{"item": "b", "blocked": null, "code": "// SPDX-License-Identifier: MIT\npragma solidity ^0.8.24;\n\nimport {AMMStrategyBase} from \"./AMMStrategyBase.sol\";\nimport {TradeInfo} from \"./IAMMStrategy.sol\";\n\ncontract Strategy is AMMStrategyBase {\n    uint256 constant ELAPSED_CAP = 8;\n    uint256 constant SIGNAL_THRESHOLD = WAD / 650;\n    uint256 constant DIR_DECAY = 750000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant ACT_DECAY = 530000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant SIZE_DECAY = 530000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant TOX_DECAY = 910000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant SIGMA_DECAY = 690000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant LAMBDA_DECAY = 990000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant SIZE_BLEND_DECAY = 828000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant TOX_BLEND_DECAY = 51000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant ACT_BLEND_DECAY = 985000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant PHAT_ALPHA = 270000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant PHAT_ALPHA_RETAIL = 60000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant PHAT_ALPHA_SAME = 120000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant REVERT_U = 0;\n    uint256 constant DIR_IMPACT_MULT = 4;\n    uint256 constant GATE_SIGMA_MULT = 7200000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant MIN_GATE = 30000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant TRADE_TOX_BOOST = 3500 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant STALE_ATTRACT_FRAC = 1050000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant RET_CAP = WAD / 35;\n    uint256 constant TOX_CAP = WAD / 5;\n    uint256 constant TRADE_RATIO_CAP = WAD / 5;\n    uint256 constant LAMBDA_CAP = 1820000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant STEP_COUNT_CAP = 64;\n    uint256 constant BASE_FEE = 4 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant SIGMA_COEF = 200000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant LAMBDA_COEF = 12 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant FLOW_SIZE_COEF = 4842 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant TOX_COEF = 300 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant TOX_QUAD_COEF = 15000 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant ACT_COEF = 91843 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant DIR_COEF = 20 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant DIR_TOX_COEF = 100 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant STALE_DIR_COEF = 6850 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant SIGMA_TOX_COEF = 500 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant TAIL_KNEE = 600 * BPS;\n    uint256 constant TAIL_SLOPE_PROTECT = 930000000000000000;\n    uint256 constant TAIL_SLOPE_ATTRACT = 850000000000000000;\n\n    function afterInitialize(uint256 initialX, uint256 initialY) external override returns (uint256, uint256) {\n        slots[0] = BASE_FEE; slots[1] = BASE_FEE; slots[3] = WAD; \n        slots[5] = initialX > 0 ? wdiv(initialY, initialX) : 100 * WAD;\n        slots[6] = 950000000000000; slots[7] = 800000000000000000; slots[8] = 2000000000000000;\n        slots[15] = 400000000000000000 | (uint256(2000000000000000) << 160); slots[13] = 902500000000; slots[14] = slots[5]; \n        return (BASE_FEE, BASE_FEE);\n    }\n\n    function afterSwap(TradeInfo calldata trade) external override returns (uint256, uint256) {\n        uint256 prevBidFee = slots[0]; uint256 prevAskFee = slots[1]; uint256 lastTs = uint64(slots[2]);\n        uint256 dirState = slots[3]; uint256 actEma = slots[4]; uint256 pHat = slots[5];\n        uint256 sigmaHat = slots[6]; uint256 lambdaHat = slots[7]; uint256 sizeHat = slots[8];\n        uint256 toxEma = slots[9]; uint256 