{ "approach": "Deepen CH with a post-gap cap on decayed toxEma. Hypothesis: a previous fee band bounds stale toxicity carryover after a quiet gap, letting current observed toxicity drive fees. Change no signal decays except the separately tested ELAPSED_CAP variants. Replace the inherited exponentiation loop with equivalent fixed operations for bounded elapsed <= 16 to meet the no-loops requirement. Select the largest paired tuning mean, freeze its source hash before holdout, and evaluate it once on fresh seeds. Holdout clears the promotion threshold.", "tried": [ { "variant": "halfband", "seeds": [ 10000, 10499 ], "n": 500, "mean_diff": 0.01711321676884131, "se": 0.005971851484355658, "code_sha256": "9781c46564db3abc7c47b4716f3440feb019c028371dad999940cbbef88030ca", "worst": [ { "seed": 10216, "diff": -0.49055049383002824 }, { "seed": 10204, "diff": -0.4064009644193902 }, { "seed": 10103, "diff": -0.38411575720579094 }, { "seed": 10249, "diff": -0.3488663936471994 }, { "seed": 10005, "diff": -0.3465068118058525 } ], "description": "elapsedRaw > 1: cap decayed toxEma at (prevBidFee + prevAskFee)/2; ELAPSED_CAP=8." }, { "variant": "protect", "seeds": [ 10000, 10499 ], "n": 500, "mean_diff": 0.0, "se": 0.0, "code_sha256": "71ca9ddd92cfeea6b64aed62593c38eb0843fd6a5d341d79df9f91a4455dd138", "worst": [ { "seed": 10000, "diff": 0.0 }, { "seed": 10001, "diff": 0.0 }, { "seed": 10002, "diff": 0.0 }, { "seed": 10003, "diff": 0.0 }, { "seed": 10004, "diff": 0.0 } ], "description": "elapsedRaw > 1: cap decayed toxEma at max(prevBidFee,prevAskFee), defining the protect fee as the larger previous fee; ELAPSED_CAP=8." }, { "variant": "halfband15", "seeds": [ 10000, 10499 ], "n": 500, "mean_diff": 0.0056787787323283965, "se": 0.002216010941611738, "code_sha256": "8dcbbd917de41d086da2ccde224a864a07eebbe3bee4ff4f1fdb07dedc6fe351", "worst": [ { "seed": 10468, "diff": -0.31330457924400434 }, { "seed": 10307, "diff": -0.30556650188759704 }, { "seed": 10420, "diff": -0.23225220099095623 }, { "seed": 10232, "diff": -0.1836913374982032 }, { "seed": 10086, "diff": -0.17786312399255166 } ], "description": "elapsedRaw > 1: cap decayed toxEma at 1.5 times the previous half-band; ELAPSED_CAP=8." }, { "variant": "gap2", "seeds": [ 10000, 10499 ], "n": 500, "mean_diff": 0.0058819696979817305, "se": 0.0039676297034122185, "code_sha256": "463363754bcd4805d31e498e9a03ffddb9fa48a73a148a528a4b1a85850320c3", "worst": [ { "seed": 10317, "diff": -0.5293385350034896 }, { "seed": 10005, "diff": -0.3145528709248424 }, { "seed": 10110, "diff": -0.29275988371432504 }, { "seed": 10200, "diff": -0.2629679678045136 }, { "seed": 10304, "diff": -0.2537542941980746 } ], "description": "elapsedRaw > 2: cap decayed toxEma at the previous half-band; ELAPSED_CAP=8." }, { "variant": "halfband_elapsed4", "seeds": [ 10000, 10499 ], "n": 500, "mean_diff": 0.013554407577121083, "se": 0.006620620676034431, "code_sha256": "2c1c299e4f7b8e624e998125dc0e3490a91dbb5de467877b7b3bb1367e493308", "worst": [ { "seed": 10265, "diff": -0.5651597728162869 }, { "seed": 10204, "diff": -0.43297418698170986 }, { "seed": 10356, "diff": -0.3972018639065027 }, { "seed": 10103, "diff": -0.38652483105209967 }, { "seed": 10236, "diff": -0.3571561080665333 } ], "description": "Same half-band cap after elapsedRaw > 