# BTC-USD perpetual trade decision

**Decision time:** 2026-10-16 20:37:38 UTC  
**Market data:** Hyperliquid public Info API, fetched at 2026-10-16T20:37:38.479Z. The candle, asset-context, and L2 book request formats are documented in the [Hyperliquid Info endpoint reference](https://hyperliquid.gitbook.io/Hyperliquid-docs/for-developers/api/info-endpoint) and [perpetual asset-context reference](https://hyperliquid.gitbook.io/hyperliquid-docs/for-developers/api/info-endpoint/perpetuals).  
**Entry reference:** Best bid $81,670.00 and ask $81,671.00; mid = **$81,670.50**. This is the supplied PaperTrade mid-price execution convention.

## Decision

- **Direction:** Long
- **Leverage:** 780x isolated
- **Take profit:** 12 bp favorable price move, at **$81,768.50**
- **Estimated liquidation distance:** 8.0205 bp against entry; estimated bust price **$81,605.00**
- **Estimated net return on margin if target fills:** **69.95%** after the specified deadband, scale haircut, and win fee
- **Confidence:** 0.61
- **Regime:** `trending_up` on the short horizon, with a weaker/mixed broader lookback
- **Key levels:** Support $81,530 (30-minute swing low); resistance $81,696 (recent 15-minute swing high)

## Evidence and calculations

At the fetch time, the latest 1m, 5m, and 15m candles were advancing and their short EMAs were aligned upward. The 1m price had risen about 39.5 bp over the preceding 60 completed minutes; the 5m close was about 44 bp above its close 12 bars earlier. On 15m candles, 12-bar change was about +61 bp, while the 30-bar change was about -38 bp, so the broader day-scale context is not uniformly bullish. The 1m close was above its 5/9/20 EMAs ($81,653 / $81,642 / $81,622); 5m 5/9/20 EMAs were also rising and ordered upward ($81,631 / $81,593 / $81,506).

Realized standard deviation of 1m log returns over the last 15, 30, and 60 completed candles was approximately 3.10, 3.64, and 4.21 bp per minute, respectively. The 60-minute high-low span was 48.2 bp. Individual recent 1m candles included adverse open-to-extreme wicks above 8 bp, which is close to this position's 8.02 bp bust distance; this makes the liquidation risk substantial even with the short-term momentum signal.

A simple retrospective barrier check entered at each of 30 successive completed 1m closes and inspected the next 30 candles' highs/lows for the proposed long's +12 bp target versus -8.02 bp bust. The target was observed first in 19 cases and the bust first in 11; for the same short setup the counts were 7 and 23. These overlapping, in-sample windows use candle extremes rather than the unknown intrabar path, and are descriptive evidence only, not a reliable probability estimate. The latest 10 prints had a small sell-side volume excess (0.05873 BTC vs 0.04177 BTC buys), while the displayed top 20 book levels had about 63.12 BTC bid size versus 35.80 BTC ask size; this snapshot is shallow and transient. Current funding was +0.0000125 per hour (longs pay), and mark price was about 3.9 bp below oracle; neither is a strong directional signal for a short holding period.

At 12 bp, after the 0.2 bp deadband, the specified scale is approximately 0.7755. Applying the 2% win fee and 780x leverage gives `(12 − 0.2) × 0.7755 × 0.98 × 780 / 100 ≈ 69.95%` return on margin if the take-profit executes. The target is 1.50 times the estimated bust distance, leaving room for price noise while retaining a materially larger favorable move than the heavily taxed micro-targets. A wider target could improve the win payout but would need a larger continuation beyond the nearby $81,696 resistance; higher leverage would further narrow the already-tested adverse room.

## Uncertainty and limits

The most recent 1m candle was still forming at fetch time. EMA and immediate momentum readings use its partial value; realized volatility and the 30-window barrier comparison use completed 1m candles. The barrier comparison cannot tell which level was hit first when both lie within one candle, although no such double-hit candle occurred in this small sample. Book levels, recent prints, funding, and asset context are snapshots; order flow can change immediately. No separate macro calendar, news, or liquidation-heatmap query was made, so scheduled-event risk and external flow are unassessed. The bust, target, and return are estimates under the user-provided PaperTrade mechanics, not a guarantee of execution or profit.

## Source attribution

The market figures above come from direct POST requests to `https://api.hyperliquid.xyz/info` at the stated UTC time: `candleSnapshot` for BTC 1m/5m/15m, `metaAndAssetCtxs`, `l2Book` with `nSigFigs: 5`, and `recentTrades`. Hyperliquid's official documentation describes these Info API methods in the [Info endpoint documentation](https://hyperliquid.gitbook.io/Hyperliquid-docs/for-developers/api/info-endpoint); the context fields are described in [Perpetuals API documentation](https://hyperliquid.gitbook.io/Hyperliquid-docs/for-developers/api/info-endpoint/perpetuals). The leverage, liquidation adjustment, win-impact formula, and PaperTrade execution assumptions are supplied in the task brief and have not been independently verified.