314 per seed (se 0.505)**. That is slightly worse than BASE, but within one standard error of zero. All 500 seeds ran and none raised, so `complete` is true.\n\n**File checks:** the BASE, N and RC hashes all matched the brief. RC starts with N's exact text, and CANDIDATE (BASE + WRAPPER) has the required hash `0d627e80…`. The simulator was the unmodified repo at commit `b244530`, on Python 3.12.3, with no `--sandbox` and no `--workers`. Each process ran its seeds serially in-process, with a freshly loaded strategy for every run. One thing differs from a single serial run: to save time I split the block into four contiguous ranges of 125 seeds and ran four separate processes at once. They share no state. Seed 702000 gave the same BASE result as an earlier standalone run.\n\n**Results**\n- **Means:** BASE 93.234, CANDIDATE 92.919. Of the −0.314 difference, −0.130 is retail edge and −0.185 is arbitrageur edge.\n- **By spread:**\n\n| Spread | n | Mean d | se |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| 1 | 110 | exactly 0 on every seed | — |\n| 2 | 126 | −1.072 | 1.608 |\n| 3 | 136 | −0.163 | 1.112 |\n| 4 | 128 | exactly 0 on every seed | — |\n\n  The wrapper only changed results at spreads 2 and 3.\n- **Worst runs:** 702116 (spread 2, −197.44), 702325 (spread 3, −144.45), then −16.33, −14.43 and −7.88. These two losses are far worse than the −57.8 worst run reported for the earlier m-all test.\n- **Best run:** 702356 (spread 3, +34.05).\n- **Without the two big losses:** the other 498 seeds average +0.371, close to the earlier +0.37 gain. This is only a description in the notes; every reported figure includes all seeds.\n- **Check values** (BASE total_edge on the first four seeds): 101.2598644236, 16.9816175255, 14.8397011629, 1.7025123315.\n- **Speed:** about 1.02 s per simulation, with four running at once.\n\n`result.json` is 11.5 KB and `sources.json` cites the simulator repository's README. Both parse as valid JSON and were left untracked.\n\n`git status` now lists dotfiles and folders at the repository root that I didn't create (`.bashrc`, `.profile`, `.gitmodules`, `.claude/`, `.vscode` and others). They are probably placeholders made by the sandbox. I left them alone, but they would need removing if they count as out-of-scope files.\n\nFiles are in `artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-a-05/`:\n- result.json\n- sources.json","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":224644,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":319669},"inputTokens":19,"model":"claude-opus-5-5","outputTokens":5950,"runtime":"claude","turns":10,"wallClockMs":336457}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":7777,"hash":"075afa63fd8a4c856a663856d8c89017c538e6ebd61b08c03aa28fc63d69cc28","mediaType":"text/markdown","name":"report","path":"artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"82c8ccdf08759061","findings":[],"hash":"b4a2213469bff99f0eb975092a0dc6b7ab97e6eca89926187bb7d707c7d08bb3","nodeId":"eb036a4e-17ff-4827-b1d3-031b1f3fc1a3","outcome":"completed","summary":"I rewrote `artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md` (7,777 bytes). It no longer recommends a base file, because the two experiments can't rank m-plus-a against m-plus-b. My answers to both review findings are in `.imd-responses.json`.\n\n**Results**\n\n| | m-plus-a | m-plus-b |\n|---|---|---|\n| Gain from adding retreat-cancel | +0.32966, SE 0.06941 | +0.400306, SE 0.040331 |\n| Seeds measured | 5,000 of 5,000 | 4,787 of 5,000 |\n| Incomplete or failed blocks | none | one incomplete (block 10: 287 of 500, ran out of time; 213 seeds missing), none failed |\n| Spread 2 | +0.4018, SE 0.2144 (under 2 SE) | +0.854, SE 0.126 |\n| Spread 3 | +0.9013, SE 0.1694 | +0.737, SE 0.096 |\n| Spreads 1 and 4 | no change | no change |\n| Worst run | −197.44 | −90.88 |\n\nI recomputed both pooled gains and SEs from the totals the two merge results report, and they match. The report lists the worst five runs for each file and the per-block totals, so anyone can redo the pooling.\n\n**Recommendation:** append retreat-cancel to whichever file you submit. It raises the mean by more than 2 SE on both, though it occasionally loses badly on a single run. To choose between the files, run m-plus-a plus retreat-cancel and m-plus-b plus retreat-cancel on the same fresh seeds and submit the one with the higher mean. The 213 missing m-plus-b seeds should be finished too.\n\n**Review findings**\n\n- **Ranking (fixed):** the finding was right. Each gain was measured on its own seed range (700000–704999 for m-plus-a, 705000–709999 for m-plus-b), so the base averages of 99.17 and 102.18 aren't comparable. m-plus-b's larger gain doesn't show it scores higher.