1; ELAPSED_CAP=4." }, { "variant": "halfband_elapsed12", "seeds": [ 10000, 10499 ], "n": 500, "mean_diff": 0.016447729433503356, "se": 0.006252729651350902, "code_sha256": "888c2532a0a89d8a90b73b1625d94eb8bac009221e3403f1f4831860ef79c6fc", "worst": [ { "seed": 10216, "diff": -0.501288328911869 }, { "seed": 10265, "diff": -0.44865619204904306 }, { "seed": 10103, "diff": -0.4356197428140831 }, { "seed": 10204, "diff": -0.405819476580632 }, { "seed": 10495, "diff": -0.3474544691648589 } ], "description": "Same half-band cap after elapsedRaw > 1; ELAPSED_CAP=12." }, { "variant": "halfband_elapsed16", "seeds": [ 10000, 10499 ], "n": 500, "mean_diff": 0.015005027346159864, "se": 0.006325964157177531, "code_sha256": "c48542ea1edc74e6857daede23701f97e7dad592d9ef28806055238ebe088d5a", "worst": [ { "seed": 10216, "diff": -0.5014149460291719 }, { "seed": 10265, "diff": -0.44917607386435066 }, { "seed": 10103, "diff": -0.43378451242745086 }, { "seed": 10204, "diff": -0.4067651105007144 }, { "seed": 10014, "diff": -0.3888476689791105 } ], "description": "Same half-band cap after elapsedRaw > 1; ELAPSED_CAP=16." } ], "next": "Submit this candidate for merged replication; do not infer official leaderboard performance from local seeds.", "code": "// SPDX-License-Identifier: MIT\npragma solidity ^0.8.24;\n\nimport {AMMStrategyBase} from \"./AMMStrategyBase.sol\";\nimport {TradeInfo} from \"./IAMMStrategy.sol\";\n\ncontract Strategy is AMMStrategyBase {\n uint256 constant ELAPSED_CAP = 8;\n uint256 constant SIGNAL_THRESHOLD = WAD / 650;\n uint256 constant DIR_DECAY = 750000000000000000;\n uint256 constant ACT_DECAY = 530000000000000000;\n uint256 constant SIZE_DECAY = 530000000000000000;\n uint256 constant TOX_DECAY = 910000000000000000;\n uint256 constant SIGMA_DECAY = 690000000000000000;\n uint256 constant LAMBDA_DECAY = 990000000000000000;\n uint256 constant SIZE_BLEND_DECAY = 828000000000000000;\n uint256 constant TOX_BLEND_DECAY = 51000000000000000;\n uint256 constant ACT_BLEND_DECAY = 985000000000000000;\n uint256 constant PHAT_ALPHA = 270000000000000000;\n uint256 constant PHAT_ALPHA_RETAIL = 60000000000000000;\n uint256 constant DIR_IMPACT_MULT = 4;\n uint256 constant GATE_SIGMA_MULT = 7200000000000000000;\n uint256 constant MIN_GATE = 30000000000000000;\n uint256 constant TRADE_TOX_BOOST = 3500 * BPS;\n uint256 constant STALE_ATTRACT_FRAC = 1050000000000000000;\n uint256 constant RET_CAP = WAD / 35;\n uint256 constant TOX_CAP = WAD / 5;\n uint256 constant TRADE_RATIO_CAP = WAD / 5;\n uint256 constant LAMBDA_CAP = 1820000000000000000;\n uint256 constant STEP_COUNT_CAP = 64;\n uint256 constant BASE_FEE = 4 * BPS;\n uint256 constant SIGMA_COEF = 200000000000000000;\n uint256 constant LAMBDA_COEF = 12 * BPS;\n uint256 constant FLOW_SIZE_COEF = 4842 * BPS;\n uint256 constant TOX_COEF = 300 * BPS;\n uint256 constant TOX_QUAD_COEF = 15000 * BPS;\n uint256 constant ACT_COEF = 91843 * BPS;\n uint256 constant DIR_COEF = 20 * BPS;\n uint256 constant DIR_TOX_COEF = 100 * BPS;\n uint256 constant STALE_DIR_COEF = 6850 * BPS;\n uint256 constant SIGMA_TOX_COEF = 500 * BPS;\n uint256 constant TAIL_KNEE = 600 * BPS;\n uint256 constant TAIL_SLOPE_PROTECT = 930000000000000000;\n uint256 constant TAIL_SLOPE_ATTRACT = 850000000000000000;\n\n function afterInitialize(uint256 