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It replaces zero previous fees with 1 bp for fee-adjusted price observations and uses a gated two-speed EMA instead of RS2's censored mixture price filter."},{"paired":{"n":256,"mean_diff":-3.7299506955264823,"se":0.09995949336349315,"worst":[{"seed":901180,"d":-11.774536866994254},{"seed":901133,"d":-10.163979451916362},{"seed":901146,"d":-9.746711927991896},{"seed":901156,"d":-9.535871337222147},{"seed":901239,"d":-9.187325304253818}]},"retail_edge_delta":{"mean":-4.57263440513589,"se":0.11424085804649807},"arb_edge_delta":{"mean":0.8426837096094064,"se":0.043090628402560824},"sha256":"33659309a9cbe17929389b4e46b7427460d04a741299894b99f5e45d4549b626","url":"https://github.com/jaoz/amm-challenge/blob/7daa7c8cfaa5125fe1a659685066125f5e39f312/Cursor/strategies/champions/theo1_islandga10h_expanded_worker0_best_20260217.sol","gas":{"max_ok":152739,"oog":0},"mechanism":"It gates large-trade tail harvesting with a hard first-print arbitrage classifier using size, price innovation, toxicity and direction. For eligible prints it adds quadratic and cubic raw-size-tail surcharges, boosted 1.5 times on later prints in the same step. It raises endangered-side fees to model-price no-arbitrage floors plus a buffer before tail compression; RS2 has no such floor or conditional raw-size-tail surcharge."}],"code":"// SPDX-License-Identifier: MIT\npragma solidity ^0.8.24;\n\nimport {AMMStrategyBase} from \"./AMMStrategyBase.sol\";\nimport {TradeInfo} from \"./IAMMStrategy.sol\";\n\ncontract Strategy is AMMStrategyBase {\n    // --- decay / update constants ---\n    uint256 constant ELAPSED_CAP = 8;\n    uint256 constant SIGNAL_THRESHOLD = WAD / 500; // ~20 bps of reserve\n    uint256 constant DIR_DECAY = 800000000000000000; // 0.80\n    uint256 constant ACT_DECAY = 700000000000000000; // 0.70\n    uint256 constant SIZE_DECAY = 700000000000000000; // 0.70\n    uint256 constant TOX_DECAY = 910000000000000000; // 0.91\n    uint256 constant SIGMA_DECAY = 824000000000000000; // 0.824\n    uint256 constant LAMBDA_DECAY = 990000000000000000; // 0.99\n    uint256 constant SIZE_BLEND_DECAY = 818000000000000000; // 0.818\n    uint256 constant TOX_BLEND_DECAY = 51000000000000000; // 0.051\n    uint256 constant ACT_BLEND_DECAY = 985000000000000000; // 0.985\n    uint256 constant PHAT_ALPHA = 260000000000000000; // 0.26\n    uint256 constant PHAT_ALPHA_RETAIL = 50000000000000000; // 0.05\n    uint256 constant DIR_IMPACT_MULT = 2;\n\n    // --- Adaptive Shock Gate ---\n    uint256 constant GATE_SIGMA_MULT = 10 * WAD;\n    uint256 constant MIN_GATE = 30000000000000000; // 0.03 WAD\n\n    // --- Cubic Toxicity ---\n    uint256 constant TOX_CUBIC_COEF = 15000 * BPS;\n\n    // --- Trade-Tox Boost ---\n    uint256 constant TRADE_TOX_BOOST = 2500 * BPS;\n\n    // --- Asymmetric Stale Dir ---\n    uint256 constant STALE_ATTRACT_FRAC = 1124000000000000000; // 1.124\n\n    // --- state caps ---\n    uint256 constant RET_CAP = WAD / 10; // 10%\n    uint256 constant TOX_CAP = WAD / 5; // 20%\n    uint256 constant TRADE_RATIO_CAP = WAD / 5; // 20%\n    uint256 constant LAMBDA_CAP = 5 * WAD; // max 5 trades/step estimate\n    uint256 constant STEP_COUNT_CAP = 64; // guardrail\n\n    // --- fee model constants ---\n    uint256 constant BASE_FEE = 3 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant SIGMA_COEF = 200000000000000000; // 0.20\n    uint256 constant LAMBDA_COEF = 12 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant FLOW_SIZE_COEF = 4842 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant TOX_COEF = 250 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant TOX_QUAD_COEF = 11700 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant ACT_COEF = 91843 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant