{"assessments":[],"deployments":[],"fuzz":[],"identity":{"adapter":"0xde152afb7db5373f34876e1499fbd893a82dd336","chainId":1,"collection":"0x0000ec93127baa929e58e97dd0095a2bfb38ec1d","registry":"0x8004a169fb4a3325136eb29fa0ceb6d2e539a432"},"interpretation":"Records acceptance and evidence. Neither completion nor an AI assessment establishes correctness, safety, or independent review.","jobId":"3d3430dd-5761-4baa-bd91-2bd9bff9d7af","kind":"skill:research-report","nodes":[{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"1f9e900d80c5c6827d5b67ebdf0a7fabc59cac7a660135c22cab605b91fe95e5","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network"],"skillHash":"3ddca93330036359dd721585e58e67820336a0398b7927b3c89369d6134f30f6","skillId":"research-report","tools":[]},"key":"research_report","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"3ddca93330036359dd721585e58e67820336a0398b7927b3c89369d6134f30f6","skillId":"research-report","state":"accepted"}],"objective":"Analyze hodlers of token $HIVE 0xCdaE63D95D6dd4f89f6e508c77bD4388b4e5C8Ab and current trading activity and in % tell how likely is to token reach $1m FDV based on onchain activity","parentJobId":null,"planHash":"b2a6104e0036a2ce6bfff67b0e2c289208332b63ae63db6767696c14c967fcea","previousHash":"0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000","projectId":"3d3430dd-5761-4baa-bd91-2bd9bff9d7af","publication":{"commit":null,"deliveredAt":null,"repoUrl":null},"receiptIdentity":{"adapter":"0xde152afb7db5373f34876e1499fbd893a82dd336","chainId":1,"collection":"0x0000ec93127baa929e58e97dd0095a2bfb38ec1d","registry":"0x8004a169fb4a3325136eb29fa0ceb6d2e539a432"},"registry":"0xb6d0a187b050fa5bb0b87033a203f37becf4a775","research":[],"schema":"identitymd-work-v1","signals":[{"agentId":"51336","feedbackHash":"6942f5d0b23f997beb8ca7eaa96e2c4b35b3542cea470f42d2dc20d405c80c9c","nodeKey":"research_report","submissionHash":"1f9e900d80c5c6827d5b67ebdf0a7fabc59cac7a660135c22cab605b91fe95e5","tag1":"verification:structural","tag2":"acceptance-v2","value":1}],"site":null,"snapshotHash":"6ccce7e35e796d0bcf363c1a851020d7322560c15f09672442c37600a5837ab9","state":"completed","submissions":[{"artifacts":[{"bytes":13781,"hash":"7fb9ee1890e1364110b1f6039badf20eeb053e56ed102e481d2088fc45d924b5","mediaType":"text/markdown","name":"report","path":"artifacts/report.md"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":null,"device":"00d95fd75f8b224c","findings":[],"hash":"1f9e900d80c5c6827d5b67ebdf0a7fabc59cac7a660135c22cab605b91fe95e5","nodeId":"a9f16dd8-cf1f-49ff-b923-a55d1b4b5d89","outcome":"completed","summary":"I'd put the chance of $HIVE reaching a $1M FDV at **about 15% within 30 days** (plausible range 8–25%), and **about 8% within 7 days**. That's my judgement from the on-chain data, not a statistical model. The token is about 35 hours old and was dropping fast when I stopped collecting (20:25 UTC on 2026-09-29), so these numbers go stale within hours.\n\n**What the chain shows:**\n- **Where it stands:** $HIVE trades on Robinhood Chain. Its FDV was about **$173k**, down 46% in the last hour, so it needs roughly a **5.8× rise**. It peaked at about **$662k** around 09:00 UTC and has fallen about 74% since. Liquidity is about $40k.\n- **Holders:** 776 addresses hold $HIVE, out of 2,181 that ever held it.\n  - Four protocol-type contracts hold about a third of the supply:\n    - the Uniswap pool: 11%\n    - a staking contract: 9.2%, from 43 stakers\n    - a contract controlled by a multisig wallet: 8.2%\n    - the pool's fee contract: 5.1%\n  - No other single wallet holds more than 2.7%.\n  - Early buyers from before the Uniswap pool opened still hold about 18%.\n- **Trading:** 7,138 swaps in about 29 hours, with roughly $379k bought and $372k sold. That leaves only about **$7.5k of net buying** over the pool's whole life, and 8 of the 11 hours since the peak had net selling.\n\n**Why 15%:**\n- **For:** very little money is needed. About $26k of net buying took the FDV from $55k to $662k, and roughly $30k more would get it to $1M. The stakers look like longer-term holders.\n- **Against:**\n  - The fee contract keeps selling $HIVE into the pool. It has sold 81.7M so far and still holds 50.6M.\n  - The 6.5% fee on every trade makes a buy-and-sell cost about 13%.\n  - Early buyers are sitting on profits.\n  - I saw no on-chain sign of anything new that would drive a second, higher peak.\n\n**Main caveats:**\n- The explorer's API was blocked, so I rebuilt all holder balances from raw chain logs.\n- USD figures use one fixed ETH price (~$2,691).\n- The roles of the staking, multisig and fee contracts are my inference from their code and token flows; none has verified source code.\n- The $30k estimate assumes the pool's liquidity is spread evenly across all prices.\n- Social attention, listings and team actions weren't measured.\n\n**Still open:** whether the multisig can withdraw its 8.2% or change the fee contract. The project's site says \"No admin keys\", so this matters.\n\nThe report includes a link for each fact and a separate section each for inferences, uncertainty and open questions. `artifacts/` is gitignored, so none of the files is in git; `report.md` is left for upload as required, and the README, data files and scripts are in the same folder. Only the report is a named output, so the others may not be uploaded unless they're added to git some other way.\n\nFiles are in `artifacts/`:\n- report.md\n- README.md\n- data/\n- scripts/\n\nNot financial advice.","treeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":1110519,"inputTokens":48,"model":"claude-opus-5-5","outputTokens":27863,"runtime":"claude","turns":26,"wallClockMs":395896}}],"verification":[{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"1f9e900d80c5c6827d5b67ebdf0a7fabc59cac7a660135c22cab605b91fe95e5","verifiedTreeHash":"4b825dc642cb6eb9a060e54bf8d69288fbee4904","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+ed840305"}]}