{ "title": "Liquity v2 and its forks: rates and redemptions, corrected dataset", "version": 2, "as_of": "2026-10-29", "period_start": "2023-01-01", "date_semantics": "Claim date is the verification/read date. Historical event and observation dates appear in text and figures; unknown publication dates are not fabricated. Mutable docs were read on that date.", "methodology": { "labels": { "fact": "Attributable source statement, implementation rule, retrieved observation or deterministic calculation; self-reports stay attributed.", "inference": "Interpretation or proposed design test, not independently established causality.", "uncertain": "Unverified, missing, or insufficiently identified." }, "bold_deployment": "Ethereum May 2025 relaunch only; legacy BOLD separately indexed.", "rate_calls": { "rpc": "https://eth.drpc.org", "to": "0xfa61db085510c64b83056db3a7acf3b6f631d235", "signature": "getMultipleSortedTroves(uint256,int256,uint256)", "selector": "0x27addfca", "arguments": "branch index 0/1/2, start 0, count 1000; historical block specified", "tuple_fields": [ "id", "entireDebt", "entireColl", "redistBoldDebtGain", "redistCollGain", "accruedInterest", "recordedDebt", "annualInterestRate", "accruedBatchManagementFee", "lastInterestRateAdjTime", "stake", "lastDebtUpdateTime", "interestBatchManager", "batchDebtShares", "snapshotETH", "snapshotBoldDebt" ], "rate_percent": "annualInterestRate / 1e16", "mean": "sum(entireDebt * rate_percent) / sum(entireDebt); active sorted lists only; excludes management fees", "block_mapping": "https://coins.llama.fi/block/ethereum/{unix_timestamp}; UTC-midnight targets" }, "lusd_logs": { "query": "https://eth.blockscout.com/api?module=logs&action=getLogs&address=0xA39739EF8b0231DbFA0DcdA07d7e29faAbCf4bb2&fromBlock=16308190&toBlock=26295123&topic0=0x43a3f4082a4dbc33d78e317d2497d3a730bc7fc3574159dcea1056e62e5d9ad8", "pagination": "Repeat fromBlock=last returned block while 1000 rows returned; union on transactionHash/logIndex. Pages 1000,1000,195; deduplicated 2193.", "topic": "0x43a3f4082a4dbc33d78e317d2497d3a730bc7fc3574159dcea1056e62e5d9ad8", "decode": "Four nonindexed uint256 words: attempted LUSD, actual LUSD, ETH sent, ETH fee; divide by 1e18.", "fee": "sum(ETH fee) / sum(ETH sent + ETH fee); not BOLD amount weighting" }, "bold_prices": "Dashboard previous-block Curve spot, falling back to Uni v3/v4; not executable acquisition price. Independent DefiLlama samples use actual returned UTC timestamps and are not intraday extrema.", "limitations": [ "BOLD export spot-checked, not completely reindexed.", "Fork supply series identity and deployment differences are flagged.", "No causal delegate comparison or universal optimal parameters.", "Initial publicnode historical RPC denied archive access; successful archive reads used dRPC instead.", "Dune returned page shell; Etherscan 403; Blockscout supplied verified source and LUSD logs." ] }, "claims": [ { "id": "m1", "text": "This revision adds direct Ethereum historical-state reads, LUSD event logs, and calculations from a pinned third-party BOLD dashboard export. The BOLD export is commit `f7d021bbfe83ceaeac61b3c60537b74606ea9490`, ending at block **26,295,123**, snapshot **2026-10-29 01:29:59 UTC**. It covers the **May 2025 deployment**, not legacy BOLD. The export contains **2,712 unique transaction hashes**, **8,204 trove-hit rows**, and **47,560,531.995 BOLD** redeemed. Rounded hit amounts reconcile to transaction amounts within **0.001 BOLD**. One independently fetched transaction receipt reconciles all six branch-redemption events to **25,095.965214 BOLD**; this spot check does not audit every exported row. Sources: pinned export, collector code, checked transaction.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://github.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/tree/f7d021bbfe83ceaeac61b3c60537b74606ea9490", "https://github.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/blob/d346a4f0420bbd5f3a3abc091218eb291da34a68/worker.js", "https://eth.blockscout.com/tx/0x1b943b0a8b77fce995f0f3bd41b915164bbd75e5acefa8836898f0d6c40f7eaf" ], "date": "2026-10-29", "figures": { "source_commit": "f7d021bbfe83ceaeac61b3c60537b74606ea9490", "snapshot_block": 26295123, "snapshot_time_utc": "2026-10-29T01:29:59+00:00", "earliest_redemption": "2025-05-19T10:52:59+00:00", "latest_redemption": "2026-10-28T18:36:59+00:00", "sample_checked_hash": "0x1b943b0a8b77fce995f0f3bd41b915164bbd75e5acefa8836898f0d6c40f7eaf" } }, { "id": "m2", "text": "Here, **fact** means an attributable rule, retrieved observation, calculation, or statement by a named source; it does not turn a team's assurance into independently established solvency. **Inference** means interpretation or a proposed design test. **Uncertain** marks unresolved evidence. Numbers denominated in stablecoin units are not independently priced dollar flows. Daily price samples miss intraday extremes. Sources, query parameters, observations, and calculations accompany `data-v2.json`; an offline evidence package and standard-library checking script are in `research/liquity-v2-revision/`. These distinctions apply to every table below.", "label": "inference", "sources": [], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "c1", "text": "Ethereum Liquity v1 issues LUSD against ETH, charges a variable one-time borrowing fee rather than borrower-selected ongoing interest, and redeems the lowest-collateral-ratio eligible troves first. Its documented normal borrowing fee range is **0.5%–5%**, with **0%** in Recovery Mode. Calling this a fixed 0.5% fee, as the original report did, obscures existing issuance feedback. This is a rule comparison, not a claim about every realized fee during 2023–2026. Sources: v1 borrowing, v1 redemption rules.