stepTradeCount = slots[10];\n\n        uint256 sigmaForFast = sigmaHat;\n        uint256 fastHat = slots[14];\n        uint256 uncertainty = slots[13];\n        uint256 silent = trade.timestamp > lastTs ? trade.timestamp - lastTs : 0;\n        bool isNewStep = trade.timestamp > lastTs;\n        if (isNewStep) {\n            uint256 elapsedRaw = trade.timestamp - lastTs;\n            uint256 elapsed = elapsedRaw > ELAPSED_CAP ? ELAPSED_CAP : elapsedRaw;\n            dirState = _decayCentered(dirState, DIR_DECAY, elapsed);\n            actEma = wmul(actEma, _powWad(ACT_DECAY, elapsed));\n            sizeHat = wmul(sizeHat, _powWad(SIZE_DECAY, elapsed));\n            toxEma = wmul(toxEma, _powWad(TOX_DECAY, elapsed));\n            if (stepTradeCount > 0 && elapsedRaw > 0) {\n                uint256 lambdaInst = (stepTradeCount * WAD) / elapsedRaw;\n                if (lambdaInst > LAMBDA_CAP) lambdaInst = LAMBDA_CAP;\n                lambdaHat = wmul(lambdaHat, LAMBDA_DECAY) + wmul(lambdaInst, WAD - LAMBDA_DECAY);\n            }\n            // Process variance is propagated inside the censored update.\n            if (uncertainty > 100000000000000) uncertainty = 100000000000000;\n            stepTradeCount = 0;\n        }\n\n        bool firstInStep = stepTradeCount == 0;\n        uint256 spot = trade.reserveX > 0 ? wdiv(trade.reserveY, trade.reserveX) : pHat;\n        if (pHat == 0) pHat = spot;\n\n        uint256 feeUsed = trade.isBuy ? prevBidFee : prevAskFee;\n        uint256 gamma = feeUsed < WAD ? WAD - feeUsed : 0;\n        uint256 pImplied;\n        if (gamma == 0) { pImplied = spot; }\n        else { pImplied = trade.isBuy ? wmul(spot, gamma) : wdiv(spot, gamma); }\n\n        // S: infer a no-trade interval center from the last post-trade spot.\n        uint256 silenceScale = WAD;\n        if (firstInStep && silent > 1) {\n            uint256 g = silent - 1;\n            if (g > 1) g = 1;\n            uint256 w = WAD - _powWad(800000000000000000, g);\n            uint256 s = slots[2] >> 64;\n            if (s == 0) s = pHat;\n            uint256 c = (wmul(s, WAD - prevBidFee) + wdiv(s, WAD - prevAskFee)) / 2;\n            if (c >= pHat) pHat += wmul(w, c - pHat);\n            else pHat -= wmul(w, pHat - c);\n            silenceScale = WAD - wmul(300000000000000000, w);\n        }\n\n        {\n            uint256 ret = pHat > 0 ? wdiv(absDiff(pImplied, pHat), pHat) : 0;\n            uint256 alpha = firstInStep ? PHAT_ALPHA : PHAT_ALPHA_RETAIL;\n            uint256 prePhat = pHat;\n            bool secondPrint = !firstInStep && stepTradeCount == 1;\n            bool sameDir = false; bool oppDir = false;\n            if (secondPrint) {\n                bool up2 = pImplied >= pHat;\n                uint256 d1 = slots[12];\n                if (d1 != 0) { sameDir = (d1 == 1) == up2; oppDir = !sameDir; }\n                if (sameDir) alpha = PHAT_ALPHA_SAME;\n            }\n            if (firstInStep) { slots[12] = pImplied >= pHat ? 1 : 2; }\n            uint256 adaptiveGate = wmul(sigmaHat, GATE_SIGMA_MULT);\n            if (adaptiveGate < MIN_GATE) adaptiveGate = MIN_GATE;\n            alpha = wmul(alpha, silenceScale);\n            adaptiveGate = wmul(adaptiveGate, silenceScale);\n            if (ret <= adaptiveGate) { pHat = wmul(pHat, WAD - alpha) + wmul(pImplied, alpha); }\n            if (oppDir && REVERT_U > 0) {\n                uint256 pre = slots[11];\n                if (pre > pHat) pHat = pHat + wmul(pre - pHat, REVERT_U);\n                else pHat = pHat - wmul(pHat - pre, REVERT_U);\n            }\n            if (firstInStep) {\n                if (ret > RET_CAP) ret = RET_CAP;\n                sigmaHat = wmul(sigmaHat, SIGMA_DECAY) + wmul(ret, WAD - SIGMA_DECAY);\n            }\n        }\n\n        // Interior retail routing equalizes fee-adjusted marginal prices.