{
  "key": "d-oracle-sweep",
  "approach": "Measured the specified incumbent (SHA-256 bf0d179f3e47d28819f6fa7e0d25548c2ced43374c216d36460b00a26a26ffae) in the pinned simulator. After N submitted its ordinary actions and the latent process revealed that step's p, the oracle cancelled every participant order that upstream arbitrage would cross; the selective variant did so only when abs(next_p - prior_p) was at least 0.03 (three price ticks). Each oracle was paired with an unmodified N run on the same seed; retail_change and arb_change are oracle minus incumbent per run.",
  "tried": [
    "Verified the UTF-8 incumbent code SHA-256 against the requested hash.",
    "Compared an instrumented no-cancellation path with the unmodified upstream SimulationEngine for seeds 310000 through 310009: total, retail, and arbitrage edge each matched exactly on every seed.",
    "Verified the unmodified incumbent total edge on seed 310000 was 17.1160017503 (17.116002 rounded).",
    "Ran one OS process, default ChallengeConfig and ParameterVariance, 2,000 steps, for every seed 500500 through 500999; no run failed and no finalist seed was run."
  ],
  "complete": true,
  "first_seed": 500500,
  "last_seed": 500999,
  "n": 500,
  "incumbent_mean": 110.416726,
  "retail_mean": 134.455301,
  "arb_mean": -24.038575,
  "by_spread": {
    "1": {
      "runs": 132,
      "incumbent_mean": 64.631441,
      "retail_mean": 86.036003,
      "arb_mean": -21.404563,
      "cancel_all_swept": {
        "mean": 15.072063,
        "paired_gain": {"mean": -49.559378, "se": 11.022823},
        "retail_change": {"mean": -70.963940, "se": 13.008175},
        "arb_change": {"mean": 21.404563, "se": 3.939055}
      },
      "cancel_swept_on_move_3_ticks": {
        "mean": 67.852026,
        "paired_gain": {"mean": 3.220586, "se": 1.861126},
        "retail_change": {"mean": -1.001997, "se": 0.838360},
        "arb_change": {"mean": 4.222583, "se": 2.013778}
      }
    },
    "2": {
      "runs": 101,
      "incumbent_mean": 70.601625,
      "retail_mean": 97.834804,
      "arb_mean": -27.233179,
      "cancel_all_swept": {
        "mean": 43.813008,
        "paired_gain": {"mean": -26.788617, "se": 8.641459},
        "retail_change": {"mean": -54.021796, "se": 11.196570},
        "arb_change": {"mean": 27.233179, "se": 3.724277}
      },
      "cancel_swept_on_move_3_ticks": {
        "mean": 78.221562,
        "paired_gain": {"mean": 7.619936, "se": 2.000953},
        "retail_change": {"mean": 0.070691, "se": 0.054190},
        "arb_change": {"mean": 7.549246, "se": 2.003301}
      }
    },
    "3": {
      "runs": 131,
      "incumbent_mean": 133.836861,
      "retail_mean": 154.518838,
      "arb_mean": -20.681977,
      "cancel_all_swept": {
        "mean": 74.818927,
        "paired_gain": {"mean": -59.017933, "se": 15.697942},
        "retail_change": {"mean": -79.699910, "se": 16.483451},
        "arb_change": {"mean": 20.681977, "se": 1.903233}
      },
      "cancel_swept_on_move_3_ticks": {
        "mean": 142.823462,
        "paired_gain": {"mean": 8.986601, "se": 1.192597},
        "retail_change": {"mean": -0.007282, "se": 0.018450},
        "arb_change": {"mean": 8.993883, "se": 1.193839}
      }
    },
    "4": {
      "runs": 136,
      "incumbent_mean": 161.864852,
      "retail_mean": 189.320699,
      "arb_mean": -27.455847,
      "cancel_all_swept": {
        "mean": 120.446930,
        "paired_gain": {"mean": -41.417923, "se": 11.096357},
        "retail_change": {"mean": -68.873769, "se": 10.784759},
        "arb_change": {"mean": 27.455847, "se": 4.411177}
      },
      "cancel_swept_on_move_3_ticks": {
        "mean": 179.007839,
        "paired_gain": {"mean": 17.142987, "se": 4.137725},
        "retail_change": {"mean": -0.199460, "se": 0.245423},
        "arb_change": {"mean": 17.342447, "se": 4.136939}
      }
    },
    "all": {
      "runs": 500,
      "incumbent_mean": 110.416726,
      "retail_mean": 134.455301,
      "arb_mean": -24.038575,
      "cancel_all_swept": {
        "mean": 65.193376,
        "paired_gain": {"mean": -45.223350, "se": 6.130255},
        "retail_change": {"mean": -69.261925, "se": 6.637755},
        "arb_change": {"mean": 24.038575, "se": 1.826493}
      },
      "cancel_swept_on_move_3_ticks": {
        "mean": 119.823570,
        "paired_gain": {"mean": 9.406844, "se": 1.346605},
        "retail_change": {"mean": -0.306409, "se": 0.231632},
        "arb_change": {"mean": 9.713252, "se": 1.360160}
      }
    }
  },
  "finding": "Spread 2's missed edge is the selective oracle's +7.619936 +/- 2.000953 total edge/run, almost entirely +7.549246 +/- 2.003301 arbitrage change with +0.070691 +/- 0.054190 retail change; cancelling every crossed order instead loses 26.788617 +/- 8.641459 by giving up 54.021796 +/- 11.196570 retail edge. Spread 3 shows the same focused opportunity more cleanly: the three-tick oracle gains +8.986601 +/- 1.192597, comprising +8.993883 +/- 1.193839 arbitrage change and -0.007282 +/- 0.018450 retail change, while unrestricted cancellation loses 59.017933 +/- 15.697942. The one change indicated for N is a selective jump-risk cancellation guard that acts only on a credible >=3-tick next-probability move, retaining its normal retail quotes otherwise.",
  "next": "Implement and measure a non-oracle proxy for the >=3-tick jump signal, with conservative activation, against this incumbent on disjoint tuning seeds before any finalist evaluation.",
  "seconds_per_simulation": 0.667754
}