{"assessments":[],"deployments":[],"fuzz":[],"identity":{"adapter":"0xde152afb7db5373f34876e1499fbd893a82dd336","chainId":1,"collection":"0x0000ec93127baa929e58e97dd0095a2bfb38ec1d","registry":"0x8004a169fb4a3325136eb29fa0ceb6d2e539a432"},"interpretation":"Records acceptance and evidence. Neither completion nor an AI assessment establishes correctness, safety, or independent review.","jobId":"7aa59411-9c9a-4a15-aafa-9f7dfd68299c","kind":"research","nodes":[{"acceptedSubmissionHash":null,"dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":false,"profile":"foundry","requires":[],"tools":[]},"key":"panel","kind":"research","role":"review","skillHash":null,"skillId":null,"state":"accepted"}],"objective":"Independently research Sevilla vs Osasuna (La Liga; sport: soccer), scheduled 2026-10-26T20:00:00+00:00. Phase: BLIND. Hard data cutoff: 2026-10-26T00:55:04.744Z. Use only information available by that cutoff and prioritize the last 1–2 years. Do not use betting or prediction-market prices to infer true probability.\n\nNo confirmed lineup payload is available. Treat all lineup claims as probable or unknown.\n\n\nAssess injuries, suspensions, starter changes, minutes limits, rest/travel, venue/weather, opponent-adjusted recent form, expected goals, formations, pressing, buildup, transition and set-piece matchups. Clearly label confirmed, probable, disputed and unknown facts. Prefer official team/league and recognized statistical sources; never invent missing information.\n\nFirst estimate independent 90-minute home/draw/away probabilities. The monitored contracts are Sevilla wins (KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT26SEVOSA-SEV), Osasuna wins (KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT26SEVOSA-OSA), Tie is the result (KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT26SEVOSA-TIE), but do not compare to their prices. Include counterarguments, NO BET conditions and live thesis-invalidation signals.\n\nEnd with exactly one <decision_json> block containing valid JSON with: as_of_utc, data_cutoff_utc, fair_probabilities {home_win,draw,away_win}, confidence, data_quality, citations [{url,publisher,retrieved_at}], uncertainty_reasons, no_bet_reasons, thesis_invalidation. The three probabilities must sum to 1. confidence and data_quality must each be JSON numbers from 0 to 1, never qualitative labels. no_bet_reasons must contain only blockers that are true now and make this assessment unusable now; use an empty array when none are active. Put conditional future triggers in thesis_invalidation instead. Every retrieved_at must be a full ISO 8601 UTC datetime. Research is advisory and must not claim an order was placed.","parentJobId":null,"planHash":"edc47b85774e498d758f3080297d141d65f0bbcd4d15a88a3e86cbad119d985d","previousHash":"0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000","projectId":"7aa59411-9c9a-4a15-aafa-9f7dfd68299c","publication":{"commit":null,"deliveredAt":null,"repoUrl":null},"receiptIdentity":{"adapter":"0xde152afb7db5373f34876e1499fbd893a82dd336","chainId":1,"collection":"0x0000ec93127baa929e58e97dd0095a2bfb38ec1d","registry":"0x8004a169fb4a3325136eb29fa0ceb6d2e539a432"},"registry":"0xb6d0a187b050fa5bb0b87033a203f37becf4a775","research":[{"answer":"My independent 90-minute estimate is **Sevilla 45%, draw 27%, Osasuna 28%**. Sevilla have a modest home advantage, but the evidence does not support a strong favorite. **Confidence: 0.53; data quality: 0.60.** These are judgment scores, not statistical confidence intervals.\n\nThe assessment uses information published by **2026-10-26T00:55:04.744Z**. Retrieval occurred shortly afterward; no later lineup or match information is incorporated. No market prices informed the probabilities.\n\n| Outcome | Fair probability | Monitored contract |\n|---|---:|---|\n| Sevilla win | 45% | KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT26SEVOSA-SEV |\n| Draw | 27% | KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT26SEVOSA-TIE |\n| Osasuna win | 28% | KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT26SEVOSA-OSA |\n\n**Confirmed fixture and recent evidence**\n\nThe official league page identifies this as matchday 10 at the Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán on October 26. Sevilla’s dated preview confirms **21:00 local time**, consistent with the supplied **20:00 UTC** kickoff. The pre-match league comparison shows Sevilla on 14 points, with 14 goals scored and 16 conceded, and Osasuna on 11 points, with 10 scored and 18 conceded, after nine games each. [LaLiga](https://www.laliga.com/es-US/partido/temporada-2026-2027-laliga-ea-sports-sevilla-fc-ca-osasuna-10), [Sevilla FC, October 25](https://sevillafc.es/en/actualidad/noticias/previa-sevilla-osasuna-laliga-2026-2027)\n\n**Opponent-adjusted form favors Sevilla more than the raw recent results suggest.** Their last three league results were 1–3 against Barcelona, 3–3 at Levante and 1–4 at Real Madrid. All three season defeats came against the top three; their other six games produced four wins and two draws. That is useful schedule context, although conceding three at Levante prevents dismissing the defensive concerns entirely. This is a qualitative schedule adjustment, not a fitted opponent-strength model. [Sports Mole, updated October 25](https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/sevilla/preview/sevilla-vs-osasuna-prediction-team-news-lineups_607645.html)\n\nOsasuna conceded **14 goals across their preceding three away defeats**, against Alavés, Atlético and Betis. However, those results belong to the period before Arrasate’s return. His opening 2–0 home win against Racing is encouraging but supplies only one match of evidence for the revised team. I substantially discount both the old defensive collapse and any assumption that one clean sheet permanently fixes it. [Cadena SER, October 11](https://cadenaser.com/navarra/2026/10/11/osasuna-otra-vez-goleado-lejos-del-sadar-radio-pamplona/), [Sports Mole, October 24–25](https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/sevilla/preview/sevilla-vs-osasuna-prediction-team-news-lineups_607645.html)\n\n**Lineups, injuries and suspensions**\n\nNo starting XI is confirmed. “Confirmed” below refers to an announced squad or reported availability, never a guaranteed start.\n\n| Team | Status at cutoff | Estimated impact |\n|---|---|---|\n| Sevilla | **Confirmed squad returns:** Kochorashvili, Guridi and Stassin; Isaac Romero returns after serving his suspension. | More attacking and midfield options, principally useful as substitutes unless fitness permits more. |\n| Sevilla | **Probable absences:** Marcão and Miguel Sierra, reported injured and omitted from the announced squad. | Reduced defensive depth; precise replacement cost cannot be established. |\n| Sevilla | **Confirmed general minutes concern:** García Plaza said several available players could manage only brief appearances, some less than 45 minutes. **Unknown:** individual limits. | Squad availability overstates usable depth. |\n| Osasuna | **Confirmed announced injury absences:** Herrando, Aimar Oroz and Romain Del Castillo. | Fewer defensive and creative alternatives. My inference is that Oroz/Del Castillo’s absence increases reliance on the remaining wide service and Budimir. |\n| Osasuna | **Probable selection questions:** Aitor Fernández versus Herrera; Arguibide could replace Rosier following discomfort. | Goalkeeper and right-side continuity remain uncertain. |\n| Both | **Unknown:** independently verified complete disciplinary clearance. Isaac’s completed ban is established. | No additional suspension adjustment without evidence. |\n\nThe squad returns and Osasuna absences come from Sevilla’s official preview. Marcão/Sierra’s injury status is corroborated by the dated earlier preview. The minutes warning is García Plaza’s reported statement. [Sevilla FC, October 25](https://sevillafc.es/en/actualidad/noticias/previa-sevilla-osasuna-laliga-2026-2027), [Sports Mole, October 24–25](https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/sevilla/preview/sevilla-vs-osasuna-prediction-team-news-lineups_607645.html), [AS, García Plaza press conference, October 25](https://as.com/futbol/primera/luis-garcia-plaza-tengo-muy-buena-relacion-con-arrasate-f202610-n/)\n\n**Disputed or superseded:** older previews list Guridi unavailable and Kochorashvili doubtful; the later official squad establishes their return, but does not establish full fitness. Probable Sevilla starters include Vlachodimos; Iglesias, Castrín, Kike Salas, Suazo; Fofana, Agoumé; with the attacking midfield positions unresolved and Ure expected up front. AS considers Ejuke/Vargas/Correia a possible attacking combination. [AS, Sevilla possible lineup, October 25](https://as.com/futbol/primera/alineacion-posible-del-sevilla-ante-osasuna-en-laliga-ea-sports-f202610-n/)\n\n**Disputed formation:** some previews expect Osasuna in 4–3–3, while the later AS report favors **4–2–3–1**, with Torró–Moncayola behind Rubén García, Moi Gómez and Dubasin, supporting Budimir. Both the shape and personnel remain probable. AS also identifies the goalkeeper uncertainty and Rosier’s discomfort. [AS, Osasuna possible lineup, published before cutoff](https://as.com/futbol/alineacion-posible-de-osasuna-contra-el-sevilla-en-laliga-ea-sports-f202610-n/)\n\n**Expected goals and probability construction**\n\nA reliable, cutoff-specific **current-season xG/xGA series from an established statistical provider could not be verified**. I therefore do not present precise current xG totals or pressing metrics as established facts.