# BTC-USD perp trade decision (PaperTrade)

Data fetched 2026-10-14T05:46:53Z from the Hyperliquid public API (api.hyperliquid.xyz/info: candleSnapshot 1m/5m/15m, metaAndAssetCtxs, l2Book). recentTrades, fundingHistory, news and macro calendar were NOT checked.

## Decision
```json
{"direction":"long","leverage":500,"take_profit_bp":12,"take_profit_price":83591.70,"bust_distance_bp":15.2,"bust_price_estimate":83364.6,"expected_net_return_on_margin_pct":44.8,"confidence":0.5,"regime":"ranging","key_levels":{"support":83445,"resistance":83707},"entry_mid":83491.5,"data_time_utc":"2026-10-14T05:46:53Z","reasoning":"Mid 83491.5 (bid 83491 / ask 83492). The book within 10 bp of mid holds about 109 BTC of bids vs 29 BTC of asks, and mark sits 3.5 bp below oracle, which mildly favors a bounce; price is in the middle of a flat 5m/15m range. 500x gives a 15.2 bp bust distance, about 4x the 1m realized vol (about 3.5-4 bp) and about 2x the 5m vol (about 7 bp), while a 12 bp target clears the haircut (keep about 76%) for roughly 45% return on margin.","risks":"A 15 bp adverse move inside 30 minutes (about 2 sigma on 5m vol) or a bid wall pulling, since book imbalance is a weak, spoofable signal."}
```

## Evidence (facts, from fetched data)
- Mid 83491.5; spread 1 USD. 24h range 82927-84133; prevDayPx 83558.
- Realized vol (bp/min): 1m candles 4.2 (15m), 3.6 (30m), 3.4 (60m); 5m candles about 7.1 per 5m; 15m candles about 12-13 per 15m. Vol is mildly expanding on the 1m window.
- Mean 1m high-open / open-low excursion about 1.8 bp; 5m about 5-5.7 bp; 15m about 10 bp.
- Bids within 10 bp: 109.4 BTC; asks: 28.6 BTC. Funding 0.0000080/h (about flat). Premium -0.00035. OI 37,815 BTC.
- Price slid from about 83707 to about 83492 over the last hour of 5m closes, then flattened.

## Inferences
- Bid-heavy book plus negative premium suggests a slight upward skew; weak evidence, as resting orders can be pulled.
- A 12 bp target is about 1.7x one 5m sigma, so it is plausible in 30 minutes but not assured.
- Expected return: move 11.8 bp after deadband, scale about 0.776, times 0.98 fee = about 8.97 bp, times 500 = about 44.8% on margin.

## Uncertainty and unanswered questions
- No hit-rate backtest (bust-before-target frequency) was run; the estimate rests on volatility ratios only.
- No trade-flow (CVD), news or scheduled macro data checked; unknown events could dominate.
- Why 500x over higher leverage: at 1000x the 5.2 bp bust is about 1.5x 1m vol and is very likely hit before a target; I judged the extra payoff not worth it. This is a judgment, not a computed optimum.
- Not financial advice; the leveraged position can lose the full margin.