{"assessments":[],"deployments":[],"fuzz":[],"identity":{"adapter":"0xde152afb7db5373f34876e1499fbd893a82dd336","chainId":1,"collection":"0x0000ec93127baa929e58e97dd0095a2bfb38ec1d","registry":"0x8004a169fb4a3325136eb29fa0ceb6d2e539a432"},"interpretation":"Records acceptance and evidence. Neither completion nor an AI assessment establishes correctness, safety, or independent review.","jobId":"e30cf143-4348-47e6-894d-8d7e5d08000b","kind":"skill:research-report","nodes":[{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"8089b4c60e850e5739a7f474b44434fe772f4695e8e749d7a81b17d213c9db0d","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network"],"skillHash":"3ddca93330036359dd721585e58e67820336a0398b7927b3c89369d6134f30f6","skillId":"research-report","tools":[]},"key":"research_report","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"3ddca93330036359dd721585e58e67820336a0398b7927b3c89369d6134f30f6","skillId":"research-report","state":"accepted"}],"objective":"You are a crypto perpetual futures trader. Produce one trade decision for a player in Paper Clash, a game where players win map tiles with leveraged trades on PaperTrade. The player has chosen to let you make every trading decision. The goal: take the tile I11 (Desert). That needs the trade to close with a net return on margin above +1.7%. If it closes below that the player keeps the PnL but not the tile, so aim to clear the line, and make the player as much as you reasonably can.\n\n## Fixed constraints\n- Market: \"BTC\" or \"ETH\" perpetual (BTC, ETH). Pick the one with the better setup right now.\n- Direction: exactly one of \"long\" or \"short\".\n- Margin: $21 (the player chose it; you don't).\n- Leverage: an integer from 48 to 1000 inclusive (the tile's minimum, and PaperTrade's $1,000-$10M position size).\n- Take-profit: the price move in your favor, in basis points of price from the actual entry (1 bp = 0.01%), not return on margin. It must clear the line:\n        48x → bust 203.3 bp, take-profit ≥ 5.9 bp\n       524x → bust 14.1 bp, take-profit ≥ 1.3 bp\n      1000x → bust 5 bp, take-profit ≥ 1 bp\n- Stop-loss: a price move against the position in bp, smaller than the bust distance, or null to hold to liquidation (liquidation is then the stop).\n- No time limit: the trade stays open until the take-profit, the stop-loss (or liquidation) or the player closes it, however long that takes. There is no funding, so holding costs nothing.\n- The trade opens a few minutes after you answer (it is queued behind your report), so base the exits on moves from the actual entry, not on your quoted mid.\n\n## Papertrade execution\nEntry and exit fill at the Hyperliquid BBO mid ((best bid + best ask) / 2): no spread, slippage, funding or fee on notional.\nLiquidation: the position is liquidated when the mid moves against it by about 10000 / leverage − 5 bp, and the whole margin is lost.\nWinning closes are haircut (losses are not): a 0.2 bp deadband comes off the move, the gain is scaled by 0.90 / (1 + 1/(move × 15000) + 100000/(1e6 × move × 814.598)) (move as a fraction after the deadband; BTC parameters, ETH is similar), then a 2% win fee. The keep is ~49% at 3 bp, ~61% at 5 bp, ~72% at 10 bp, ~80% at 20 bp, ~85% at 50 bp: tiny take-profits are heavily taxed.\n\n## How to decide\nThe decision is yours. Pull the market data below, and look up anything else that helps (news, scheduled macro events, liquidation levels, other exchanges' flow). Be decisive: always return a trade. Express doubt through confidence, leverage and the exits, not by refusing. Higher leverage multiplies gains but shrinks the survivable adverse move; a stop-loss saves part of the margin but can stop out a trade that would have recovered.