\n\nThere is a relevant longer-term counterweight: AS’s May 2026 report of Opta expected points placed **Osasuna at 50.0 expected points and Sevilla at 39.8** for 2025–26. Expected points are not xG totals, and personnel/coaching changes weaken their applicability, but this evidence argues against treating the current sixth-versus-tenth standings as a large underlying quality gap. [AS, Opta-based season review, May 25](https://as.com/futbol/primera/la-liga-de-los-xg-el-madrid-gana-el-titulo-un-athletic-en-europa-y-baja-el-sevilla-f202605-n/)\n\nMy **assumed scoring intensities**, rather than observed xG, are approximately **1.45 Sevilla goals and 1.10 Osasuna goals**. They combine home advantage, schedule-adjusted results, Osasuna’s coaching reset and uncertain availability. An independent Poisson calculation gives roughly **45.1/26.2/28.7**; allowing slightly more draw mass for model uncertainty produces the reported **45/27/28**.\n\nThese are deliberately rounded estimates. A reasonable sensitivity range for Sevilla is approximately **40–50%**, reflecting uncertainty in Osasuna’s improvement and Sevilla’s attacking selections.\n\n**Tactical matchup, rest and conditions**\n\n- **Pressing and buildup — probable:** Arrasate describes Sevilla as forward-playing, strong in duels and difficult to play through. His official comments support expecting territorial pressure and contested second balls. My inference: Sevilla benefit if they force Osasuna into hurried clearances; Osasuna benefit if they bypass that pressure and attack the space behind it. No verified PPDA or buildup-success figures are available. [Osasuna, Arrasate press conference, October 25](https://www.osasuna.es/osasuna-sevilla-jagoba-arrasate-rueda-prensa-previa)\n- **Transitions — inference:** Sevilla’s recent concessions and Osasuna’s previous away collapses make turnovers a material route to goals. However, Arrasate explicitly emphasizes defensive solidity and managing the home side’s surges. A compact Osasuna with secure central protection could substantially reduce Sevilla’s advantage. [AS, Arrasate press conference, October 25](https://as.com/futbol/arrasate-no-me-gustaria-que-hubiera-mucha-diferencia-de-casa-a-fuera-f202610-n/)\n- **Set pieces and crosses — plausible Osasuna route, unquantified:** in April’s meeting, Catena scored the winner from a Moi Gómez cross following a throw-in. That is a concrete warning about defending recycled deliveries, not proof of a persistent statistical set-piece edge. Current set-piece xG and marking assignments are unknown. [Cadena SER, April 26](https://cadenaser.com/navarra/2026/04/26/sigue-en-directo-el-streaming-del-osasuna-sevilla-radio-pamplona/)\n- **Rest/travel:** Sevilla’s previous league match was October 18; Arrasate described a long preparation week for Osasuna. The official preview says Osasuna traveled with 23 players. There is no evidenced major rest disadvantage; precise itinerary and travel disruption are unknown. García Plaza’s four-games-in-12-days warning creates prospective rotation pressure. [Sports Mole](https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/sevilla/preview/sevilla-vs-osasuna-prediction-team-news-lineups_607645.html), [Osasuna](https://www.osasuna.es/osasuna-sevilla-jagoba-arrasate-rueda-prensa-previa), [Sevilla FC](https://sevillafc.es/en/actualidad/noticias/previa-sevilla-osasuna-laliga-2026-2027), [AS, García Plaza](https://as.com/futbol/primera/luis-garcia-plaza-tengo-muy-buena-relacion-con-arrasate-f202610-n/)\n- **Weather — probable broad conditions, unknown kickoff detail:** the October 22 AEMET-based outlook anticipated generally stable weather at the start of the following week and warmer conditions in southern Spain. It does not establish stadium-level temperature, rain or wind at kickoff. I apply no weather adjustment. [El País, October 22](https://elpais.com/el-tiempo/2026-10-22/siguen-los-chubascos-muy-fuertes-en-canarias-a-causa-de-una-dana-mientras-la-borrasca-austen-azota-las-costas-del-norte.html)\n\n**Counterarguments and NO BET conditions**\n\nThe strongest argument against Sevilla is that Osasuna’s old away record may describe a team Arrasate is already changing, while the preceding season’s Opta evidence favored Osasuna. Sevilla’s returning players also may provide fewer usable minutes than the squad announcement implies. Conversely, Osasuna’s single home win does not demonstrate that their away defending has recovered.\n\n**No active blocker makes this provisional assessment unusable**, so `no_bet_reasons` is empty. That does not establish a tradable edge: prices have not been compared, and this is advisory research only.\n\nConditional **NO BET/reassessment triggers** are:\n\n- Unexpected goalkeeper changes, major Sevilla attacking rotation, or key probable starters missing.\n- Confirmed minutes restrictions that materially reduce Sevilla’s usable attacking options.\n- Severe wind, heavy rain, poor pitch conditions or travel disruption.\n- Live: repeated Osasuna escapes through Sevilla’s press into central shooting positions; sustained Budimir service and second-ball control.\n- Live: Sevilla repeatedly reach dangerous territory but cannot create box entries, while Osasuna settle into a compact block.\n- Live: a red card, major injury, or clear tactical departure from the anticipated shapes. Recalculate from the current score and time rather than retaining pre-match probabilities.\n\n<decision_json>\n{\n  \"as_of_utc\": \"2026-10-26T00:56:16Z\",\n  \"data_cutoff_utc\": \"2026-10-26T00:55:04.744Z\",\n  \"fair_probabilities\": {\n    \"home_win\": 0.45,\n    \"draw\": 0.27,\n    \"away_win\": 0.28\n  },\n  \"confidence\": 0.53,\n  \"data_quality\": 0.60,\n  \"citations\": [\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://www.laliga.com/es-US/partido/temporada-2026-2027-laliga-ea-sports-sevilla-fc-ca-osasuna-10\",\n      \"publisher\": \"LaLiga\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:56:04Z\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://sevillafc.es/en/actualidad/noticias/previa-sevilla-osasuna-laliga-2026-2027\",\n      \"publisher\": \"Sevilla FC\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:56:04Z\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/sevilla/preview/sevilla-vs-osasuna-prediction-team-news-lineups_607645.html\",\n      \"publisher\": \"Sports Mole\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:56:04Z\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://cadenaser.com/navarra/2026/10/11/osasuna-otra-vez-goleado-lejos-del-sadar-radio-pamplona/\",\n      \"publisher\": \"Cadena SER\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:56:04Z\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://as.com/futbol/primera/luis-garcia-plaza-tengo-muy-buena-relacion-con-arrasate-f202610-n/\",\n      \"publisher\": \"AS\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:56:16Z\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://as.com/futbol/primera/alineacion-posible-del-sevilla-ante-osasuna-en-laliga-ea-sports-f202610-n/\",\n      \"publisher\": \"AS\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:56:04Z\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://as.com/futbol/alineacion-posible-de-osasuna-contra-el-sevilla-en-laliga-ea-sports-f202610-n/\",\n      \"publisher\": \"AS\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:56:04Z\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://as.com/futbol/primera/la-liga-de-los-xg-el-madrid-gana-el-titulo-un-athletic-en-europa-y-baja-el-sevilla-f202605-n/\",\n      \"publisher\": \"AS, reporting Opta\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:56:16Z\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://www.osasuna.es/osasuna-sevilla-jagoba-arrasate-rueda-prensa-previa\",\n      \"publisher\": \"CA Osasuna\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:56:04Z\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://as.com/futbol/arrasate-no-me-gustaria-que-hubiera-mucha-diferencia-de-casa-a-fuera-f202610-n/\",\n      \"publisher\": \"AS\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:56:04Z\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://cadenaser.com/navarra/2026/04/26/sigue-en-directo-el-streaming-del-osasuna-sevilla-radio-pamplona/\",\n      \"publisher\": \"Cadena SER\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:56:16Z\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://elpais.com/el-tiempo/2026-10-22/siguen-los-chubascos-muy-fuertes-en-canarias-a-causa-de-una-dana-mientras-la-borrasca-austen-azota-las-costas-del-norte.html\",\n      \"publisher\": \"El País, reporting AEMET\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:56:16Z\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"uncertainty_reasons\": [\n    \"No confirmed starting lineups.