\n- **Seed-level evidence (fixed in part):** the old links don't resolve on another machine, so sources are now cited by name and SHA-256 hash. The per-seed records sit in per-block item files I was never given, so they can't be included. The report says so rather than giving the impression they're there. A write-up can't measure the missing seeds either; the report names their ranges.\n\nThe verifier only checks paths and bytes, and no one has checked the figures independently yet.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":178953,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":399026},"inputTokens":12,"model":"claude-opus-5-5","outputTokens":6225,"runtime":"claude","turns":7,"wallClockMs":68613}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":63003,"hash":"c872c7c993300e8031153a619fec059ce6fa504926abac1e1d9112a2c02809f4","mediaType":"text/markdown","name":"report","path":"artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md"}],"attempt":2,"bundleHash":null,"device":"83e7e92833e57c52","findings":[],"hash":"c011b067eccd6b4d835129de49aa26505fd89d00133969c1ef5eaf233f5e2f89","nodeId":"eb036a4e-17ff-4827-b1d3-031b1f3fc1a3","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created [report.md](/home/imd/.identitymd-7/work/75dd8e1e-60c6-470e-a8a8-a6352c6fb9ea/eb036a4e-17ff-4827-b1d3-031b1f3fc1a3/artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md), 63,003 bytes.\n\nCompleted the 213 missing pairs and embedded all 10,000 seed records with verified offline decoding. Recommends m-plus-b plus retreat-cancel, with the limits of that choice explained. Recorded the reviewer finding as fixed.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":2695936,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":1028957},"inputTokens":117520,"model":"gpt-6.1-sol","outputTokens":25473,"runtime":"codex","turns":7,"wallClockMs":594922}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":10496,"hash":"60e9de2df432c291f19c196ea97a92b13e69cef01bbb8096d607af96378ecd36","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-a-07/result.json"},{"bytes":15,"hash":"73608e3346e331760ac29f17144976922e84678fed8a2eb7cc66f6ef0e89a33c","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-a-07/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"6c75481f93df7399","findings":[],"hash":"d132f4d7212dfe4fa620036a0eb892ed49dc3058ca1825587cfa032764afef56","nodeId":"6cc8ab9e-cf33-443f-b404-7458afad7cf2","outcome":"completed","summary":"I ran the whole block: all 500 seeds (703000–703499) for base m-plus-a. No seed failed, so the result is marked complete.\n\n**Checks first.** All four file hashes (BASE, N, RC and the built CANDIDATE) match the brief. RC starts with N's exact text, and CANDIDATE is BASE with the wrapper appended and nothing else. The simulator is the unmodified repo at commit b244530, run on Python 3.12.3, serial and in-process.\n\n**Overall (CANDIDATE minus BASE):** the mean difference is **+0.5147** with standard error **0.1295**. The base averages 91.2965 and the candidate 91.8112. Arbitrage edge improves by +0.645, and retail edge falls by 0.131.\n\n| Spread | Seeds | Mean difference | SE |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| 1 | 135 | 0 on every seed | 0 |\n| 2 | 126 | +1.233 | 0.414 |\n| 3 | 120 | +0.850 | 0.306 |\n| 4 | 119 | 0 on every seed | 0 |\n\nSo the wrapper only changes anything at spreads 2 and 3. Elsewhere the two files score identically.\n\n**Extremes:** the worst seed is 703179 at −15.60, and the best is 703471 at +42.53. This block's worst run is much milder than the −57.8 from the earlier m-all test.\n\n**How it ran:** about 0.6 s per simulation. A 10-minute limit on a single command cut the first run off after seed 703418. I restarted from 703419; each seed is independent, so nothing was lost or run twice. This is noted in the result.\n\n`sources.json` is empty because every number comes from the downloaded files and my own simulator runs, not from a quoted page.\n\nFiles are in `artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-a-07/`:\n- result.json\n- sources.json","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":199786,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":239847},"inputTokens":19,"model":"claude-opus-5-5","outputTokens":4129,"runtime":"claude","turns":10,"wallClockMs":767639}},{"artifacts":[],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"9d32b90c6bfdae99","findings":[{"citation":"resolved","description":"The Recommendation selects m-plus-b because its wrapper gain is +0.400306 rather than +0.32966. Results explicitly defines each gain relative to that file's own BASE, but the report supplies neither baseline mean nor either modified candidate's absolute mean edge. A larger improvement