# Merge 04, batch r4-extend: d-s2-lowp-early-bids vs N

**These are screening seeds (430500–431999), not finalist seeds (900000–903999).** No promotion follows from them.

- Candidate: **d-s2-lowp-early-bids** (smaller new main bids at very low probability early in the run, spread 2). SHA-256 `c3f52bdfbcc3a516d10172da7496dc8e9ac5c3cf4bee6b083566673a03f5a6cd`
- Comparator: **N**. SHA-256 `bf0d179f3e47d28819f6fa7e0d25548c2ced43374c216d36460b00a26a26ffae`
- Sources: item results `item-s2-lowp-a` (sha256 8187ae26…b1c2), `item-s2-lowp-b` (530fcde5…bd), `item-s2-lowp-c` (2ac7f6ac…90bd), under `.imd/reads/artifacts/`. All three report the same candidate and comparator hashes, verified by script before they ran (their notes say). All statistics here are copied from them or pooled from their n, sum_d and sum_d2. I ran no simulations.

## Blocks

| key | seeds | n | complete | failures | mean_diff | se | retail_diff | arb_diff | python_version | flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| s2-lowp-a | 430500–430999 | 500 | True | 0 | 0.022847 | 0.016777 | -0.000458 | 0.023305 | 3.12.3 | none |
| s2-lowp-b | 431000–431499 | 500 | True | 0 | 0.002907 | 0.001784 | 0.000338 | 0.002570 | 3.12.3 | none |
| s2-lowp-c | 431500–431999 | 500 | True | 0 | 0.024747 | 0.039275 | 0.013166 | 0.011581 | 3.14.4 | none |

Checks: all three blocks are complete and have no failures. Their hashes match, and their check values agree to 4 decimals ([17.116, 20.0171, 2.3903, 241.4848]). Each block's per-seed rows sum to its reported sum_d and sum_d2. Block s2-lowp-c ran on Python 3.14.4 and the others on 3.12.3. The brief's flag rules do not cover this, so it is noted but not flagged. Its check values match the others.

## Pooled (n = 1500)

Mean = S/n, se = sqrt((Q − S²/n)/(n−1)/n). retail_diff and arb_diff are n-weighted.

| scope | n | mean_diff | se | retail_diff | arb_diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| overall | 1500 | 0.016834 | 0.014241 | 0.004348 | 0.012485 |
| spread 1 | 360 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
| spread 2 | 382 | 0.066102 | 0.055899 | 0.017075 | 0.049026 |
| spread 3 | 384 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
| spread 4 | 374 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |

How to read it: the candidate's seeds differ from N's only at spread 2. Spreads 1, 3 and 4 show exactly zero difference on every seed. The pooled gain is 0.0168 ± 0.0142 overall and 0.0661 ± 0.0559 at spread 2. That is 1.18 standard errors, below the 2-SE promotion bar, and it would need finalist seeds anyway. Most of the gain comes from arbitrage (0.0125), not retail (0.0043). The effect is tiny next to the score.

## JSON

```json
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```