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://docs.liquity.org/liquity-v1/faq/borrowing", "https://docs.liquity.org/liquity-v1/faq/lusd-redemptions" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "c2", "text": "Relaunched Ethereum BOLD has WETH, wstETH and rETH branches. Rates are selected by borrowers **within implementation bounds**. The following constants were checked in the May 14, 2025 audited commit and in the verified source bundle for the deployed registry; the constants files match exactly. A source bundle includes constants not all enforced by that registry itself. This is stronger than reading today's development branch, but is not a bytecode proof of every branch contract. Sources: May audited constants, deployed verified source API, contract register.\n\n| Ethereum BOLD reference parameter | Value |\n|---|---:|\n| Minimum active trove debt | 2,000 BOLD |\n| Annual borrower rate bounds | 0.5%–250% |\n| Normal redemption fee floor | 0.5% |\n| Initial redemption base rate | 100% |\n| Base-rate decay half-life; redemption beta | 6 hours; 1 |\n| Upfront-interest period; rate-adjustment cooldown | 7 days; 7 days |\n| WETH MCR / CCR | 110% / 150% |\n| wstETH and rETH MCR / CCR | 120% / 160% |\n| Interest share to the branch Stability Pool | 75% |\n| Shutdown-redemption bonus | 2% |", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://github.com/liquity/bold/blob/abe7cbfbd465fba3812282c51773455766a70e96/contracts/src/Dependencies/Constants.sol", "https://eth.blockscout.com/api/v2/smart-contracts/0xf949982b91c8c61e952b3ba942cbbfaef5386684", "https://docs.liquity.org/v2-documentation/technical-docs-and-audits" ], "date": "2026-10-29", "figures": { "chain": "Ethereum", "audited_commit": "abe7cbfbd465fba3812282c51773455766a70e96", "verified_registry": "0xf949982b91c8c61e952b3ba942cbbfaef5386684", "min_debt_bold": 2000, "annual_rate_bounds_percent": [ 0.5, 250 ], "normal_redemption_floor_percent": 0.5, "initial_base_rate_percent": 100, "base_rate_half_life_hours": 6, "redemption_beta": 1, "upfront_period_days": 7, "rate_cooldown_days": 7, "sp_yield_share_percent": 75, "urgent_bonus_percent": 2 } }, { "id": "c3", "text": "Liquity's March 21, 2024 design article predicts that redemption pressure will encourage borrowers to raise rates, increasing holding yields and discouraging issuance; above parity, reduced redemption risk can encourage lower rates and more borrowing. These are **the protocol's intended feedbacks**. They are not a measured response function or proof of a tightly clustered equilibrium. Source: why user-set rates.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://www.liquity.org/blog/liquity-v2-why-user-set-interest-rates" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "f1", "text": "Opening a trove and increasing debt incur an upfront fee based on **seven days of the branch's average interest**, added to debt. A standalone rate change incurs the premature-adjustment fee if made inside the seven-day cooldown; ordinary repayment or collateral addition is not generically charged that fee. The cooldown ordinarily prices rapid changes rather than prohibiting them. Source: BorrowerOperations implementation.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://github.com/liquity/bold/blob/abe7cbfbd465fba3812282c51773455766a70e96/contracts/src/BorrowerOperations.sol" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "c14", "text": "Normal redemption uses a decaying base rate plus the fraction of supply submitted for redemption, divided by beta; the fee is capped at 100% after adding the 0.5% floor. The six-hour half-life governs decay, not a six-hour lockout. The registry updates the final base rate using actual redeemed volume; quotes and executed amounts need not coincide. Initial base rate is 100%, so the comment about discouraging redemption below roughly $0.95 must not be read as a constant 5% launch fee. Sources: registry fee calculation, constants.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://github.com/liquity/bold/blob/abe7cbfbd465fba3812282c51773455766a70e96/contracts/src/CollateralRegistry.sol", "https://github.com/liquity/bold/blob/abe7cbfbd465fba3812282c51773455766a70e96/contracts/src/Dependencies/Constants.sol" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "c13", "text": "Liquity's current risk disclosure expressly allows that bad debt and loss of confidence can cause BOLD to depeg, including through redemptions of healthier branches. Separate borrower branches do not isolate stablecoin holders from collateral risk elsewhere. This preserves the original report's useful warning without treating the same document's promotional peg language as a guarantee. Source: risk disclosure.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://docs.liquity.org/v2-documentation/risk-disclosure" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "r1", "text": "Historical Ethereum reads of `MultiTroveGetter.getMultipleSortedTroves(branch,0,1000)` return the sorted active troves at each block below. All branch counts were below the requested 1,000, so no list pagination was needed. Means weight each trove's **entire debt** by its annual rate, excluding batch management fees and dormant troves. They are stock statistics, affected by borrowing, repayment and redemption as well as voluntary repricing. Block timestamps target midnight UTC, rather than the daily price samples used later. Sources: getter implementation, deployed getter, archive RPC used.