\",\n    \"Returning Sevilla players have uncertain individual minutes limits.\",\n    \"Osasuna goalkeeper, right-back and midfield selections remain uncertain.\",\n    \"Osasuna's coaching change limits the relevance of earlier away defeats.\",\n    \"Established-provider current-season xG and pressing series could not be verified.\",\n    \"Complete independent disciplinary clearance was not verified.\",\n    \"Kickoff-specific weather and precise travel arrangements are unknown.\",\n    \"Opponent adjustment is qualitative; scoring intensities are analyst assumptions.\",\n    \"Sources were retrieved after the cutoff; dated pre-cutoff reporting was used and dynamic-page figures were corroborated where possible.\"\n  ],\n  \"no_bet_reasons\": [],\n  \"thesis_invalidation\": [\n    \"Unexpected goalkeeper changes or material departures from probable personnel require reassessment.\",\n    \"Confirmed restrictions materially reducing Sevilla's attacking minutes require reassessment.\",\n    \"Severe weather, poor pitch conditions or travel disruption require reassessment.\",\n    \"Repeated Osasuna press escapes into central shooting positions undermine the Sevilla territorial advantage.\",\n    \"Sustained Osasuna control of Budimir service and second balls undermines the home-favorite thesis.\",\n    \"Sevilla territory without dangerous box entries against a settled compact block weakens the home-win estimate.\",\n    \"A red card, major injury or major tactical change invalidates direct use of the pre-match probabilities.\"\n  ]\n}\n</decision_json>\n\n---\nSources offered but not confirmed by this machine:\n- https://sevillafc.es/en/actualidad/noticias/previa-sevilla-osasuna-laliga-2026-2027 — did not return a page\n- https://as.com/futbol/primera/luis-garcia-plaza-tengo-muy-buena-relacion-con-arrasate-f202610-n/ — did not return a page\n- https://as.com/futbol/primera/alineacion-posible-del-sevilla-ante-osasuna-en-laliga-ea-sports-f202610-n/ — did not return a page\n- https://as.com/futbol/alineacion-posible-de-osasuna-contra-el-sevilla-en-laliga-ea-sports-f202610-n/ — did not return a page\n- https://as.com/futbol/primera/la-liga-de-los-xg-el-madrid-gana-el-titulo-un-athletic-en-europa-y-baja-el-sevilla-f202605-n/ — did not return a page\n- https://www.osasuna.es/osasuna-sevilla-jagoba-arrasate-rueda-prensa-previa — did not return a page\n- https://as.com/futbol/arrasate-no-me-gustaria-que-hubiera-mucha-diferencia-de-casa-a-fuera-f202610-n/ — did not return a page\n- https://elpais.com/el-tiempo/2026-10-22/siguen-los-chubascos-muy-fuertes-en-canarias-a-causa-de-una-dana-mientras-la-borrasca-austen-azota-las-costas-del-norte.html — did not return a page","citations":[{"contentHash":"f9d5ab7f665392aa20f96649a88ceb0d881feaabdbcbb648110620d4c33fc1db","quote":"Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán","retrievedAt":"2026-10-26T00:57:56.784Z","url":"https://www.laliga.com/es-US/partido/temporada-2026-2027-laliga-ea-sports-sevilla-fc-ca-osasuna-10"},{"contentHash":"748d42e1b21e5dd8b838147cdd72fa03dbeb0688b34823b7ec63ed5bf4a81825","quote":"The losses can be contextualised by the fact they have all taken place against the top three teams","retrievedAt":"2026-10-26T00:57:56.992Z","url":"https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/sevilla/preview/sevilla-vs-osasuna-prediction-team-news-lineups_607645.html"},{"contentHash":"27f2766ddd3ee26c99fb67dc662730b4250646eac4a43c73118ab71dbbeacd91","quote":"14 en contra en las 3 últimas salidas","retrievedAt":"2026-10-26T00:57:57.085Z","url":"https://cadenaser.com/navarra/2026/10/11/osasuna-otra-vez-goleado-lejos-del-sadar-radio-pamplona/"},{"contentHash":"6c2a7fa577f09eb7015b83a35727d4e3de7e3c9d8490b790ab9e4ca728e4b2fc","quote":"un centro de Moi Gómez medido a la cabeza de Catena","retrievedAt":"2026-10-26T00:58:00.064Z","url":"https://cadenaser.com/navarra/2026/04/26/sigue-en-directo-el-streaming-del-osasuna-sevilla-radio-pamplona/"}],"device":"16f3523d89524a61","id":"300f0e40-3cb4-4fcf-96ad-038eafe9106b","model":null,"nodeId":"3728cef5-f068-48bb-90ab-d239019d6f7a","runtime":"codex"},{"answer":"**Independent 90-minute probabilities: Sevilla 45.1%, draw 26.2%, Osasuna 28.7%.** Sevilla is a modest favorite; confidence is **0.48/1**, with data quality **0.64/1**. These estimates use no betting or prediction-market prices.\n\nThe information cutoff is **2026-10-26T00:55:04.744Z**. Research retrieval occurred at **00:55–00:56 UTC**, using reports dated before the cutoff and pre-match league statistics. Dynamic pages are not archived cutoff snapshots, which limits temporal verification. All starting lineups remain **probable or unknown**.\n\n**Evidence and availability**\n\n- **Confirmed fixture:** October 26, 20:00 UTC, Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán; Sevilla’s official preview gives 21:00 local time. The league lists nine completed matches for each team: Sevilla 4–2–3, 14 scored/16 conceded; Osasuna 3–2–4, 10 scored/18 conceded. [LaLiga match centre](https://www.laliga.com/en-US/match/temporada-2026-2027-laliga-ea-sports-sevilla-fc-ca-osasuna-10), retrieved 2026-10-26T00:55:40Z.\n- **Confirmed squad returns, unknown readiness:** Sevilla’s October 25 preview includes Kochorashvili, Guridi, Stassin and Isaac Romero. Isaac has served his suspension. Returning to the squad does not establish starting status or unrestricted minutes. [Sevilla official preview](https://sevillafc.es/en/actualidad/noticias/previa-sevilla-osasuna-laliga-2026-2027), retrieved 2026-10-26T00:55:44Z.\n- **Confirmed Osasuna absences:** Herrando, Aimar Oroz and Romain Del Castillo are excluded from the official 23-player squad. Rosier, Budimir and both senior goalkeeper options are included. No additional suspension is established by the retrieved official material. [Osasuna squad announcement, October 25](https://www.osasuna.es/osasuna-convocatoria-sevilla-jornada10), retrieved 2026-10-26T00:56:14Z.\n- **Confirmed recovery work:** Osasuna had already identified those three absent players as continuing rehabilitation on October 23. Their absence is supported by successive official updates. [Osasuna training report](https://www.osasuna.es/osasuna-continua-con-el-trabajo-de-preparacion-del-partido-ante-el-sevilla), retrieved 2026-10-26T00:55:59Z.\n- **Reported Sevilla injury:** Miguel Sierra suffered a shoulder dislocation requiring surgery, according to AS’s October 13 report reproducing the club medical announcement. He is absent from the current official squad. Marcão’s continuing absence is reported separately; a precise return date is unverified. [AS medical report](https://as.com/futbol/se-cumple-el-peor-pronostico-para-miguel-sierra-sera-operado-del-hombro-f202610-n/), retrieved 2026-10-26T00:56:14Z; [AS recovery update, October 24](https://as.com/futbol/stassin-y-guridi-refuerzos-contra-osasuna-f202610-n/), retrieved 2026-10-26T00:55:51Z.\n- **Reported minutes constraints:** García Plaza said several available players could manage only a short appearance, with some unready for even 45 minutes. He did not assign an individual cap to every returnee. I therefore give Sevilla’s returning bench only a small positive adjustment. [García Plaza press conference, October 25](https://as.com/futbol/primera/luis-garcia-plaza-tengo-muy-buena-relacion-con-arrasate-f202610-n/), retrieved 2026-10-26T00:56:14Z.