{
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "research_question": "For English Pokemon TCG Scarlet & Violet-151, is buying an ungraded near-mint Charizard ex 199/165 more predictable than opening packs to find it?",
  "market": "United States",
  "currency": "USD",
  "pricing_cutoff": "2026-09-25",
  "retrieved_at_utc": "2026-09-25T03:19:20Z",
  "target_card": {
    "name": "Charizard ex",
    "collector_number": "199/165",
    "set_name": "Scarlet & Violet-151",
    "set_code": "MEW",
    "language": "English",
    "rarity": "Special Illustration Rare",
    "printing": "Holofoil",
    "condition": "Ungraded, Near Mint",
    "official_checklist_url": "https://assets.pokemon.com/assets/cms2-en-uk/pdf/trading-card-game/checklist/mew_web_cardlist_en.pdf",
    "marketplace_product_id": "517045",
    "exclusions": ["Charizard ex 006/165", "Charizard ex 183/165", "Japanese cards", "reverse holos", "graded copies"]
  },
  "products": [
    {
      "id": "tcgplayer-502000",
      "name": "Scarlet & Violet-151 Booster Bundle",
      "version": "ordinary English Booster Bundle (not display or case)",
      "pack_count": 6,
      "launch_date": "2023-09-22",
      "official_product_url": "https://www.pokemon.com/us/pokemon-tcg/scarlet-violet-151",
      "pack_count_source_url": "https://www.pokemoncenter.com/product/699-85322/pokemon-tcg-scarlet-and-violet-151-booster-bundle",
      "launch_msrp": {"amount": 26.94, "status": "publisher list price found in archived 2024-11-25 Pokemon Center snapshot; not proven to be the launch-day price", "source_url": "https://cardboardalpha.com/pokemon/sealed/scarlet-violet-151-booster-bundle"}
    },
    {
      "id": "tcgplayer-503313",
      "name": "Scarlet & Violet-151 Elite Trainer Box",
      "version": "ordinary English Elite Trainer Box (not Pokemon Center exclusive)",
      "pack_count": 9,
      "launch_date": "2023-09-22",
      "official_product_url": "https://www.pokemon.com/us/pokemon-tcg/scarlet-violet-151",
      "pack_count_source_url": "https://www.grosnor.com/documents/products/POSV035ETK_p1.pdf",
      "launch_msrp": {"amount": 49.99, "status": "contemporaneous US retailer preorder/list price; official Pokemon launch MSRP page was not accessible", "source_url": "https://www.reddit.com/r/PKMNTCGDeals/comments/14b10i8/full_bestbuy_151_preorder_list/"}
    }
  ],
  "price_observations": [
    {"subject":"card-199/165","observed_or_sale_date":"2026-09-25","amount":355.00,"condition":"Near Mint, English, Holofoil, ungraded","availability":"listed available","source_type":"current asking price","shipping":"$0.99 stated","tax":"excluded/unknown","url":"https://www.tcgsearch.com/card/517045","note":"lowest named TCGplayer seller listing displayed"},
    {"subject":"card-199/165","observed_or_sale_date":"2026-09-25","amount":366.83,"condition":"Near Mint, English, Holofoil, ungraded","availability":"estimate, not an offer","source_type":"published marketplace market-price estimate","shipping":"not applicable/unknown","tax":"excluded","url":"https://www.tcgplayer.com/search/pokemon/product?productLineName=pokemon&q=Charizard+ex+199+151+Holofoil","note":"TCGplayer market price"},
    {"subject":"card-199/165","observed_or_sale_date":"2026-09-08","amount":370.00,"condition":"title states 2023 English MEW-EN, Near Mint, ungraded","availability":"completed","source_type":"completed eBay sale recorded by PriceCharting","shipping":"not shown; unknown","tax":"excluded/unknown","url":"https://www.pricecharting.com/game/pokemon-scarlet-%26-violet-151/charizard-ex-199","note":"individual completed-sale observation"},
    {"subject":"card-199/165","observed_or_sale_date":"2026-07-19","amount":392.99,"condition":"Near Mint, English, ungraded","availability":"completed","source_type":"completed TCGplayer sale recorded by PriceCharting","shipping":"not shown; unknown","tax":"excluded/unknown","url":"https://www.pricecharting.com/game/pokemon-scarlet-%26-violet-151/charizard-ex-199","note":"dated historical comparison, not current quote"},