\n\n| UTC snapshot | Ethereum block | WETH mean APR | wstETH mean APR | rETH mean APR |\n|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| 2025-06-09 | 22,663,306 | 3.9554% | 3.0993% | 3.4303% |\n| 2025-06-10 | 22,670,451 | 3.9706% | 3.1181% | 3.4330% |\n| 2025-06-11 | 22,677,607 | 4.0088% | 3.1837% | 3.5029% |\n| 2025-06-17 | 22,720,515 | 4.9947% | 3.5267% | 3.8056% |\n| 2025-10-09 | 23,536,461 | 3.0168% | 4.5978% | 5.4071% |\n| 2025-10-10 | 23,543,616 | 3.0114% | 4.5993% | 5.4071% |\n| 2025-10-11 | 23,550,764 | 3.0160% | 4.5884% | 5.4071% |\n| 2026-09-17 | 25,993,482 | 3.2839% | 0.9545% | 5.7756% |\n| 2026-09-18 | 26,000,651 | 3.2868% | 0.9628% | 5.7756% |\n| 2026-09-19 | 26,007,836 | 3.3024% | 0.9704% | 5.7760% |\n| 2026-09-25 | 26,050,749 | 3.4008% | 2.4660% | 6.2127% |", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://github.com/liquity/bold/blob/abe7cbfbd465fba3812282c51773455766a70e96/contracts/src/MultiTroveGetter.sol", "https://eth.blockscout.com/address/0xfa61db085510c64b83056db3a7acf3b6f631d235", "https://eth.drpc.org" ], "date": "2026-10-29", "figures": { "snapshots": [ { "date": "2025-06-09", "chain": "Ethereum", "block": 22663306, "branches": [ { "branch": "WETH", "active_count": 51, "active_debt_bold": 19916884.246493615, "debt_weighted_rate_percent": 3.9553848964179763, "min_rate_percent": 3.1, "max_rate_percent": 8.1, "batch_debt_share": 0.11254526330744126, "rate_buckets_debt_bold": [ { "rate_percent": 3.1, "debt_bold": 1026547.2549820632 }, { "rate_percent": 3.19835572, "debt_bold": 5004.154225429024 }, { "rate_percent": 3.2, "debt_bold": 140334.01734206945 }, { "rate_percent": 3.29945612, "debt_bold": 200321.25504972812 }, { "rate_percent": 3.3, "debt_bold": 178771.54931950552 }, { "rate_percent": 3.32, "debt_bold": 12525.535932699353 }, { "rate_percent": 3.32337635, "debt_bold": 10024.830313609107 }, { "rate_percent": 3.4, "debt_bold": 2721.084074484915 }, { "rate_percent": 3.6, "debt_bold": 31639.506429030254 }, { "rate_percent": 3.8, "debt_bold": 2007.47128230347 }, { "rate_percent": 3.9, "debt_bold": 16113945.309496026 }, { "rate_percent": 4.0, "debt_bold": 27762.887940479897 }, { "rate_percent": 4.2, "debt_bold": 8006.539602790501 }, { "rate_percent": 4.3, "debt_bold": 100155.32907978974 }, { "rate_percent": 4.5, "debt_bold": 501523.7946968273 }, { "rate_percent": 4.7, "debt_bold": 143932.33260293817 }, { "rate_percent": 5.0, "debt_bold": 297477.048173992 }, { "rate_percent": 5.1, "debt_bold": 39986.533930967846 }, { "rate_percent": 5.2, "debt_bold": 1054118.3610231958 }, { "rate_percent": 5.3, "debt_bold": 2006.830499860893 }, { "rate_percent": 6.8, "debt_bold": 6028.534201751385 }, { "rate_percent": 8.1, "debt_bold": 12044.08629407856 } ] }, { "branch": "wstETH", "active_count": 55, "active_debt_bold": 10303629.9522719, "debt_weighted_rate_percent": 3.0992598886956784, "min_rate_percent": 2.5, "max_rate_percent": 8.1, "batch_debt_share": 0.0634794103362301, "rate_buckets_debt_bold": [ { "rate_percent": 2.5, "debt_bold": 3408420.2327028923 }, { "rate_percent": 2.6, "debt_bold": 36889.76555967197 }, { "rate_percent": 2.7, "debt_bold": 166188.67739362465 }, { "rate_percent": 2.9, "debt_bold": 2006.3395209245896 }, { "rate_percent": 3.0, "debt_bold": 694313.4620939725 }, { "rate_percent": 3.1, "debt_bold": 195702.18736694613 }, { "rate_percent": 3.2, "debt_bold": 2661564.077737023 }, { "rate_percent": 3.21, "debt_bold": 2014.285700610241 }, { "rate_percent": 3.23037394, "debt_bold": 752123.4477578592 }, { "rate_percent": 3.4, "debt_bold": 213655.2978528239 }, { "rate_percent": 3.44274978, "debt_bold": 12524.773714917717 }, { "rate_percent": 3.5, "debt_bold": 112680.28271387884 }, { "rate_percent": 3.52737064, "debt_bold": 15638.545539334104 }, { "rate_percent": 3.6, "debt_bold": 14139.960754062442 }, { "rate_percent": 3.7, "debt_bold": 202889.18856937732 }, { "rate_percent": 3.9, "debt_bold": 1213551.1335457694 }, { "rate_percent": 4.0, "debt_bold": 492554.4439358482 }, { "rate_percent": 4.1, "debt_bold": 52706.99036850345 }, { "rate_percent": 4.5, "debt_bold": 17361.057251059356 }, { "rate_percent": 5.0, "debt_bold": 7593.497505430655 }, { "rate_percent": 5.23132882, "debt_bold": 20078.380523946 }, { "rate_percent": 6.0, "debt_bold": 7022.760324845329 }, { "rate_percent": 8.1, "debt_bold": 2011.1638385798503 } ] }, { "branch": "rETH", "active_count": 16, "active_debt_bold": 2729732.008119671, "debt_weighted_rate_percent": 3.4303399756519335, "min_rate_percent": 3.1, "max_rate_percent": 4.0, "batch_debt_share": 0.015667646724882515, "rate_buckets_debt_bold": [ { "rate_percent": 3.1, "debt_bold": 21573.771754439957 }, { "rate_percent": 3.2, "debt_bold": 154415.7556622077 }, { "rate_percent": 3.3, "debt_bold": 434155.9097019414 }, { "rate_percent": 3.40194422, "debt_bold": 2004.7233734915376 }, { "rate_percent": 3.40895126, "debt_bold": 820344.963594158 }, { "rate_percent": 3.5, "debt_bold": 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3.118138795163098, "min_rate_percent": 2.5, "max_rate_percent": 8.1, "batch_debt_share": 0.05890213321628788, "rate_buckets_debt_bold": [ { "rate_percent": 2.5, "debt_bold": 3382078.775009192 }, { "rate_percent": 2.6, "debt_bold": 36892.39212565454 }, { "rate_percent": 2.7, "debt_bold": 166200.96664535918 }, { "rate_percent": 2.9, "debt_bold": 2006.498913220999 }, { "rate_percent": 3.0, "debt_bold": 674323.238733968 }, { "rate_percent": 3.1, "debt_bold": 195718.79867993476 }, { "rate_percent": 3.2, "debt_bold": 4763119.764710637 }, { "rate_percent": 3.21, "debt_bold": 2014.4683489842926 }, { "rate_percent": 3.23037394, "debt_bold": 752189.938936161 }, { "rate_percent": 3.3, "debt_bold": 20047.283551854645 }, { "rate_percent": 3.4, "debt_bold": 213675.1985089526 }, { "rate_percent": 3.44274978, "debt_bold": 12525.95441040326 }, { "rate_percent": 3.5, "debt_bold": 112691.0735601168 }, { "rate_percent": 