initialX, uint256 initialY) external override returns (uint256, uint256) {\n slots[0] = BASE_FEE; slots[1] = BASE_FEE; slots[2] = 0; slots[3] = WAD; slots[4] = 0;\n slots[5] = initialX > 0 ? wdiv(initialY, initialX) : 100 * WAD;\n slots[6] = 950000000000000; slots[7] = 800000000000000000; slots[8] = 2000000000000000;\n slots[9] = 0; slots[10] = 0;\n return (BASE_FEE, BASE_FEE);\n }\n\n function afterSwap(TradeInfo calldata trade) external override returns (uint256, uint256) {\n uint256 prevBidFee = slots[0]; uint256 prevAskFee = slots[1]; uint256 lastTs = slots[2];\n uint256 dirState = slots[3]; uint256 actEma = slots[4]; uint256 pHat = slots[5];\n uint256 sigmaHat = slots[6]; uint256 lambdaHat = slots[7]; uint256 sizeHat = slots[8];\n uint256 toxEma = slots[9]; uint256 stepTradeCount = slots[10];\n\n bool isNewStep = trade.timestamp > lastTs;\n if (isNewStep) {\n uint256 elapsedRaw = trade.timestamp - lastTs;\n uint256 elapsed = elapsedRaw > ELAPSED_CAP ? ELAPSED_CAP : elapsedRaw;\n dirState = _decayCentered(dirState, DIR_DECAY, elapsed);\n actEma = wmul(actEma, _powWad(ACT_DECAY, elapsed));\n sizeHat = wmul(sizeHat, _powWad(SIZE_DECAY, elapsed));\n toxEma = wmul(toxEma, _powWad(TOX_DECAY, elapsed));\n if (elapsedRaw > 1) { uint256 hb = (prevBidFee + prevAskFee) / 2; if (toxEma > hb) toxEma = hb; }\n if (stepTradeCount > 0 && elapsedRaw > 0) {\n uint256 lambdaInst = (stepTradeCount * WAD) / elapsedRaw;\n if (lambdaInst > LAMBDA_CAP) lambdaInst = LAMBDA_CAP;\n lambdaHat = wmul(lambdaHat, LAMBDA_DECAY) + wmul(lambdaInst, WAD - LAMBDA_DECAY);\n }\n stepTradeCount = 0;\n }\n\n bool firstInStep = stepTradeCount == 0;\n uint256 spot = trade.reserveX > 0 ? wdiv(trade.reserveY, trade.reserveX) : pHat;\n if (pHat == 0) pHat = spot;\n\n uint256 feeUsed = trade.isBuy ? prevBidFee : prevAskFee;\n uint256 gamma = feeUsed < WAD ? WAD - feeUsed : 0;\n uint256 pImplied;\n if (gamma == 0) { pImplied = spot; }\n else { pImplied = trade.isBuy ? wmul(spot, gamma) : wdiv(spot, gamma); }\n\n {\n uint256 ret = pHat > 0 ? wdiv(absDiff(pImplied, pHat), pHat) : 0;\n uint256 alpha = firstInStep ? PHAT_ALPHA : PHAT_ALPHA_RETAIL;\n uint256 adaptiveGate = wmul(sigmaHat, GATE_SIGMA_MULT);\n if (adaptiveGate < MIN_GATE) adaptiveGate = MIN_GATE;\n if (ret <= adaptiveGate) { pHat = wmul(pHat, WAD - alpha) + wmul(pImplied, alpha); }\n if (firstInStep) {\n if (ret > RET_CAP) ret = RET_CAP;\n sigmaHat = wmul(sigmaHat, SIGMA_DECAY) + wmul(ret, WAD - SIGMA_DECAY);\n }\n }\n\n uint256 tradeRatio = trade.reserveY > 0 ? wdiv(trade.amountY, trade.reserveY) : 0;\n if (tradeRatio > TRADE_RATIO_CAP) tradeRatio = TRADE_RATIO_CAP;\n\n if (tradeRatio > SIGNAL_THRESHOLD) {\n uint256 push = tradeRatio * DIR_IMPACT_MULT;\n if (push > WAD / 4) push = WAD / 4;\n if (trade.isBuy) {\n dirState = dirState + push;\n if (dirState > 2 * WAD) dirState = 2 * WAD;\n } else {\n dirState = dirState > push ? dirState - push : 0;\n }\n actEma = wmul(actEma, ACT_BLEND_DECAY) + wmul(tradeRatio, WAD - ACT_BLEND_DECAY);\n sizeHat = wmul(sizeHat, SIZE_BLEND_DECAY) + wmul(tradeRatio, WAD - SIZE_BLEND_DECAY);\n if (sizeHat > WAD) sizeHat = WAD;\n }\n\n uint256 tox = pHat > 0 ? wdiv(absDiff(spot, pHat), pHat) : 0;\n if (tox > TOX_CAP) tox = TOX_CAP;\n toxEma = wmul(toxEma, TOX_BLEND_DECAY) + wmul(tox, WAD - TOX_BLEND_DECAY);\n