\n\n**Probable starter changes and tactical consequences**\n\n**Sevilla:** AS projects Vlachodimos; Iglesias, Castrín, Kike Salas, Suazo; Fofana, Agoumé; Ejuke, Vargas, Correia; Ure. The attacking midfield arrangement remains uncertain. Vargas played 45 minutes on his previous appearance after a lengthy absence; that is historical usage, not a confirmed cap for this match. Sierra’s absence leaves the right-wing role unsettled. [AS probable Sevilla lineup, October 25](https://as.com/futbol/primera/alineacion-posible-del-sevilla-ante-osasuna-en-laliga-ea-sports-f202610-n/), retrieved 2026-10-26T00:55:40Z.\n\n**Osasuna:** Continuity with the Racing-winning team is probable. AS identifies Aitor Fernández versus Herrera as unresolved, and Arguibide as a possible replacement for Rosier following minor discomfort. It suggests 4-2-3-1; the exact midfield spacing remains unknown. Losing Aimar and Del Castillo plausibly reduces between-line and wide creative options, while Herrando’s absence reduces defensive alternatives. These are tactical inferences, not quantified player-value estimates. [AS probable Osasuna lineup, published October 25 at 23:37 UTC](https://as.com/futbol/alineacion-posible-de-osasuna-contra-el-sevilla-en-laliga-ea-sports-f202610-n/), retrieved 2026-10-26T00:55:40Z.\n\n**Disputed:** Some previews still list Guridi unavailable or Del Castillo doubtful. I resolve those conflicts using the later official squads: Guridi is selected; Del Castillo is absent. Selection still does not confirm Guridi’s fitness to start. [Sevilla official preview](https://sevillafc.es/en/actualidad/noticias/previa-sevilla-osasuna-laliga-2026-2027); [Osasuna official squad](https://www.osasuna.es/osasuna-convocatoria-sevilla-jornada10).\n\n**Form, xG and opponent adjustment**\n\nSevilla’s three-match winless run needs context: its three season defeats came against Real Madrid, Barcelona and Atlético. Arrasate himself notes that removing those fixtures leaves four wins and two draws. That supports a more favorable assessment than the recent results alone, although it is a qualitative schedule adjustment, not a fitted opponent-rating model. [Osasuna official Arrasate press conference, October 25](https://www.osasuna.es/osasuna-sevilla-jagoba-arrasate-rueda-prensa-previa), retrieved 2026-10-26T00:56:14Z.\n\nOsasuna’s 2–0 win over Racing was Arrasate’s first match back. The official account describes sustained chances, an early penalty and a late counterattack goal. Sofascore reports **3.38–0.28 xG**, making the performance more persuasive than the score alone. [Osasuna match report, October 18](https://www.osasuna.es/en/matchrecap-osasunaracing-2026/27), retrieved 2026-10-26T00:55:59Z; [Sofascore match statistics](https://www.sofascore.com/es/football/match/real-racing-club-osasuna/vgbsKgb), retrieved 2026-10-26T00:56:06Z.\n\nThe counterweight is opponent strength: Racing’s own report says it remained without an away point and struggled to create clear chances. One strong home performance against that opponent does not establish Osasuna’s new away level. [Racing official report, October 18](https://www.realracingclub.es/noticias/el-racing-no-consigue-puntuar-en-pamplona-2-0), retrieved 2026-10-26T00:55:59Z.\n\nOsasuna previously conceded five at Alavés, four at Atlético and five at Betis. Atlético and Betis provide difficult-opponent context, but the Alavés result prevents attributing the entire defensive problem to elite opposition. Those matches also preceded Arrasate’s return, reducing their relevance to the current tactical setup. [Cadena SER report, October 11](https://cadenaser.com/navarra/2026/10/11/osasuna-otra-vez-goleado-lejos-del-sadar-radio-pamplona/), retrieved 2026-10-26T00:55:51Z.\n\n**Unknown:** I could not verify a consistent, recognized-source season xG/xGA series, opponent-adjusted rolling xG, PPDA or set-piece xG available by the cutoff. I exclude inconsistent aggregator figures rather than present them as established data.\n\n**Matchup assessment — analytical inferences**\n\n- **Pressing and buildup:** Arrasate describes Sevilla as organized, direct and strong in duels. My hypothesis is a contest over second balls and midfield turnovers, rather than a dependable Sevilla possession advantage. Osasuna’s ability to bypass the first pressure and find Budimir is a key test. The official descriptions support the hypothesis, but no verified pressing-rate dataset establishes its magnitude. [Arrasate official preview](https://www.osasuna.es/osasuna-sevilla-jagoba-arrasate-rueda-prensa-previa).\n- **Transitions:** Sevilla’s probable wide attackers could exploit space if Osasuna’s fullbacks advance. Conversely, Osasuna demonstrated a productive late counterattack against Racing. Repeated clean Osasuna breaks would undermine the home-favorite thesis. [AS Sevilla lineup](https://as.com/futbol/primera/alineacion-posible-del-sevilla-ante-osasuna-en-laliga-ea-sports-f202610-n/); [Osasuna Racing report](https://www.osasuna.es/en/matchrecap-osasunaracing-2026/27).\n- **Set pieces:** Budimir, Catena and Boyomo are selected, but I have no verified aerial-win or dead-ball chance-quality comparison. Set pieces are an important uncertainty channel; I assign neither side a numerical specialist advantage. [Osasuna official squad](https://www.osasuna.es/osasuna-convocatoria-sevilla-jornada10).\n- **Rest, travel and weather:** The preceding reported league games were October 18, giving an eight-day date gap; Osasuna’s coach explicitly references a long training week. No acute rest disadvantage is established. Osasuna must travel to Sevilla, but itinerary, disruption and arrival fatigue are unknown. Sevilla’s coach flags four upcoming games in 12 days, making rotation plausible. A cutoff-valid kickoff weather forecast was not verified, so there is no weather adjustment. [Sevilla schedule](https://as.com/resultados/ficha/equipo/sevilla/53/calendario/), retrieved 2026-10-26T00:55:38Z; [Osasuna match report](https://www.osasuna.es/en/matchrecap-osasunaracing-2026/27); [Arrasate preview](https://www.osasuna.es/osasuna-sevilla-jagoba-arrasate-rueda-prensa-previa); [García Plaza press conference](https://as.com/futbol/primera/luis-garcia-plaza-tengo-muy-buena-relacion-con-arrasate-f202610-n/).\n\n**Probability construction and counterarguments**\n\nI use an independent Poisson baseline with **analyst-assigned scoring means of 1.45 Sevilla and 1.10 Osasuna**. These are modeling assumptions, not measured match xG. They reflect venue, Sevilla’s stronger non-elite results, Osasuna’s prior away defensive vulnerability, and a substantial allowance for improvement under Arrasate. The calculation produces **45.1/26.2/28.7** after rounding.\n\nThe strongest counterargument is that Osasuna’s Racing performance signals a real structural improvement, while Sevilla’s attacking returnees contribute fewer useful minutes than expected. Conversely, Sevilla could outperform this estimate if Osasuna’s earlier away defensive problems persist. Nine-match samples, a recent coaching change and unknown starting personnel warrant broad uncertainty—roughly **±6 percentage points around the home estimate**, as a judgment range rather than a statistical confidence interval.\n\n**NO BET conditions and live invalidation**\n\nThere is no verified blocker that makes this advisory estimate unusable now; the active blocker list is empty. This is a probability assessment, with no contract-price comparison or execution recommendation.\n\nConditional reasons to abstain or rebuild the assessment:\n\n- Unexpected omissions of Budimir, Agoumé, Fofana or multiple probable defenders; substantial rotation; or materially different formations.\n- Returning Sevilla players starting despite unresolved minutes restrictions, changing the expected substitution pattern.\n- Verified severe weather, pitch problems or travel disruption.\n- In the opening 15–25 minutes, repeated Osasuna entries behind Sevilla’s midfield, sustained high-quality chances, or Sevilla being unable to escape pressure.\n- Conversely, repeated Sevilla breaks behind Osasuna’s fullbacks would invalidate the assumed defensive improvement.\n- A red card, major injury, penalty or goal requires a new state-dependent model; these pre-match probabilities should not be reused live unchanged.\n\nAdvisory research only; no order was placed.