3.52737064, "debt_bold": 15640.05414771609 }, { "rate_percent": 3.6, "debt_bold": 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25063.652031875998 }, { "rate_percent": 6.1, "debt_bold": 145528.43198063795 }, { "rate_percent": 6.21, "debt_bold": 3964324.32191491 }, { "rate_percent": 6.23, "debt_bold": 28169.43686444962 }, { "rate_percent": 8.5, "debt_bold": 4291.365861260056 }, { "rate_percent": 9.2, "debt_bold": 10363.27006896315 } ] } ], "all_branches_weighted_rate_percent": 3.211136364668554 } ] } }, { "id": "c5", "text": "Around the June 10, 2025 redemption day, the aggregate debt-weighted mean rose from **3.6442% on June 9** to **3.6678% on June 11**, and **4.2603% on June 17**: about **2.36 basis points** initially and **61.61 basis points** over eight days. Around September 2026 pressure, it rose from **2.2388% on September 17** to **2.2596% on September 19**, and **3.2111% on September 25**. The wstETH branch's minimum listed rate moved from **0.7%** to **2.000000001%** between September 17 and 25. These measurements replace the original complete rate-data gap. Sources: the getter and archive RPC; exact blocks and decoded fields are preserved offline.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://eth.blockscout.com/address/0xfa61db085510c64b83056db3a7acf3b6f631d235", "https://eth.drpc.org" ], "date": "2026-10-29", "figures": { "all_branch_weighted_rate_percent": [ { "date": "2025-06-09", "block": 22663306, "all_branches_weighted_rate_percent": 3.6441754707284812 }, { "date": "2025-06-10", "block": 22670451, "all_branches_weighted_rate_percent": 3.6254338958943584 }, { "date": "2025-06-11", "block": 22677607, "all_branches_weighted_rate_percent": 3.667762137376096 }, { "date": "2025-06-17", "block": 22720515, "all_branches_weighted_rate_percent": 4.260319733073152 }, { "date": "2025-10-09", "block": 23536461, "all_branches_weighted_rate_percent": 4.2919618216 }, { "date": "2025-10-10", "block": 23543616, "all_branches_weighted_rate_percent": 4.29025092275974 }, { "date": "2025-10-11", "block": 23550764, "all_branches_weighted_rate_percent": 4.26492443691694 }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "block": 25993482, "all_branches_weighted_rate_percent": 2.2388275031265468 }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "block": 26000651, "all_branches_weighted_rate_percent": 2.2370146687940795 }, { "date": "2026-09-19", "block": 26007836, "all_branches_weighted_rate_percent": 2.259636377446477 }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "block": 26050749, "all_branches_weighted_rate_percent": 3.211136364668554 } ] } }, { "id": "r2", "text": "These windows show material changes over days, with a small first-day movement in the aggregate mean. They do not establish a universal reaction time, a causal effect of peg stress, or the time each surviving borrower took to react. Removing low-rate debt mechanically raises the mean; entrants and debt weights also change. October 10, 2025 provides a useful contrast: branch means barely changed across the sampled midnights, and the export has no normal redemption transaction on that UTC day. A liquidation day is not automatically a redemption wave. Sources: pinned redemption records, historical reads above.", "label": "inference", "sources": [ "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/f7d021bbfe83ceaeac61b3c60537b74606ea9490/redemptions.json" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "r3", "text": "The October 29, 2026 BOLD snapshot shows **159 active** and **44 dormant/zombie** troves. Distribution is highly uneven by debt: WETH's largest rounded rate bucket is **4.5%**, holding **5.307m of 14.013m BOLD** active debt; wstETH has **7.384m at 2.5%** and **7.082m at 2.55%**, together about **67.4%** of its **21.463m** debt; rETH has **3.795m of 4.055m** debt around **8.5%**. Branch debt-weighted means are **3.5774%, 2.4963%, 8.0626%** respectively. Buckets round annual percentage rates to eight decimal places; values infinitesimally above round rates are grouped for readability. Source: pinned trove snapshot.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/f7d021bbfe83ceaeac61b3c60537b74606ea9490/troves.json" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "r6", "text": "Historical distributions also changed materially. The table reports the largest debt bucket and the share of active debt within **10 basis points of the lowest active rate**; that latter statistic measures concentration near the queue head, not a reconstructed marginal redemption frontier. Rates are rounded to eight decimal percentage places and the inclusive band uses a small rounding tolerance. Complete rate buckets for all eleven snapshots are in the dataset. Sources: deployed getter, historical RPC, at the blocks in r1.\n\n| Snapshot / branch | Largest rate bucket (APR; debt share) | Debt within head + 10 bp |\n|---|---|---:|\n| 2025-06-09 WETH | 3.9%; 80.91% | 5.88% |\n| 2025-06-17 WETH | 5.0%; 89.04% | 3.23% |\n| 2025-06-09 wstETH | 2.5%; 33.08% | 33.44% |\n| 2025-06-17 wstETH | 3.2%; 53.97% | 60.64% |\n| 2026-09-17 wstETH | 0.7%; 49.64% | 82.43% |\n| 2026-09-25 wstETH | 2.2%; 35.55% | 2.71% |\n| 2026-09-17 rETH | 5.8%; 98.20% | 0.67% |\n| 2026-09-25 rETH | 6.21%; 94.79% | 0.11% |", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://eth.blockscout.com/address/0xfa61db085510c64b83056db3a7acf3b6f631d235", "https://eth.drpc.org", "https://github.com/liquity/bold/blob/abe7cbfbd465fba3812282c51773455766a70e96/contracts/src/MultiTroveGetter.sol" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "r4", "text": "There is observed rate clustering, but this snapshot does **not** show everyone bidding just above one redemption