    {"subject":"tcgplayer-502000","observed_or_sale_date":"2026-09-25","amount":179.99,"condition":"sealed, English","availability":"available in catalog","source_type":"current retailer asking price","shipping":"excluded","tax":"excluded","url":"https://www.packhunter.io/pokemon/151","note":"lowest listed retailer quote reported; authenticate seller/product before purchase"},
    {"subject":"tcgplayer-502000","observed_or_sale_date":"2026-09-22","amount":164.97,"condition":"Unopened, English","availability":"completed","source_type":"completed TCGplayer sale recorded by PriceCharting","shipping":"not shown; unknown","tax":"excluded/unknown","url":"https://www.pricecharting.com/game/pokemon-scarlet-%26-violet-151/booster-bundle","note":"ordinary six-pack bundle"},
    {"subject":"tcgplayer-502000","observed_or_sale_date":"2026-09-21","amount":164.97,"condition":"Unopened, English","availability":"completed","source_type":"completed TCGplayer sale recorded by PriceCharting","shipping":"not shown; unknown","tax":"excluded/unknown","url":"https://www.pricecharting.com/game/pokemon-scarlet-%26-violet-151/booster-bundle","note":"second dated sale"},
    {"subject":"tcgplayer-502000","observed_or_sale_date":"2026-09-25","amount":176.96,"condition":"sealed, English","availability":"estimate, not an offer","source_type":"published completed-sales estimate","shipping":"unknown","tax":"excluded","url":"https://www.pricecharting.com/game/pokemon-scarlet-%26-violet-151/booster-bundle","note":"PriceCharting guide"},
    {"subject":"tcgplayer-503313","observed_or_sale_date":"2026-09-25","amount":300.00,"condition":"sealed, English, ordinary ETB","availability":"available in catalog; listing should be verified because far below sales guide","source_type":"current retailer asking price","shipping":"excluded","tax":"excluded","url":"https://www.packhunter.io/pokemon/151","note":"lowest catalog ask; not treated as a sale or reliable delivered price"},
    {"subject":"tcgplayer-503313","observed_or_sale_date":"2026-09-06","amount":529.89,"condition":"Unopened, English, ordinary ETB","availability":"completed","source_type":"completed TCGplayer sale recorded by PriceCharting","shipping":"not shown; unknown","tax":"excluded/unknown","url":"https://www.pricecharting.com/game/pokemon-scarlet-%26-violet-151/elite-trainer-box","note":"ordinary nine-pack ETB"},
    {"subject":"tcgplayer-503313","observed_or_sale_date":"2026-09-04","amount":537.89,"condition":"Unopened, English, ordinary ETB","availability":"completed","source_type":"completed TCGplayer sale recorded by PriceCharting","shipping":"not shown; unknown","tax":"excluded/unknown","url":"https://www.pricecharting.com/game/pokemon-scarlet-%26-violet-151/elite-trainer-box","note":"second dated sale"},
    {"subject":"tcgplayer-503313","observed_or_sale_date":"2026-09-25","amount":532.75,"condition":"sealed ordinary ETB","availability":"estimate, not an offer","source_type":"published completed-sales estimate","shipping":"unknown","tax":"excluded","url":"https://www.pricecharting.com/game/pokemon-scarlet-%26-violet-151/elite-trainer-box","note":"PriceCharting guide"}
  ],
  "pull_rate_evidence": {
    "primary": {
      "title": "Pokemon TCG: Scarlet & Violet-151 Pull Rates",
      "author": "Peter Day",
      "url": "https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pok%EF%BF%BDmon-TCG-Scarlet-Violet%EF%BF%BD151-Pull-Rates/b237df74-fbb0-40d0-9e13-d69ee6e804d9/",
      "sample_size": "more than 1,500 packs (exact denominator not published)",
      "collector": "TCGplayer Authentication Center",
      "counted": "per-pack hits by rarity and observed individual-card populations",
      "sir_rate": 0.0311,
      "sir_95_percent_margin": 0.0080,
      "sir_cards_in_set": 7,
      "specific_card_model_rate": 0.0044,
      "specific_card_model_95_percent_margin": 0.0031,
      "critical_qualification": "The article explicitly says specific-card odds assume equal populations within the rarity. It does not publish a direct Charizard numerator or exact sample denominator."