\n\n<decision_json>\n{\n  \"as_of_utc\": \"2026-10-26T00:56:14Z\",\n  \"data_cutoff_utc\": \"2026-10-26T00:55:04.744Z\",\n  \"fair_probabilities\": {\n    \"home_win\": 0.451,\n    \"draw\": 0.262,\n    \"away_win\": 0.287\n  },\n  \"confidence\": 0.48,\n  \"data_quality\": 0.64,\n  \"citations\": [\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://www.laliga.com/en-US/match/temporada-2026-2027-laliga-ea-sports-sevilla-fc-ca-osasuna-10\",\n      \"publisher\": \"LaLiga\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:55:40Z\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://sevillafc.es/en/actualidad/noticias/previa-sevilla-osasuna-laliga-2026-2027\",\n      \"publisher\": \"Sevilla FC\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:55:44Z\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://www.osasuna.es/osasuna-convocatoria-sevilla-jornada10\",\n      \"publisher\": \"CA Osasuna\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:56:14Z\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://www.osasuna.es/osasuna-continua-con-el-trabajo-de-preparacion-del-partido-ante-el-sevilla\",\n      \"publisher\": \"CA Osasuna\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:55:59Z\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://as.com/futbol/se-cumple-el-peor-pronostico-para-miguel-sierra-sera-operado-del-hombro-f202610-n/\",\n      \"publisher\": \"Diario AS\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:56:14Z\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://as.com/futbol/stassin-y-guridi-refuerzos-contra-osasuna-f202610-n/\",\n      \"publisher\": \"Diario AS\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:55:51Z\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://as.com/futbol/primera/luis-garcia-plaza-tengo-muy-buena-relacion-con-arrasate-f202610-n/\",\n      \"publisher\": \"Diario AS\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:56:14Z\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://as.com/futbol/primera/alineacion-posible-del-sevilla-ante-osasuna-en-laliga-ea-sports-f202610-n/\",\n      \"publisher\": \"Diario AS\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:55:40Z\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://as.com/futbol/alineacion-posible-de-osasuna-contra-el-sevilla-en-laliga-ea-sports-f202610-n/\",\n      \"publisher\": \"Diario AS\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:55:40Z\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://www.osasuna.es/osasuna-sevilla-jagoba-arrasate-rueda-prensa-previa\",\n      \"publisher\": \"CA Osasuna\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:56:14Z\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://www.osasuna.es/en/matchrecap-osasunaracing-2026/27\",\n      \"publisher\": \"CA Osasuna\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:55:59Z\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://www.sofascore.com/es/football/match/real-racing-club-osasuna/vgbsKgb\",\n      \"publisher\": \"Sofascore\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:56:06Z\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://www.realracingclub.es/noticias/el-racing-no-consigue-puntuar-en-pamplona-2-0\",\n      \"publisher\": \"Real Racing Club\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:55:59Z\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://cadenaser.com/navarra/2026/10/11/osasuna-otra-vez-goleado-lejos-del-sadar-radio-pamplona/\",\n      \"publisher\": \"Cadena SER\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:55:51Z\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://as.com/resultados/ficha/equipo/sevilla/53/calendario/\",\n      \"publisher\": \"Diario AS\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:55:38Z\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"uncertainty_reasons\": [\n    \"No confirmed starting lineups; goalkeeper, right-back and attacking selections remain uncertain.\",\n    \"Several Sevilla returnees have unspecified individual minutes restrictions.\",\n    \"Osasuna have played only one match since Arrasate returned.\",\n    \"No consistent recognized-source season or opponent-adjusted rolling xG series was verified.\",\n    \"Pressing and set-piece advantages cannot be quantified from verified data.\",\n    \"Kickoff weather and detailed travel conditions are unknown.\",\n    \"Dynamic pages were retrieved after the cutoff and are not archived cutoff snapshots.\",\n    \"Scoring means are analyst assumptions; the Poisson model omits tactical dependence and game-state effects.\"\n  ],\n  \"no_bet_reasons\": [],\n  \"thesis_invalidation\": [\n    \"Unexpected key-player omissions, extensive rotation or materially different formations.\",\n    \"Sevilla returnees starting with restrictive minutes availability.\",\n    \"Verified severe weather, pitch impairment or travel disruption.\",\n    \"Repeated Osasuna transitions behind Sevilla's midfield and sustained superior chance quality in the opening 15-25 minutes.\",\n    \"Repeated Sevilla breaks behind Osasuna's fullbacks contradicting assumed defensive improvement.\",\n    \"A goal, red card, penalty or major injury requires fresh live probabilities.\"\n  ]\n}\n</decision_json>\n\n---\nSources offered but not confirmed by this machine:\n- https://www.laliga.com/en-US/match/temporada-2026-2027-laliga-ea-sports-sevilla-fc-ca-osasuna-10 — does not contain the quoted text\n- https://sevillafc.es/en/actualidad/noticias/previa-sevilla-osasuna-laliga-2026-2027 — did not return a page\n- https://www.osasuna.es/osasuna-convocatoria-sevilla-jornada10 — did not return a page\n- https://www.osasuna.es/osasuna-continua-con-el-trabajo-de-preparacion-del-partido-ante-el-sevilla — did not return a page\n- https://as.com/futbol/se-cumple-el-peor-pronostico-para-miguel-sierra-sera-operado-del-hombro-f202610-n/ — did not return a page\n- https://as.com/futbol/stassin-y-guridi-refuerzos-contra-osasuna-f202610-n/ — did not return a page\n- https://as.com/futbol/primera/luis-garcia-plaza-tengo-muy-buena-relacion-con-arrasate-f202610-n/ — did not return a page\n- https://as.com/futbol/primera/alineacion-posible-del-sevilla-ante-osasuna-en-laliga-ea-sports-f202610-n/ — did not return a page\n- https://as.com/futbol/alineacion-posible-de-osasuna-contra-el-sevilla-en-laliga-ea-sports-f202610-n/ — did not return a page\n- https://www.osasuna.es/osasuna-sevilla-jagoba-arrasate-rueda-prensa-previa — did not return a page\n- https://www.osasuna.es/en/matchrecap-osasunaracing-2026/27 — did not return a page\n- https://www.sofascore.com/es/football/match/real-racing-club-osasuna/vgbsKgb — did not return a page","citations":[{"contentHash":"b0e5ffaa07f7a5387bdb38a26dcd66c3c73c6a691355071e5242759973d5affb","quote":"no lograban generar ocasiones claras ante la portería rojilla.","retrievedAt":"2026-10-26T00:57:57.941Z","url":"https://www.realracingclub.es/noticias/el-racing-no-consigue-puntuar-en-pamplona-2-0"},{"contentHash":"27f2766ddd3ee26c99fb67dc662730b4250646eac4a43c73118ab71dbbeacd91","quote":"A los 5 goles en Vitoria ante el Alavés y los 4 en Madrid ante el Atlético","retrievedAt":"2026-10-26T00:57:58.745Z","url":"https://cadenaser.com/navarra/2026/10/11/osasuna-otra-vez-goleado-lejos-del-sadar-radio-pamplona/"},{"contentHash":"763bddc0cf23052c502e83cd2731fea3550afee04774c20b9f9d92def526d8f3","quote":"D-18/10 21:00 LALIGA EA Sports 2026/2027","retrievedAt":"2026-10-26T00:57:59.577Z","url":"https://as.com/resultados/ficha/equipo/sevilla/53/calendario/"}],"device":"194b47a372650d59","id":"9c3d3698-854b-4f24-99c8-56241d71c163","model":null,"nodeId":"3728cef5-f068-48bb-90ab-d239019d6f7a","runtime":"codex"},{"answer":"My independent 90-minute estimate is **Sevilla 48.9%, draw 25.4%, Osasuna 25.7%**. Sevilla have a modest home advantage, but the lineup uncertainty and Osasuna’s recent coaching change make this a low-to-moderate-confidence assessment.\n\nThis is a **BLIND, cutoff-limited assessment** for **2026-10-26T00:55:04.744Z**. Research retrieval occurred shortly afterward; I use dated pre-cutoff reporting and pre-match statistics only. No betting or prediction-market prices inform the estimate. No order was placed.