{
  "direction": "short",
  "leverage": 800,
  "take_profit_bp": 14,
  "take_profit_price": 81414.3601,
  "bust_distance_bp": 7.7,
  "bust_price_estimate": 81591.276945,
  "expected_net_return_on_margin_pct": 85.62010074,
  "confidence": 0.42,
  "regime": "trending_down",
  "key_levels": {
    "support": 81452,
    "resistance": 81562
  },
  "entry_mid": 81528.5,
  "data_time_utc": "2026-10-17T01:17:13.977208Z",
  "reasoning": "Hyperliquid /info observations archived in evidence/final_snapshot.json put the mid below falling 5-minute and 15-minute EMA20s at $81,568 and $81,601, with approximately 8.5% ask-heavy depth within 10 bp; I infer bearish continuation despite nearly flat 1-minute momentum. At 800x, the 7.7 bp bust buffer is about four times recent 1-minute volatility of 1.93 bp, but remains smaller than the 5-minute 90th-percentile upward excursion of 10.15 bp. A 14 bp target retains about 76.4% of the raw gain after the supplied haircut and win fee, paying 85.62% on margin if hit, but requires breaking $81,452 support. Among 60 overlapping historical entries with 30-minute follow-up, this short configuration produced 18 target-first, 16 bust-first and 26 unresolved outcomes using trade-candle proxies, so positive expectancy remains unproven and confidence is modest.",
  "risks": "A rebound through $81,562 toward the estimated $81,591.28 bust would forfeit the full isolated margin; ordinary 5-minute upward excursions can exceed the buffer. Holding $81,452 support may prevent the target within 30 minutes, and candles cannot resolve every liquidation-triggering mid-price spike."
}