{"key":"fresh-1","idea":"branch-blend","tuning_paired":{"n":256,"mean_diff":0.1379,"se":0.0349,"worst5":[[60210,-3.485],[60075,-1.519],[60052,-1.19],[60195,-1.172],[60046,-0.948]]},"holdout_paired":{"n":2048,"mean_diff":0.1336,"se":0.0118,"sum":273.557035,"sumsq":622.063418,"worst5":[[11651,-2.524],[11857,-2.055],[11487,-1.85],[10475,-1.654],[10395,-1.433]]},"misread_rate":{"lattice":0.1624,"mine":0.1582},"price_error_bps":{"lattice":13.65,"mine":13.55},"gas_estimate":"Only on steps whose first trade is ambiguous (latt.py's 0.001<pi<0.999): a second table lookup (bilinear x 2 sd levels) plus two log-price blends; q=pi at the tuned bk=1,bb=0, so no extra exp. State +4 slots (arb-branch s2h, cnt, synced, q). About +15k-25k gas on those calls.","code_zb64":"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","code_sha256":"6c35cd6f909ea89d0b16ca7d916eaad534ae768ea6085d6f72308e0244811139","notes":"Idea branch-blend (make the mistake cheaper, not a new classifier): latt.py puts one bimodal mixture (point mass at the arb reading + cut retail posterior) into the qm tables as a mean/sd, with one phase and one rival estimate. branchq.BranchPolicy keeps both hypotheses through the step: arb branch (m=arb reading, sd 0, phase 0 then 1,2, rival band-clipped to it), retail branch (cut posterior moments, phase 1 then 2, rival from the router identity). Each looks up its own quotes; posted bid/ask = log-price blend with weight q=sigmoid(bk*logit(pi)+bb). The lattice belief update is unchanged from latt.py; at the next step the two rival estimates merge by q-weighted log. Tuning (60000..60255, vs lattice): bk=1,bb=0 +0.138 se 0.035; bk=1.3 +0.151; bk=2 +0.073; bk=0.8 +0.049; bk=0.5 -0.283; bb=+-0.3 +0.12/+0.11; bb=+-1 -0.19/-0.23. Kept bk=1,bb=0 (q=pi). Holdout 10000..12047 scored once, all 2048 seeds. Misread drops only slightly (the classification rule is the same; the change is through different quotes), price rms almost unchanged: the gain is from better quotes under ambiguity, not from reading the flag better. Gain +0.13 is under the 0.3 bar for Track A on its own. Next: combine with a better classifier from other items (it stacks: it uses whatever pi they give); try a blend in the Gaussian real.py, where retail-branch moments mt,vt already exist."}