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BPS"},"score":{"n":2000,"mean_edge":169.14863060854555},"paired":{"reference":"contracts/src/StarterStrategy.sol","seed_start":0,"n":2000,"mean_diff":-199.6557900091401,"se":1.23706036797251,"worst":[{"seed":1996,"difference":-352.8382477829391},{"seed":531,"difference":-350.826408692341},{"seed":901,"difference":-343.01324164088663},{"seed":1118,"difference":-334.05718202809464},{"seed":1067,"difference":-332.50368087315775}]},"paired_vs_selected":{"reference":"candidates/fair-centered/Strategy.sol","seed_start":0,"n":2000,"mean_diff":-266.49307310123004,"se":1.2080012684479875,"worst":[{"seed":1067,"difference":-409.8845859035735},{"seed":170,"difference":-398.8152767666976},{"seed":1192,"difference":-395.3885058990198},{"seed":1245,"difference":-393.91397488875464},{"seed":1596,"difference":-392.5473024953852}]},"eligible_for_final":true},{"name":"s45_w2_g60","mechanism":"first_event_gate","code_sha256":"179f234c2779523f80e6852ae4a0ce3616c7e0005968564c17cd47ccaf02a599","parameters":{"BID_SPREAD":"45 * BPS","ASK_SPREAD":"45 * BPS","AGE_WIDTH":"2 * BPS","READ_TOLERANCE":"60 * BPS"},"score":{"n":2000,"mean_edge":167.77210206265096},"paired":{"reference":"contracts/src/StarterStrategy.sol","seed_start":0,"n":2000,"mean_diff":-201.03231855503472,"se":1.3142628386806232,"worst":[{"seed":531,"difference":-365.0221232549825},{"seed":1996,"difference":-363.20820599847445},{"seed":493,"difference":-344.7965220206404},{"seed":89,"difference":-342.0762796468199},{"seed":901,"difference":-334.56954348663106}]},"paired_vs_selected":{"reference":"candidates/fair-centered/Strategy.sol","seed_start":0,"n":2000,"mean_diff":-267.8696016471246,"se":1.3412029695740728,"worst":[{"seed":98,"difference":-415.817346849811},{"seed":1067,"difference":-406.31193736724686},{"seed":1192,"difference":-406.03673538157386},{"seed":531,"difference":-404.8865400851696},{"seed":1075,"difference":-402.0164594850326}]},"eligible_for_final":true},{"name":"s60_w2_g60","mechanism":"first_event_gate","code_sha256":"2df3373caf48cce4d086198016597db8a1998d5698c48a18c0192618155db029","parameters":{"BID_SPREAD":"60 * BPS","ASK_SPREAD":"60 * BPS","AGE_WIDTH":"2 * BPS","READ_TOLERANCE":"60 * BPS"},"score":{"n":2000,"mean_edge":166.34460150331518},"paired":{"reference":"contracts/src/StarterStrategy.sol","seed_start":0,"n":2000,"mean_diff":-202.4598191143705,"se":1.3221023981091027,"worst":[{"seed":531,"difference":-367.0519598041557},{"seed":1996,"difference":-360.27489647785524},{"seed":98,"difference":-342.5374284455763},{"seed":1067,"difference":-338.2723775165322},{"seed":1596,"difference":-336.6561741895056}]},"paired_vs_selected":{"reference":"candidates/fair-centered/Strategy.sol","seed_start":0,"n":2000,"mean_diff":-269.2971022064604,"se":1.3389046079036815,"worst":[{"seed":98,"difference":-427.7838432046577},{"seed":1245,"difference":-424.441618221143},{"seed":1067,"difference":-415.65328254694793},{"seed":1978,"difference":-408.93000451866703},{"seed":701,"difference":-407.74480133209295}]},"eligible_for_final":true},{"name":"initial_s20_w2_g25","mechanism":"first_event_gate","code_sha256":"c2832627bab0eb34c781c581420ef0bea3f83b4541548b3b8651223baec932a4","parameters":{"BID_SPREAD":"20 * BPS","ASK_SPREAD":"20 * BPS","AGE_WIDTH":"2 * BPS","READ_TOLERANCE":"25 * BPS"},"score":{"n":2000,"mean_edge":165.5826187884898},"paired":{"reference":"contracts/src/StarterStrategy.sol","seed_start":0,"n":2000,"mean_diff":-203.2218018291958,"se":1.2473568177940386,"worst":[{"seed":1996,"difference":-359.77987672469544},{"seed":531,"difference":-352.0971016116889},{"seed":901,"difference":-344.33699609798816},{"seed":1596,"difference":-340.54496541534104},{"seed":390,"difference":-335.6931081377521}]},"paired_vs_selected":{"reference":"candidates/fair-centered/Strategy.sol","seed_start":0,"n":2000,"mean_diff":-270.0590849212858,"se":1.212661570987811,"worst":[{"seed":1067,"difference":-412.6952138832939},{"seed":170,"difference":-402.7226597518465},{"seed":1596,"difference":-401.0972472257057},{"seed":1245,"difference":-399.45047478647007},{"seed":1192,"difference":-395.8184155636198}]},"eligible_for_final":true},{"name":"s30_w2_g30_aligned","mechanism":"aligned","code_sha256":"646067fa9b5feba62a689780ac82069ba7e898033c12250113ac3088cd5a58e8","parameters":{"BID_SPREAD":"30 * BPS","ASK_SPREAD":"30 * BPS","AGE_WIDTH":"2 * BPS","READ_TOLERANCE":"30 * BPS"},"score":{"n":2000,"mean_edge":162.6403068278332},"paired":{"reference":"contracts/src/StarterStrategy.sol","seed_start":0,"n":2000,"mean_diff":-206.16411378985248,"se":1.252339801686148,"worst":[{"seed":1996,"difference":-364.3265968756107},{"seed":531,"difference":-350.3057555899037},{"seed":901,"difference":-344.0716051502226},{"seed":1596,"difference":-339.33547002935995},{"seed":390,"difference":-337.4444756052417}]},"paired_vs_selected":{"reference":"candidates/fair-centered/Strategy.sol","seed_start":0,"n":2000,"mean_diff":-273.0013968819424,"se":1.2190623277105104,"worst":[{"seed":170,"difference":-403.5247126564103},{"seed":1067,"difference":-400.5182895074238},{"seed":1596,"difference":-399.8877518397246},{"seed":1192,"difference":-395.8256270261783},{"seed":1245,"difference":-395.81579121878997}]},"eligible_for_final":true}],"experiment_families":{"away_jump":"First-event direction away from the stored price; consistency tolerance adds the last accepted relative price jump to the age-based gate.","first_event_gate":"First-event fee-band consistency gate; otherwise keep the last inferred price.","aligned":"First-event direction toward the stored price, combined with the consistency gate.","small":"First-event consistency gate plus amountY/reserveY below 5 bps (about 10 bps spot impact).","away":"First-event direction away from the stored price, combined with the age-based consistency gate.","reset8":"Consistency gate with an unconditional first-event reacquisition after eight steps without an accepted observation.","reverse":"Minimum-innovation gate: accept first-event implied-price changes exceeding the age-based threshold.","tree":"Shallow arb classifier fitted on 122461 labeled first callbacks from Python diagnostic seeds 0..23; runtime uses observable features only.","regret":"First-event decision tree fitted to expected reduction in absolute or squared price-estimation error; hold otherwise."},"next":["Test a two-hypothesis fair-price filter that retains the previous trusted price alongside the latest observation, allowing rejection of suspected retail reads without blocking later arb corrections.","Condition age uncertainty on the absence of earlier arb callbacks and the quoted no-arbitrage interval; compare that model with the small positive sqrt(age) widening and the zero-width ablation.","Combine this estimator with the strongest independently measured round-one spread/flow policy, then measure its incremental gain over that incumbent on at least 2000 new paired seeds."],"code":"// SPDX-License-Identifier: MIT\npragma solidity ^0.8.24;\n\nimport {AMMStrategyBase} from \"./AMMStrategyBase.sol\";\nimport {TradeInfo} from \"./IAMMStrategy.sol\";\n\n/// @notice Center fee-adjusted quotes on a price inferred from likely arbitrage.