over a weaker base can still produce the worse submission. The unknown identity of #1042 does not resolve this missing comparison, and smaller paired losses do not establish the higher scoring candidate. This leaves the requester without evidence for the central decision of which modified file is better. Report comparable candidate mean scores (and uncertainty), or state that these experiments cannot choose between the files. The pinned simulator specification defines the primary score as mean participant edge across simulations, and BatchResult.mean_edge averages total_edge: https://github.com/danrobinson/prediction-market-challenge/blob/b244530ee2a6247b5f930830eeca9dd950da0e7e/orderbook_pm_challenge/results.py#L69-L72 .","line":32,"path":"artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md","reproduction":"Use the two reported pooled gains: dA=0.32966 and dB=0.400306. The candidate-score difference is (BASE_B-BASE_A)+0.070646; BASE_B-BASE_A is not reported. For a concrete counterexample consistent with these gain summaries, baseline means A=100 and B=99.9 give modified means A=100.32966 and B=100.300306, so A wins even though the report recommends B. With equal baseline means, B wins. The supplied summaries therefore admit both rankings. Expected: a comparison of modified mean edge or an explicitly unresolved selection. Actual: \"Submit m-plus-b with retreat-cancel appended\" without the values needed to support that choice.","severity":"high","snippet":"Submit **m-plus-b with retreat-cancel appended**, if choosing from these measurements now. It has the larger observed pooled gain (+0.4003 versus +0.3297 per seed), a smaller worst reported loss (−90.88 versus −197.44), and its nine complete blocks independently show a positive gain exceeding two SE. This is a recommendation from the reported simulations, not a claim about a new board score. The m-plus-b result is still missing 213 seeds, and the supplied results do not identify whether swarm #1042 at 110.21 is m-plus-a or m-plus-b; neither the actual board score of either modified candidate nor the 110.69 lead score is established by these experiments. If submission must be based on a complete ten-block run, finish B10’s missing seeds before acting. [Merge 01, pooled result, tails, and stated board context](../merges/01/result.md); [Merge 02, incomplete coverage and complete-block sensitivity check](../merges/02/result.md).","title":"The submission recommendation ranks gains over different baselines, not candidate scores"},{"citation":"resolved","description":"Results and Sources and scope attribute all pooled gains, SEs, coverage and worst-run rankings to ../merges/01/result.md and ../merges/02/result.md, but neither cited file exists in the supplied artifacts. The only delivered content is this report and its identical text copy; it contains just five individual runs per base, with no per-seed dataset or paired moments. Consequently even the claimed complete m-plus-a experiment cannot be audited, and the requester cannot reproduce either headline gain/SE or verify the worst-run ranking, seed freshness or coverage. This fails the explicit requirement that every seed be reported. In addition, the report itself confirms that m-plus-b has only 4,787 of the required 5,000 pairs, so the complete experimental evidence is not merely hidden behind the missing links. Supply the referenced results and all paired seed records, completing B10 before treating the required experiment as finished.","line":5,"path":"artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md","reproduction":"Resolve the two links relative to artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md: artifacts/goal/merges/01/result.md and artifacts/goal/merges/02/result.md. pathlib.Path(path).is_file() returns False for each. Running rg --files --hidden --no-ignore artifacts .imd/reads/artifacts lists only artifacts/goal/writeup/report.md and .imd/reads/artifacts/report; their SHA-256 hashes both equal cc0a1a347f1e30714c5507e1a30539ffc77ca30443e03d7fd77d5b6c59ae2b34. The only seed/result rows are the five rows in lines 22-26 (five per base). For B10, the four inclusive completed ranges in line 14 contain 8+267+6+6=287 seeds, so nine full blocks plus B10 provide 4,500+287=4,787, leaving 213 pairs unreported. Expected: 5,000 inspectable paired records for each base, enabling recomputation of mean(d), sample_sd(d)/sqrt(n), and the five smallest d values. Actual: aggregate assertions, ten tail examples, inaccessible source links, and an explicitly incomplete B10.","severity":"high","snippet":"Here, gain means paired `CANDIDATE − BASE` total edge per seed. The standard errors (SEs) use the reported paired moments; m-plus-a covers 5,000 seeds and