uint256 toxSignal = toxEma;\n\n stepTradeCount = stepTradeCount + 1;\n if (stepTradeCount > STEP_COUNT_CAP) stepTradeCount = STEP_COUNT_CAP;\n\n uint256 flowSize = wmul(lambdaHat, sizeHat);\n uint256 fBase = BASE_FEE + wmul(SIGMA_COEF, sigmaHat) + wmul(LAMBDA_COEF, lambdaHat) + wmul(FLOW_SIZE_COEF, flowSize);\n uint256 fMid = fBase + wmul(TOX_COEF, toxSignal) + wmul(TOX_QUAD_COEF, wmul(toxSignal, toxSignal)) + wmul(ACT_COEF, actEma);\n fMid = fMid + wmul(SIGMA_TOX_COEF, wmul(sigmaHat, toxSignal));\n\n uint256 dirDev; bool sellPressure;\n if (dirState >= WAD) { dirDev = dirState - WAD; sellPressure = true; }\n else { dirDev = WAD - dirState; sellPressure = false; }\n\n uint256 skew = wmul(DIR_COEF, dirDev) + wmul(DIR_TOX_COEF, wmul(dirDev, toxSignal));\n uint256 bidFee; uint256 askFee;\n if (sellPressure) {\n bidFee = fMid + skew;\n askFee = fMid > skew ? fMid - skew : 0;\n } else {\n askFee = fMid + skew;\n bidFee = fMid > skew ? fMid - skew : 0;\n }\n\n {\n uint256 staleShift = wmul(STALE_DIR_COEF, toxSignal);\n uint256 attractShift = wmul(staleShift, STALE_ATTRACT_FRAC);\n if (spot >= pHat) {\n bidFee = bidFee + staleShift;\n askFee = askFee > attractShift ? askFee - attractShift : 0;\n } else {\n askFee = askFee + staleShift;\n bidFee = bidFee > attractShift ? bidFee - attractShift : 0;\n }\n }\n\n {\n bool tradeAligned = (trade.isBuy && spot >= pHat) || (!trade.isBuy && spot < pHat);\n if (tradeAligned) {\n uint256 tradeBoost = wmul(TRADE_TOX_BOOST, tradeRatio);\n if (trade.isBuy) { bidFee = bidFee + tradeBoost; }\n else { askFee = askFee + tradeBoost; }\n }\n }\n\n if (sellPressure) {\n bidFee = clampFee(_compressTailWithSlope(bidFee, TAIL_SLOPE_PROTECT));\n askFee = clampFee(_compressTailWithSlope(askFee, TAIL_SLOPE_ATTRACT));\n } else {\n askFee = clampFee(_compressTailWithSlope(askFee, TAIL_SLOPE_PROTECT));\n bidFee = clampFee(_compressTailWithSlope(bidFee, TAIL_SLOPE_ATTRACT));\n }\n\n slots[0] = bidFee; slots[1] = askFee; slots[2] = trade.timestamp;\n slots[3] = dirState; slots[4] = actEma; slots[5] = pHat;\n slots[6] = sigmaHat; slots[7] = lambdaHat; slots[8] = sizeHat;\n slots[9] = toxEma; slots[10] = stepTradeCount;\n\n return (bidFee, askFee);\n }\n\n function _compressTailWithSlope(uint256 fee, uint256 slope) internal pure returns (uint256) {\n if (fee <= TAIL_KNEE) return fee;\n return TAIL_KNEE + wmul(fee - TAIL_KNEE, slope);\n }\n\n function _powWad(uint256 factor, uint256 exp) internal pure returns (uint256 result) {\n result = WAD;\n // elapsed is capped at 16 or less; five bits suffice.\n if (exp & 1 != 0) result = wmul(result, factor);\n factor = wmul(factor, factor);\n if (exp & 2 != 0) result = wmul(result, factor);\n factor = wmul(factor, factor);\n if (exp & 4 != 0) result = wmul(result, factor);\n factor = wmul(factor, factor);\n if (exp & 8 != 0) result = wmul(result, factor);\n factor = wmul(factor, factor);\n if (exp & 16 != 0) result = wmul(result, factor);\n }\n\n function _decayCentered(uint256 centered, uint256 decayFactor, uint256 elapsed) internal pure returns (uint256) {\n uint256 mul = _powWad(decayFactor, elapsed);\n if (centered >= WAD) { return WAD + wmul(centered - WAD, mul); }\n uint256 below = wmul(WAD - centered, mul);\n return below < WAD ? WAD - below : 0;\n }\n\n function getName() external