\ncontract Strategy is AMMStrategyBase {\n    uint256 private constant BID_SPREAD = 10 * BPS;\n    uint256 private constant ASK_SPREAD = 10 * BPS;\n    uint256 private constant AGE_WIDTH = 10000000000000;\n    uint256 private constant READ_TOLERANCE = 25 * BPS;\n\n    // 0: inferred fair price; 1: last accepted observation timestamp + 1;\n    // 2: last callback timestamp + 1; 3/4: previously quoted bid/ask fees.\n    function afterInitialize(uint256 initialX, uint256 initialY)\n        external override returns (uint256 bidFee, uint256 askFee)\n    {\n        slots[0] = wdiv(initialY, initialX);\n        slots[1] = 1;\n        slots[2] = 0;\n        slots[5] = slots[0];\n        bidFee = BID_SPREAD;\n        askFee = wdiv(ASK_SPREAD, WAD + ASK_SPREAD);\n        slots[3] = bidFee;\n        slots[4] = askFee;\n    }\n\n    function afterSwap(TradeInfo calldata trade)\n        external override returns (uint256 bidFee, uint256 askFee)\n    {\n        uint256 spot = wdiv(trade.reserveY, trade.reserveX);\n        uint256 fair = slots[0];\n        uint256 nowTag = trade.timestamp + 1;\n        uint256 age = nowTag > slots[1] ? nowTag - slots[1] : 0;\n\n        // Only the first callback of a step can be arbitrage. Its old-fee band\n        // edge is an exact price observation IF it was arbitrage; consistency\n        // with the last estimate is a heuristic, not proof of trade identity.\n        uint256 priorSpot = slots[5];\n        slots[5] = spot;\n        if (nowTag != slots[2] && (trade.isBuy ? priorSpot <= fair : priorSpot >= fair)) {\n            uint256 implied = trade.isBuy\n                ? wmul(spot, WAD - slots[3])\n                : wdiv(spot, WAD - slots[4]);\n            uint256 root = sqrt((age == 0 ? 1 : age) * 1e6);\n            uint256 tolerance = READ_TOLERANCE * root / 1000 + slots[6];\n            if (absDiff(implied, fair) <= wmul(fair, tolerance)) {\n                slots[6] = wdiv(absDiff(implied, fair), fair);\n                fair = implied;\n                slots[0] = fair;\n                slots[1] = nowTag;\n                age = 0;\n            }\n        }\n        slots[2] = nowTag;\n\n        uint256 widening = AGE_WIDTH * sqrt(age * 1e6) / 1000;\n        uint256 sBid = clampFee(BID_SPREAD + widening);\n        uint256 sAsk = clampFee(ASK_SPREAD + widening);\n\n        // Solve spot*(1-bid) = fair*(1-sBid) and\n        // spot/(1-ask) = fair*(1+sAsk), with exact fee-on-input algebra.\n        uint256 targetBid = wmul(fair, WAD - sBid);\n        uint256 targetAsk = wmul(fair, WAD + sAsk);\n        bidFee = spot > targetBid ? clampFee(wdiv(spot - targetBid, spot)) : 0;\n        askFee = targetAsk > spot ? clampFee(wdiv(targetAsk - spot, targetAsk)) : 0;\n        slots[3] = bidFee;\n        slots[4] = askFee;\n    }\n\n    function getName() external pure override returns (string memory) {\n        return \"Fair Centered\";\n    }\n}\n","code_sha256":"f6d066586941de5d92b3660e0ed969436cc7b08b8e4021112886cb35b74538d5","score":{"n":1000,"mean_edge":436.1854022336248},"paired":{"reference":"contracts/src/StarterStrategy.sol","reference_sha256":"8f2cea337f6736105f58c6758da6c3ebf002951d34492bcd5b7101bef2d1e7f3","seed_start":100000,"n":2000,"mean_diff":65.05957758485293,"se":1.0618498216427668,"worst":[{"seed":101235,"difference":-180.06866795185834},{"seed":100742,"difference":-134.8900304515903},{"seed":101437,"difference":-133.67408431576263},{"seed":101021,"difference":-130.27549361844666},{"seed":100040,"difference":-127.12708908984894}]},"seconds_per_simulation":0.10162514951685443,"validate_ok":true,"citations":[{"title":"Pinned AMM challenge simulator","url":"https://github.com/benedictbrady/amm-challenge/tree/6b6921f8d463314aa7c96234e1be25a25245f704","use":"Authoritative engine, compiler, validation, parameter draws and seed semantics."