frontier. Branches have different frontiers; large loans and batches dominate debt-weighted buckets. The rETH branch had more Stability Pool deposits than debt at this snapshot yet retained a high average rate. Queue safety therefore cannot be inferred from APR alone, and the data does not prove borrowers minimize their costs continuously. The original “Nash-equilibrium-like” claim is withdrawn. Source: same snapshot.", "label": "inference", "sources": [ "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/f7d021bbfe83ceaeac61b3c60537b74606ea9490/troves.json" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "c4", "text": "Rate delegation includes wallet delegation, third-party batch managers, and autonomous strategies; automation is not mandatory. Liquity's current metadata names **Summerstone**, **Trove Zero**, **Bolder Cash**, and **Autonomous Rate Manager** contracts. ARM's June 23, 2025 announcement describes its strategy; it is not a controlled performance study. In the October snapshot, **78 of 159 active troves**, holding **39.64% of active debt**, were batched. Batched debt shares differ markedly: **24.85% WETH**, **38.96% wstETH**, **94.29% rETH**. Sources: official manager metadata, ARM announcement, snapshot.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://api.liquity.org/v2/known-delegates/ethereum.json", "https://www.liquity.org/blog/autonomous-interest-manager", "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/f7d021bbfe83ceaeac61b3c60537b74606ea9490/troves.json" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "r5", "text": "The snapshot reports management fees such as **0.3% annual** for Summerstone strategies and **0.15%** for Bolder Cash Mid Rate. Management fees add to borrower debt and are distinct from the rate used for queue ordering. Joining a batch incurs an upfront fee; switching batches is not free. Standalone and batch cooldown rules must be evaluated separately rather than asserting a universal one-week inability to move. Sources: snapshot managers, batch operations.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/f7d021bbfe83ceaeac61b3c60537b74606ea9490/troves.json", "https://github.com/liquity/bold/blob/abe7cbfbd465fba3812282c51773455766a70e96/contracts/src/BorrowerOperations.sol" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "c6", "text": "Delegation's causal effect on clustering, redemption avoidance and reaction speed remains unresolved. The export attributes about **3.552m BOLD**, or **7.47%** of historical redeemed debt, to batched positions, but comparing that flow share to today's 39.64% stock share would be invalid: adoption, debt and branch coverage changed. A valid comparison needs historical exposure denominators and matched borrowers/branches. Sources: historical stats, trove snapshot.", "label": "uncertain", "sources": [ "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/f7d021bbfe83ceaeac61b3c60537b74606ea9490/stats.json", "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/f7d021bbfe83ceaeac61b3c60537b74606ea9490/troves.json" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "c11", "text": "An Ethereum LUSD `TroveManager.Redemption(uint256,uint256,uint256,uint256)` scan from block **16,308,190 through 26,295,123** returned **2,193 unique logs** after paging and deduplication by transaction hash/log index. Each event supplies attempted LUSD, actual LUSD, ETH sent and ETH fee. The fee column below is **sum ETH fee / sum(ETH sent + ETH fee)**; it is collateral-weighted, not a mean of transaction percentages. BOLD totals below come from a different collector and begin at relaunch. Sources: v1 deployment register, log query.\n\n| Calendar period, Ethereum | LUSD event count | Actual LUSD redeemed | LUSD collateral-weighted fee | BOLD unique transactions | Actual BOLD redeemed |\n|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| 2023 | 1,271 | 178,592,893 | 0.8376% | Not launched | — |\n| 2024 | 611 | 77,576,914 | 0.7967% | Not launched | — |\n| 2025 | 251 | 25,202,015 | 0.9294% | 1,138, May 19 onward | 22,751,249 |\n| 2026 through cutoff block | 60 | 5,341,153 | 1.0188% | 1,574 | 24,809,283 |", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/liquity/dev/main/packages/lib-ethers/deployments/default/mainnet.json", "https://eth.blockscout.com/api?module=logs&action=getLogs&address=0xA39739EF8b0231DbFA0DcdA07d7e29faAbCf4bb2&fromBlock=16308190&toBlock=26295123&topic0=0x43a3f4082a4dbc33d78e317d2497d3a730bc7fc3574159dcea1056e62e5d9ad8" ], "date": "2026-10-29", "figures": { "annual_lusd": [ { "year": "2023", "chain": "Ethereum", "event_count": 1271, "actual_lusd": 178592893.31329346, "eth_sent": 102635.38690505551, "eth_fee": 866.9480115829878, "collateral_weighted_fee_percent": 0.8376120328891457, "cutoff_block": 26295123 }, { "year": "2024", "chain": "Ethereum", "event_count": 611, "actual_lusd": 77576913.73579204, "eth_sent": 25989.036168600665, "eth_fee": 208.72355866475257, "collateral_weighted_fee_percent": 0.7967229291271144, "cutoff_block": 26295123 }, { "year": "2025", "chain": "Ethereum", "event_count": 251, "actual_lusd": 25202015.495300777, "eth_sent": 10323.838071539118, "eth_fee": 96.85487083933798, "collateral_weighted_fee_percent": 0.9294475077127786, "cutoff_block": 26295123 }, { "year": "2026", "chain": "Ethereum", "event_count": 60, "actual_lusd": 5341153.38552699, "eth_sent": 2466.3959033746364, "eth_fee": 25.386372830211744, "collateral_weighted_fee_percent": 1.0188038125416359, "cutoff_block": 26295123 } ] } }, { "id": "e1", "text": "BOLD therefore had more frequent, smaller recorded transactions than LUSD during 2026, and much greater redeemed volume in stablecoin units. This is not proof of a better or