DIR_COEF = 20 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant DIR_TOX_COEF = 100 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant STALE_DIR_COEF = 6850 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant SIGMA_TOX_COEF = 500 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant TAIL_KNEE = 500 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant TAIL_SLOPE_PROTECT = 930000000000000000; // 0.93\n    uint256 constant TAIL_SLOPE_ATTRACT = 955000000000000000; // 0.955\n\n    // slots[0] = bid fee\n    // slots[1] = ask fee\n    // slots[2] = last timestamp\n    // slots[3] = dirState (centered at WAD, [0, 2*WAD])\n    // slots[4] = actEma\n    // slots[5] = pHat\n    // slots[6] = sigmaHat\n    // slots[7] = lambdaHat\n    // slots[8] = sizeHat\n    // slots[9] = toxEma\n    // slots[10] = stepTradeCount (raw integer)\n\n    function afterInitialize(uint256 initialX, uint256 initialY) external override returns (uint256, uint256) {\n        slots[0] = BASE_FEE;\n        slots[1] = BASE_FEE;\n        slots[2] = 0;\n        slots[3] = WAD; // neutral direction\n        slots[4] = 0;\n        slots[5] = initialX > 0 ? wdiv(initialY, initialX) : 100 * WAD;\n        slots[6] = 950000000000000; // 0.095% initial sigma guess\n        slots[7] = 800000000000000000; // 0.8 initial arrival-rate guess\n        slots[8] = 2000000000000000; // 0.2% reserve-size ratio guess\n        slots[9] = 0;\n        slots[10] = 0;\n        return (BASE_FEE, BASE_FEE);\n    }\n\n    function afterSwap(TradeInfo calldata trade) external override returns (uint256, uint256) {\n        uint256 prevBidFee = slots[0];\n        uint256 prevAskFee = slots[1];\n        uint256 lastTs = slots[2];\n        uint256 dirState = slots[3];\n        uint256 actEma = slots[4];\n        uint256 pHat = slots[5];\n        uint256 sigmaHat = slots[6];\n        uint256 lambdaHat = slots[7];\n        uint256 sizeHat = slots[8];\n        uint256 toxEma = slots[9];\n        uint256 stepTradeCount = slots[10];\n\n        bool isNewStep = trade.timestamp > lastTs;\n        if (isNewStep) {\n            uint256 elapsedRaw = trade.timestamp - lastTs;\n            uint256 elapsed = elapsedRaw > ELAPSED_CAP ? ELAPSED_CAP : elapsedRaw;\n\n            dirState = _decayCentered(dirState, DIR_DECAY, elapsed);\n            actEma = wmul(actEma, _powWad(ACT_DECAY, elapsed));\n            sizeHat = wmul(sizeHat, _powWad(SIZE_DECAY, elapsed));\n            toxEma = wmul(toxEma, _powWad(TOX_DECAY, elapsed));\n\n            if (stepTradeCount > 0 && elapsedRaw > 0) {\n                uint256 lambdaInst = (stepTradeCount * WAD) / elapsedRaw;\n                if (lambdaInst > LAMBDA_CAP) lambdaInst = LAMBDA_CAP;\n                lambdaHat = wmul(lambdaHat, LAMBDA_DECAY) + wmul(lambdaInst, WAD - LAMBDA_DECAY);\n            }\n\n            stepTradeCount = 0;\n        }\n\n        bool firstInStep = stepTradeCount == 0;\n\n        uint256 spot = trade.reserveX > 0 ? wdiv(trade.reserveY, trade.reserveX) : pHat;\n        if (pHat == 0) pHat = spot;\n\n        uint256 feeUsed = trade.isBuy ? prevBidFee : prevAskFee;\n        uint256 gamma = feeUsed < WAD ? WAD - feeUsed : 0;\n        uint256 pImplied;\n        if (gamma == 0) {\n            pImplied = spot;\n        } else {\n            pImplied = trade.isBuy ? wmul(spot, gamma) : wdiv(spot, gamma);\n        }\n\n        {\n            uint256 ret = pHat > 0 ? wdiv(absDiff(pImplied, pHat), pHat) : 0;\n            uint256 alpha = firstInStep ? PHAT_ALPHA : PHAT_ALPHA_RETAIL;\n            uint256 adaptiveGate = wmul(sigmaHat, GATE_SIGMA_MULT);\n            if (adaptiveGate < MIN_GATE) adaptiveGate = MIN_GATE;\n            if (ret <= adaptiveGate) {\n                pHat = wmul(pHat, WAD - alpha) + wmul(pImplied, alpha);\n            }\n            if (firstInStep) {\n                if (ret > RET_CAP) ret = RET_CAP;\n                sigmaHat = wmul(sigmaHat, SIGMA_DECAY) + wmul(ret, WAD - SIGMA_DECAY);\n            }\n        }\n\n        uint256 tradeRatio = trade.reserveY > 0 ? wdiv(trade.amountY, trade.reserveY) : 0;\n        if (tradeRatio > TRADE_RATIO_CAP) tradeRatio = TRADE_RATIO_CAP;\n\n        if (tradeRatio > SIGNAL_THRESHOLD) {\n            uint256 push = tradeRatio * DIR_IMPACT_MULT;\n            if (push > WAD / 4) push = WAD / 4;\n\n            if (trade.isBuy) {\n                dirState = dirState + push;\n                if (dirState > 2 * WAD) dirState = 2 * WAD;\n            } else {\n                dirState = dirState > push ? dirState - push : 0;\n            }\n\n            actEma = wmul(actEma, ACT_BLEND_DECAY) + wmul(tradeRatio, WAD - ACT_BLEND_DECAY);\n\n            sizeHat = wmul(sizeHat, SIZE_BLEND_DECAY) + wmul(tradeRatio, WAD - SIZE_BLEND_DECAY);\n            if (sizeHat > WAD) sizeHat = WAD;\n        }\n\n        uint256 tox = pHat > 0 ? wdiv(absDiff(spot, pHat), pHat) : 0;\n        if (tox > TOX_CAP) tox = TOX_CAP;\n        toxEma = wmul(toxEma, TOX_BLEND_DECAY) + wmul(tox, WAD - TOX_BLEND_DECAY);\n        uint256 toxSignal = toxEma;\n\n        stepTradeCount = stepTradeCount + 1;\n        if (stepTradeCount > STEP_COUNT_CAP) stepTradeCount = STEP_COUNT_CAP;\n\n        uint256 flowSize = wmul(lambdaHat, sizeHat);\n        uint256 fBase = BASE_FEE + wmul(SIGMA_COEF, sigmaHat) + wmul(LAMBDA_COEF, lambdaHat) + wmul(FLOW_SIZE_COEF, flowSize);\n        uint256 fMid = fBase + wmul(TOX_COEF, toxSignal) + wmul(TOX_QUAD_COEF, wmul(toxSignal, toxSignal)) + wmul(ACT_COEF, actEma);\n\n        fMid = fMid + wmul(SIGMA_TOX_COEF, wmul(sigmaHat, toxSignal));\n\n        // Cubic toxicity\n        {\n            uint256 toxCubed = wmul(toxSignal, wmul(toxSignal, toxSignal));\n            fMid = fMid + wmul(TOX_CUBIC_COEF, toxCubed);\n        }\n\n        uint256 dirDev;\n        bool sellPressure;\n        if (dirState >= WAD) {\n            dirDev = dirState - WAD;\n            sellPressure = true;\n        } else {\n            dirDev = WAD - dirState;\n            sellPressure = false;\n        }\n\n        uint256 skew = wmul(DIR_COEF, dirDev) + wmul(DIR_TOX_COEF, wmul(dirDev, toxSignal));\n\n        uint256 bidFee;\n        uint256 askFee;\n        if (sellPressure) {\n            bidFee = fMid + skew;\n            askFee = fMid > skew ? fMid - skew : 0;\n        } else {\n            askFee = fMid + skew;\n            bidFee = fMid > skew ? fMid - skew : 0;\n        }\n\n        // Directional protection using stale-price sign\n        {\n            uint256 staleShift = wmul(STALE_DIR_COEF, toxSignal);\n            uint256 attractShift = wmul(staleShift, STALE_ATTRACT_FRAC);\n            if (spot >= pHat) {\n                bidFee = bidFee + staleShift;\n                askFee = askFee > attractShift ? askFee - attractShift : 0;\n            } else {\n                askFee = askFee + staleShift;\n                bidFee = bidFee > attractShift ? bidFee - attractShift : 0;\n            }\n        }\n\n        // Trade-aligned toxicity boost\n        {\n            bool tradeAligned = (trade.isBuy && spot >= pHat) || (!trade.isBuy && spot < pHat);\n            if (tradeAligned) {\n                uint256 tradeBoost = wmul(TRADE_TOX_BOOST, tradeRatio);\n                if (trade.isBuy) {\n                    bidFee = bidFee + tradeBoost;\n                } else {\n                    askFee = askFee + tradeBoost;\n                }\n            }\n        }\n\n        // Asymmetric tail compression\n        if (sellPressure) {\n            bidFee = clampFee(_compressTailWithSlope(bidFee, TAIL_SLOPE_PROTECT));\n            