{"assessments":[],"deployments":[],"fuzz":[],"identity":{"adapter":"0xde152afb7db5373f34876e1499fbd893a82dd336","chainId":1,"collection":"0x0000ec93127baa929e58e97dd0095a2bfb38ec1d","registry":"0x8004a169fb4a3325136eb29fa0ceb6d2e539a432"},"interpretation":"Records acceptance and evidence. Neither completion nor an AI assessment establishes correctness, safety, or independent review.","jobId":"1605b88b-a9cf-4da9-9d19-551fa884d3bc","kind":"skill:research-report","nodes":[{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"21656d358d48d3b0336ce17faafd1cd82c9e3bf075370028ed43917a1e7ca7eb","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network"],"skillHash":"3ddca93330036359dd721585e58e67820336a0398b7927b3c89369d6134f30f6","skillId":"research-report","tools":[]},"key":"research_report","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"3ddca93330036359dd721585e58e67820336a0398b7927b3c89369d6134f30f6","skillId":"research-report","state":"accepted"}],"objective":"You are a crypto perpetual futures trader. Produce one trade decision for a player in Paper Clash, a game where players win map tiles with leveraged trades on PaperTrade. The player has chosen to let you make every trading decision. The goal: take the tile H4 (Forest). That needs the trade to close with a net return on margin above +0.2%. If it closes below that the player keeps the PnL but not the tile, so aim to clear the line, and make the player as much as you reasonably can.\n\n## Fixed constraints\n- Market: \"BTC\" or \"ETH\" perpetual (BTC, ETH). Pick the one with the better setup right now.\n- Direction: exactly one of \"long\" or \"short\".\n- Margin: $20 (the player chose it; you don't).\n- Leverage: an integer from 50 to 1000 inclusive (the tile's minimum, and PaperTrade's $1,000-$10M position size).\n- Take-profit: the price move in your favor, in basis points of price from the actual entry (1 bp = 0.01%), not return on margin. It must clear the line:\n        50x → bust 195 bp, take-profit ≥ 1.8 bp\n       525x → bust 14 bp, take-profit ≥ 0.6 bp\n      1000x → bust 5 bp, take-profit ≥ 0.5 bp\n- Stop-loss: a price move against the position in bp, smaller than the bust distance, or null to hold to liquidation (liquidation is then the stop).\n- No time limit: the trade stays open until the take-profit, the stop-loss (or liquidation) or the player closes it, however long that takes. There is no funding, so holding costs nothing.\n- The trade opens a few minutes after you answer (it is queued behind your report), so base the exits on moves from the actual entry, not on your quoted mid.\n\n## Papertrade execution\nEntry and exit fill at the Hyperliquid BBO mid ((best bid + best ask) / 2): no spread, slippage, funding or fee on notional.\nLiquidation: the position is liquidated when the mid moves against it by about 10000 / leverage − 5 bp, and the whole margin is lost.\nWinning closes are haircut (losses are not): a 0.2 bp deadband comes off the move, the gain is scaled by 0.90 / (1 + 1/(move × 15000) + 100000/(1e6 × move × 814.598)) (move as a fraction after the deadband; BTC parameters, ETH is similar), then a 2% win fee. The keep is ~49% at 3 bp, ~61% at 5 bp, ~72% at 10 bp, ~80% at 20 bp, ~85% at 50 bp: tiny take-profits are heavily taxed.\n\n## How to decide\nThe decision is yours. Pull the market data below, and look up anything else that helps (news, scheduled macro events, liquidation levels, other exchanges' flow). Be decisive: always return a trade. Express doubt through confidence, leverage and the exits, not by refusing. Higher leverage multiplies gains but shrinks the survivable adverse move; a stop-loss saves part of the margin but can stop out a trade that would have recovered.