pure override returns (string memory) { return \"no_cubic\"; }\n}\n", "code_sha256": "bac270759b77568f690e0f5d28e3a886f4494222efe72214d3a21eddcebcf2ec", "delta": "--- CH.sol\n+++ Strategy.sol\n@@ -67,2 +67,3 @@\n toxEma = wmul(toxEma, _powWad(TOX_DECAY, elapsed));\n+ if (elapsedRaw > 1) { uint256 hb = (prevBidFee + prevAskFee) / 2; if (toxEma > hb) toxEma = hb; }\n if (stepTradeCount > 0 && elapsedRaw > 0) {\n@@ -185,7 +186,12 @@\n result = WAD;\n- while (exp > 0) {\n- if (exp & 1 == 1) result = wmul(result, factor);\n- factor = wmul(factor, factor);\n- exp >>= 1;\n- }\n+ // elapsed is capped at 16 or less; five bits suffice.\n+ if (exp & 1 != 0) result = wmul(result, factor);\n+ factor = wmul(factor, factor);\n+ if (exp & 2 != 0) result = wmul(result, factor);\n+ factor = wmul(factor, factor);\n+ if (exp & 4 != 0) result = wmul(result, factor);\n+ factor = wmul(factor, factor);\n+ if (exp & 8 != 0) result = wmul(result, factor);\n+ factor = wmul(factor, factor);\n+ if (exp & 16 != 0) result = wmul(result, factor);\n }\n", "score": { "seed_start": 0, "n": 1000, "mean_edge": 525.5508794406641, "se": 2.7893552697201334 }, "paired": { "reference": "CH 6dd68f77", "seed_start": 600000, "n": 2000, "mean_diff": 0.02539990175997937, "se": 0.003663599553393786, "worst": [ { "seed": 601125, "diff": -0.9857669360943646, "candidate_edge": 625.8386962263226, "reference_edge": 626.8244631624169 }, { "seed": 601628, "diff": -0.5248756672638137, "candidate_edge": 578.7803426889575, "reference_edge": 579.3052183562213 }, { "seed": 601870, "diff": -0.49610798761864316, "candidate_edge": 641.0292953346003, "reference_edge": 641.525403322219 }, { "seed": 601757, "diff": -0.49529003812040173, "candidate_edge": 532.6385945719885, "reference_edge": 533.1338846101089 }, { "seed": 601730, "diff": -0.4813687547310792, "candidate_edge": 518.4583148610495, "reference_edge": 518.9396836157806 } ] }, "paired_starter": { "reference": "Pinned official StarterStrategy: fixed 50 bps", "reference_code_sha256": "8f2cea337f6736105f58c6758da6c3ebf002951d34492bcd5b7101bef2d1e7f3", "seed_start": 600000, "n": 2000, "mean_diff": 155.82488221694044, "se": 0.9092283763099809, "worst": [ { "seed": 600945, "diff": 76.91666869026409, "candidate_edge": 327.3542413968084, "reference_edge": 250.4375727065443 }, { "seed": 601402, "diff": 78.68772377648389, "candidate_edge": 342.1125494511739, "reference_edge": 263.42482567469 }, { "seed": 600215, "diff": 79.36361453112914, "candidate_edge": 344.41934009096093, "reference_edge": 265.0557255598318 }, { "seed": 601394, "diff": 80.27814482077846, "candidate_edge": 325.569708617053, "reference_edge": 245.29156379627452 }, { "seed": 600250, "diff": 80.43386766903222, "candidate_edge": 326.90546305008985, "reference_edge": 246.47159538105763 } ] }, "seconds_per_simulation": 0.441535798089928, "validate_ok": true, "blocked": null, "citations": [ { "url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/ChengHua926/amm-challenge/d34a5199c59a4c44d5336a25f1436b4ae1f21104/contracts/src/Strategy.sol", "supports": "CH reference source and unchanged baseline parameters." }, { "url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/benedictbrady/amm-challenge/6b6921f8d463314aa7c96234e1be25a25245f704/amm_competition/competition/match.py", "supports": "Pinned