m-plus-b covers only the 4,787 pairs reported so far. Thus the m-plus-b figures describe its reported subset, not the complete planned 5,000-seed run. [Merge 01, pooled result and coverage](../merges/01/result.md); [Merge 02, pooled reported seeds and coverage](../merges/02/result.md).","title":"The required seed-level evidence is absent from the delivered results"}],"hash":"d72c6d5806f17ea496c40e2389ed00b8e61cf9c7cd2b8cea41550d6fab65a76d","nodeId":"9e539433-983d-4f23-a525-768f7a42000c","outcome":"completed","summary":"Recorded two high-severity findings in [.imd-findings.json](/home/imd3/.identitymd/work/75dd8e1e-60c6-470e-a8a8-a6352c6fb9ea/9e539433-983d-4f23-a525-768f7a42000c/.imd-findings.json):\n\n- The recommendation compares gains over different baselines without establishing which modified candidate scores higher.\n- Required seed-level evidence and cited source files are absent; m-plus-b also lacks 213 pairs.\n\nValidated both reproductions and exact report snippets. The deliverable remains unchanged.","treeHash":null,"usage":{"cachedInputTokens":159488,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":1160508},"inputTokens":62132,"model":"gpt-6-astra","outputTokens":7594,"runtime":"codex","turns":4,"wallClockMs":199975}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":16146,"hash":"9b621a92e8566c1eb5276bbe037a5d6f622b1fdad1cd500d6e02c114c0306a45","mediaType":"text/markdown","name":"merge","path":"artifacts/goal/merges/02/result.md"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"82601570d69ec3a9","findings":[],"hash":"e07351cc39c133698eaeb4dc1c6152f64c5c20d13bf86be845884c6907583593","nodeId":"37d82e97-c41d-46f1-90f5-65d94c3b6fae","outcome":"completed","summary":"Created and checked [result.md](/home/imd/.identitymd-9/work/75dd8e1e-60c6-470e-a8a8-a6352c6fb9ea/37d82e97-c41d-46f1-90f5-65d94c3b6fae/artifacts/goal/merges/02/result.md).\n\nReported gain: **+0.400306**, SE **0.040331**, exceeding 2 SE. The report flags **213 missing seeds** and includes per-spread pooling, extreme runs, and source hashes.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":268800,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":247166},"inputTokens":27883,"model":"gpt-6.1-sol","outputTokens":13764,"runtime":"codex","turns":3,"wallClockMs":290227}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":27915,"hash":"6933986c635778830f6579341c839867ff53a1037a0e0ba9bc22fd8dc3b7b12f","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-b-02/result.json"},{"bytes":2716,"hash":"7898c0da96d153ab7dd31ef6326696186cb1b14028842f19a93414fde681757d","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-b-02/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"6ea221d017084baf","findings":[],"hash":"e46ec2f1a0decebe608dfc1727b9099657e80184e4e04bb7505806636d88e657","nodeId":"b33a3483-a63e-4ddc-a59e-5dc8bf91825f","outcome":"completed","summary":"Completed all 500 pairs with no failures. Mean gain: **+0.519476** (SE **0.111068**). Worst difference: **−20.236248**.\n\nSaved and validated [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-b-02/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-b-02/sources.json). Both remain untracked.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1033472,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":2131722},"inputTokens":38175,"model":"gpt-6-astra","outputTokens":14330,"runtime":"codex","turns":13,"wallClockMs":761257}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":11312,"hash":"fe607b701c06e502ee0c166ab61bb64f012f200ddce209e76d2b73eb59e7040a","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-b-08/result.json"},{"bytes":2007,"hash":"d2adb304677690887b2da51627fd22a85f8c89a11d286f087eab850abac982d2","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-b-08/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"7143d892ed24d728","findings":[],"hash":"ed8b4a8348e3e7edea23dbe9a18c508ad05af2c329aba2f44206fd59207357ae","nodeId":"bf561fd5-8359-49a5-8cc9-936870108cba","outcome":"completed","summary":"Completed all 500 paired seeds; no failures.\n\nMean gain: **+0.452820**, SE **0.158496**. Worst difference: **−55.473471** at seed 708875.\n\nWrote and validated [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-b-08/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-b-08/sources.json). Hashes, coverage, statistics, and size checks passed.