{"p_yes":0.01,"rationale":"Etherscan shows ~231 ETH EIP-1559 burn in the latest 24h and ~1,866 ETH over 30d (~62 ETH/day), versus a 10,000 ETH threshold. At ~50% utilization, YES needs roughly a >40x immediate sustained fee spike (about 23 gwei average base fee at full 60M-gas blocks). Such congestion is possible in a panic/mint tail event, but no catalyst or recent trend supports it; bounded output floor is 0.01.","sources":["https://etherscan.io/charts","https://etherscan.io/chart/dailyethburnt","https://blog.ethereum.org/2025/11/06/fusaka-mainnet-announcement","https://insidecrypto.net/onchain/ethereum/supply/"]}