simulator implementation used for local measurements." }, { "url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/benedictbrady/amm-challenge/6b6921f8d463314aa7c96234e1be25a25245f704/amm_competition/competition/config.py", "supports": "Pinned simulator implementation used for local measurements." }, { "url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/benedictbrady/amm-challenge/6b6921f8d463314aa7c96234e1be25a25245f704/amm_sim_rs/src/simulation/engine.rs", "supports": "Pinned simulator implementation used for local measurements." }, { "url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/benedictbrady/amm-challenge/6b6921f8d463314aa7c96234e1be25a25245f704/amm_sim_rs/src/evm/strategy.rs", "supports": "Pinned simulator implementation used for local measurements." }, { "url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/jiayaoqijia/amm-challenge-yq/main/README.md", "supports": "YQ public architecture notes: asymmetric stale-direction discount." }, { "url": "https://medium.com/@crypto_algebra/amm-fee-challenge-notes-from-our-run-on-optimization-arena-4e980dbbd699", "supports": "Public write-up background: first-trade arbitrage ordering. Quotation read via web retrieval; a direct HTTP quote check returned 403." }, { "url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/dipankar/amm-challenge/main/ANALYSIS.md", "supports": "Public methodology post-mortem: fair-price inference from observed trades; background only, no quoted performance used." }, { "url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/benedictbrady/amm-challenge/6b6921f8d463314aa7c96234e1be25a25245f704/contracts/src/StarterStrategy.sol", "supports": "Pinned simulator implementation used for local measurements." } ], "measurement": { "engine_commit": "6b6921f8d463314aa7c96234e1be25a25245f704", "reference_sha256": "6dd68f77a70900319460215374143dbd5d924198450a46d9f5f91f6b1e3d35c3", "opponent": "VanillaStrategy: fixed 30 bps, independently for CH and the candidate; CH and candidate do not compete with each other.", "configs": "10,000 steps. Per seed: numpy.default_rng(seed), uniform size 19..21, then arrival rate 0.6..1.0, then sigma 0.000882..0.001008. Other fields identical to MatchRunner._build_configs. Rust price seed=seed, retail seed=seed+1.", "statistic": "Arithmetic mean of per-seed submission edges; paired diff=candidate-CH; SE=sample SD(ddof=1)/sqrt(n). Worst entries are the five smallest signed holdout differences.", "tuning_seeds": "10000..10499; 500 paired simulations for each of seven variants. The item-specific >=500 tuning instruction was used; tuning comparisons are not 2,000-simulation promotion evidence.", "selection": { "variant": "halfband", "tuning_only": true, "tuning_code_sha256": "9781c46564db3abc7c47b4716f3440feb019c028371dad999940cbbef88030ca", "loop_removal": "Equivalent fixed five-bit exponentiation for elapsed <= 16; applied before freeze to satisfy no-loops requirement.", "sha256": "bac270759b77568f690e0f5d28e3a886f4494222efe72214d3a21eddcebcf2ec", "frozen_at_utc": "2026-11-07T05:04:35.704619+00:00", "selection_rule": "Largest mean paired gain versus CH among the seven prespecified tuning variants on seeds 10000..10499. Holdout not inspected during selection." }, "holdout": "600000..601999 in chunks of 25; candidate measured