{
  "v": 1,
  "requestId": "f79d94e9-fcaa-48fb-97c5-7124d8e58091",
  "chainId": 1,
  "window": { "toBlock": 26050820, "fromBlock": 26043684, "toBlockHash": "0xb27a6c64f6d7c2d93c2565f8f1f50a98c9e15e35cde8edc8a7a32a88d6f66cec" },
  "answerType": "bool",
  "answer": false,
  "figure": "0",
  "definitions": {
    "dao": "PREDICT is a Spark idea on MetaDAO, pm-AMM prediction-market engine, ~$18.1K valuation, no team, supply 12,900,001 PREDICT, mint authority held by the DAO treasury.",
    "mint_details": "Mint 2,000,000 PREDICT (+15.5% supply dilution, 12,900,001 -> 14,900,001) to sales wallet 85mByUWV1jSrNyAiR6ntPjRyWhAp2SQD6h7pa8LwnYs, described as Spark-managed, for laddered Meteora limit-order sales above spot; USDC proceeds split 80% DAO treasury / 20% Spark.",
    "lp_details": "Launch LP (~582,000 PREDICT + 680 USDC) moves to Spark wallet 2KAGMaNTi3qo5zxZWNghNpMzhdmVeCFrWFeLDJUJrYcR for a new Meteora DAMM v2 one-sided pool at 2.5% fee, fees split 50/50 DAO/Spark. This LP-move and UpdateDao instruction set is byte-identical to ACCRUE-001 and LFOWN-002, both of which passed for the same Spark wallet (active since 2026-09-15), giving some track record for this specific piece.",
    "market_duration": "Proposal duration shortened 72h -> 24h for all future PREDICT decision markets, bundled into this single vote alongside the LP transfer and the mint.",
    "custody_and_enforcement": "The mint destination 85mByUWV1jSrNyAiR6ntPjRyWhAp2SQD6h7pa8LwnYs is a fresh, non-multisig EOA (no SOL balance, one transaction, token account created 2026-09-22 17:18 UTC, ~1 minute after the proposal was posted). The laddered-limit-order-only / no-market-sell / 80-20 split commitment is not enforced by any on-chain program constraint (no vesting contract, no program-owned escrow, no automated split); it is purely a trust-based promise by the Spark team.",
    "missing": "Could not verify who ultimately controls 85mByUWV1jSrNyAiR6ntPjRyWhAp2SQD6h7pa8LwnYs beyond it being a freshly created, non-multisig wallet; could not verify whether Spark has honored an equivalent unconstrained-mint-to-EOA commitment on any other MetaDAO idea (ACCRUE-001 and LFOWN-002 only replicate the LP-transfer/UpdateDao instructions, not a mint-to-EOA). Confidence is lowered accordingly.",
    "value": "Judged as PREDICT's fundamentals-driven market price 30 days after resolution vs. the counterfactual of failure, ignoring the thin, team-sponsored conditional-market pricing during the vote itself.",
    "weigh": "2.5% LP fee revenue is real but halved by the 50/50 Spark split. The 15.5%-supply mint to a fresh non-multisig EOA is an unenforced, trust-based overhang risk (no vesting/escrow), far larger than the precedented LP move (~4.5% of supply). Bundling this with a 72h->24h cut that weakens governance for a 6-voter DAO tilts net expected value negative.",
    "source": "metadao.fi/api/decode-proposal/4z6vt1RYz8aBrVqQovEecDszNvPFECEmmm2W1Br1Gnua (decoded instructions); metadao.fi/decisions/predict-001 and metadao.fi/companies/predict (DAO facts); solscan.io on both wallets; drive.proton.me/urls/5KB162JAT4#Sd6OSsvPaWc6 (proposal text)."
  },
  "recipe": { "kind": "panel", "source": "metadao.fi/api/decode-proposal/4z6vt1RYz8aBrVqQovEecDszNvPFECEmmm2W1Br1Gnua" },
  "notes": "Panel-evidence question, no on-chain scan applicable/needed over the pinned block window; answer computed from the fixed definitions in the brief plus the named sources. Read: (1) the decode-proposal endpoint's decoded instructions, confirming the LP-transfer/UpdateDao bytes match ACCRUE-001 and LFOWN-002 (both passed) and identifying the mint instruction's destination wallet and amount; (2) the brief's onchain/mint_details/proposal_text fields, which summarize metadao.fi/decisions/predict-001, metadao.fi/companies/predict, solscan.io lookups on the two named wallets, and the Spark proposal doc. Verdict: false (passing is more likely value-negative than value-positive for PREDICT holders). Primary driver: the 2,000,000 PREDICT (15.5% of supply) mint to a fresh, non-multisig, unenforced EOA is a large custody/overhang risk with a purely trust-based 'limit-orders-only, 80/20 split' promise and no track record of Spark honoring an equivalent mint-to-EOA commitment elsewhere; this outweighs the smaller, split (50/50) fee-revenue upside from the 2.5% LP pool (which does have passed precedent via ACCRUE-001/LFOWN-002) and outweighs any accretive-sale upside from the laddered sells. The bundled 72h->24h market-duration cut further reduces governance quality for a DAO this small (6 voters, ~$2.5K volume) and is evaluated as a mild additional negative, plus the vote itself already shows a near-even, unresolved split (49/51) despite team sponsorship, consistent with genuine uncertainty/skepticism among informed participants. Confidence: moderate-low given the unverifiable items noted under 'missing'; not enough to flip the sign but enough that this vote sits closer to 50/50 than a typical false. minSources satisfied: metadao.fi (decode-proposal + decisions/companies pages) and solscan.io (wallet lookups) plus drive.proton.me (proposal text) and justspark.fun (proposer identity, referenced in the brief)."
}