\n        // Subsequent trades in a step cannot be the initial arbitrage trade.\n        if (!firstInStep && feeUsed > 30 * BPS && gamma > 0) {\n            uint256 normalSpot = trade.isBuy\n                ? wdiv(wmul(spot, gamma), WAD - 30 * BPS)\n                : wdiv(wmul(spot, WAD - 30 * BPS), gamma);\n            pHat = wmul(pHat, 90 * WAD / 100) + wmul(normalSpot, 10 * WAD / 100);\n        }\n\n        // Censored assumed-density posterior. No external or future inputs.\n        uint256 arbProbability;\n        (fastHat, uncertainty, arbProbability) = _posterior(PosteriorInput(\n            fastHat, uncertainty, pImplied, spot, slots[2] >> 64,\n            prevBidFee, prevAskFee, firstInStep, silent, trade.isBuy,\n            trade.reserveY > 0 ? wdiv(trade.amountY, trade.reserveY) : 0\n        ));\n        slots[13] = uncertainty;\n        slots[14] = fastHat;\n        uint256 tradeRatio = trade.reserveY > 0 ? wdiv(trade.amountY, trade.reserveY) : 0;\n        if (tradeRatio > TRADE_RATIO_CAP) tradeRatio = TRADE_RATIO_CAP;\n\n        if (tradeRatio > SIGNAL_THRESHOLD) {\n            uint256 push = tradeRatio * DIR_IMPACT_MULT;\n            if (push > WAD / 4) push = WAD / 4;\n            if (trade.isBuy) {\n                dirState = dirState + push;\n                if (dirState > 2 * WAD) dirState = 2 * WAD;\n            } else {\n                dirState = dirState > push ? dirState - push : 0;\n            }\n            actEma = wmul(actEma, ACT_BLEND_DECAY) + wmul(tradeRatio, WAD - ACT_BLEND_DECAY);\n            sizeHat = wmul(sizeHat, SIZE_BLEND_DECAY) + wmul(tradeRatio, WAD - SIZE_BLEND_DECAY);\n            if (sizeHat > WAD) sizeHat = WAD;\n        }\n\n        uint256 tox = pHat > 0 ? wdiv(absDiff(spot, pHat), pHat) : 0;\n        if (tox > TOX_CAP) tox = TOX_CAP;\n        toxEma = wmul(toxEma, TOX_BLEND_DECAY) + wmul(tox, WAD - TOX_BLEND_DECAY);\n        uint256 toxSignal = toxEma;\n\n        stepTradeCount = stepTradeCount + 1;\n        if (stepTradeCount > STEP_COUNT_CAP) stepTradeCount = STEP_COUNT_CAP;\n\n        uint256 originalLambda = lambdaHat; uint256 originalSize = sizeHat;\n\n        if (30907100771999836 > 0) {\n            uint256 packedFlow = slots[15];\n            uint256 rate = uint80(packedFlow);\n            uint256 count = uint80(packedFlow >> 80);\n            uint256 meanSize = uint80(packedFlow >> 160);\n            if (rate == 0) rate = 400000000000000000;\n            if (meanSize == 0) meanSize = 2000000000000000;\n            if (isNewStep) {\n                uint256 inst = count / silent;\n                if (inst > 3 * WAD) inst = 3 * WAD;\n                uint256 retention = _powWad(988107891516014080, silent > 64 ? 64 : silent);\n                rate = wmul(rate, retention) + wmul(inst, WAD-retention);\n                count = 0;\n            }\n            uint256 weight = firstInStep ? WAD-arbProbability : WAD;\n            uint256 correctedWeight = weight;\n            if (2 == 2) {\n                uint256 missing = wmul(feeUsed, 390667358943637864448);\n                if (missing > 221876452392750336) missing = 221876452392750336;\n                correctedWeight = wdiv(weight, WAD-missing);\n            }\n            count += correctedWeight;\n            uint256 learning = wmul(WAD-988107891516014080, weight);\n            meanSize = _blend(meanSize, tradeRatio, learning);\n            slots[15]=rate | (count << 80) | (meanSize << 160);\n            uint256 retailRate = wmul(rate, 538920706456641472);\n            uint256 retailSize = 2 == 0 ? sizeHat : wmul(meanSize,425754518623272960);\n            lambdaHat = _blend(lambdaHat,retailRate,30907100771999836);\n            sizeHat = _blend(sizeHat,retailSize,30907100771999836);\n        }\n        uint256 flowSize = wmul(lambdaHat, sizeHat);\n        uint256 fBase = BASE_FEE + wmul(SIGMA_COEF, sigmaHat) + wmul(LAMBDA_COEF, lambdaHat) + wmul(FLOW_SIZE_COEF, flowSize);\n        uint256 fMid = fBase + wmul(TOX_COEF, toxSignal) + wmul(TOX_QUAD_COEF, wmul(toxSignal, toxSignal)) + wmul(ACT_COEF, actEma);\n        fMid = fMid + wmul(SIGMA_TOX_COEF, wmul(sigmaHat, toxSignal));\n\n        lambdaHat = originalLambda; sizeHat = originalSize;\n        uint256 dirDev; bool sellPressure;\n        if (dirState >= WAD) { dirDev = dirState - WAD; sellPressure = true; }\n        else { dirDev = WAD - dirState; sellPressure = false; }\n\n        uint256 skew = wmul(DIR_COEF, dirDev) + wmul(DIR_TOX_COEF, wmul(dirDev, toxSignal));\n        uint256 bidFee; uint256 askFee;\n        if (sellPressure) {\n            bidFee = fMid + skew;\n            askFee = fMid > skew ? fMid - skew : 0;\n        } else {\n            askFee = fMid + skew;\n            bidFee = fMid > skew ? fMid - skew : 0;\n        }\n\n        {\n            uint256 staleHat = wmul(pHat, 700000000000000000) + wmul(fastHat, 300000000000000000);\n            uint256 staleTox = wdiv(absDiff(spot, staleHat), staleHat);\n            if (staleTox > TOX_CAP) staleTox = TOX_CAP;\n            uint256 staleShift = wmul(STALE_DIR_COEF, staleTox);\n            uint256 attractShift = wmul(staleShift, STALE_ATTRACT_FRAC);\n            if (spot >= staleHat) {\n                bidFee = bidFee + staleShift;\n                askFee = askFee > attractShift ? askFee - attractShift : 0;\n            } else {\n                askFee = askFee + staleShift;\n                bidFee = bidFee > attractShift ? bidFee - attractShift : 0;\n            }\n        }\n\n        {\n            bool tradeAligned = (trade.isBuy && spot >= pHat) || (!trade.isBuy && spot < pHat);\n            if (tradeAligned) {\n                uint256 tradeBoost = wmul(TRADE_TOX_BOOST, tradeRatio);\n                if (!firstInStep && tradeBoost > 16 * BPS) tradeBoost = 16 * BPS;\n                if (trade.isBuy) { bidFee = bidFee + tradeBoost; }\n                else { askFee = askFee + tradeBoost; }\n            }\n        }\n\n        if (sellPressure) {\n            bidFee = clampFee(_compressTailWithSlope(bidFee, TAIL_SLOPE_PROTECT));\n            askFee = clampFee(_compressTailWithSlope(askFee, TAIL_SLOPE_ATTRACT));\n        } else {\n            askFee = clampFee(_compressTailWithSlope(askFee, TAIL_SLOPE_PROTECT));\n            bidFee = clampFee(_compressTailWithSlope(bidFee, TAIL_SLOPE_ATTRACT));\n        }\n\n        if (firstInStep) {\n            if (askFee > bidFee && bidFee > 30 * BPS) bidFee = 30 * BPS;\n            else if (bidFee > askFee && askFee > 30 * BPS) askFee = 30 * BPS;\n        }\n\n        if (bidFee > askFee && askFee > 36 * BPS) askFee = 36 * BPS;\n        else if (askFee > bidFee && bidFee > 36 * BPS) bidFee = 36 * BPS;\n\n        slots[0] = bidFee; slots[1] = askFee; slots[2] = (spot << 64) | trade.timestamp;\n        slots[3] = dirState; slots[4] = actEma; slots[5] = pHat;\n        slots[6] = sigmaHat; slots[7] = lambdaHat; slots[8] = sizeHat;\n        slots[9] = toxEma; slots[10] = stepTradeCount;\n\n        return (bidFee, askFee);\n    }\n\n\n    struct PosteriorInput {\n        uint256 mu; uint256 v; uint256 obs; uint256 spot; uint256 preSpot;\n        uint256 bid; uint256 ask; bool first; uint256 silent; bool buy; uint256 size;\n    }\n    function _posterior(PosteriorInput memory x) internal pure returns (uint256, uint256, uint256) {\n        if (x.mu == 0) x.mu = x.spot;\n        if (x.v < 10000000000) x.v = 10000000000;\n        uint256 lo = wmul(x.preSpot, WAD-x.bid);\n        uint256 hi = wdiv(x.preSpot, WAD-x.ask);\n        if (x.first) {\n            if (x.silent>1 && x.preSpot>0) {\n                uint256 elapsed=x.silent>8?8:x.silent;\n                x.v += 902500000000*(elapsed-1);\n                (x.mu,x.v)=_band(x.mu,x.v,lo,hi);\n            }\n            x.v+=902500000000;\n        }\n        uint256 mRetail = x.mu;\n        uint256 vRetail = x.v;\n        // A missing own-pool trade is a censored price observation.