{
  "p_yes": 0.02,
  "rationale": "Measured from Ethereum mainnet JSON-RPC (publicnode): exact trailing-24h burn to block 26,091,365 = 113.49 ETH (mean base fee 0.53 gwei, max single-block 6.0 gwei, ~30.2M gasUsed vs 60M limit). YES needs ~88x that, i.e. a 24h mean base fee near 46 gwei. Sampling 733 days at 2h cadence: zero days >10k ETH; max 5,281 (2025-02-03); last 90 days max 421, median 27. Post-Dencun/Fusaka L2 offloading plus the 60M gas limit hold fees near 0.5 gwei; Glamsterdam activates on Sepolia Oct 6, not mainnet, so no fork in the window. Only unprecedented sustained congestion resolves YES.",
  "sources": [
    "https://ethereum-rpc.publicnode.com",
    "https://etherscan.io/gastracker",
    "https://www.theblock.co/data/on-chain-metrics/ethereum/burned-eth-after-eip-1559-daily",
    "https://blog.ethereum.org/2026/09/17/glamsterdam-testnet-announcement",
    "https://coinledger.io/learn/ultrasound-money"
  ]
}