worse peg: stocks, borrower composition, oracle gaps and collector units differ; one transaction can contain multiple redemption calls. V1's 2023 annual total is a gross flow, not net supply contraction. Use the 2025 figures cautiously because legacy BOLD is excluded and May–December is shorter than a calendar year. Sources: BOLD records, LUSD log query above.", "label": "inference", "sources": [ "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/f7d021bbfe83ceaeac61b3c60537b74606ea9490/redemptions.json" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "c7", "text": "Liquity's report published **November 12, 2023** describes LUSD near parity through July and **early August**, then September observations around **$0.995 and $0.99**, alongside redemptions. It prints July/August “peg deviation” values **0.0108/0.0084**, without defining units, averaging or venue; this revision does not call them averages or convert them to basis points. Source: Q3 report.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://www.liquity.org/blog/liquity-q3-2023-report" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "c8", "text": "The same protocol report attributes selling pressure partly to borrowing LUSD and switching into DAI's enhanced Savings Rate, briefly **8%** before falling to **5%**. This preserves the original competing-yield explanation as **Liquity's account**, not uniquely identified causality. It also avoids the original unauthenticated October 1 publication date. Source: Liquity's Q3 account.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://www.liquity.org/blog/liquity-q3-2023-report" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "c9", "text": "Parsec Weekly #43, published **October 27, 2023**, independently describes an increase in LUSD redemptions and rising collateralization ratios of redeemed positions. The article body was retrieved directly in this revision, rather than relying on a search snippet. It supports the qualitative observation that redemption reached better-collateralized borrowers, not a quantified distribution of borrower losses. Source: Parsec article.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://blog.hepworthiron.capital/p/parsec-weekly-43" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "c10", "text": "Liquity's March 21, 2024 explanation explicitly links its redesign to v1 borrowers raising collateral ratios to avoid redemptions in a high-yield environment. This is evidence of the team's design motivation; it does not establish that v2 eliminated persistent discounts. Source: design explanation.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://www.liquity.org/blog/liquity-v2-why-user-set-interest-rates" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "p1", "text": "Independently sampled DefiLlama prices provide a longer LUSD comparison: observed daily sample ranges were **$0.984802–$1.034 in 2023**, **$0.988968–$1.027 in 2024**, **$0.991782–$1.011 in 2025**, and **$0.993066–$1.027350 in 2026 through October 28**. These are sampled prices for the Ethereum token, not continuous venue extrema or guaranteed execution prices. Sources: 2023–2024 samples, 2024–2025 samples, 2025–2026 samples.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://coins.llama.fi/chart/ethereum:0x5f98805a4e8be255a32880fdec7f6728c6568ba0?start=1672531200&span=500&period=1d", "https://coins.llama.fi/chart/ethereum:0x5f98805a4e8be255a32880fdec7f6728c6568ba0?start=1715731200&span=500&period=1d", "https://coins.llama.fi/chart/ethereum:0x5f98805a4e8be255a32880fdec7f6728c6568ba0?start=1758931200&span=400&period=1d" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "c12", "text": "BOLD's post-relaunch export spans **May 19, 2025–October 28, 2026**. Median transaction size was **12,544.05 BOLD**; the amount-weighted redemption fee was **0.86794%**. June 2025 contained **253 transactions / 5.103m BOLD**, September 2026 **402 / 5.283m**, and October 2026 through October 28 **717 / 7.860m**. Two transactions were below one BOLD; one lacked a market-price estimate. The dataset stores all 18 monthly aggregates, rather than presenting a few selected days as the entire history. Source: pinned redemption export.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/f7d021bbfe83ceaeac61b3c60537b74606ea9490/redemptions.json" ], "date": "2026-10-29", "figures": { "monthly_bold": [ { "month": "2025-05", "chain": "Ethereum", "tx_count": 15, "redeemed_bold": 254823.2981942748, "amount_weighted_fee_percent": 0.6533692339232587, "pre_transaction_quote_min": 0.9975951639638835, "pre_transaction_quote_max": 1.000288907871273 }, { "month": "2025-06", "chain": "Ethereum", "tx_count": 253, "redeemed_bold": 5102614.498742423, "amount_weighted_fee_percent": 0.8771102279785868, "pre_transaction_quote_min": 0.9908170596899254, "pre_transaction_quote_max": 0.9999802649998343 }, { "month": "2025-07", "chain": "Ethereum", "tx_count": 108, "redeemed_bold": 2848232.74983937, "amount_weighted_fee_percent": 0.7376742003726366, "pre_transaction_quote_min": 0.9948255430356886, "pre_transaction_quote_max": 1.0006542335040232 }, { "month": "2025-08", "chain": "Ethereum", "tx_count": 248, "redeemed_bold": 5614984.375035313, "amount_weighted_fee_percent": 0.7917537890843799, "pre_transaction_quote_min": 0.9971865856237228, "pre_transaction_quote_max": 0.9998696524685449 }, { "month": "2025-09", "chain": "Ethereum", "tx_count": 86, "redeemed_bold": 2269033.110231903, "amount_weighted_fee_percent": 0.7615117704599234, "pre_transaction_quote_min": 0.9967500732904094, "pre_transaction_quote_max": 1.0006206915669884 }, { "month": "2025-10", "chain": "Ethereum", "tx_count": 60, "redeemed_bold": 1402200.9435381517, "amount_weighted_fee_percent": 