{
  "direction": "short",
  "leverage": 800,
  "take_profit_bp": 12,
  "take_profit_price": 81460.6298,
  "bust_distance_bp": 7.7,
  "bust_price_estimate": 81621.300045,
  "expected_net_return_on_margin_pct": 71.743709,
  "confidence": 0.4,
  "regime": "ranging",
  "key_levels": {
    "support": 81528,
    "resistance": 81621
  },
  "entry_mid": 81558.5,
  "data_time_utc": "2026-10-17T11:20:53.081713+00:00",
  "reasoning": "Hyperliquid public API (https://api.hyperliquid.xyz/info; saved responses and calculations in research/) shows BTC down 7.60 bp over the last 15 completed minutes, below falling 1m and 5m EMAs, favoring a short despite the broader range. The last completed 5m candle fell 7.47 bp, while 15-minute close-return volatility is 1.43 bp per minute; 800x gives 7.7 bp of rebound room, with the estimated bust just above recent resistance at 81621. The 12 bp target needs a break of six-hour support at 81528 and retains about 75% of the gross gain after the deadband, haircut and win fee, yielding about 72% on margin if hit. Confidence is subjective and low: only 4 of 66 overlapping six-hour 5m-candle short entries hit this target first within 30 minutes, versus 11 busts and 51 unresolved, so neither positive expected value nor a 30-minute completion is established.",
  "risks": "A rebound through 81621 toward the hourly range high at 81657 can liquidate the entire margin before further downside; nearby support at 81528 could trigger that rebound. The visible book covers only about 2.4 bp per side, candle tests use trade prices rather than historical BBO mids, and neither future news nor a calibrated win probability is known."
}