{
  "market": "BTC",
  "direction": "short",
  "leverage": 200,
  "take_profit_bp": 25,
  "stop_loss_bp": 22,
  "bust_distance_bp": 45.0,
  "expected_net_return_on_margin_pct": 40.43547,
  "confidence": 0.55,
  "regime": "ranging",
  "entry_mid": 77303.5,
  "data_time_utc": "2026-10-31T03:32:00.449Z",
  "reasoning": "Hyperliquid public snapshots (https://api.hyperliquid.xyz/info; archived in research/market-snapshot.json) show BTC roughly 5 bp below its 1m EMA9 and 8 bp below hourly VWAP, versus ETH less than 1 bp below EMA9 and about 1 bp above VWAP, favoring a BTC short. BTC offer depth within 2 bp outweighs bids, but mixed higher-timeframe momentum makes this a tentative bearish range trade rather than a confirmed downtrend. At 200x, the 45 bp liquidation distance exceeds the recent maximum 1m range of 7.25 bp; a 22 bp stop allows several minutes of noise, while a 25 bp favorable exit calculates to +40.43547% net under the supplied off-hours curve, comfortably above +25.9%. Both exits are relative to the actual queued entry; this return is conditional on the take-profit fill, not an expected average outcome.",
  "risks": "A rebound through the recent range or reversal of the fleeting offer imbalance could trigger the 22 bp stop (about a 44% margin loss before execution drift); a rapid adverse jump of roughly 45 bp risks full liquidation. The last hour produced no completed 25 bp target versus 22 bp stop paths, so it does not establish a win probability; queued entry, close latency and changed settlement parameters can invalidate the snapshot or reduce the payout."
}