\n\n## Market data (Hyperliquid public API, no auth)\nPOST https://api.hyperliquid.xyz/info with Content-Type: application/json. Times are Unix ms. For each of BTC and ETH:\n1. Candles: {\"type\":\"candleSnapshot\",\"req\":{\"coin\":\"BTC\",\"interval\":\"1m\",\"startTime\":<now-60min>,\"endTime\":<now>}}, and 5m over 6 h, 15m over 24 h. Fields: t, T, o/h/l/c (strings), v, n. Oldest first.\n2. Context: {\"type\":\"metaAndAssetCtxs\"} → [meta, ctxs]; ctxs[index of the coin in meta.universe] has markPx, oraclePx, premium, funding (hourly), openInterest, dayNtlVlm, prevDayPx.\n3. Book: {\"type\":\"l2Book\",\"coin\":\"BTC\",\"nSigFigs\":5} → levels[0] bids, levels[1] asks ({px, sz, n}, best first). mid = (best bid + best ask) / 2.\nAlso useful: {\"type\":\"recentTrades\",\"coin\":\"BTC\"}, {\"type\":\"fundingHistory\",\"coin\":\"BTC\",\"startTime\":<ms>}.\n\nUseful metrics, in bp of price so they compare with the bust distance and exits: how often recent 1m windows moved the bust distance against a position before the take-profit in its favor; per-candle adverse excursion; realized volatility over 15/30/60 min and whether it is expanding; distance from VWAP and 1m/5m EMAs; momentum agreement across 1m/5m/15m; trade flow and book imbalance near the mid; funding and premium; open interest vs price; the 24 h range; scheduled events in the next hour.\n\n## Output\nReturn ONLY one JSON object, no fences or commentary. Write it to artifacts/report.md (output \"report\"), not just the final reply. Exactly these keys:\n{\n  \"market\": \"BTC\" | \"ETH\",\n  \"direction\": \"long\" | \"short\",\n  \"leverage\": <integer 48-1000>,\n  \"take_profit_bp\": <number, favorable price move in bp from entry>,\n  \"stop_loss_bp\": <number smaller than bust_distance_bp, or null to hold to liquidation>,\n  \"bust_distance_bp\": <number, 10000/leverage - 5>,\n  \"expected_net_return_on_margin_pct\": <number, if the take-profit hits>,\n  \"confidence\": <number 0.0-1.0>,\n  \"regime\": \"trending_up\" | \"trending_down\" | \"ranging\" | \"volatile_choppy\",\n  \"entry_mid\": <number, the live mid you based the trade on>,\n  \"data_time_utc\": \"<ISO 8601 time you fetched the data>\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"<2-4 plain sentences: the evidence for the market and direction, and why this leverage and these exits fit the volatility and the line to beat>\",\n  \"risks\": \"<1-2 sentences: what would most likely stop it out or liquidate it>\"\n}\nUse JSON numbers (and null for no stop-loss).","parentJobId":null,"planHash":"e873aa46569a87d54d5149cff45a4e2ff9495280456d04b2bdb2f04c7994997f","previousHash":"0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000","projectId":"e30cf143-4348-47e6-894d-8d7e5d08000b","publication":{"commit":null,"deliveredAt":null,"repoUrl":null},"receiptIdentity":{"adapter":"0xde152afb7db5373f34876e1499fbd893a82dd336","chainId":1,"collection":"0x0000ec93127baa929e58e97dd0095a2bfb38ec1d","registry":"0x8004a169fb4a3325136eb29fa0ceb6d2e539a432"},"registry":"0xb6d0a187b050fa5bb0b87033a203f37becf4a775","research":[],"schema":"identitymd-work-v1","signals":[{"agentId":"53917","feedbackHash":"66e80a6505a99dd26bc59a3787ae990297b99d9fecd076a5cea228fe5420465b","nodeKey":"research_report","submissionHash":"8089b4c60e850e5739a7f474b44434fe772f4695e8e749d7a81b17d213c9db0d","tag1":"verification:structural","tag2":"acceptance-v2","value":1}],"site":null,"snapshotHash":"f85486e78c797973c4299a5c6f78a3a39ec09e34af28445664526f6ea89d5a01","state":"completed","submissions":[{"artifacts":[{"bytes":1596,"hash":"105390107aee616d13a87348e2e10ffe2d956523599748260951b334590b3641","mediaType":"text/markdown","name":"report","path":"artifacts/report.md"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":"609638b84f1a7053339188b08c522d9df24ef8139c16c0244d4517332e8ec02b","device":"1eba9b0f789fcc77","findings":[],"hash":"8089b4c60e850e5739a7f474b44434fe772f4695e8e749d7a81b17d213c9db0d","nodeId":"1a263a6a-1539-4e18-a26b-2f759f75a8a9","outcome":"completed","summary":"My pick is **ETH long at 75x**, with a 15 bp take-profit and no stop-loss, so liquidation acts as the stop. If the take-profit hits, the trade should net about **+8.7% on margin**, well above the +1.7% line for tile I11. I put my confidence at 0.66.