once after freeze; no retuning and no seeds 900000..909999 used.", "ch_score_check": { "seed_start": 0, "n": 1000, "measured_mean": 525.5258821780834, "brief_expected_mean": 525.525882178, "difference": 8.344613888766617e-11 }, "performance": "seconds_per_simulation is accumulated run_batch wall time for both 2,000-run holdout legs divided by 4,000; includes contention, excludes compilation/config creation.", "timing": { "candidate_holdout_seconds": 985.490860824706, "reference_holdout_seconds": 780.6523315350059, "candidate_score_seconds": 709.2952275327407, "starter_holdout_seconds": 615.3146903144661 }, "limitations": "Local simulation estimates only. No official submission or leaderboard claim. The starter comparison uses the pinned official fixed-50-bps StarterStrategy, independently against the same fixed-30-bps normalizer; it reuses the frozen candidate holdout edges and is not used for selection. The inherited exponentiation loop was unrolled without changing any of 500 paired tuning-seed edges; no loops or new storage remain." }, "checks": { "loop_removal_paired_verification": { "seed_start": 10000, "n": 500, "all_edges_bit_identical": true }, "validate_ok": true, "starter_validate_ok": true, "ch_validate_ok": true, "config_equivalence": "All MatchRunner._build_configs fields exactly match for seeds 0..9.", "cap_boundary_cases": 216, "final_candidate_boundary_cases": 54, "gas": "All boundary calls successfully execute with a 250000 gas limit; no numerical peak-gas estimate claimed. Rust uses the same 250000 call limit.", "storage": "Compiler storage policy passes; source uses slots 0..10 and boundary cases leave 11..31 zero.", "loops": "No loops. CH exponentiation loop replaced with fixed operations for the five possible exponent bits; no history loop." }, "scoreboard": { "best": { "code_sha256": "bac270759b77568f690e0f5d28e3a886f4494222efe72214d3a21eddcebcf2ec", "score_n": 1000, "mean_edge": 525.5508794406641 }, "previous_best": { "code_sha256": "6dd68f77a70900319460215374143dbd5d924198450a46d9f5f91f6b1e3d35c3", "score_n": 1000, "mean_edge": 525.5258821780834 }, "candidate": { "code_sha256": "bac270759b77568f690e0f5d28e3a886f4494222efe72214d3a21eddcebcf2ec", "score_n": 1000, "mean_edge": 525.5508794406641 }, "promotion": true, "promotion_rule": "Frozen fresh-holdout mean_diff > 2*SE.", "promotions_ranked": [ { "rank": 1, "variant": "halfband", "code_sha256": "bac270759b77568f690e0f5d28e3a886f4494222efe72214d3a21eddcebcf2ec", "n": 2000, "mean_diff": 0.02539990175997937, "se": 0.003663599553393786, "mean_diff_over_official_starter": 155.82488221694044, "se_over_official_starter": 0.9092283763099809 } ], "tuning_ranked": [ { "rank": 1, "variant": "halfband", "seeds": [ 10000, 10499 ], "n": 500, "mean_diff": 0.01711321676884131, "se": 0.005971851484355658, "code_sha256": "9781c46564db3abc7c47b4716f3440feb019c028371dad999940cbbef88030ca", "worst": [ { "seed": 10216, "diff": -0.49055049383002824 }, { "seed": 10204, "diff": -0.4064009644193902 }, { "seed": 10103, "diff": -0.38411575720579094 }, { "seed": 10249, "diff": -0.3488663936471994 }, { "seed": 10005, "diff": -0.3465068118058525 } ], "description": "elapsedRaw > 1: cap decayed toxEma at (prevBidFee + prevAskFee)/2; ELAPSED_CAP=8." }, { "rank": 2, "variant": "halfband_elapsed12", "seeds": [ 