},{"title":"Algebra Finance: AMM fee challenge notes","url":"https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/amm-fee-challenge-notes-from-our-run-optimization-arena-qe3ff","use":"Asymmetric fees, environmental inference and first-trade-only arbitrage ordering."},{"title":"Dipankar: Research Methodology Post-Mortem","url":"https://github.com/dipankar/amm-challenge/blob/main/ANALYSIS.md","use":"Motivated evaluating state estimation; reported external scores were not replicated."},{"title":"Public SigmaAdaptive implementation","url":"https://github.com/dipankar/amm-challenge/blob/main/contracts/src/SigmaAdaptiveStrategy.sol","use":"Read to understand the public filtered-estimation approach; no source copied."}],"changed":["candidates/fair-centered/Strategy.sol","candidates/fair-centered/result.json","candidates/fair-centered/NOTES.md","artifacts/goal/batches/r1/items/fair-centered/result.json"],"checked":{"simulator_commit":"6b6921f8d463314aa7c96234e1be25a25245f704","engine_source_modified":false,"commands":[{"command":"git checkout 6b6921f8d463314aa7c96234e1be25a25245f704 (scratch simulator clone)","result":"Exact pinned checkout."},{"command":"maturin develop --release --manifest-path test/scratch/fair-centered/amm-challenge/amm_sim_rs/Cargo.toml","result":"Release Rust engine built and installed with Rust 1.90.0."},{"command":"amm-match validate candidates/fair-centered/Strategy.sol","result":"Validating strategy...\nCompiling strategy...\nStrategy 'Fair Centered' validated successfully!"},{"command":"python test/scratch/fair-centered/check_strategy.py candidates/fair-centered/Strategy.sol","result":{"source_sha256":"f6d066586941de5d92b3660e0ed969436cc7b08b8e4021112886cb35b74538d5","callbacks":6629,"same_timestamp_checks":1683,"accepted_observation_identities":458,"unchanged_observations":6170,"initialization_gas":134664,"max_after_swap_gas":70615,"fee_bounds_ok":true,"state_slots_ok":true,"fee_band_geometry_checks":6632,"long_gap_stress_callbacks":3,"maximum_fee_clamp_hits":3,"gas_limit":250000}},{"command":"python test/scratch/fair-centered/sweep.py test/scratch/fair-centered/plan<N>.json (N = 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10; individual runs)","result":"41 distinct candidates, 2000 paired training seeds each; full statistics in tried."},{"command":"python test/scratch/fair-centered/measure.py candidates/fair-centered/Strategy.sol --reference test/scratch/fair-centered/amm-challenge/contracts/src/StarterStrategy.sol --start 100000 --n 2000 --workers 8","result":"Full fresh comparison completed; n, standard error and worst five differences in paired."}],"config_rng_parity":"All 12 fields matched MatchRunner._build_configs on seeds 0..19.","edge_reproducibility":"All 60 available pilot observations (three strategies, 20 seeds each) exactly matched their corresponding entries in the 2000-seed runs.","timing_pilot":{"n":20,"candidate_seconds_per_simulation":0.08160919185029343,"starter_seconds_per_simulation":0.056203352997545156,"projected_2000_pair_seconds":275.6250896956772},"sample_size_exception_used":false,"repaired_failures":["Initial Rust 1.85.1 build failed because ruint 1.21.1 requires Rust 1.90. Installed Rust 1.90.0 inside scratch and rebuilt successfully.","Inline configuration-parity and result-size checks initially could not import the scratch measure module (ModuleNotFoundError); setting PYTHONPATH to the scratch harness directory fixed both checks.","The diagnostic classifier fit summary initially failed to serialize NumPy int64 leaf/depth counts; converting these counts to Python int fixed the report. No strategy or score data was affected."],"scratch_tooling_is_not_delivered":true,"experiment_restart":"The plan7 driver was intentionally interrupted at valid checkpoints and resumed with eight workers after redirecting unstarted experiments to the jump-aware gate. Completed samples were preserved."},"training_comparison":{"reference":"contracts/src/StarterStrategy.sol","reference_sha256":"8f2cea337f6736105f58c6758da6c3ebf002951d34492bcd5b7101bef2d1e7f3","seed_start":0,"n":2000,"mean_diff":66.83728309208992,"se":0.9495364074741052,"worst":[{"seed":1756,"difference":-207.9522164434552},{"seed":489,"difference":-188.1596858255694},{"seed":117,"difference":-165.24653755848223},{"seed":1020,"difference":-159.5234262669503},{"seed":1808,"difference":-124.90807197570777}]},"last_jump_ablation":{"reference":"s20_w2_g25_away","reference_sha256":"8a99b90a0f84df0ee113c808e49c09e18c06ceca2892589471e4cc25468741e9","seed_start":0,"n":2000,"mean_diff":170.3470434927609,"se":1.4723209525653775,"worst":[{"seed":296,"difference":-100.4660605211024},{"seed":1008,"difference":-63.382064982567414},{"seed":460,"difference":-31.95966957520443},{"seed":1421,"difference":-26.27798562885073},{"seed":852,"difference":-25.6051060468115}],"candidate":"s20_w2_g25_away_jump","candidate_sha256":"a33c0b5b1489a367db190815e7706f2c1d950d8bcd8d4ecf28c02a3dc40cb615"},"fresh_score":{"seed_start":100000,"n":2000,"mean_edge":434.5608790222169,"reference_mean_edge":369.50130143736396},"paired_previous_best":{"reference":"contracts/src/StarterStrategy.sol","reference_sha256":"8f2cea337f6736105f58c6758da6c3ebf002951d34492bcd5b7101bef2d1e7f3","seed_start":100000,"n":2000,"mean_diff":65.05957758485293,"se":1.0618498216427668,"worst":[{"seed":101235,"difference":-180.06866795185834},{"seed":100742,"difference":-134.8900304515903},{"seed":101437,"difference":-133.67408431576263},{"seed":101021,"difference":-130.27549361844666},{"seed":100040,"difference":-127.12708908984894}]},"selection_rule":"Select the highest training mean among policies with positive age widening, as required by this item; promote only after the untouched final comparison clears twice its paired SE.","promotion":{"promoted":true,"criterion":"Fresh mean paired gain > 2 * paired standard error.","previous_best":"contracts/src/StarterStrategy.sol","previous_best_sha256":"8f2cea337f6736105f58c6758da6c3ebf002951d34492bcd5b7101bef2d1e7f3","previous_best_is_starter":true},"promotions_ranked":[{"rank":1,"file":"candidates/fair-centered/Strategy.sol","code_sha256":"f6d066586941de5d92b3660e0ed969436cc7b08b8e4021112886cb35b74538d5","previous_best":"contracts/src/StarterStrategy.sol","mean_edge_fresh":434.5608790222169,"n":2000,"paired_gain":65.05957758485293,"se":1.0618498216427668}],"limitations":["Trade identity is not observable exactly: retail can pass the gate and true arbitrage can fail it. A band-implied price is exact only conditional on correct classification.","The square-root aging term is a tuned risk margin, not a calibrated confidence interval; it does not fully exploit the information in an interval without arb callbacks.","Fee floors and the 10% cap can prevent exact centering when spot is far from the estimate.","Results concern the pinned simulator. Public leaderboard scores were not independently replicated, and no leaderboard rank or submission is claimed."]}