askFee = clampFee(_compressTailWithSlope(askFee, TAIL_SLOPE_ATTRACT));\n        } else {\n            askFee = clampFee(_compressTailWithSlope(askFee, TAIL_SLOPE_PROTECT));\n            bidFee = clampFee(_compressTailWithSlope(bidFee, TAIL_SLOPE_ATTRACT));\n        }\n\n        slots[0] = bidFee;\n        slots[1] = askFee;\n        slots[2] = trade.timestamp;\n        slots[3] = dirState;\n        slots[4] = actEma;\n        slots[5] = pHat;\n        slots[6] = sigmaHat;\n        slots[7] = lambdaHat;\n        slots[8] = sizeHat;\n        slots[9] = toxEma;\n        slots[10] = stepTradeCount;\n\n        return (bidFee, askFee);\n    }\n\n    function _compressTailWithSlope(uint256 fee, uint256 slope) internal pure returns (uint256) {\n        if (fee <= TAIL_KNEE) return fee;\n        return TAIL_KNEE + wmul(fee - TAIL_KNEE, slope);\n    }\n\n    function _powWad(uint256 factor, uint256 exp) internal pure returns (uint256 result) {\n        result = WAD;\n        while (exp > 0) {\n            if (exp & 1 == 1) result = wmul(result, factor);\n            factor = wmul(factor, factor);\n            exp >>= 1;\n        }\n    }\n\n    function _decayCentered(uint256 centered, uint256 decayFactor, uint256 elapsed) internal pure returns (uint256) {\n        uint256 mul = _powWad(decayFactor, elapsed);\n        if (centered >= WAD) {\n            return WAD + wmul(centered - WAD, mul);\n        }\n        uint256 below = wmul(WAD - centered, mul);\n        return below < WAD ? WAD - below : 0;\n    }\n\n    function getName() external pure override returns (string memory) {\n        return \"yq\";\n    }\n}","sha256":"04bd879abe5937e7ad75f3c59ef3dcf58c22a9ba3a9b04db650b573c7ac01353","url":"https://github.com/jaoz/amm-challenge/blob/7daa7c8cfaa5125fe1a659685066125f5e39f312/Strat/baseline_sourced.sol","author":"jaoz","author_commit":"4196a8d2f776efa7c6fc70dce73ff251bb4e743b","author_url":"https://api.github.com/repos/jaoz/amm-challenge/commits/4196a8d2f776efa7c6fc70dce73ff251bb4e743b","licence":"MIT (source SPDX and fork pyproject metadata)","licence_url":"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/jaoz/amm-challenge/7daa7c8cfaa5125fe1a659685066125f5e39f312/pyproject.toml","notes":{"protocol":"Pinned upstream 6b6921f8d463314aa7c96234e1be25a25245f704 and checksum-verified simulator wheel from the brief; supplied harness run()/compare() used unchanged. Every arm alone against VanillaStrategy; run_batch(...,8); MatchRunner config construction; price seed s and retail seed s+1.","seeds":{"calibration":[0,999],"screen":[900000,900031],"confirmation":[901000,901255]},"calibration":{"n":1000,"mean_edge":525.5258821780834,"expected":525.5258821780834,"gas":{"max_ok":151647,"oog":0}},"baseline":{"name":"RS2","sha256":"f24b6ca198b744c380842c3a17964a6dc21f311bb04984b26733afa3fee8eaf2","mean32":542.3651755555325,"mean256":533.7351592392916,"gas32":{"max_ok":197184,"oog":0},"gas256":{"max_ok":202386,"oog":0}},"fork_summary":[{"fork":"jaoz/amm-challenge","retained":50,"validated":50,"best_d32":-2.8743337699932106},{"fork":"horacepan/amm-challenge","retained":4,"validated":4,"best_d32":-6.558325029521733},{"fork":"Leoeqs/amm-challenge","retained":2,"validated":2,"best_d32":-158.44052160838334},{"fork":"alitaslimi/amm-challenge","retained":1,"validated":0,"best_d32":null}],"coverage":"All remote branch heads fetched by ordinary git clone; every .sol with a function afterSwap differing by SHA256 from all pinned-upstream .sol files collected. Dedupe by full-file SHA256. jaoz had 158 distinct files; retained its 50 latest by last path-change commit timestamp, with stable branch/path traversal breaking ties. horacepan had 4; Leoeqs 2; alitaslimi 1. All 57 hashes were distinct across forks. 