0.6689904995639641, "pre_transaction_quote_min": 0.9967106719795539, "pre_transaction_quote_max": 1.0014459567932268 }, { "month": "2025-11", "chain": "Ethereum", "tx_count": 61, "redeemed_bold": 1091765.8779738874, "amount_weighted_fee_percent": 0.7085432894187518, "pre_transaction_quote_min": 0.9961873687429585, "pre_transaction_quote_max": 1.0015872648101565 }, { "month": "2025-12", "chain": "Ethereum", "tx_count": 307, "redeemed_bold": 4167593.9346803324, "amount_weighted_fee_percent": 0.7378206595957052, "pre_transaction_quote_min": 0.9945134948538166, "pre_transaction_quote_max": 0.9998861317276382 }, { "month": "2026-01", "chain": "Ethereum", "tx_count": 43, "redeemed_bold": 1078372.3949088603, "amount_weighted_fee_percent": 0.7712631489888023, "pre_transaction_quote_min": 0.9990263094354979, "pre_transaction_quote_max": 1.000630538920027 }, { "month": "2026-02", "chain": "Ethereum", "tx_count": 52, "redeemed_bold": 1493459.699812615, "amount_weighted_fee_percent": 0.8447066838547534, "pre_transaction_quote_min": 0.9995562640783034, "pre_transaction_quote_max": 1.0054167346509193 }, { "month": "2026-03", "chain": "Ethereum", "tx_count": 20, "redeemed_bold": 1121486.776029439, "amount_weighted_fee_percent": 1.3226884356803876, "pre_transaction_quote_min": 1.0037585646653535, "pre_transaction_quote_max": 1.0058194997405363 }, { "month": "2026-04", "chain": "Ethereum", "tx_count": 36, "redeemed_bold": 811853.6064564561, "amount_weighted_fee_percent": 0.7153167289106556, "pre_transaction_quote_min": 0.9991365993791193, "pre_transaction_quote_max": 1.003927541919044 }, { "month": "2026-05", "chain": "Ethereum", "tx_count": 33, "redeemed_bold": 608993.1632473465, "amount_weighted_fee_percent": 0.8039503586881074, "pre_transaction_quote_min": 0.9987132331525584, "pre_transaction_quote_max": 1.0002418681484477 }, { "month": "2026-06", "chain": "Ethereum", "tx_count": 194, "redeemed_bold": 4105985.2030453198, "amount_weighted_fee_percent": 1.1386414015264754, "pre_transaction_quote_min": 0.9981343348268661, "pre_transaction_quote_max": 1.0021614629365374 }, { "month": "2026-07", "chain": "Ethereum", "tx_count": 52, "redeemed_bold": 1091738.838854033, "amount_weighted_fee_percent": 0.8403633457342683, "pre_transaction_quote_min": 0.9995421328392953, "pre_transaction_quote_max": 1.0018179074761446 }, { "month": "2026-08", "chain": "Ethereum", "tx_count": 25, "redeemed_bold": 1354673.121053858, "amount_weighted_fee_percent": 1.4895913977896396, "pre_transaction_quote_min": 1.0004645389419158, "pre_transaction_quote_max": 1.0025828328444346 }, { "month": "2026-09", "chain": "Ethereum", "tx_count": 402, "redeemed_bold": 5283141.433327007, "amount_weighted_fee_percent": 0.8825176782347786, "pre_transaction_quote_min": 0.9951005481672361, "pre_transaction_quote_max": 1.000644671456549 }, { "month": "2026-10", "chain": "Ethereum", "tx_count": 717, "redeemed_bold": 7859578.969894633, "amount_weighted_fee_percent": 0.8469288303667787, "pre_transaction_quote_min": 0.9942952510985785, "pre_transaction_quote_max": 0.9966759336820317 } ] } }, { "id": "e2", "text": "The next table selects a June 2025 underpeg wave, two large 2026 redemption days at quoted prices above parity, and a September 2026 underpeg day. “Troves” means unique branch/trove pairs touched that day; fees weight transaction amounts. Price columns are DefiLlama daily observations on the UTC dates D−1, D, D+1 and D+7, usually near day's end, **not** immediately before/after a transaction. Sources: redemptions, trove hits, daily BOLD prices.\n\n| Day (UTC), Ethereum | Transactions / unique troves | BOLD redeemed | Weighted fee | Price D−1 / D / D+1 / D+7 |\n|---|---:|---:|---:|---|\n| 2025-06-10 | 20 / 16 | 516,715 | 1.0613% | 0.994361 / 0.992675 / 0.993316 / 0.997942 |\n| 2026-03-23 | 6 / 3 | 635,885 | 1.7424% | 1.004259 / 1.004262 / 1.003678 / 1.004048 |\n| 2026-08-19 | 11 / 13 | 884,940 | 1.8253% | 1.000743 / 1.001603 / 1.001002 / 1.000576 |\n| 2026-09-21 | 18 / 15 | 604,137 | 1.1376% | 0.995222 / 0.995197 / 0.996439 / 0.996479 |", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/f7d021bbfe83ceaeac61b3c60537b74606ea9490/redemptions.json", "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/f7d021bbfe83ceaeac61b3c60537b74606ea9490/trovehits.json", "https://coins.llama.fi/chart/ethereum:0x6440f144b7e50D6a8439336510312d2F54beB01D?start=1748217600&span=500&period=1d" ], "date": "2026-10-29", "figures": { "selected_days": [ { "date": "2025-06-10", "chain": "Ethereum", "transactions": 20, "actual_bold": 516714.97636600403, "unique_troves": 16, "hit_rows": 70, "amount_weighted_fee_percent": 1.0613195621254075, "amount_weighted_oracle_gap_percent": 0.5397072994139304, "by_branch_bold": { "WETH": 308576.2557, "wstETH": 181206.05240000002, "rETH": 26932.6684 }, "borrow_rate_range_percent": [ 2.5, 3.2995 ], "sample_prices": { "-1": { "timestamp": 1749513541, "price": 0.994361 }, "0": { "timestamp": 1749599935, "price": 0.992675 }, "1": { "timestamp": 1749686341, "price": 0.993316 }, "7": { "timestamp": 1750204739, "price": 0.997942 } }, "transactions_sample": [ "0x2bde1c33f7a064f261f40b7b712027feddca0bd1961ec32825db7e8b366d8892", "0x2b054b46f2936d2a0685dd2c1bdeaed3e6725d17c96e90c702e0be1d7347d62b" ] }, { "date": "2025-10-10", "chain": "Ethereum", "transactions": 0, "actual_bold": 0, "unique_troves": 0, "hit_rows": 0, "amount_weighted_fee_percent": null, "amount_weighted_oracle_gap_percent": null, "by_branch_bold": { "WETH": 0, "wstETH": 0, "rETH": 0 }, "borrow_rate_range_percent": null, "sample_prices": { "-1": { "timestamp": 1760054334, "price": 0.9977779396572372 }, "0": { "timestamp": 1760140747, "price": 1.0002640970892112 }, "1": { "timestamp": 