# BTC-USD perpetual PaperTrade decision

Data was fetched from the Hyperliquid public `info` endpoint at 2026-10-16T20:33:22.918Z. The live BBO was 81656 bid / 81657 ask, so the PaperTrade entry mid is 81656.5.

## Evidence

- 1-minute: close 81657, EMA9 81627.75, EMA20 81608.88, with 4.15 bp return volatility and 4.47 bp average candle range over the fetched hour.
- 5-minute: close 81657, EMA9 81572.34 above EMA20 81487.68, but the six-hour mean return was -1.25 bp with 16.89 bp volatility and a 80772–82460 range.
- 15-minute: EMA9 81491.51 below EMA20 81504.43; 24-hour mean return was -0.88 bp with 20.04 bp volatility and a 80772–82898 range.
- Order-book depth within 10 bp of mid was 37.29 BTC bid versus 123.65 BTC ask, an ask-heavy imbalance. Recent prints were predominantly buys, which is a contrary risk for a short and lowers confidence.
- BTC context: mark 81659, oracle 81689, premium -0.0003917, funding 0.0000125 hourly, open interest 41313.72534 BTC, and 24-hour notional volume about $2.903B.

## Decision

Short 800x at 81656.5, with a 14 bp favorable target at 81542.1809. The bust distance is 7.7 bp, giving an estimated bust price of 81719.375505; this sits just below the recent 5-minute swing high near 81729. The 14 bp target is large enough to reduce the deadband/scale haircut while remaining near the 81530 recent support area; using the supplied haircut formula gives an estimated 85.6201% return on margin if the target fills.

This is an inference, not a forecast guarantee: the higher-timeframe drift and ask-heavy book favor the short, but the last hour's positive rebound and buy-heavy recent prints make the regime volatile/choppy. The principal liquidation risk is a continuation of that rebound through 81719.38, especially if the 81729 swing high is reclaimed; a sudden 5-minute volatility burst can traverse the 7.7 bp adverse allowance quickly.

## Machine-readable decision

```json
{"direction":"short","leverage":800,"take_profit_bp":14,"take_profit_price":81542.1809,"bust_distance_bp":7.7,"bust_price_estimate":81719.375505,"expected_net_return_on_margin_pct":85.62010074112666,"confidence":0.62,"regime":"volatile_choppy","key_levels":{"support":81530,"resistance":81729},"entry_mid":81656.5,"data_time_utc":"2026-10-16T20:33:22.918Z","reasoning":"The 5-minute and 15-minute samples retain negative mean returns and the order book has about 123.65 BTC of asks versus 37.29 BTC of bids within 10 bp, favoring a short despite a positive 1-minute rebound. An 800x position leaves a 7.7 bp bust distance, while a 14 bp target reaches the recent 81530 support area and is large enough that the supplied haircut still implies about 85.62% return on margin.","risks":"A rebound through 81719.38, especially reclaiming the recent 81729 swing high, would liquidate the position; the recent buy-heavy prints and high 5-minute volatility make that risk material."}
```