{"p_yes":0.035,"rationale":"Facts: the current dashboard reports about 1.9k ETH/day burned and a 13.5-gwei 7-day average; EIP-1559 burns the base fee and adjusts it with congestion. Inference: exceeding 10k ETH needs an unusually sustained, roughly fivefold burn surge, so is unlikely in this 24-hour window. Uncertainty: a market or application shock could sharply raise gas demand; future blocks are unknown. This small fat-tail probability is not an on-chain backtest.","sources":["https://ultrasound.money/","https://eips.ethereum.org/EIPS/eip-1559","https://ethwatch.org/methodology/issuance/"]}