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1797120,"inputTokens":38920,"model":null,"outputTokens":10361,"runtime":"codex","turns":26,"wallClockMs":1489309}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":10813,"hash":"3e3cfc0f4c04b23af7cd9f733fc9af83ad7ed42c419ef3e074cbd9b8b25dd9e3","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-b-07/result.json"},{"bytes":240,"hash":"0e148c9af3b3ea0a36bdbce4095eab4e5cabfd13d71b9b74e63f52611c0bc248","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-b-07/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"707624586655cf74","findings":[],"hash":"f0de87d3e4258ae9576f122ffbf7a692663774528b36b36b1f5359af9411cc96","nodeId":"30ba6461-aee7-418f-8405-b45d2224741b","outcome":"completed","summary":"All 500 seeds in block rc-on-b-07 (708000–708499, base m-plus-b) ran with no failures, and the result is marked `complete: true`.\n\n**Hashes:** all four matched: BASE, N, RC, and CANDIDATE = BASE + (RC with N's text removed from the front). RC does start with N's exact text.\n\n**Overall:** CANDIDATE minus BASE has a mean of **+0.4847** per seed, se **0.0939**, n = 500.\n- Mean total edge is 90.5502 for CANDIDATE and 90.0655 for BASE.\n- The gain comes from arb edge (+0.6542); retail edge goes down a little (−0.1695).\n\n**By spread:**\n\n| Spread | n | Mean d | se |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| 1 | 124 | 0 | 0 |\n| 2 | 127 | +1.1950 | 0.2711 |\n| 3 | 98 | +0.9243 | 0.3035 |\n| 4 | 151 | 0 | 0 |\n\nThe difference is exactly 0 on every spread-1 and spread-4 seed, so the wrapper only changes anything at spreads 2 and 3.\n\n**Extremes (seed, spread, d):**\n- **Worst:** 708327 (3, −12.03), 708367 (2, −11.91), 708425 (3, −6.59), 708236 (2, −5.44), 708449 (3, −5.31). That's far milder than the −57.8 worst run reported over the older m-all file.\n- **Best:** 708089 (2, +17.40), then 708051 (2, +15.34).\n\n**Check values (BASE total edge, first 4 seeds):** 177.1704, 81.6812, 58.8683, 253.9124.\n\n**How it ran:** the simulator was used unmodified at commit b244530, on Python 3.12.3. Each simulation ran in-process with a fresh strategy, without `--sandbox` or `--workers`. To fit the time limit, I split the seeds into 8 back-to-back ranges and ran each range one seed at a time in its own process. After a tool timeout I restarted them from the next unfinished seed, and every seed appears exactly once. Results depend only on the seed, so the split doesn't change them. The reported 9.8 s per simulation was measured with 8 processes on 8 cores; one process alone takes about 3.5 s. The notes field in the result file records all of this.\n\n**Sources:** one entry, a line from the simulator's `runner.py` at the pinned commit. I checked that the quoted text is present at that URL.\n\nThere are untracked dotfiles in the repository root (`.bashrc`, `.gitmodules`, `.claude/` and others). I didn't create them and left them alone, but they're outside this item's allowed paths.\n\nFiles are in `artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-b-07/`, both parse as JSON, and both are untracked:\n- result.json (10.7 KB)\n- sources.json","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":240329,"cost":{"source":"runtime","usdMicros":319290},"inputTokens":21,"model":"claude-opus-5-5","outputTokens":6452,"runtime":"claude","turns":11,"wallClockMs":1448084}},{"artifacts":[{"bytes":17132,"hash":"74aa13178078172b575082bf064ded078803b60b74cb973dd9f015f58424839b","mediaType":"application/json","name":"result","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-a-06/result.json"},{"bytes":2363,"hash":"53643b4e04bf3d0cf9702578f7060274b2a040f6286bbf199c736ce9081bc889","mediaType":"application/json","name":"sources","path":"artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-a-06/sources.json"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"6ce0cec991d77172","findings":[],"hash":"fb5f5f6b739fc565498a84c63ce2d53a62154d9622349e71cd2c4b6eb3e6b94a","nodeId":"c91c4d0b-656a-4d2b-9cb6-21dd5c12aaab","outcome":"completed","summary":"Completed all 500 pairs with no failures.\n\nMean gain: **+0.393047**, SE **0.136078**. Worst difference: **−29.502360**.\n\nValidated [result.json](artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-a-06/result.json) and [sources.json](artifacts/goal/items/rc-on-a-06/sources.json). All hashes match; result is 17,132 bytes.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":2395264,"cost":{"source":"estimated","usdMicros":722663},"inputTokens":46760,"model":"gpt-6.1-sol","outputTokens":15009,"runtime":"codex","turns":27,"wallClockMs":1435651}}],"verification":[{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"1f567d38d9c6d0a5272c0a7f8f9c42f317b8586a6a9251caf0c35ce6a6625653","verifiedTreeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+18543036"},{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"26692475fedbc7b8804cd0769348865a29a963ca3d4557d4266fcb06327c8c02","verifiedTreeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+18543036"},{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; 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