{
  "notes": "Credit Taylor (gtmcknight), github.com/gtmcknight/amm-sim@4812a6382311624e1506aca131ca35c378f930d9 research/solved; retain QLX5 network-extension credits. Baseline source SHA256 e183e5bc3fb794b7067703b10a7da9920267aa5f4caa968e16ca101b02338f40.\n\nEpisode 3/3: finish this allocation with partial scientific findings; spawn nothing. All batches settled; no effects pending or refusals; eight items used of 24. r2-contract-sketch/particle was gate-cancelled (not_run), not a measured failure. No qualifying exact-posterior gain >=0.15 was established. No cancellation or timed wake needed. Request all eight accepted results for final citation. No Solidity, engine runs or submissions.\n\nBoth round-two workers explicitly did NOT establish the requested exact posterior. Their finite-approximation measurements cannot prove fair-price headroom irreducible. Correct episode 2's proposed irreducibility wording: the exact inferable fraction remains unresolved. A low approximate-filter gain is not an upper bound on all callback-only inference. Finish closes this allocation, not every scientific question. No new work in this last episode: another unvalidated approximation or contract sketch would not establish the missing exact likelihood and convergence.\n\nr2-exact-posterior/particle: A gain 0.02116503635869993, se 0.016351362072875866, n=128, report 10000..10127; upper two-SE 0.05386776050445166. First-look score.py stop (<0.08), advance=false, posterior_ge_015=fail. Fraction of supplied full-bank fair-price reference 0.014530299482457347 (1.4530%). B, true run parameters supplied: gain 0.021280721691998572, se 0.015620277501296699, same n/seeds; also stopped.\n\nr2-exact-posterior/grid: A gain 0.020141961941068764, se 0.015283153831748475, n=128, report 10000..10127; upper two-SE 0.05070826960456572. First-look score.py stop (<0.08), advance=false, posterior_ge_015=fail. Fraction of supplied full-bank fair-price reference 0.013827934628030298 (1.3828%). B, true run parameters supplied: gain 0.01776166042325178, se 0.014961759813164239, same n/seeds; also stopped.\n\nAll gains are paired own-pool edge differences over complete 10000-step replica runs. Particle used 2048 particles, choose 64000..64031. Grid used 8-bps spacing, eight parameter nodes, choose full runs 64000..64003 and a 2000-step refinement trace of 64000. From the embedded SAME-seed deltas, particle-minus-grid A = 0.0010230744176311646, se 0.012656452719674978, n=128. No material disagreement; shared approximation bias remains. Do not pool as independent studies or add gains.\n\nPassive filter gap, baseline -> posterior RMSE in bps (rounded). Particle: 128 seeds 10000..10127, 1,386,726 callbacks (486,154 arb; 900,572 retail): all 7.086835 -> 7.054083; arb 0.602288 -> 0.305614; retail 8.782899 -> 8.750518. Definition: 10000*RMS log-price error. Grid: ONLY 32 seeds 10000..10031, 348,145 callbacks (121,537 arb; 226,608 retail): all 7.111594 -> 7.088328; arb 0.503472 -> 0.130631; retail 8.807023 -> 8.785379. Definition: RMS of 10000*(estimated price/true price-1). Both improve arb error more than retail error. Different samples/error definitions prevent direct cross-method RMSE ranking.\n\nBoth report hook-off/passive parity, preserved exogenous draws, callback-only A inputs and truth-fed control gain 1.472416081754699 on the same 128 seeds. True price/labels enter diagnostics only; B also receives run parameters. These execution controls were not independently replayed here. Particle controls.passed=true is mechanical only, exact_posterior_established=false. Grid controls.passed=false, execution_controls_passed=true. Both approximate the binary64/WAD observation likelihood with Taylor's tell/lattice factor and continuous densities, omit some rounding evidence and separate integration of the 99%-reserve arb cap. Particle lacks a convergence/bias bound; grid has sparse fixed parameter quadrature and short refinement traces. Passive nominal-95% coverage: 97.8574% particle, 98.4969% grid, descriptive only. Exact likelihood and full-run numerical convergence remain missing. Seed SE does not measure approximation bias.