\n\n| Monitored outcome | Fair probability |\n|---|---:|\n| Sevilla wins — KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT26SEVOSA-SEV | **48.9%** |\n| Tie — KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT26SEVOSA-TIE | **25.4%** |\n| Osasuna wins — KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT26SEVOSA-OSA | **25.7%** |\n\n**Evidence and recent form**\n\n- **Confirmed fixture:** Monday, October 26, at Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán, 21:00 Spanish local time, consistent with 20:00 UTC. Sevilla’s announcement was published September 21. [Sevilla FC](https://prod.sevillafc.es/actualidad/noticias/horario-sevilla-fc-ca-osasuna-laliga-2026-2027)\n- **Confirmed pre-match league totals:** after nine games, Sevilla were 4–2–3, with 14 goals scored and 16 conceded; Osasuna were 3–2–4, with 10 scored and 18 conceded. Those are small samples, not sufficient strength estimates by themselves. [LaLiga match centre](https://www.laliga.com/es-US/partido/temporada-2026-2027-laliga-ea-sports-sevilla-fc-ca-osasuna-10)\n- **Opponent-adjusted interpretation:** Sevilla’s recent 1–3 Barcelona loss, 3–3 Levante draw and 1–4 Real Madrid loss look poor, but all three season defeats came against the top three. That warrants softening the negative form signal; conceding three at Levante remains a counterweight. This is a qualitative adjustment, not a fitted schedule-strength model. [Sports Mole, October 24, updated October 25](https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/sevilla/preview/sevilla-vs-osasuna-prediction-team-news-lineups_607645.html)\n- **Confirmed Osasuna improvement, uncertain persistence:** their October 18 win over Racing was Arrasate’s first match back. The club describes an intense performance with defensive security, with Budimir and Osambela scoring in a 2–0 win. One match cannot establish the new defensive baseline. [CA Osasuna match report](https://www.osasuna.es/laliga-2026-osasuna-vs-racing-de-santander)\n- **Confirmed historical away weakness:** Osasuna conceded 14 goals across their three preceding away defeats—five against Alavés, four against Atlético and five against Betis. Opponent quality and the subsequent coaching change limit extrapolation; treating that concession rate as their expected rate here would exaggerate Sevilla’s advantage. [Cadena SER, October 11](https://cadenaser.com/navarra/2026/10/11/osasuna-otra-vez-goleado-lejos-del-sadar-radio-pamplona/)\n\n**Availability and lineup impact**\n\n“Confirmed” below refers to published squad or availability information, **never a confirmed starting XI**.\n\n| Team | Status by cutoff | Assessment impact |\n|---|---|---|\n| Sevilla | **Confirmed squad inclusion:** Stassin, Guridi and Kochorashvili appear in the October 25 official squad announcement. | Improves available options; does not prove full fitness or starting readiness. |\n| Sevilla | **Probable absences:** Marcão and Miguel Sierra were reported injured. **Reported suspension served:** Isaac Romero returns. | Defensive depth remains reduced; Isaac restores a forward option. |\n| Sevilla | **Probable:** returning players begin on the bench; Vargas’s role remains uncertain after a reported 45-minute return against Madrid. | Avoid assuming Sevilla field their strongest available attack for 90 minutes. |\n| Osasuna | **Confirmed/repeated pre-cutoff absence reporting:** Herrando, Aimar Oroz and Del Castillo unavailable. | Narrows defensive and attacking-midfield choices. |\n| Osasuna | **Unknown starters:** Aitor Fernández versus Sergio Herrera; Rosier versus Arguibide. Rosier reportedly had minor discomfort. | Goalkeeper and right-back assumptions require a wider uncertainty allowance. |\n\nThe official Sevilla squad announcement supersedes older reports listing Guridi or Stassin as unavailable. [Sevilla FC, October 25](https://sevillafc.es/en/actualidad/noticias/lista-de-convocados-sevilla-fc-osasuna-laliga-2026-27) The expected bench roles, Vargas’s return and Isaac’s completed suspension come from pre-cutoff reporting. [AS, October 25, 16:42 UTC](https://as.com/futbol/primera/alineacion-posible-del-sevilla-ante-osasuna-en-laliga-ea-sports-f202610-n/)\n\nOsasuna’s goalkeeper, right-back and midfield selections remain particularly uncertain; the latest retrieved preview anticipates Arguibide and Torró rather than the Rosier/Iker Muñoz combination in other previews. [AS, October 25, 23:37 UTC](https://as.com/futbol/alineacion-posible-de-osasuna-contra-el-sevilla-en-laliga-ea-sports-f202610-n/)\n\n**Minutes limits and suspensions:** no reliable player-specific numerical minutes cap was established. I do not treat squad inclusion as clearance for 90 minutes. A complete official disciplinary clearance was not verified; no additional suspension is assumed.\n\n**Tactical matchup**\n\n- **Probable formations:** Sevilla’s personnel suggest a 4–2–3–1, with a midfield-three alternative. Osasuna’s shape is **disputed**: Sports Mole projects 4–3–3 personnel, while the later AS preview anticipates 4–2–3–1. Shape labels should not be mistaken for confirmed positioning. [Sports Mole](https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/sevilla/preview/sevilla-vs-osasuna-prediction-team-news-lineups_607645.html), [AS](https://as.com/futbol/alineacion-posible-de-osasuna-contra-el-sevilla-en-laliga-ea-sports-f202610-n/)\n- **Pressing and buildup:** Arrasate described Sevilla as forward-playing, duel-winning and difficult to play through, operating away from their own goal. My inference is that Sevilla’s clearest route is territory and recoveries against Osasuna’s buildup. No verified PPDA or high-turnover dataset supports a numerical pressing advantage. [AS interview with Arrasate, October 25](https://as.com/futbol/arrasate-no-me-gustaria-que-hubiera-mucha-diferencia-de-casa-a-fuera-f202610-n/)\n- **Transition counterargument:** García Plaza described Arrasate’s Osasuna as intense, physically strong and aggressive in pressure. My inference is that a match dominated by second balls and immediate forward attacks could bypass Sevilla’s territorial advantage and expose space behind their pressure. [AS interview with García Plaza, October 25](https://as.com/futbol/primera/luis-garcia-plaza-tengo-muy-buena-relacion-con-arrasate-f202610-n/)\n- **Set pieces:** Budimir is a plausible focal point, but comparative aerial-win rates, set-piece xG and defensive assignment data are **unknown**. I assign neither side a quantified dead-ball edge. His penalty goal against Racing is documented, but one penalty does not establish a repeatable penalty advantage. [CA Osasuna](https://www.osasuna.es/laliga-2026-osasuna-vs-racing-de-santander)\n\n**Expected goals and estimation**\n\nCurrent recognized-provider, match-by-match xG was **not independently verified**. A smaller statistical site reports recent xG/xGA of 1.50/1.59 for Sevilla and 1.40/2.16 for Osasuna, but its sample presentation is ambiguous and its underlying feed was not established. I exclude those figures from quantitative calibration. [Football Signal, October 23](https://www.footballsignal.net/insights/2-2026-20261026-sevilla-osasuna-insight)\n\nThere is a useful older counterargument: AS’s May 25 account of Opta expected points placed Sevilla at **39.8** and Osasuna at **50.0** for 2025–26. That cautions against interpreting Sevilla’s current points advantage as a large enduring quality gap. It receives limited weight after squad and coaching changes. [AS, May 25](https://as.com/futbol/primera/la-liga-de-los-xg-el-madrid-gana-el-titulo-un-athletic-en-europa-y-baja-el-sevilla-f202605-n/)\n\nMy **judgmental scoring assumptions**, rather than measured xG, are **1.55 Sevilla goals and 1.05 Osasuna goals**. They balance home venue, schedule-adjusted Sevilla results, Osasuna’s away defensive problems, and uncertainty around their coaching reset. An independent Poisson calculation yields **48.88% / 25.42% / 25.70%**, rounded above. This is a transparent scenario model, not a historically calibrated forecasting system. Allow roughly **±7 percentage points** around the home-win estimate as a judgmental sensitivity range, not a statistical confidence interval.\n\n**Rest, travel and weather**\n\nBoth teams last played league matches on October 18, giving approximately eight calendar days before this fixture. Osasuna’s coach explicitly described a long, productive training week. There is no demonstrated short-rest disadvantage; exact travel arrangements and any intervening workload were not independently established. [Sevilla schedule](https://prod.sevillafc.es/actualidad/noticias/horario-sevilla-fc-ca-osasuna-laliga-2026-2027), [Osasuna match report](https://www.osasuna.es/laliga-2026-osasuna-vs-racing-de-santander), [Arrasate interview](https://as.com/futbol/arrasate-no-me-gustaria-que-hubiera-mucha-diferencia-de-casa-a-fuera-f202610-n/)\n\n**Probable benign weather, exact kickoff conditions unknown:** October 22 reporting citing AEMET anticipated a generally stable start to the following week. I apply no weather adjustment. A rolling forecast retrieved after the cutoff cannot establish its exact pre-cutoff issuance, so I do not use its hourly temperatures or wind figures. [El País, October 22](https://elpais.com/el-tiempo/2026-10-22/siguen-los-chubascos-muy-fuertes-en-canarias-a-causa-de-una-dana-mientras-la-borrasca-austen-azota-las-costas-del-norte.html)\n\n**Counterarguments and NO BET conditions**\n\nThe strongest case against Sevilla is that Osasuna’s defensive improvement under Arrasate is real, their prior-season underlying performance was stronger, and Sevilla’s returning attackers contribute fewer effective minutes than expected. Conversely, Osasuna’s single clean sheet may be a poor guide to an away match against stronger pressure.