\n        if (x.first && x.preSpot > 0) {\n            (mRetail, vRetail) = _band(x.mu, x.v, lo, hi);\n        }\n        if (!x.first) {\n            // A later print is retail. Only an interior route is an observation\n            // of the other pool, with explicit observation uncertainty.\n            uint256 fee = x.buy ? x.bid : x.ask;\n            if (fee > 30 * BPS) {\n                uint256 normal = x.buy ? wdiv(wmul(x.spot, WAD-fee), WAD-30*BPS)\n                    : wdiv(wmul(x.spot, WAD-30*BPS), WAD-fee);\n                uint256 residual = wdiv(absDiff(normal, x.mu),x.mu);\n                uint256 noise = 9000000000000 + wmul(residual,residual);\n                uint256 k = wdiv(x.v,x.v+noise);\n                return (_blend(x.mu,normal,k),wmul(x.v,WAD-k),0);\n            }\n            return (x.mu,x.v,0);\n        }\n        uint256 e = wdiv(absDiff(x.obs,x.mu),x.mu);\n        uint256 totalV = x.v + 22500000000;\n        uint256 z = wdiv(wmul(e,e),totalV);\n        uint256 density = _powWad(wdiv(WAD,WAD+z/8),4);\n        uint256 odds = wmul(density,wdiv(4000000000000000,_isqrt(totalV*WAD)));\n        if (x.size > 3000000000000000) odds = wmul(odds,4*WAD/10);\n        if (x.silent > 1) odds = wmul(odds,8*WAD/10);\n        uint256 sd = _isqrt(x.v*WAD);\n        uint256 width = wdiv(hi-lo,x.mu);\n        uint256 distance = x.mu<lo?lo-x.mu:(x.mu>hi?x.mu-hi:0);\n        uint256 zBand = wdiv(wdiv(distance,x.mu),sd);\n        uint256 mass = wmul(wdiv(width,width+2*sd),wdiv(WAD,WAD+wmul(zBand,zBand)));\n        if (mass < WAD/100) mass = WAD/100;\n        odds = wdiv(odds,mass);\n        uint256 prob = wdiv(odds,WAD+odds);\n        uint256 kArb = wdiv(x.v,totalV);\n        uint256 mArb = _blend(x.mu,x.obs,kArb);\n        uint256 mean = _blend(mRetail,mArb,prob);\n        uint256 between = wdiv(absDiff(mArb,mRetail),x.mu);\n        uint256 variance = wmul(prob,wmul(x.v,WAD-kArb)) + wmul(WAD-prob,vRetail)\n            + wmul(wmul(prob,WAD-prob),wmul(between,between));\n        if (variance > 100000000000000) variance = 100000000000000;\n        return (mean,variance,prob);\n    }\n    function _blend(uint256 a,uint256 b,uint256 w) internal pure returns(uint256) {\n        return b>=a ? a+wmul(b-a,w) : a-wmul(a-b,w);\n    }\n    function _band(uint256 mu,uint256 v,uint256 lo,uint256 hi) internal pure returns(uint256,uint256) {\n        // Soft interval likelihood avoids discontinuities at quadrature nodes.\n        uint256 sd=wmul(mu,_isqrt(v*WAD));\n        uint256[3] memory acc;\n        for(uint256 j=0;j<7;j++) {\n            uint256 p=j<3 ? (mu>(3-j)*sd?mu-(3-j)*sd:1) : mu+(j-3)*sd;\n            uint256 w=j==3?72:(j==2||j==4?45:(j==1||j==5?10:1));\n            uint256 distance=p<lo?lo-p:(p>hi?p-hi:0);\n            uint256 z=sd>0?wdiv(distance,sd):0;\n            uint256 likelihood=wdiv(WAD,WAD+4*wmul(z,z));\n            w=wmul(w*WAD,likelihood);\n            acc[0]+=w;acc[1]+=wmul(w,p);\n            uint256 d=wdiv(absDiff(p,mu),mu);\n            acc[2]+=wmul(w,wmul(d,d));\n        }\n        uint256 m=wdiv(acc[1],acc[0]);\n        uint256 d=wdiv(absDiff(m,mu),mu);\n        uint256 second=wdiv(acc[2],acc[0]);\n        return(m,second>wmul(d,d)?second-wmul(d,d):10000000000);\n    }\n\n    function _compressTailWithSlope(uint256 fee, uint256 slope) internal pure returns (uint256) {\n        if (fee <= TAIL_KNEE) return fee;\n        return TAIL_KNEE + wmul(fee - TAIL_KNEE, slope);\n    }\n\n    function _powWad(uint256 factor, uint256 exp) internal pure returns (uint256 result) {\n        result = WAD;\n        while (exp > 0) {\n            if (exp & 1 == 1) result = wmul(result, factor);\n            factor = wmul(factor, factor);\n            exp >>= 1;\n        }\n    }\n\n    function _decayCentered(uint256 centered, uint256 decayFactor, uint256 elapsed) internal pure returns (uint256) {\n        uint256 mul = _powWad(decayFactor, elapsed);\n        if (centered >= WAD) { return WAD + wmul(centered - WAD, mul); }\n        uint256 below = wmul(WAD - centered, mul);\n        return below < WAD ? WAD - below : 0;\n    }\n\n    // Floor square root: bit-length seed and seven Newton steps (all uint256).