{"p_yes":0.99,"rationale":"Current evidence: BTC is about $84,091, with a reported intraday range of $82,923–$85,518 (finance snapshot, 2026-09-30). The $60,000 cutoff is roughly 29% below spot; a 24-hour VWAP below it in seven days would require an exceptional crash and sustained trading below the cutoff. Inference: YES is overwhelmingly more likely. Uncertainty remains because BTC is volatile and this is a week-ahead forecast; I cannot know the resolution-window trades in advance.","sources":["https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD","https://docs.cdp.coinbase.com/api-reference/advanced-trade-api/rest-api/public/get-public-market-trades"]}