\n\n## Market data (Hyperliquid public API, no auth)\nPOST https://api.hyperliquid.xyz/info with Content-Type: application/json. Times are Unix ms. For each of BTC and ETH:\n1. Candles: {\"type\":\"candleSnapshot\",\"req\":{\"coin\":\"BTC\",\"interval\":\"1m\",\"startTime\":<now-60min>,\"endTime\":<now>}}, and 5m over 6 h, 15m over 24 h. Fields: t, T, o/h/l/c (strings), v, n. Oldest first.\n2. Context: {\"type\":\"metaAndAssetCtxs\"} → [meta, ctxs]; ctxs[index of the coin in meta.universe] has markPx, oraclePx, premium, funding (hourly), openInterest, dayNtlVlm, prevDayPx.\n3. Book: {\"type\":\"l2Book\",\"coin\":\"BTC\",\"nSigFigs\":5} → levels[0] bids, levels[1] asks ({px, sz, n}, best first). mid = (best bid + best ask) / 2.\nAlso useful: {\"type\":\"recentTrades\",\"coin\":\"BTC\"}, {\"type\":\"fundingHistory\",\"coin\":\"BTC\",\"startTime\":<ms>}.\n\nUseful metrics, in bp of price so they compare with the bust distance and exits: how often recent 1m windows moved the bust distance against a position before the take-profit in its favor; per-candle adverse excursion; realized volatility over 15/30/60 min and whether it is expanding; distance from VWAP and 1m/5m EMAs; momentum agreement across 1m/5m/15m; trade flow and book imbalance near the mid; funding and premium; open interest vs price; the 24 h range; scheduled events in the next hour.\n\n## Output\nReturn ONLY one JSON object, no fences or commentary. Write it to artifacts/report.md (output \"report\"), not just the final reply. Exactly these keys:\n{\n  \"market\": \"BTC\" | \"ETH\",\n  \"direction\": \"long\" | \"short\",\n  \"leverage\": <integer 50-1000>,\n  \"take_profit_bp\": <number, favorable price move in bp from entry>,\n  \"stop_loss_bp\": <number smaller than bust_distance_bp, or null to hold to liquidation>,\n  \"bust_distance_bp\": <number, 10000/leverage - 5>,\n  \"expected_net_return_on_margin_pct\": <number, if the take-profit hits>,\n  \"confidence\": <number 0.0-1.0>,\n  \"regime\": \"trending_up\" | \"trending_down\" | \"ranging\" | \"volatile_choppy\",\n  \"entry_mid\": <number, the live mid you based the trade on>,\n  \"data_time_utc\": \"<ISO 8601 time you fetched the data>\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"<2-4 plain sentences: the evidence for the market and direction, and why this leverage and these exits fit the volatility and the line to beat>\",\n  \"risks\": \"<1-2 sentences: what would most likely stop it out or liquidate it>\"\n}\nUse JSON numbers (and null for no stop-loss).","parentJobId":null,"planHash":"44f6f6615d1c3fabbff4163a649d5268018b4241bb87b3317431094efc18ad1a","previousHash":"0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000","projectId":"1605b88b-a9cf-4da9-9d19-551fa884d3bc","publication":{"commit":null,"deliveredAt":null,"repoUrl":null},"receiptIdentity":{"adapter":"0xde152afb7db5373f34876e1499fbd893a82dd336","chainId":1,"collection":"0x0000ec93127baa929e58e97dd0095a2bfb38ec1d","registry":"0x8004a169fb4a3325136eb29fa0ceb6d2e539a432"},"registry":"0xb6d0a187b050fa5bb0b87033a203f37becf4a775","research":[],"schema":"identitymd-work-v1","signals":[{"agentId":"53911","feedbackHash":"2646101d891f264b62eeba257cf9fcc9b15eb05309609694cab887e5ab5d717d","nodeKey":"research_report","submissionHash":"21656d358d48d3b0336ce17faafd1cd82c9e3bf075370028ed43917a1e7ca7eb","tag1":"verification:structural","tag2":"acceptance-v2","value":1}],"site":null,"snapshotHash":"e907c295bf057d10f05e3cae41dfe43227c52c5274555ee426129a5f9a893603","state":"completed","submissions":[{"artifacts":[{"bytes":1341,"hash":"27cc5b44ba5b4c6bc7bfbf00af8e003b8b3033829f353d18b9c9026bb6e1e1b8","mediaType":"text/markdown","name":"report","path":"artifacts/report.md"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":"436a985267e520e745a58cfae11aedba6ee0837bdbfb9ddaa3c6171bb3751ad9","device":"0eca5d6d7ad6ddb4","findings":[],"hash":"21656d358d48d3b0336ce17faafd1cd82c9e3bf075370028ed43917a1e7ca7eb","nodeId":"0c66922e-8192-412f-9ba0-72ea86f86d0b","outcome":"completed","summary":"The