    },
    "second_source_review": {
      "url": "https://pokepatch.com/2025/05/15/scarlet-violet-151-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-set/",
      "claimed_sample": "headline says 1,000+ packs",
      "assessment": "not usable as an independent replication: the page says its rates are gathered from community openings and TCGplayer data but supplies no auditable pack log, selection method, exact denominator, or Charizard count",
      "other_claimed_independent_source_url": "https://pullrates.gg/sets/151",
      "other_claim": "page says CardShopLive 1,728 packs and DigitalTQ 676 packs corroborate tier rates",
      "assessment_of_other": "secondary summary only; no underlying exact-card count was verified here"
    }
  },
  "formulas": {
    "at_least_one_in_n_independent_packs": "1 - (1 - p)^n",
    "expected_packs_to_first_geometric": "1 / p"
  },
  "scenarios": [
    {"id":"any-sir-empirical","label":"Any SIR (empirical tier estimate)","p":0.0311,"status":"supported tier estimate, not target-card probability","probability_at_least_one":{"10":0.2708958687,"50":0.7939617771,"100":0.9575482507},"expected_packs":32.15434084},
    {"id":"charizard-equal-share-hypothesis","label":"Charizard 199/165 if all seven SIRs are equally likely","p":0.0044,"status":"hypothetical/modelled; equal-population assumption unverified","probability_at_least_one":{"10":0.0431389438,"50":0.1978706697,"100":0.3565885375},"expected_packs":227.2727273}
  ],
  "spend_comparison": {
    "basis": "most recent completed-sale observation for each sealed product",
    "booster_bundle": {"product_price":164.97,"packs":6,"cost_per_pack":27.495,"hypothetical_expected_pack_spend_at_p_0_0044":6248.863636},
    "elite_trainer_box": {"product_price":529.89,"packs":9,"cost_per_pack":58.87666667,"hypothetical_expected_pack_spend_at_p_0_0044":13381.06061},
    "comparison_single_completed_sale":370.00,
    "exclusions":"Gross pack acquisition only; no value assigned to other cards, ETB promo/accessories, enjoyment, shipping, tax, or selling fees."
  },
  "references": [
    "https://assets.pokemon.com/assets/cms2-en-uk/pdf/trading-card-game/checklist/mew_web_cardlist_en.pdf",
    "https://www.pokemon.com/us/pokemon-tcg/scarlet-violet-151",
    "https://www.pokemoncenter.com/product/699-85322/pokemon-tcg-scarlet-and-violet-151-booster-bundle",
    "https://www.grosnor.com/documents/products/POSV035ETK_p1.pdf",
    "https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pok%EF%BF%BDmon-TCG-Scarlet-Violet%EF%BF%BD151-Pull-Rates/b237df74-fbb0-40d0-9e13-d69ee6e804d9/",
    "https://www.tcgsearch.com/card/517045",
    "https://www.pricecharting.com/game/pokemon-scarlet-%26-violet-151/charizard-ex-199",
    "https://www.pricecharting.com/game/pokemon-scarlet-%26-violet-151/booster-bundle",
    "https://www.pricecharting.com/game/pokemon-scarlet-%26-violet-151/elite-trainer-box",
    "https://pokepatch.com/2025/05/15/scarlet-violet-151-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-set/"
  ]
}