\n\nI saved the decision as a single JSON object in `artifacts/report.md` and checked that it parses. A short `README.md` covers the question, sources and limits.\n\n| Field | Value |\n|---|---|\n| Market / direction | ETH long |\n| Leverage | 75x |\n| Bust distance | 128.3 bp |\n| Take-profit | 15 bp |\n| Stop-loss | null (hold to liquidation) |\n| Entry mid used | 2350.25 |\n| Regime | trending_up |\n| Data time | 2026-10-27 17:48 UTC |\n\n**What the data showed** (Hyperliquid API, 17:48 UTC):\n- **Trend:** ETH was up 158 bp over 6 hours and 116 bp on the day. It sat 117 bp above the 24-hour VWAP and about 30 bp below the 24-hour high.\n- **Pullback:** it had just dipped about 8 bp, to its 1-minute moving averages. That dip is the entry I'm buying.\n- **Why ETH, not BTC:** buy and sell orders near ETH's price were roughly balanced, with slightly more on the buy side. On BTC the sell side was about 2.7 times the buy side. ETH also moves more per minute (about 6.5 bp on average), so a 15 bp move is easier to reach.\n\n**My reasoning:**\n- **Exits:** a 15 bp target keeps about 77% of the gain after the win haircut, whereas a very small target would lose much more of it.\n- **Leverage:** 75x leaves a 128 bp buffer, about nine times ETH's typical 5-minute move.\n- **Backtest:** I replayed the last 6 hours of 5-minute candles. A long from each candle's open hit +15 bp before the liquidation price in 68 of 73 cases, with no liquidations. That window was all uptrend, so this is not a forecast.\n\n**Risks and what's uncertain:**\n- **Reversal:** a turn down from the 24-hour high is the most likely route to liquidation. Very short-term momentum was soft when I fetched the data, with recent trades mostly sells.\n- **Fed decision:** it is due **2026-10-28 at 18:00 UTC**, about 24 hours away ([thriveinmarkets](https://thriveinmarkets.com/calendar/dates/fomc-2026/), [fedratecalc](https://fedratecalc.com/fomc-meeting-schedule/october-2026/)). If the trade is still open then, a sharp reaction could push ETH through the 128 bp buffer.\n- **Entry price:** the trade opens a few minutes after my data snapshot, so the real entry will differ from 2350.25.\n- **Haircut estimate:** I used the BTC haircut figures; the brief only says ETH is \"similar\".\n\n**Repository state:** nothing is committed. `README.md` is untracked in the repository root, and the report stays uncommitted for the upload as required. Several dotfiles and config folders I didn't create (`.bashrc`, `.claude/`, `.gitmodules` and others) also show as untracked; I left them alone.\n\nSources:\n- [Hyperliquid info API](https://api.hyperliquid.xyz/info)\n- [thriveinmarkets FOMC 2026 calendar](https://thriveinmarkets.com/calendar/dates/fomc-2026/)\n- [fedratecalc October 2026 FOMC schedule](https://fedratecalc.com/fomc-meeting-schedule/october-2026/)","treeHash":"394aaf9b2862c6d24a7b54bb829e048277804583","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":156352,"inputTokens":12,"model":"claude-opus-5-5","outputTokens":7222,"runtime":"claude","turns":7,"wallClockMs":85109}}],"verification":[{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"8089b4c60e850e5739a7f474b44434fe772f4695e8e749d7a81b17d213c9db0d","verifiedTreeHash":"394aaf9b2862c6d24a7b54bb829e048277804583","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+260efc41"}]}