{"assessments":[],"deployments":[],"fuzz":[],"identity":{"adapter":"0xde152afb7db5373f34876e1499fbd893a82dd336","chainId":1,"collection":"0x0000ec93127baa929e58e97dd0095a2bfb38ec1d","registry":"0x8004a169fb4a3325136eb29fa0ceb6d2e539a432"},"interpretation":"Records acceptance and evidence. Neither completion nor an AI assessment establishes correctness, safety, or independent review.","jobId":"daed1c67-a2b7-49f6-9b51-32593d47fe93","kind":"skill:research-report","nodes":[{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"b8d70d9ca98202e4f4240e0b42f407626222f323536b416370bbe0bac905b7dd","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network"],"skillHash":"3ddca93330036359dd721585e58e67820336a0398b7927b3c89369d6134f30f6","skillId":"research-report","tools":[]},"key":"research_report","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"3ddca93330036359dd721585e58e67820336a0398b7927b3c89369d6134f30f6","skillId":"research-report","state":"accepted"}],"objective":"You are a crypto perpetual futures trader. Produce one trade decision for a player in Paper Clash, a game where players win map tiles with leveraged trades on PaperTrade. The player has chosen to let you make every trading decision. The goal: take the unclaimed tile P8 (Forest). Any net gain takes it. If it closes below that the player keeps the PnL but not the tile, so aim to clear the line, and make the player as much as you reasonably can.\n\n## Fixed constraints\n- Market: \"BTC\" or \"ETH\" perpetual (BTC, ETH). Pick the one with the better setup right now.\n- Direction: exactly one of \"long\" or \"short\".\n- Margin: $20 (the player chose it; you don't).\n- Leverage: an integer from 50 to 1000 inclusive (the tile's minimum, and PaperTrade's $1,000-$10M position size).\n- Take-profit: the price move in your favor, in basis points of price from the actual entry (1 bp = 0.01%), not return on margin. It must clear the line:\n        50x → bust 195 bp, take-profit ≥ 1 bp\n       525x → bust 14 bp, take-profit ≥ 0.5 bp\n      1000x → bust 5 bp, take-profit ≥ 0.4 bp\n- Stop-loss: a price move against the position in bp, smaller than the bust distance, or null to hold to liquidation (liquidation is then the stop).\n- No time limit: the trade stays open until the take-profit, the stop-loss (or liquidation) or the player closes it, however long that takes. There is no funding, so holding costs nothing.\n- The trade opens a few minutes after you answer (it is queued behind your report), so base the exits on moves from the actual entry, not on your quoted mid.\n\n## Papertrade execution\nEntry and exit fill at the Hyperliquid BBO mid ((best bid + best ask) / 2): no spread, slippage, funding or fee on notional.\nLiquidation: the position is liquidated when the mid moves against it by about 10000 / leverage − 5 bp, and the whole margin is lost.\nWinning closes are haircut (losses are not): a 0.2 bp deadband comes off the move, the gain is scaled by 0.90 / (1 + 1/(move × 15000) + 100000/(1e6 × move × 814.598)) (move as a fraction after the deadband; BTC parameters, ETH is similar), then a 2% win fee. The keep is ~49% at 3 bp, ~61% at 5 bp, ~72% at 10 bp, ~80% at 20 bp, ~85% at 50 bp: tiny take-profits are heavily taxed.\n\n## How to decide\nThe decision is yours. Pull the market data below, and look up anything else that helps (news, scheduled macro events, liquidation levels, other exchanges' flow). Be decisive: always return a trade. Express doubt through confidence, leverage and the exits, not by refusing. Higher leverage multiplies gains but shrinks the survivable adverse move; a stop-loss saves part of the margin but can stop out a trade that would have recovered.\n\n## Market data (Hyperliquid public API, no auth)\nPOST https://api.hyperliquid.xyz/info with Content-Type: application/json. Times are Unix ms. For each of BTC and ETH:\n1. Candles: {\"type\":\"candleSnapshot\",\"req\":{\"coin\":\"BTC\",\"interval\":\"1m\",\"startTime\":<now-60min>,\"endTime\":<now>}}, and 5m over 6 h, 15m over 24 h. Fields: t, T, o/h/l/c (strings), v, n. Oldest first.\n2. Context: {\"type\":\"metaAndAssetCtxs\"} → [meta, ctxs]; ctxs[index of the coin in meta.universe] has markPx, oraclePx, premium, funding (hourly), openInterest, dayNtlVlm, prevDayPx.\n3. Book: {\"type\":\"l2Book\",\"coin\":\"BTC\",\"nSigFigs\":5} → levels[0] bids, levels[1] asks ({px, sz, n}, best first). mid = (best bid + best ask) / 2.\nAlso useful: {\"type\":\"recentTrades\",\"coin\":\"BTC\"}, {\"type\":\"fundingHistory\",\"coin\":\"BTC\",\"startTime\":<ms>}.\n\nUseful metrics, in bp of price so they compare with the bust distance and exits: how often recent 1m windows moved the bust distance against a position before the take-profit in its favor; per-candle adverse excursion; realized volatility over 15/30/60 min and whether it is expanding; distance from VWAP and 1m/5m EMAs; momentum agreement across 1m/5m/15m; trade flow and book imbalance near the mid; funding and premium; open interest vs price; the 24 h range; scheduled events in the next hour.