\n    function _isqrt(uint256 x) internal pure returns (uint256 r) {\n        if (x == 0) return 0;\n        unchecked {\n            uint256 y = x;\n            r = 1;\n            if (y >> 128 != 0) { y >>= 128; r <<= 64; }\n            if (y >> 64 != 0) { y >>= 64; r <<= 32; }\n            if (y >> 32 != 0) { y >>= 32; r <<= 16; }\n            if (y >> 16 != 0) { y >>= 16; r <<= 8; }\n            if (y >> 8 != 0) { y >>= 8; r <<= 4; }\n            if (y >> 4 != 0) { y >>= 4; r <<= 2; }\n            if (y >> 2 != 0) { r <<= 1; }\n            r = (r + x / r) >> 1;\n            r = (r + x / r) >> 1;\n            r = (r + x / r) >> 1;\n            r = (r + x / r) >> 1;\n            r = (r + x / r) >> 1;\n            r = (r + x / r) >> 1;\n            r = (r + x / r) >> 1;\n            uint256 t = x / r;\n            return r < t ? r : t;\n        }\n    }\n\n    function getName() external pure override returns (string memory) { return \"censored_10\"; }\n}\n", "sha256": "524be30b0303cdd51112b4986ffbde8954e623b28e0e62cd01f56f50917b9630", "params": [2, 0.0309, 0.9881, 0.5389, 0.4258, 390.6674, 1.2851], "params_exact": [2, 0.030907100771999835, 0.9881078915160141, 0.5389207064566415, 0.42575451862327296, 390.66735894363785, 1.2851429610053908], "parameter_names": ["structure (0=count,2=bounded correction)", "mix", "retention_per_step", "rate_scale", "size_scale", "quote_correction_slope", "correction_cap (max weight multiplier; missing<=1-1/cap)"], "log": [{"id": "c0", "params": [2, 0.0, 0.9629158355818368, 0.02, 1.1921154007005819, 541.2071879175222, 1.05], "sha256": "ab51ba6bd28bc2cdf837ad6dd24fd3f2442f6f5ff7b82033a69c7e807e19e8aa", "block": [810000, 810063], "n": 64, "mean_diff": 0.0, "se": 0.0, "max_ok": 194861, "init_max_ok": 220981, "oog": 0, "other_halts": 0}, {"id": "c1", "params": [2, 0.5972785545454844, 0.9999, 0.04860162552772705, 1.105257101909152, 308.6302174308946, 4.0323527319511925], "sha256": "ec2fb75fa7e9ba8273d1553bf2403e8b941b2797fd5912da058a53840c62c13b", "block": [810000, 810063], "n": 64, "mean_diff": -5.136268964161744, "se": 0.19998347643172668, "max_ok": 202468, "init_max_ok": 243099, "oog": 0, "other_halts": 0}, {"id": "c2", "params": [2, 0.9, 0.9999, 1.7912787680896594, 1.3834725187435224, 5.0, 1.05], "sha256": "c5c60a6d257bf8d410aedb8406e5b46a08ddf7e8159ed9cb8289a04d32919ab3", "block": [810000, 810063], "n": 64, "mean_diff": -4.797122287933161, "se": 0.23349925215739617, "max_ok": 202468, "init_max_ok": 243099, "oog": 0, "other_halts": 0}, {"id": "c3", "params": [2, 0.030907100771999835, 0.9881078915160141, 0.5389207064566415, 0.42575451862327296, 390.66735894363785, 1.2851429610053908], "sha256": "524be30b0303cdd51112b4986ffbde8954e623b28e0e62cd01f56f50917b9630", "block": [810000, 810063], "n": 64, "mean_diff": 0.00029910546910283387, "se": 0.030929220558389876, "max_ok": 202468, "init_max_ok": 243099, "oog": 0, "other_halts": 0}, {"id": "c5", "params": [2, 0.8386193954194382, 0.9816668236305973, 1.429084883041327, 3.4631301662215828, 5.0, 4.316782652939789], "sha256": "e4c654f0edb3fb378f7b20ad0de7f3d5818e3fa2810a3123cbde4f85d468def4", "block": [810000, 810063], "n": 64, "mean_diff": -9.499838129675737, "se": 0.4072202485894439, "max_ok": 202468, "init_max_ok": 243099, "oog": 0, "other_halts": 0}, {"id": "c7", "params": [2, 0.1466848747288009, 0.9999, 1.7092880730469773, 3.9191069874335027, 434.6412211009267, 