56 validated and were scored; alitaslimi failed the contract-name requirement and was not changed.","selection":"Top three gas-safe valid files selected solely by paired screening mean versus RS2. Final top3 and code best ranked by paired mean on 256 prescribed seeds. No seeds >=5000000 were used; no STACK or board improvement is established by this experiment.","execution_failures":[{"sha256":"b478276c0e819c2e88c1bbbd4b43471ee882be846efd7aa59d612f51a2a67cf1","oog":378184,"score_invalid":true},{"sha256":"f87fb49ab6ceef279ab64d075e1a48992a802fab4e5065740bbbe37a64664512","oog":247156,"score_invalid":true}],"gas_scope":"max_ok is peak successful Submission afterSwap gas; oog sums Submission callback OOG counters. files.valid records amm-match validation only; any execution halt invalidates its score and excludes it from selection. files.oog is the 32-seed screen; top3.gas is the 256-seed run. All baseline and candidate callback errors checked from raw amm_sim_rs.gas_stats(), including reversions, bad returns and other halts.","statistics":"Paired mean and sample standard error across seeds; worst lists the five lowest single-seed candidate-minus-RS2 edge differences. Retail and arb deltas use the supplied harness reserve-path decomposition; they sum to total paired delta. That harness assumes initial fees of 0.0004 for decomposition, including fork candidates with other initial fees; total edge comparisons are unaffected.","author_definition":"author is the public git author of the last commit touching the selected file, not a claim of sole original authorship.","license":"Selected source has SPDX MIT and fork pyproject.toml declares MIT. No separate repository-root LICENSE file found at the selected head.","provenance":[{"fork":"jaoz","branch":"Search-powell-style","commit":"7daa7c8cfaa5125fe1a659685066125f5e39f312","url":"https://api.github.com/repos/jaoz/amm-challenge/git/trees/7daa7c8cfaa5125fe1a659685066125f5e39f312?recursive=1"},{"fork":"jaoz","branch":"main","commit":"6b6921f8d463314aa7c96234e1be25a25245f704","url":"https://api.github.com/repos/jaoz/amm-challenge/git/trees/6b6921f8d463314aa7c96234e1be25a25245f704?recursive=1"},{"fork":"horacepan","branch":"claude/continue-top-ideas-2Ce5X","commit":"43158350b87d283d514e9add9c72a13ec15ec281","url":"https://api.github.com/repos/horacepan/amm-challenge/git/trees/43158350b87d283d514e9add9c72a13ec15ec281?recursive=1"},{"fork":"horacepan","branch":"claude/cumulative-impact-decay-YgdwG","commit":"f2c30953280a96f1a529e3e4db2764dbbc38b0a0","url":"https://api.github.com/repos/horacepan/amm-challenge/git/trees/f2c30953280a96f1a529e3e4db2764dbbc38b0a0?recursive=1"},{"fork":"horacepan","branch":"claude/implement-arb-detector-CWeOg","commit":"912014f6797ef15804ed8f99330e7bd645ca34e2","url":"https://api.github.com/repos/horacepan/amm-challenge/git/trees/912014f6797ef15804ed8f99330e7bd645ca34e2?recursive=1"},{"fork":"horacepan","branch":"claude/volboost-amm-fees-6BHVn","commit":"4f1021a1df7bab26b67fc649f60ccdf1fe93f634","url":"https://api.github.com/repos/horacepan/amm-challenge/git/trees/4f1021a1df7bab26b67fc649f60ccdf1fe93f634?recursive=1"},{"fork":"horacepan","branch":"main","commit":"09d54fb66a0dd0f74aaf961af28478400e121f05","url":"https://api.github.com/repos/horacepan/amm-challenge/git/trees/09d54fb66a0dd0f74aaf961af28478400e121f05?recursive=1"},{"fork":"Leoeqs","branch":"main","commit":"bb1df27b74bcafe0abfc3618e89ea80557a220b8","url":"https://api.github.com/repos/Leoeqs/amm-challenge/git/trees/bb1df27b74bcafe0abfc3618e89ea80557a220b8?recursive=1"},{"fork":"alitaslimi","branch":"main","commit":"d5691537907af9d11679eaf7e3188024b9c0da02","url":"https://api.github.com/repos/alitaslimi/amm-challenge/git/trees/d5691537907af9d11679eaf7e3188024b9c0da02?recursive=1"}],"conclusion":"No screened fork candidate beat RS2."}}