{"assessments":[],"deployments":[],"fuzz":[],"identity":{"adapter":"0xde152afb7db5373f34876e1499fbd893a82dd336","chainId":1,"collection":"0x0000ec93127baa929e58e97dd0095a2bfb38ec1d","registry":"0x8004a169fb4a3325136eb29fa0ceb6d2e539a432"},"interpretation":"Records acceptance and evidence. Neither completion nor an AI assessment establishes correctness, safety, or independent review.","jobId":"a3bf6e52-4335-45f2-85a8-c17153e6bb52","kind":"skill:research-report","nodes":[{"acceptedSubmissionHash":"80c8486400f385e1c64c644b2a6cb3ce16c8fddfc2bcc9773c8a8e887a05d182","dependsOn":[],"execution":{"network":true,"profile":"none","requires":["network"],"skillHash":"3ddca93330036359dd721585e58e67820336a0398b7927b3c89369d6134f30f6","skillId":"research-report","tools":[]},"key":"research_report","kind":"code","role":"implement","skillHash":"3ddca93330036359dd721585e58e67820336a0398b7927b3c89369d6134f30f6","skillId":"research-report","state":"accepted"}],"objective":"You are a crypto perpetual futures trader. Produce one trade decision for a player in Paper Clash, a game where players win map tiles with leveraged trades on PaperTrade. The player has chosen to let you make every trading decision. The goal: take the tile K11 (Meadow). That needs the trade to close with a net return on margin above +3.7%. If it closes below that the player keeps the PnL but not the tile, so aim to clear the line, and make the player as much as you reasonably can.\n\n## Fixed constraints\n- Market: \"BTC\" or \"ETH\" perpetual (BTC, ETH). Pick the one with the better setup right now.\n- Direction: exactly one of \"long\" or \"short\".\n- Margin: $27 (the player chose it; you don't).\n- Leverage: an integer from 38 to 1000 inclusive (the tile's minimum, and PaperTrade's $1,000-$10M position size).\n- Take-profit: the price move in your favor, in basis points of price from the actual entry (1 bp = 0.01%), not return on margin. It must clear the line:\n        38x → bust 258.2 bp, take-profit ≥ 13.2 bp\n       519x → bust 14.3 bp, take-profit ≥ 2 bp\n      1000x → bust 5 bp, take-profit ≥ 1.4 bp\n- Stop-loss: a price move against the position in bp, smaller than the bust distance, or null to hold to liquidation (liquidation is then the stop).\n- No time limit: the trade stays open until the take-profit, the stop-loss (or liquidation) or the player closes it, however long that takes. There is no funding, so holding costs nothing.\n- The trade opens a few minutes after you answer (it is queued behind your report), so base the exits on moves from the actual entry, not on your quoted mid.\n\n## Papertrade execution\nEntry and exit fill at the Hyperliquid BBO mid ((best bid + best ask) / 2): no spread, slippage, funding or fee on notional.\nLiquidation: the position is liquidated when the mid moves against it by about 10000 / leverage − 5 bp, and the whole margin is lost.\nWinning closes are haircut (losses are not): a 0.2 bp deadband comes off the move, the gain is scaled by 0.90 / (1 + 1/(move × 15000) + 100000/(1e6 × move × 814.598)) (move as a fraction after the deadband; BTC parameters, ETH is similar), then a 2% win fee. The keep is ~49% at 3 bp, ~61% at 5 bp, ~72% at 10 bp, ~80% at 20 bp, ~85% at 50 bp: tiny take-profits are heavily taxed.\n\n## How to decide\nThe decision is yours. Pull the market data below, and look up anything else that helps (news, scheduled macro events, liquidation levels, other exchanges' flow). Be decisive: always return a trade. Express doubt through confidence, leverage and the exits, not by refusing. Higher leverage multiplies gains but shrinks the survivable adverse move; a stop-loss saves part of the margin but can stop out a trade that would have recovered.