# BTC-USD perpetual trade decision

Snapshot time: **2026-10-16T16:19:02Z**. The request used Hyperliquid's public `info` endpoint for 1m/5m/15m candle snapshots, `metaAndAssetCtxs`, and a 5-significant-figure BTC L2 book. The API documentation describes the [info endpoint, candle snapshots and L2 book](https://hyperliquid.gitbook.io/Hyperliquid-docs/for-developers/api/info-endpoint) and the [perpetual asset context request](https://hyperliquid.gitbook.io/hyperliquid-docs/for-developers/api/info-endpoint/perpetuals). These live figures are attributable to those requests at the stated time; they are a snapshot, not independently audited market data.

## Decision

```json
{
  "direction": "short",
  "leverage": 750,
  "take_profit_bp": 10.0,
  "take_profit_price": 81403.0155,
  "bust_distance_bp": 8.533333,
  "bust_price_estimate": 81554.0334,
  "expected_net_return_on_margin_pct": 54.33,
  "confidence": 0.56,
  "regime": "volatile_choppy",
  "key_levels": {
    "support": 81226.0,
    "resistance": 81701.0
  },
  "entry_mid": 81484.5,
  "data_time_utc": "2026-10-16T16:19:02Z",
  "reasoning": "At 2026-10-16T16:19:02Z, BTC was 81,484.5; the 60 one-minute candles fell 15.3 bp net, the latest 15m close is below its 9/20-candle mean (81,768/82,009), and mark traded 2.48 bp below oracle, favoring a short. At 750x the estimated bust is 8.53 bp away; a 10 bp target yields 54.33% net on margin under the supplied haircut and sits within recent 5m swing levels, while high realized volatility and bid-heavy displayed depth temper confidence.",
  "risks": "A rebound of about 8.53 bp to 81,554.03 liquidates the position before the 10 bp target; the largest high-above-open excursion in the latest 12 one-minute candles was 12.53 bp, already greater than the bust distance. The near-book bid/ask size imbalance was 2.44:1 and can change quickly."
}
```

## Evidence and interpretation

**Observed:** best bid/ask were 81,484.0/81,485.0, giving entry mid 81,484.5. In the 60 returned one-minute candles, close moved -15.32 bp from first to last; the standard deviation of the 60 close-to-close log returns was 4.97 bp/min. The latest 15m close (81,485.0) was below simple 9/20-candle close means (81,767.6/82,008.7). Mark was 81,484.0 against oracle 81,504.2 (mark premium -2.48 bp); current funding was 0.00001250 per hour, positive. Displayed bid size within 10 bp was 98.98 BTC versus 40.60 BTC on asks. The 12 latest 5m candles ranged from 81,226.0 to 81,701.0.

**Inference:** the recent downside impulse, lower 15m means and negative mark premium favor a short; the book's bid-heavy snapshot argues against it. The setup is labeled volatile/choppy because one-minute realized volatility and recent intrabar excursions are large relative to the 8.53 bp bust distance. I chose 750x, the lowest permitted leverage, to maximize survivable distance while remaining within the fixed leverage range. A 10 bp favorable move has an estimated 54.33% return on margin after applying the brief's deadband, scale and win fee; this is conditional on take-profit filling, not a probability-weighted expected value.

**Limits / unanswered:** candle history shows realized movement, not the order in which each candle's high and low occurred; it cannot establish whether a TP or bust barrier would have been hit first. The book and funding are snapshots, and no external event calendar or independent order-flow history was checked. The short can still be liquidated quickly; no stop exists before bust under the supplied mechanics.