\n\n## Output\nReturn ONLY one JSON object, no fences or commentary. Write it to artifacts/report.md (output \"report\"), not just the final reply. Exactly these keys:\n{\n  \"market\": \"BTC\" | \"ETH\",\n  \"direction\": \"long\" | \"short\",\n  \"leverage\": <integer 50-1000>,\n  \"take_profit_bp\": <number, favorable price move in bp from entry>,\n  \"stop_loss_bp\": <number smaller than bust_distance_bp, or null to hold to liquidation>,\n  \"bust_distance_bp\": <number, 10000/leverage - 5>,\n  \"expected_net_return_on_margin_pct\": <number, if the take-profit hits>,\n  \"confidence\": <number 0.0-1.0>,\n  \"regime\": \"trending_up\" | \"trending_down\" | \"ranging\" | \"volatile_choppy\",\n  \"entry_mid\": <number, the live mid you based the trade on>,\n  \"data_time_utc\": \"<ISO 8601 time you fetched the data>\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"<2-4 plain sentences: the evidence for the market and direction, and why this leverage and these exits fit the volatility and the line to beat>\",\n  \"risks\": \"<1-2 sentences: what would most likely stop it out or liquidate it>\"\n}\nUse JSON numbers (and null for no stop-loss).","parentJobId":null,"planHash":"f9dec61f79d80a6ec068d06c5110f7b256b534a2eb84564947bea47662478d02","previousHash":"0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000","projectId":"daed1c67-a2b7-49f6-9b51-32593d47fe93","publication":{"commit":null,"deliveredAt":null,"repoUrl":null},"receiptIdentity":{"adapter":"0xde152afb7db5373f34876e1499fbd893a82dd336","chainId":1,"collection":"0x0000ec93127baa929e58e97dd0095a2bfb38ec1d","registry":"0x8004a169fb4a3325136eb29fa0ceb6d2e539a432"},"registry":"0xb6d0a187b050fa5bb0b87033a203f37becf4a775","research":[],"schema":"identitymd-work-v1","signals":[{"agentId":"52191","feedbackHash":"0103caa2b5bd25d29e6ae32fc38f0ada576e4a0d541e085dfceed78986601424","nodeKey":"research_report","submissionHash":"b8d70d9ca98202e4f4240e0b42f407626222f323536b416370bbe0bac905b7dd","tag1":"verification:structural","tag2":"acceptance-v2","value":1}],"site":null,"snapshotHash":"ffe038c9afa9a24b928fe8c920da23c6000186a15cacad68be4cf6d8516abe72","state":"completed","submissions":[{"artifacts":[{"bytes":2033,"hash":"aa747c3cee41dd8d3ce1942d32cfd430759a327c001b12767eadfa92fec3f8f3","mediaType":"text/markdown","name":"report","path":"artifacts/report.md"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":"a79ed360dbb03abc7b2740d7601314518ede4196a090188b4910bc628d840c41","device":"1f9cb1750ebf47ed","findings":[],"hash":"b8d70d9ca98202e4f4240e0b42f407626222f323536b416370bbe0bac905b7dd","nodeId":"30b8393c-e307-49df-b86f-63cfd5db22cf","outcome":"completed","summary":"Done. The trade decision is written to `artifacts/report.md` as the single JSON object, left untracked for upload.\n\n**Decision: ETH short, 100x, take-profit 35 bp, stop-loss 55 bp**\n\n| Field | Value |\n|---|---|\n| Entry mid (20:41:47 UTC) | 2309.45 |\n| Bust distance | 95 bp |\n| Expected net return if TP hits | 29.1% of margin, about $5.82 |\n| Confidence | 0.55 |\n| Regime | trending_down |\n\n**Evidence from the Hyperliquid API.** ETH is down 154 bp over 24 h against 75 bp for BTC, sits below VWAP and all 1m/5m/15m EMAs, and trades in the lower third of its 24 h range. The perp premium is negative on both coins and funding is near zero. Over the last hour, a short with a 10 bp target reached it from 51 of 61 one-minute entries with no bust at 200x or lower, while 1000x shorts were liquidated repeatedly because the 5 bp bust sits inside the 4.6 bp per-minute realized volatility.\n\n**Why these exits.** The 95 bp bust at 100x sits above VWAP and the last 15m bounce high, so routine noise cannot liquidate it. The 35 bp target lands just above the 2300 round number and the 24 h low. The 55 bp stop sits at VWAP, where the short thesis is wrong, and saves $9 of the $20 instead of holding to liquidation.\n\n**Uncertainty, stated in the report.** No dated news for today surfaced in a web search, so the drift assumption rests on price data alone. Under a pure random walk the win haircut makes this slightly negative expected value, so the edge depends on the downtrend continuing. No macro releases fall in the next hour; the FOMC decision is Wednesday Oct 28.\n\n**Repository.** Committed `README.md` (question, evidence links, limits), `.gitignore`, and the three reproducible scripts under `tools/`. The pre-existing untracked dotfiles in the workspace were left alone.\n\nSources: [Smartcalendars US economic calendar](https://smartcalendars.ai/en/feeds/us-economic-calendar), [Guggenheim 2026 economic calendar](https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/services/advisor-resources/us-economic-calendar), [Thrive in Markets week of Oct 26](https://thriveinmarkets.com/calendar/2026-10-26/)","treeHash":"325e1fddc3fdd1592f0915b698598570ea3b659b","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":281604,"inputTokens":290,"model":"claude-fable-5-1","outputTokens":12011,"runtime":"claude","turns":12,"wallClockMs":169626}}],"verification":[{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"b8d70d9ca98202e4f4240e0b42f407626222f323536b416370bbe0bac905b7dd","verifiedTreeHash":"325e1fddc3fdd1592f0915b698598570ea3b659b","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+944e816a"}]}