# Judging-mandate acceptance report: Steel Dynamics Q3 2026 EPS vs. guidance top ($5.38)

Verdict: ACCEPT

Prepared 2026-10-19, before the SQF deadline (2026-10-19T20:00:00Z). This report does not resolve the question. It only decides whether the question can be judged fairly once the deadline has passed.

## 1. Facts (verified from sources)

| # | Fact | Source |
|---|------|--------|
| F1 | On 17 September 2026, Steel Dynamics "provided third quarter 2026 earnings guidance in the range of $5.34 to $5.38 per diluted share." So $5.38 really is the top of the company's own guidance, and the question's premise is correct. | SEC EDGAR, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001022671/000110465926108777/tm2625690d1_ex99-1.htm ; syndicated copies: https://finviz.com/news/393373/steel-dynamics-provides-third-quarter-2026-earnings-guidance , https://www.miningstockeducation.com/2026/09/steel-dynamics-provides-third-quarter-2026-earnings-guidance/ |
| F2 | The guidance release does not mention adjusted, non-GAAP or excluded items. It gives a single per-diluted-share range. | Same 8-K exhibit (F1) |
| F3 | The company "intends to release third quarter 2026 financial results after market close on Monday, October 19, 2026". The conference call is at 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday, 20 October 2026. | https://finviz.com/news/400568/steel-dynamics-announces-third-quarter-2026-earnings-conference-call-and-webcast ; https://www.miningstockeducation.com/2026/10/steel-dynamics-announces-third-quarter-2026-earnings-conference-call-and-webcast/ |
| F4 | A corrected version of the call announcement was issued. The original release mistakenly referred to the "Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Call" in its dial-in text. The date and time of the results release were not affected. | https://www.trivano.com/persbericht/-c-o-r-r-e-c-t-i-o-n-steel-dynamics-inc--766833.html |
| F5 | The SQF deadline, 2026-10-19T20:00:00Z, is 4:00 p.m. EDT, which is the US market close. deadline-unix 1792440000 is the same instant. The release is scheduled after the close, so the outcome is unknown at the deadline and becomes knowable shortly after it. | Arithmetic check of the SQF meta fields against F3 |

Context only, not used for the verdict: one press report says consensus was about $5.47 and the shares fell about 4.7% after the guidance (https://site.financialmodelingprep.com/market-news/steel-dynamics-stld-q3-2026-earnings-forecast , https://tradersunion.com/news/stocks/show/3390538-steel-dynamics-slides-4-74percent-to/). I did not check these figures against a primary source.

## 2. Assessment against the acceptance tests

**Can independent researchers judge it fairly after the deadline? Yes.**
- The quantity is a single, clearly defined figure: reported (GAAP) net income per diluted share for Q3 2026. The rule settles the reported-vs-adjusted choice explicitly by using the reported figure.
- The threshold is exact and has no gap. Above $5.38 resolves YES. $5.38 or less resolves NO. EPS is reported to the cent, so there is no rounding gap.
- The premise is true (F1). $5.38 is the top of the company's published range.
- Timing works (F3, F5). The deadline is before publication, and the INVALID window up to 21 October allows for a short delay.

**Is it only a single-source attestation? No.** The figure is the company's own disclosure, and the company is the party whose results are the event. That figure appears independently in several places:
- the Form 8-K furnished to SEC EDGAR;
- the newswire distribution of the press release;
- the investor-relations site;
- financial news coverage, such as Reuters, AP and trade press;
- the conference call on 20 October;
- later, the Q3 Form 10-Q.

Researchers can use different sources and methods and still check that they reach the same number. No single proprietary data feed or named publisher has to be trusted.

## 3. Inferences and residual risks (judgement, not fact)

- **I1. Date wording.** The rule describes the release as "published after the US market close on 19 October 2026". If the release slips to 20 October, a strict reader could argue that no qualifying release exists. The INVALID clause ("only if no release is published by 21 October 2026") strongly suggests that a release published up to 21 October still counts. I judge this a drafting imperfection, not a blocker. A suggested tightening is given in §5.
- **I2. Basis of the guidance.** The guidance does not state whether it is on a GAAP or adjusted basis (F2). The rule nevertheless fixes the comparison to the reported figure. So the market resolves on a clear, well-defined metric, even if the company's own guidance basis is unstated.
- **I3. Later revisions.** If a restatement or a 10-Q figure differs from the release, the rule's wording points to the earnings release figure. Judges should use that.
- **I4. Dual figures.** If the release shows "net income attributable to Steel Dynamics per diluted share", that is the reported diluted EPS. Judges should not use basic EPS or adjusted EPS.

## 4. Unanswered questions

- U1. What the actual Q3 2026 diluted EPS is. It is unknown at the time of writing and is the subject of the mandate.
- U2. Whether the release will publish on schedule on 19 October 2026. This is expected (F3) but not yet observed.
- U3. Whether the release will contain an adjusted figure. If it does, the rule already handles it.

## 5. Optional clarifying edits (not required for acceptance)

The SQF is acceptable as written. If the requester wants to remove the ambiguity in I1, the §rule could read:

> YES if Steel Dynamics' third-quarter 2026 earnings release (scheduled for after the US market close on 19 October 2026; any release published by 23:59 ET on 21 October 2026 counts) reports net income attributable to Steel Dynamics per diluted share (GAAP, as reported) above $5.38; NO if it is $5.38 or less. Ignore adjusted/non-GAAP figures, later restatements and the Form 10-Q. INVALID only if no such release is published by 23:59 ET on 21 October 2026.

## Sources
- [SEC EDGAR – STLD 8-K Ex. 99.1, Q3 2026 guidance](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001022671/000110465926108777/tm2625690d1_ex99-1.htm)
- [Finviz – Steel Dynamics provides third quarter 2026 earnings guidance](https://finviz.com/news/393373/steel-dynamics-provides-third-quarter-2026-earnings-guidance)
- [Mining Stock Education – guidance release copy](https://www.miningstockeducation.com/2026/09/steel-dynamics-provides-third-quarter-2026-earnings-guidance/)
- [Finviz – Q3 2026 earnings conference call and webcast announcement](https://finviz.com/news/400568/steel-dynamics-announces-third-quarter-2026-earnings-conference-call-and-webcast)
- [Mining Stock Education – call announcement copy](https://www.miningstockeducation.com/2026/10/steel-dynamics-announces-third-quarter-2026-earnings-conference-call-and-webcast/)
- [Trivano – corrected call announcement](https://www.trivano.com/persbericht/-c-o-r-r-e-c-t-i-o-n-steel-dynamics-inc--766833.html)
- [Financial Modeling Prep – Q3 preview (context only)](https://site.financialmodelingprep.com/market-news/steel-dynamics-stld-q3-2026-earnings-forecast)
- [Traders Union – share reaction (context only)](https://tradersunion.com/news/stocks/show/3390538-steel-dynamics-slides-4-74percent-to/)