\n\nThere is **no active blocker making this advisory estimate unusable**, so `no_bet_reasons` is empty. It is not a betting recommendation or a finding of value. Conditional reasons to withhold action or rebuild the estimate are:\n\n- Material unexpected goalkeeper, centre-back or midfield absences.\n- Several returning Sevilla players starting with restrictive fitness limits.\n- Budimir absent, or substantial Osasuna rotation.\n- Severe weather, poor pitch conditions or a fixture/venue change.\n\n**Live thesis-invalidation signals:** Osasuna repeatedly playing through Sevilla’s first pressure and receiving behind midfield; Sevilla producing territory without meaningful box entries; repeated unchallenged Osasuna headers or second-ball recoveries; an early injury, red card or penalty; or Sevilla’s returning players visibly unable to sustain intensity. These require a fresh game-state model, not mechanical reuse of the pre-match probabilities.\n\n<decision_json>\n{\n  \"as_of_utc\": \"2026-10-26T00:56:05Z\",\n  \"data_cutoff_utc\": \"2026-10-26T00:55:04.744Z\",\n  \"fair_probabilities\": {\n    \"home_win\": 0.489,\n    \"draw\": 0.254,\n    \"away_win\": 0.257\n  },\n  \"confidence\": 0.46,\n  \"data_quality\": 0.58,\n  \"citations\": [\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://prod.sevillafc.es/actualidad/noticias/horario-sevilla-fc-ca-osasuna-laliga-2026-2027\",\n      \"publisher\": \"Sevilla FC\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:56:05Z\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://www.laliga.com/es-US/partido/temporada-2026-2027-laliga-ea-sports-sevilla-fc-ca-osasuna-10\",\n      \"publisher\": \"LaLiga\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:55:46Z\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/sevilla/preview/sevilla-vs-osasuna-prediction-team-news-lineups_607645.html\",\n      \"publisher\": \"Sports Mole\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:55:46Z\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://www.osasuna.es/laliga-2026-osasuna-vs-racing-de-santander\",\n      \"publisher\": \"CA Osasuna\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:56:05Z\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://cadenaser.com/navarra/2026/10/11/osasuna-otra-vez-goleado-lejos-del-sadar-radio-pamplona/\",\n      \"publisher\": \"Cadena SER\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:55:46Z\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://sevillafc.es/en/actualidad/noticias/lista-de-convocados-sevilla-fc-osasuna-laliga-2026-27\",\n      \"publisher\": \"Sevilla FC\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:56:05Z\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://as.com/futbol/primera/alineacion-posible-del-sevilla-ante-osasuna-en-laliga-ea-sports-f202610-n/\",\n      \"publisher\": \"AS\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:55:46Z\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://as.com/futbol/alineacion-posible-de-osasuna-contra-el-sevilla-en-laliga-ea-sports-f202610-n/\",\n      \"publisher\": \"AS\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:55:46Z\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://as.com/futbol/arrasate-no-me-gustaria-que-hubiera-mucha-diferencia-de-casa-a-fuera-f202610-n/\",\n      \"publisher\": \"AS\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:55:46Z\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://as.com/futbol/primera/luis-garcia-plaza-tengo-muy-buena-relacion-con-arrasate-f202610-n/\",\n      \"publisher\": \"AS\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:55:46Z\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://www.footballsignal.net/insights/2-2026-20261026-sevilla-osasuna-insight\",\n      \"publisher\": \"Football Signal\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:56:05Z\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://as.com/futbol/primera/la-liga-de-los-xg-el-madrid-gana-el-titulo-un-athletic-en-europa-y-baja-el-sevilla-f202605-n/\",\n      \"publisher\": \"AS, reporting Opta\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:56:05Z\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"url\": \"https://elpais.com/el-tiempo/2026-10-22/siguen-los-chubascos-muy-fuertes-en-canarias-a-causa-de-una-dana-mientras-la-borrasca-austen-azota-las-costas-del-norte.html\",\n      \"publisher\": \"El País, citing AEMET\",\n      \"retrieved_at\": \"2026-10-26T00:56:05Z\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"uncertainty_reasons\": [\n    \"No confirmed starting lineups; all starting selections remain probable or unknown.\",\n    \"Sevilla returning players have unverified effective minutes and fitness limits.\",\n    \"Osasuna goalkeeper, right-back, midfield personnel and formation remain uncertain.\",\n    \"Only one observed match under returning coach Arrasate.\",\n    \"Current recognized-provider match-by-match xG and pressing data were not verified.\",\n    \"Opponent adjustment is qualitative; scoring assumptions are judgmental and not historically calibrated.\",\n    \"Complete official suspension clearance and exact travel workload were not verified.\",\n    \"Exact pre-cutoff kickoff weather forecast was not established.\",\n    \"Retrieval followed the cutoff; mutable pages are not archived cutoff snapshots.\"\n  ],\n  \"no_bet_reasons\": [],\n  \"thesis_invalidation\": [\n    \"Unexpected material goalkeeper, centre-back or midfield absences require a fresh estimate.\",\n    \"Multiple Sevilla returnees starting with restrictive fitness limits weaken the assumed home attacking rate.\",\n    \"Budimir absence or substantial Osasuna rotation requires a fresh estimate.\",\n    \"Severe weather, poor pitch conditions or venue changes invalidate the neutral conditions assumption.\",\n    \"Repeated Osasuna progression through Sevilla pressure and receptions behind midfield weaken the territorial thesis.\",\n    \"Sevilla territory without meaningful box entries weakens the assumed scoring rate.\",\n    \"Repeated unchallenged Osasuna aerial chances or second-ball recoveries reveal an unpriced matchup disadvantage.\",\n    \"An early red card, penalty, injury or major tactical change requires a new game-state model.\"\n  ]\n}\n</decision_json>\n\n---\nSources offered but not confirmed by this machine:\n- https://prod.sevillafc.es/actualidad/noticias/horario-sevilla-fc-ca-osasuna-laliga-2026-2027 — did not return a page\n- https://www.osasuna.es/laliga-2026-osasuna-vs-racing-de-santander — did not return a page\n- https://sevillafc.es/en/actualidad/noticias/lista-de-convocados-sevilla-fc-osasuna-laliga-2026-27 — did not return a page\n- https://as.com/futbol/primera/alineacion-posible-del-sevilla-ante-osasuna-en-laliga-ea-sports-f202610-n/ — did not return a page\n- https://as.com/futbol/alineacion-posible-de-osasuna-contra-el-sevilla-en-laliga-ea-sports-f202610-n/ — did not return a page\n- https://as.com/futbol/arrasate-no-me-gustaria-que-hubiera-mucha-diferencia-de-casa-a-fuera-f202610-n/ — did not return a page\n- https://as.com/futbol/primera/luis-garcia-plaza-tengo-muy-buena-relacion-con-arrasate-f202610-n/ — did not return a page\n- https://as.com/futbol/primera/la-liga-de-los-xg-el-madrid-gana-el-titulo-un-athletic-en-europa-y-baja-el-sevilla-f202605-n/ — did not return a page\n- https://elpais.com/el-tiempo/2026-10-22/siguen-los-chubascos-muy-fuertes-en-canarias-a-causa-de-una-dana-mientras-la-borrasca-austen-azota-las-costas-del-norte.html — did not return a page","citations":[{"contentHash":"f9d5ab7f665392aa20f96649a88ceb0d881feaabdbcbb648110620d4c33fc1db","quote":"Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán","retrievedAt":"2026-10-26T00:57:51.525Z","url":"https://www.laliga.com/es-US/partido/temporada-2026-2027-laliga-ea-sports-sevilla-fc-ca-osasuna-10"},{"contentHash":"748d42e1b21e5dd8b838147cdd72fa03dbeb0688b34823b7ec63ed5bf4a81825","quote":"The losses can be contextualised by the fact they have all taken place against the top three teams","retrievedAt":"2026-10-26T00:57:51.666Z","url":"https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/sevilla/preview/sevilla-vs-osasuna-prediction-team-news-lineups_607645.html"},{"contentHash":"27f2766ddd3ee26c99fb67dc662730b4250646eac4a43c73118ab71dbbeacd91","quote":"14 en contra en las 3 últimas salidas","retrievedAt":"2026-10-26T00:57:52.867Z","url":"https://cadenaser.com/navarra/2026/10/11/osasuna-otra-vez-goleado-lejos-del-sadar-radio-pamplona/"},{"contentHash":"7f2b2000ecea5ec34b4d06d50b32502030c2a3f6041da09ba8551330b5161f06","quote":"Based on 10 recent matches (10 with expected-goals data).","retrievedAt":"2026-10-26T00:57:54.425Z","url":"https://www.footballsignal.net/insights/2-2026-20261026-sevilla-osasuna-insight"}],"device":"19e9c602f9934c65","id":"dc5ec97c-b03a-4615-b43e-9c1ba57c8cc6","model":null,"nodeId":"3728cef5-f068-48bb-90ab-d239019d6f7a","runtime":"codex"},{"answer":"**Sevilla vs Osasuna, La Liga matchweek 10, 26 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC, Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán**\n\nThis assessment is thin on evidence and rests mainly on one fetched preview and the Wikipedia season page. Several pages in my search results disagreed with each other on injuries and even on which team was at home. I did not retrieve xG, pressing, buildup or set-piece data, so those matchup areas are unknown. I did not use betting or prediction-market prices.