\n\n## Market data (Hyperliquid public API, no auth)\nPOST https://api.hyperliquid.xyz/info with Content-Type: application/json. Times are Unix ms. For each of BTC and ETH:\n1. Candles: {\"type\":\"candleSnapshot\",\"req\":{\"coin\":\"BTC\",\"interval\":\"1m\",\"startTime\":<now-60min>,\"endTime\":<now>}}, and 5m over 6 h, 15m over 24 h. Fields: t, T, o/h/l/c (strings), v, n. Oldest first.\n2. Context: {\"type\":\"metaAndAssetCtxs\"} → [meta, ctxs]; ctxs[index of the coin in meta.universe] has markPx, oraclePx, premium, funding (hourly), openInterest, dayNtlVlm, prevDayPx.\n3. Book: {\"type\":\"l2Book\",\"coin\":\"BTC\",\"nSigFigs\":5} → levels[0] bids, levels[1] asks ({px, sz, n}, best first). mid = (best bid + best ask) / 2.\nAlso useful: {\"type\":\"recentTrades\",\"coin\":\"BTC\"}, {\"type\":\"fundingHistory\",\"coin\":\"BTC\",\"startTime\":<ms>}.\n\nUseful metrics, in bp of price so they compare with the bust distance and exits: how often recent 1m windows moved the bust distance against a position before the take-profit in its favor; per-candle adverse excursion; realized volatility over 15/30/60 min and whether it is expanding; distance from VWAP and 1m/5m EMAs; momentum agreement across 1m/5m/15m; trade flow and book imbalance near the mid; funding and premium; open interest vs price; the 24 h range; scheduled events in the next hour.\n\n## Output\nReturn ONLY one JSON object, no fences or commentary. Write it to artifacts/report.md (output \"report\"), not just the final reply. Exactly these keys:\n{\n  \"market\": \"BTC\" | \"ETH\",\n  \"direction\": \"long\" | \"short\",\n  \"leverage\": <integer 38-1000>,\n  \"take_profit_bp\": <number, favorable price move in bp from entry>,\n  \"stop_loss_bp\": <number smaller than bust_distance_bp, or null to hold to liquidation>,\n  \"bust_distance_bp\": <number, 10000/leverage - 5>,\n  \"expected_net_return_on_margin_pct\": <number, if the take-profit hits>,\n  \"confidence\": <number 0.0-1.0>,\n  \"regime\": \"trending_up\" | \"trending_down\" | \"ranging\" | \"volatile_choppy\",\n  \"entry_mid\": <number, the live mid you based the trade on>,\n  \"data_time_utc\": \"<ISO 8601 time you fetched the data>\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"<2-4 plain sentences: the evidence for the market and direction, and why this leverage and these exits fit the volatility and the line to beat>\",\n  \"risks\": \"<1-2 sentences: what would most likely stop it out or liquidate it>\"\n}\nUse JSON numbers (and null for no stop-loss).","parentJobId":null,"planHash":"d6701a27abc4cd1f4bbfcbc2a55a84ffd16356e042d09228310feda1f0ca2117","previousHash":"0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000","projectId":"a3bf6e52-4335-45f2-85a8-c17153e6bb52","publication":{"commit":null,"deliveredAt":null,"repoUrl":null},"receiptIdentity":{"adapter":"0xde152afb7db5373f34876e1499fbd893a82dd336","chainId":1,"collection":"0x0000ec93127baa929e58e97dd0095a2bfb38ec1d","registry":"0x8004a169fb4a3325136eb29fa0ceb6d2e539a432"},"registry":"0xb6d0a187b050fa5bb0b87033a203f37becf4a775","research":[],"schema":"identitymd-work-v1","signals":[{"agentId":"53938","feedbackHash":"eed2c2066c2ca219b70672fbe747966b3c6bc261e6dc0e2a0ccdba0fac469222","nodeKey":"research_report","submissionHash":"80c8486400f385e1c64c644b2a6cb3ce16c8fddfc2bcc9773c8a8e887a05d182","tag1":"verification:structural","tag2":"acceptance-v2","value":1}],"site":null,"snapshotHash":"bec60e7b36585f969fc531ad62975e91199ef48ef337bf536d899e464c547451","state":"completed","submissions":[{"artifacts":[{"bytes":1759,"hash":"02f6a547756f11c89395c46feb991728aaef878f33e870a5f7e23985808e705a","mediaType":"text/markdown","name":"report","path":"artifacts/report.md"}],"attempt":1,"bundleHash":"4275357bcf9cad4eabcf45f0d11952f6fb6e4e525dcd0d3a625396a8b1047cc9","device":"01695e9524859621","findings":[],"hash":"80c8486400f385e1c64c644b2a6cb3ce16c8fddfc2bcc9773c8a8e887a05d182","nodeId":"a97edae4-c649-457b-9bd1-523d1fbbd1a8","outcome":"completed","summary":"The