5.449645828841753], "sha256": "21559c7cc546279aeee83953461a70832b5a3b06f23779c1a9cb45d9f024973a", "block": [810000, 810063], "n": 64, "mean_diff": -4.121252375934536, "se": 0.2115404344926144, "max_ok": 202468, "init_max_ok": 243099, "oog": 0, "other_halts": 0}, {"id": "c8", "params": [2, 0.9, 0.9999, 1.1541423537862818, 2.529548277648695, 327.54560029918713, 3.2998648632508214], "sha256": "e8f621e2a67ac9e93691c1fc7f5f4676261dc59156bc6f73ce107d164a78a8de", "block": [810000, 810063], "n": 64, "mean_diff": -13.695989382197022, "se": 0.44228136439235166, "max_ok": 202468, "init_max_ok": 243099, "oog": 0, "other_halts": 0}], "not_evaluated": {"c4": [2, 0.16901250890827185, 0.9760642964147366, 2.172878740870816, 2.07113962582867, 5.0, 1.05], "c6": [2, 0.2861301234514335, 0.966508666209597, 0.02, 2.505890461784086, 285.22428885000426, 2.387196976121919], "c9": [2, 0.0, 0.9892957628891813, 0.8025273608256905, 0.3, 5.0, 4.803678925658489]}, "recheck": null, "held_out": {"seeds": {"first": 815000, "last": 815031, "n": 32}, "vs_v10": {"n": 32, "mean_diff": -0.012713811879327963, "se": 0.035763088193880924, "worst": [{"seed": 815031, "d": -0.46968835465980874}, {"seed": 815008, "d": -0.397314651224292}, {"seed": 815021, "d": -0.309121025759282}, {"seed": 815028, "d": -0.21887236109296282}, {"seed": 815009, "d": -0.1725680001859473}], "retail_edge_delta": {"mean": 0.3015620892987485, "se": 0.03765795836838671}, "arb_edge_delta": {"mean": -0.3142759011780666, "se": 0.01483353429573684}}, "vs_rs2": {"n": 32, "mean_diff": -0.07650722121131892, "se": 0.07148103906212343, "worst": [{"seed": 815004, "d": -0.9030639916093719}, {"seed": 815011, "d": -0.8659583240116149}, {"seed": 815017, "d": -0.6524110539746744}, {"seed": 815030, "d": -0.5019593238864672}, {"seed": 815026, "d": -0.4772089814296123}], "retail_edge_delta": {"mean": -1.1171882613668789, "se": 0.08520712606940471}, "arb_edge_delta": {"mean": 1.0406810401555553, "se": 0.04423071856946559}}, "rs2_vs_v10": {"n": 32, "mean_diff": 0.06379340933199096, "se": 0.0821475371690411, "worst": [{"seed": 815015, "d": -1.0056577397226647}, {"seed": 815021, "d": -0.821994501498466}, {"seed": 815031, "d": -0.5520407131348293}, {"seed": 815002, "d": -0.5350725355684744}, {"seed": 815014, "d": -0.3909431971799222}], "retail_edge_delta": {"mean": 1.4187503506656274, "se": 0.09373011280099623}, "arb_edge_delta": {"mean": -1.3549569413336218, "se": 0.05009824475141116}}, "arm_gas": {"c3": {"sha256": "524be30b0303cdd51112b4986ffbde8954e623b28e0e62cd01f56f50917b9630", "max_ok": 197298, "init_max_ok": 243099, "oog": 0, "other_halts": 0}, "RS2": {"sha256": "f24b6ca198b744c380842c3a17964a6dc21f311bb04984b26733afa3fee8eaf2", "max_ok": 197288, "init_max_ok": 243099, "oog": 0, "other_halts": 0}, "V10": {"sha256": "cd9bdb45ab0537ad25c4fd90ca8618898cef6386de3df65f192eaef65fbca245", "max_ok": 190647, "init_max_ok": 220981, "oog": 0, "other_halts": 0}}}, "gas": {"max_ok": 202468, "init_max_ok": 243099, "oog": 0, "other_halts": 0}, "checks": {"rs2_sha256_verified": true, "v10_sha256_verified": true, "generator_at_params_exact_gives_rs2_sha256": true, "mix0_parity": {"seeds": [816000, 816031], "n": 32, "max_abs_diff_vs_v10": 0.0, "zero_mix_sha256": "edb266858c14047a4ba073f716bac92a156502852dec1ea8b842de5a44200431"}, "frozen_amm_match_validate": "passed", "CH_calibration": "not run (1000 seeds would take ~35 min at this machine's ~0.5 seed-runs/s)"}, "generator_source": "def generate(base,p):\n kind,mix,decay,scale,sscale,correction=p\n mix=int(mix*1e18);decay=int(decay*1e18)\n s=base.replace('(fastHat, uncertainty) = _posterior','uint256 arbProbability;\\n        (fastHat, uncertainty, arbProbability) = _posterior')\n s=s.replace('internal pure returns (uint256, uint256) {\\n        if (x.mu', 'internal pure returns (uint256, uint256, uint256) {\\n        if (x.mu')\n s=s.replace('wmul(x.v,WAD-k));','wmul(x.v,WAD-k),0);').replace('return (x.mu,x.v);','return (x.mu,x.v,0);').replace('return (mean,variance);','return (mean,variance,prob);')\n insert=f'''\n        if ({mix} > 0) {{\n            uint256 packedFlow = slots[15];\n            uint256 rate = uint80(packedFlow);\n            uint256 count = uint80(packedFlow >> 80);\n            uint256 meanSize = uint80(packedFlow >> 160);\n            if (rate == 0) rate = 400000000000000000;\n            if (meanSize == 0) meanSize = 2000000000000000;\n            if (isNewStep) {{\n                uint256 inst = count / silent;\n                if (inst > 3 * WAD) inst = 3 * WAD;\n                uint256 retention = _powWad({decay}, silent > 64 ? 64 : silent);\n                rate = wmul(rate, retention) + wmul(inst, WAD-retention);\n                count = 0;\n            }}\n            uint256 weight = firstInStep ? WAD-arbProbability : WAD;\n            uint256 correctedWeight = weight;\n            if ({kind} == 2) {{\n                uint256 missing = wmul(feeUsed, {int(correction*1e18)});\n                if (missing > WAD/2) missing = WAD/2;\n                correctedWeight = wdiv(weight, WAD-missing);\n            }}\n            count += correctedWeight;\n            uint256 learning = wmul(WAD-{decay}, weight);\n            meanSize = _blend(meanSize, tradeRatio, learning);\n            slots[15]=rate | (count << 80) | (meanSize << 160);\n            uint256 retailRate = wmul(rate, {int(scale*1e18)});\n            uint256 retailSize = {kind} == 0 ? sizeHat : wmul(meanSize,{int(sscale*1e18)});\n            lambdaHat = _blend(lambdaHat,retailRate,{mix});\n            sizeHat = _blend(sizeHat,retailSize,{mix});\n        }}\n'''\n s=s.replace('        uint256 flowSize =', '        uint256 originalLambda = lambdaHat; uint256 originalSize = sizeHat;\\n'+insert+'        uint256 flowSize =')\n s=s.replace('        uint256 dirDev;', '        lambdaHat = originalLambda; sizeHat = originalSize;\\n        uint256 dirDev;')\n s=s.replace(\"slots[13] = 902500000000;\", \"slots[15] = 400000000000000000 | (uint256(2000000000000000) << 160); slots[13] = 902500000000;\") if mix else s\n return s\n\n# --- cap extension (7th parameter); cap==2.0 reproduces RS1 byte-for-byte ---\ndef generate7(base,p):\n    p=list(p); kind=int(round(p[0])); cap=float(p[6]) if len(p)>6 else 2.0\n    s=generate(base,[kind]+[float(x) for x in p[1:6]])\n    if cap!=2.0:\n        old='if (missing > WAD/2) missing = WAD/2;'\n        assert old in s or float(p[1])==0\n        m=int((1-1/cap)*1e18)\n        s=s.replace(old,f'if (missing > {m}) missing = {m};')\n    return s\n", "notes": ["INCOMPLETE vs brief, cut by machine throughput: the simulator ran ~1.4 s per seed per arm and multiprocessing gave ~0.5 seed-runs/s in total, so one CMA generation (11 arms x 64 seeds) took ~18 min of a ~110 min run.", "Done: CMA-ES generation 0 only (default_rng(22), sigma0 0.3, unit box, structure fixed 2, warm-start mean = RS2 params_exact, widened bounds per brief). 7 of 10 samples evaluated on block 810000..810063 against V10 run once on it; c4, c6, c9 not evaluated; no CMA update and no later generations; no -1000 penalties (no halts, afterSwap max 202468 < 235000, init max 243099 < 245000).", "Gen-0 samples at sigma 0.3 mostly hit bounds and lost 4 to 14 vs V10; c0 (mix clipped to 0) equals V10 exactly; c3 (mix 0.031) was best at +0.0003 (se 0.031) and was frozen. No re-check on 814000..814255 was run.", "Held-out cut to 32 seeds (815000..815031) instead of 512: frozen c3 vs V10 -0.013 (se 0.036), vs RS2 -0.077 (se 0.071); RS2 vs V10 +0.064 (se 0.082). None is significant. Retail/arb deltas from the V10 harness decomposition.", "Conclusion: nothing beats RS2 here; sigma0 0.3 on the wide box makes the first generation sample mostly bad corners. A full run needs ~10x this machine's throughput or a smaller sigma0. No board claim; all seeds < 5000000."]}