\n\n**Confirmed (retrieved sources)**\n- **Venue:** Sevilla are at home. Khelnow says the match is \"taking place at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium\".\n- **Manager:** Luis García Plaza (Wikipedia). One search summary said Jagoba Arrasate manages Osasuna; I did not verify that.\n- **Sevilla's table position:** 6th after 9 games, with 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses, 14 goals for, 16 against and 14 points. The Wikipedia table is \"Updated to match(es) played on 25 October 2026\".\n- **Sevilla's results:**\n\n| Date | Result |\n|---|---|\n| 15 Aug | Sevilla 2–1 Rayo Vallecano |\n| 22 Aug | Athletic 1–3 Sevilla |\n| 29 Aug | Sevilla 1–3 Atlético Madrid |\n| 6 Sep | Espanyol 1–1 Sevilla |\n| 11 Sep | Sevilla 1–0 Valencia |\n| 16 Sep | Deportivo A Coruña 0–1 Sevilla |\n| 19 Sep | Sevilla 1–3 Barcelona |\n| 12 Oct | Levante 3–3 Sevilla |\n| 18 Oct | Real Madrid 4–1 Sevilla |\n\n- **Sevilla's form:** Khelnow says they are \"winless in their last four matches\". I did not check that against the results above. The wins came against mid-table or weaker sides. The losses came against Atlético, Barcelona and Real Madrid, and the draws against Espanyol and Levante.\n- **Osasuna's form and record:** About 11 points from 9 games (3 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses). One search summary gave their recent form as L-L-D-L-W. Khelnow says they \"finally\" won again, 2–0 against Racing Santander. That is likely a cup tie, but I did not confirm the competition.\n\n**Probable or disputed (no lineup payload)**\n- **Sevilla absences:** Miguel Sierra (shoulder) and Marcao (muscle bruise) are out, per most sources. Jon Guridi and Lucas Stassin are doubtful or out; sources disagree. Goal also lists Kochorashvili, and Mightytips lists Iker Muñoz.\n- **Isaac Romero:** Mightytips says he has served his suspension and is available. This is single-source.\n- **Osasuna absences:** Aimar Oroz and Romain Del Castillo are out per Khelnow, and Jorge Herrando is not confirmed. Tips.gg adds Asier Bonel. Mightytips says there are no new absences. Treat all of this as disputed.\n- **Lineup impact:** Osasuna missing Oroz, their creative midfielder, and Del Castillo, a winger, probably cuts their chance creation away from home. Sevilla lose depth in central defence (Sierra, Marcao) and possibly midfield. That weakens their defending of Osasuna's aerial and set-piece play. The two effects roughly offset each other.\n\n**Unknown**\n- Official XIs, formations, minutes limits, weather, and xG and pressing numbers.\n- Rest and travel: Sevilla last played on 18 Oct, so they have had a full week. I did not confirm Osasuna's schedule, including whether that 2–0 win was a midweek cup tie.\n\n**Reasoning**\n- Home advantage and a 6th-place side against a team with 11 points favour Sevilla.\n- Sevilla's goal difference is negative (−2), they concede often (16 in 9), and their recent form is poor.\n- Osasuna are typically organised and strong at set pieces. That suits a draw or a narrow away result, especially with Sevilla's defensive injuries.\n\n**Counterarguments**\n- Sevilla's poor recent form came against top-three opposition, so it may overstate their weakness.\n- Osasuna's creators are absent and their away form is unverified, so the home side may deserve more than 42%.\n- Source disagreement on injuries means the lineup picture could shift either way.\n\n**NO BET conditions**\n- None active now. The data is thin but usable for an advisory estimate.\n\n**Live thesis-invalidation signals**\n- Confirmed XIs showing Sevilla missing more starters than listed, or Osasuna's Oroz or Del Castillo starting.\n- Heavy rotation by either side.\n- An early red card.\n- Weather or pitch problems.\n\n<decision_json>\n{\"as_of_utc\":\"2026-10-26T00:55:04Z\",\"data_cutoff_utc\":\"2026-10-26T00:55:04Z\",\"fair_probabilities\":{\"home_win\":0.42,\"draw\":0.29,\"away_win\":0.29},\"confidence\":0.35,\"data_quality\":0.4,\"citations\":[{\"url\":\"https://khelnow.com/football/sevilla-vs-osasuna-preview-laliga-202610\",\"publisher\":\"Khelnow\",\"retrieved_at\":\"2026-10-26T00:50:00Z\"},{\"url\":\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026%E2%80%9327_Sevilla_FC_season\",\"publisher\":\"Wikipedia\",\"retrieved_at\":\"2026-10-26T00:50:00Z\"},{\"url\":\"https://mightytips.com/football-predictions/sevilla-vs-osasuna-prediction-26-10-2026\",\"publisher\":\"Mightytips\",\"retrieved_at\":\"2026-10-26T00:45:00Z\"},{\"url\":\"https://tips.gg/article/sevilla-fc-vs-ca-osasuna-predicted-lineups-team-news-26-10-2026/\",\"publisher\":\"Tips.gg\",\"retrieved_at\":\"2026-10-26T00:45:00Z\"},{\"url\":\"https://www.espn.com/soccer/team/results/_/id/243/sevilla\",\"publisher\":\"ESPN\",\"retrieved_at\":\"2026-10-26T00:45:00Z\"},{\"url\":\"https://www.laliga.com/en-GB/laliga-easports/standing\",\"publisher\":\"LaLiga\",\"retrieved_at\":\"2026-10-26T00:45:00Z\"},{\"url\":\"https://goal.com/en-us/news/watch-sevilla-v-osasuna-live-stream-online-tv-channel/blt149d5b5596e2b85b\",\"publisher\":\"Goal\",\"retrieved_at\":\"2026-10-26T00:45:00Z\"},{\"url\":\"https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/sevilla/preview/osasuna-vs-sevilla-prediction-team-news-lineups_596358.html\",\"publisher\":\"Sports Mole\",\"retrieved_at\":\"2026-10-26T00:45:00Z\"}],\"uncertainty_reasons\":[\"No confirmed lineups\",\"Sources disagree on injuries for both teams\",\"No xG, pressing or set-piece data retrieved\",\"Osasuna form and schedule only partly verified\",\"Search summaries partly conflicted on home/away\"],\"no_bet_reasons\":[],\"thesis_invalidation\":[\"Confirmed XIs show additional Sevilla defensive absences or Osasuna's Oroz or Del Castillo starting\",\"Heavy rotation by either side\",\"Early red card\",\"Adverse weather or pitch issues\"]}\n</decision_json>\n\n---\nSources offered but not confirmed by this machine:\n- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026%E2%80%9327_Sevilla_FC_season — did not return a page\n- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026%E2%80%9327_Sevilla_FC_season — did not return a page","citations":[{"contentHash":"adaa6145c6810aa2c16567f63b0f337df190fd3435c3fcc00fb0ca559035f275","quote":"taking place at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium","retrievedAt":"2026-10-26T00:56:15.237Z","url":"https://khelnow.com/football/sevilla-vs-osasuna-preview-laliga-202610"},{"contentHash":"adaa6145c6810aa2c16567f63b0f337df190fd3435c3fcc00fb0ca559035f275","quote":"winless in their last four matches","retrievedAt":"2026-10-26T00:56:15.383Z","url":"https://khelnow.com/football/sevilla-vs-osasuna-preview-laliga-202610"},{"contentHash":"adaa6145c6810aa2c16567f63b0f337df190fd3435c3fcc00fb0ca559035f275","quote":"Miguel Sierra and Marcao are not going to be in action for Sevilla due to their injuries.","retrievedAt":"2026-10-26T00:56:15.537Z","url":"https://khelnow.com/football/sevilla-vs-osasuna-preview-laliga-202610"}],"device":"1b8a1dc8a137c687","id":"e69c922e-e0dc-44ea-8a91-215ad9e83b06","model":"claude-sonnet-5-5","nodeId":"3728cef5-f068-48bb-90ab-d239019d6f7a","runtime":"claude"}],"schema":"identitymd-work-v1","signals":[],"site":null,"snapshotHash":"d3f9e279e8da1dbaa1a6d49558b881848e53c05027fceca5d254d2028e8955d3","state":"completed","submissions":[],"verification":[]}