10000, 10499 ], "n": 500, "mean_diff": 0.016447729433503356, "se": 0.006252729651350902, "code_sha256": "888c2532a0a89d8a90b73b1625d94eb8bac009221e3403f1f4831860ef79c6fc", "worst": [ { "seed": 10216, "diff": -0.501288328911869 }, { "seed": 10265, "diff": -0.44865619204904306 }, { "seed": 10103, "diff": -0.4356197428140831 }, { "seed": 10204, "diff": -0.405819476580632 }, { "seed": 10495, "diff": -0.3474544691648589 } ], "description": "Same half-band cap after elapsedRaw > 1; ELAPSED_CAP=12." }, { "rank": 3, "variant": "halfband_elapsed16", "seeds": [ 10000, 10499 ], "n": 500, "mean_diff": 0.015005027346159864, "se": 0.006325964157177531, "code_sha256": "c48542ea1edc74e6857daede23701f97e7dad592d9ef28806055238ebe088d5a", "worst": [ { "seed": 10216, "diff": -0.5014149460291719 }, { "seed": 10265, "diff": -0.44917607386435066 }, { "seed": 10103, "diff": -0.43378451242745086 }, { "seed": 10204, "diff": -0.4067651105007144 }, { "seed": 10014, "diff": -0.3888476689791105 } ], "description": "Same half-band cap after elapsedRaw > 1; ELAPSED_CAP=16." }, { "rank": 4, "variant": "halfband_elapsed4", "seeds": [ 10000, 10499 ], "n": 500, "mean_diff": 0.013554407577121083, "se": 0.006620620676034431, "code_sha256": "2c1c299e4f7b8e624e998125dc0e3490a91dbb5de467877b7b3bb1367e493308", "worst": [ { "seed": 10265, "diff": -0.5651597728162869 }, { "seed": 10204, "diff": -0.43297418698170986 }, { "seed": 10356, "diff": -0.3972018639065027 }, { "seed": 10103, "diff": -0.38652483105209967 }, { "seed": 10236, "diff": -0.3571561080665333 } ], "description": "Same half-band cap after elapsedRaw > 1; ELAPSED_CAP=4." }, { "rank": 5, "variant": "gap2", "seeds": [ 10000, 10499 ], "n": 500, "mean_diff": 0.0058819696979817305, "se": 0.0039676297034122185, "code_sha256": "463363754bcd4805d31e498e9a03ffddb9fa48a73a148a528a4b1a85850320c3", "worst": [ { "seed": 10317, "diff": -0.5293385350034896 }, { "seed": 10005, "diff": -0.3145528709248424 }, { "seed": 10110, "diff": -0.29275988371432504 }, { "seed": 10200, "diff": -0.2629679678045136 }, { "seed": 10304, "diff": -0.2537542941980746 } ], "description": "elapsedRaw > 2: cap decayed toxEma at the previous half-band; ELAPSED_CAP=8." }, { "rank": 6, "variant": "halfband15", "seeds": [ 10000, 10499 ], "n": 500, "mean_diff": 0.0056787787323283965, "se": 0.002216010941611738, "code_sha256": "8dcbbd917de41d086da2ccde224a864a07eebbe3bee4ff4f1fdb07dedc6fe351", "worst": [ { "seed": 10468, "diff": -0.31330457924400434 }, { "seed": 10307, "diff": -0.30556650188759704 }, { "seed": 10420, "diff": -0.23225220099095623 }, { "seed": 10232, "diff": -0.1836913374982032 }, { "seed": 10086, "diff": -0.17786312399255166 } ], "description": "elapsedRaw > 1: cap decayed toxEma at 1.5 times the previous half-band; ELAPSED_CAP=8." }, { "rank": 7, "variant": "protect", "seeds": [ 10000, 10499 ], "n": 500, "mean_diff": 0.0, "se": 0.0, "code_sha256": "71ca9ddd92cfeea6b64aed62593c38eb0843fd6a5d341d79df9f91a4455dd138", "worst": [ { "seed": 10000, "diff": 0.0 }, { "seed": 10001, "diff": 0.0 }, { "seed": 10002, "diff": 0.0 }, { "seed": 10003, "diff": 0.0 }, { "seed": 10004, "diff": 0.0 } ], "description": "elapsedRaw > 1: cap decayed toxEma at max(prevBidFee,prevAskFee), defining the protect fee as the larger previous fee; ELAPSED_CAP=8." } ] } }