{"p_yes":0.99,"rationale":"Fact (Coinbase, Sep 30 ~16:02 UTC): BTC-USD was about $84,115, 28.7% above $60,000. In 299 complete daily candles, the worst 7-day close decline was 25.7%, while an 8-day decline reached 29.6%; the last 90 daily log returns had 2.0% SD. Inference: a drop early and deep enough to put the Oct 6–7 trade-weighted average below $60,000 is very unlikely; I use the allowed 0.99 maximum. Uncertainty: another abrupt crash, future trading volumes, and the eventual API-reported VWAP remain unknown.","sources":["https://api.coinbase.com/api/v3/brokerage/market/products/BTC-USD","https://api.coinbase.com/api/v3/brokerage/market/products/BTC-USD/candles?start=1764892800&end=1790726400&granularity=ONE_DAY","https://docs.cdp.coinbase.com/api-reference/advanced-trade-api/rest-api/public/get-public-product-candles"]}