trade is BTC long at 100x, with an 18 bp take-profit and no stop-loss. It's written to `artifacts/report.md` as the single JSON object the brief asks for, and I checked that the JSON parses with exactly the required keys.\n\n| Setting | Value |\n|---|---|\n| Live mid I based it on | 80291.5 (data fetched 14:44 UTC) |\n| Liquidation distance | 95 bp below entry (about 79529) |\n| Net return on margin if the take-profit hits | about **+14.2%**, after the haircut and the 2% win fee |\n| Confidence | 0.72 |\n| Market state | trending up |\n\n**Why BTC long (from Hyperliquid's API):**\n- BTC is up 67 bp over the last 6 hours.\n- It sits above its short averages on all three timeframes: +5 bp vs the 1-minute, +15 bp vs the 5-minute and +28 bp vs the 15-minute.\n- Recent trades were almost all buys.\n- BTC's price swings are smaller than ETH's and have been shrinking: 4.5–6.0 bp per minute, against 6.2–8.6 bp for ETH.\n- Funding is flat.\n\n**Why these settings (my judgement, not data):**\n- **Take-profit:** 18 bp is far above the +0.2% line and still keeps about 81% of the gain after the haircut.\n- **Leverage:** at 100x, liquidation is about 16 typical one-minute moves away and sits near the 24-hour low of 79489.\n- **No stop-loss:** normal noise can't close the trade early, before it has a chance to recover.\n- **Backtest caveat:** in a test over the last hour, a long reached +30 bp before a −60 bp drop from 34 of 60 starting points, with no losses. That test covers the trend that just ran, so it overstates the odds.\n\n**Main risks:**\n- The price is already about 21 bp above the last hour's volume-weighted average price, so a pullback is likely.\n- A drop of about 95 bp back to the 24-hour low would liquidate the whole $20.\n- If the take-profit hasn't filled before the Fed's rate decision (Oct 28, 2:00 PM ET / 18:00 UTC, [Federal Reserve calendar](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-october.htm)), the market could get more volatile.\n\n**Not covered:** I didn't look at liquidation-level maps or other exchanges' trading flow.\n\n**Not committed:** I wrote a `README.md` with the question, sources and limits, but the commit failed because this repository has no git name or email set up. I left it uncommitted rather than invent an identity. The report itself is meant to stay untracked.\n\nThere are also several dotfiles at the repository root that I didn't create, such as `.bashrc` and `.gitconfig`. I left them untouched.\n\nSources:\n- [Federal Reserve – October 2026 events](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-october.htm)\n- [fedratecalc – FOMC schedule October 2026](https://fedratecalc.com/fomc-meeting-schedule/october-2026/)\n- Hyperliquid public info API (https://api.hyperliquid.xyz/info)","treeHash":"a0b6ecacf82556b5c991393e172c8b1ba026c6e6","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":160889,"inputTokens":14,"model":"claude-opus-5-5","outputTokens":6263,"runtime":"claude","turns":7,"wallClockMs":73552}}],"verification":[{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"21656d358d48d3b0336ce17faafd1cd82c9e3bf075370028ed43917a1e7ca7eb","verifiedTreeHash":"a0b6ecacf82556b5c991393e172c8b1ba026c6e6","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+260efc41"}]}