\n\nr1-oracle-ceilings/run-volatility: true sigma squared replaces only QLX5 process variance at own callbacks. Gain 0.028547394601922793, se 0.012706129241827322, n=128, report 10000..10127; upper two-SE 0.05395965308557744; first-look stop, advance=false. Choose 64000..65023 n=1024: -0.0013192673583428682, se 0.003926038841478276. Closes this plug-in, not every volatility-aware policy.\n\nr1-oracle-ceilings/full-information: searched policy gain 23.838253663028897, se 0.27507639991996496, n=2048, report 10000..12047; lower two-SE 23.28810086318897, advance=true numerically. Choose 64000..64063. Uses true price, rival/pending-fill state and next already-generated same-timestamp order; optimizes that order's fee and otherwise falls back to QLX5. No next-timestamp draws, but queue knowledge is unavailable to a strategy. An achieved search LOWER bound, not a solved optimum or usable headroom. Worker-reported loose pathwise upper bound: gain 159185.8165286168, se 523.6695874018054, gap at most 159161.97827495376 on report paths. It does not locate the ceiling. No estimator follows under the requester's fair-price-only direction.\n\nEarlier round one, carried from episode 2; read originals for citation. fair-price: +1.4566139111071181, se 0.013306207949579568, n=2048, 10000..12047, advance=true; fixed-QLX5 truth sensitivity, not optimized upper bound. Result https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/c9ac833b4a6837bf0bd56fc2c4b931ef58d34dc98a000278ee4cec091fb216ee. next-trade: +55.742, se 0.240, n=2048; future retail side/size, foresight, unusable. Its different information exposure/search prevents interpreting its difference from full-information as a certified optimization gap. retail-law: +0.00057, se 0.00719, n=128, 10000..10127, early-stopped plug-in, advance=false. r1-routing-audit/engine-behaviours: terminal-step probe +0.003894, se 0.001105, n=128, early stop; relaxed terminal cap 0.0264 (se 0.0070; upper about 0.040). Terminal PnL unscored; dynamic dust policy unmeasured; no qualifying lead.\n\nValidation: all four input hashes match pins; embedded delta hashes, paired means/SEs and full-information checkpoint statistics recomputed successfully. Reproduction archive hashes checked in memory, plus included volatility/full-information file hashes. No embedded code or simulation executed. Result hashes, distinct from source_sha256:\n\nb03-particle: 3310b67bbc4b909c06e9623fe6e0fdc7d4d8fac21093abe25467f5400d61c5a9\n\nb03-grid: d9475f9a38366c72168c33423e2fbe84754883cb7312d9a47d22887c151511e7\n\nb01-run-volatility: 9f16f7d816edaff1d23de863f4f2149b1823b2842856cb8a0b41f986442226b0\n\nb01-full-information: 7aef6cf758ba6716bcfcbfa89a011cfc40a1bcadaae5fd3548e572ff96f1e50a\n\nPlane source flags exist for fair-price, volatility, retail-law and engine-behaviours without reasons; disclose without inventing why. Unflagged results do not certify methods. Preserve actual n/seed prefixes; distinguish truth sensitivities, searched lower bounds and approximate realisable gains. Repeated two-SE looks are the requested screen, not an anytime-valid confidence interval. Supplied standings gap 528.452-528.3333=0.1187 is context, not a paired gain or additive decomposition. No demonstrated callback-only route to the gap; exact inferability and a tight full-information ceiling remain unresolved, not zero or irreducible.",
  "spawn": [],
  "read": [
    "r1-oracle-ceilings/fair-price",
    "r1-oracle-ceilings/run-volatility",
    "r1-oracle-ceilings/retail-law",
    "r1-oracle-ceilings/next-trade",
    "r1-oracle-ceilings/full-information",
    "r1-routing-audit/engine-behaviours",
    "r2-exact-posterior/particle",
    "r2-exact-posterior/grid"
  ],
  "cancel": [],
  "finish": true
}