trade is **ETH long at 75x**, with an 18 bp take-profit and a 75 bp stop-loss. If the take-profit hits, the player nets about **+10.6% on margin** after the win haircut, comfortably above the +3.7% needed for K11. The decision is saved as a single JSON object in `artifacts/report.md`, and the JSON parses.\n\n| Field | Value |\n|---|---|\n| Entry mid | 2355.25 (data fetched 2026-10-27 21:49 UTC) |\n| Liquidation distance | 128.33 bp |\n| Take-profit | 18 bp; the minimum allowed at 75x is about 13 bp |\n| Stop-loss | 75 bp, just under where the price was before the jump (about 2337.6) |\n| Confidence | 0.55 |\n| Market regime | trending up |\n\n**What the data shows** (Hyperliquid's public API):\n- At 21:31 UTC, BTC and ETH both jumped sharply on heavy volume. ETH went from about 2342 to 2364.1, which is also its 24-hour high. It has since given back only about 40% of that.\n- ETH is above its 60-minute volume-weighted average price and above its 1m, 5m and 15m moving averages. Buyers hold 64% of the order book near the price, and 93% of the latest trades were buys.\n- BTC has given back more of its jump, and its order book leans to sellers (only 22% on the bid side). That is why I picked ETH.\n- ETH typically moves 6–9 bp a minute. One minute in ten covers a range of about 14 bp or more, so an 18 bp take-profit only needs a partial return toward the spike high.\n\n**What is less certain:**\n- **Unknown cause:** a web search found no news explaining the 21:31 jump. If it fully reverses back below about 2340, the stop triggers and the player loses about 56% of the margin.\n- **Biased replay:** I checked how often these exits would have been hit over the last 3 hours of candles, and that favoured longs. But that window was trending up, so the check is biased.\n- **Fed meeting (unverified):** from memory, the Fed's rate decision is on Oct 28 at 18:00 UTC. I did not confirm this, and the trade could still be open then.\n- **Fast wicks:** a sudden drop could reach liquidation before the stop fills.\n\nI also added a `README.md` describing the question, the data source and these limits; nothing has been committed. The repository already had several untracked dotfiles that I didn't create, and I left them alone.\n\nSources:\n- Hyperliquid info API: https://api.hyperliquid.xyz/info\n- News search (nothing relevant found): [CoinDesk](https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-price-surges-12-setting-weekly-high), [Seeking Alpha](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3936766-why-did-bitcoins-price-jump-up-today-short-liquidations-ramp-up)","treeHash":"6ec1413c835ea685f8dfa6345711f7526f58c0a7","usage":{"cachedInputTokens":188023,"inputTokens":16,"model":"claude-opus-5-5","outputTokens":6585,"runtime":"claude","turns":8,"wallClockMs":82067}}],"verification":[{"checks":[],"detail":"paths and tree verified; no suite was run for this kind of work","evaluation":"structural","profile":"none","status":"accepted","submissionHash":"80c8486400f385e1c64c644b2a6cb3ce16c8fddfc2bcc9773c8a8e887a05d182","verifiedTreeHash":"6ec1413c835ea685f8dfa6345711f7526f58c0a7","verifierVersion":"0.1.0+260efc41"}]}