1760227140, "price": 1.0000646841642482 }, "7": { "timestamp": 1760745536, "price": 0.999139893149961 } }, "transactions_sample": [] }, { "date": "2026-03-23", "chain": "Ethereum", "transactions": 6, "actual_bold": 635884.7857239806, "unique_troves": 3, "hit_rows": 13, "amount_weighted_fee_percent": 1.7424006516693307, "amount_weighted_oracle_gap_percent": 4.0766981602556065, "by_branch_bold": { "WETH": 0, "wstETH": 542574.1061, "rETH": 93310.6795 }, "borrow_rate_range_percent": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "sample_prices": { "-1": { "timestamp": 1774223947, "price": 1.0042586355879408 }, "0": { "timestamp": 1774310320, "price": 1.0042617003276706 }, "1": { "timestamp": 1774396740, "price": 1.0036784226997653 }, "7": { "timestamp": 1774915149, "price": 1.0040483161519473 } }, "transactions_sample": [ "0x0fb0c9071bcd1895f0ccca02f8fb8d736450c76825dfd2c747f98616c5382b05", "0x8dcc99df39631ee3f521458844a07eb0d16222700bd45e23c5c9ace4c566de11" ] }, { "date": "2026-08-19", "chain": "Ethereum", "transactions": 11, "actual_bold": 884939.7447666476, "unique_troves": 13, "hit_rows": 44, "amount_weighted_fee_percent": 1.8252994662082251, "amount_weighted_oracle_gap_percent": 3.326321255367087, "by_branch_bold": { "WETH": 424953.7504, "wstETH": 306538.9532, "rETH": 153447.0413 }, "borrow_rate_range_percent": [ 0.5, 4.01 ], "sample_prices": { "-1": { "timestamp": 1787097110, "price": 1.0007425462064905 }, "0": { "timestamp": 1787183510, "price": 1.0016032269270831 }, "1": { "timestamp": 1787269900, "price": 1.0010018738618545 }, "7": { "timestamp": 1787788310, "price": 1.0005764029561026 } }, "transactions_sample": [ "0x523e989ca21c27ee641dff97b522260f2045352ac0b45950fd4901d2f2d80adb", "0xdf20c4008092681dce9e76f684189f70cbfda4a82e65ec25e312e4aac2abd034" ] }, { "date": "2026-09-21", "chain": "Ethereum", "transactions": 18, "actual_bold": 604136.5506250252, "unique_troves": 15, "hit_rows": 46, "amount_weighted_fee_percent": 1.137611565475705, "amount_weighted_oracle_gap_percent": 1.0898379999434895, "by_branch_bold": { "WETH": 113995.5527, "wstETH": 490140.998, "rETH": 0 }, "borrow_rate_range_percent": [ 0.7, 2.4 ], "sample_prices": { "-1": { "timestamp": 1789948300, "price": 0.9952215185404687 }, "0": { "timestamp": 1790034680, "price": 0.9951966225670209 }, "1": { "timestamp": 1790121100, "price": 0.9964386246928978 }, "7": { "timestamp": 1790639500, "price": 0.9964791054573086 } }, "transactions_sample": [ "0xf30d840af8eb22ab4d562045dc90e352ff6ad17da967f96fa89fddd178f513b8", "0x1630115b1ed10d70661e9e4e4660ece48fc92908c12ae865ec32adb11ae80ad4" ] } ] } }, { "id": "e3", "text": "June 10 hits covered **308,576 WETH-branch BOLD**, **181,206 wstETH**, and **26,933 rETH**, at recorded borrower rates **2.5%–3.2995%**. September 21 covered **113,996 WETH**, **490,141 wstETH**, and **zero rETH**, at **0.7%–2.4%**. March 23 reached only three distinct troves, all at **0.5%**, across wstETH/rETH. LUSD had no redemption event on June 10, 2025 or September 21, 2026; March 23, 2026 had **654,412 LUSD** redeemed, and August 19 had **1,016,401 LUSD**. These are contemporaneous comparisons rather than matched borrowers. Sources: BOLD hits, LUSD event query in c11.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/f7d021bbfe83ceaeac61b3c60537b74606ea9490/trovehits.json", "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/liquity/dev/main/packages/lib-ethers/deployments/default/mainnet.json", "https://eth.blockscout.com/api?module=logs&action=getLogs&address=0xA39739EF8b0231DbFA0DcdA07d7e29faAbCf4bb2&fromBlock=16308190&toBlock=26295123&topic0=0x43a3f4082a4dbc33d78e317d2497d3a730bc7fc3574159dcea1056e62e5d9ad8" ], "date": "2026-10-29", "figures": { "selected_days": [ { "date": "2025-06-10", "chain": "Ethereum", "transactions": 20, "actual_bold": 516714.97636600403, "unique_troves": 16, "hit_rows": 70, "amount_weighted_fee_percent": 1.0613195621254075, "amount_weighted_oracle_gap_percent": 0.5397072994139304, "by_branch_bold": { "WETH": 308576.2557, "wstETH": 181206.05240000002, "rETH": 26932.6684 }, "borrow_rate_range_percent": [ 2.5, 3.2995 ], "sample_prices": { "-1": { "timestamp": 1749513541, "price": 0.994361 }, "0": { "timestamp": 1749599935, "price": 0.992675 }, "1": { "timestamp": 1749686341, "price": 0.993316 }, "7": { "timestamp": 1750204739, "price": 0.997942 } }, "transactions_sample": [ "0x2bde1c33f7a064f261f40b7b712027feddca0bd1961ec32825db7e8b366d8892", "0x2b054b46f2936d2a0685dd2c1bdeaed3e6725d17c96e90c702e0be1d7347d62b" ] }, { "date": "2025-10-10", "chain": "Ethereum", "transactions": 0, "actual_bold": 0, "unique_troves": 0, "hit_rows": 0, "amount_weighted_fee_percent": null, "amount_weighted_oracle_gap_percent": null, "by_branch_bold": { "WETH": 0, "wstETH": 0, "rETH": 0 }, "borrow_rate_range_percent": null, "sample_prices": { "-1": { "timestamp": 1760054334, "price": 0.9977779396572372 }, "0": { "timestamp": 1760140747, "price": 1.0002640970892112 }, "1": { "timestamp": 1760227140, "price": 1.0000646841642482 }, "7": { "timestamp": 1760745536, "price": 0.999139893149961 } }, "transactions_sample": [] }, { "date": "2026-03-23", "chain": "Ethereum", "transactions": 6, "actual_bold": 635884.7857239806, "unique_troves": 3, "hit_rows": 13, "amount_weighted_fee_percent": 1.7424006516693307, "amount_weighted_oracle_gap_percent": 4.0766981602556065, "by_branch_bold": { "WETH": 0, "wstETH": 542574.1061, "rETH": 93310.6795 }, "borrow_rate_range_percent": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "sample_prices": { "-1": { "timestamp": 1774223947, "price": 1.0042586355879408 }, "0": { "timestamp": 1774310320, "price": 1.0042617003276706 }, "1": { "timestamp": 1774396740, "price": 1.0036784226997653 }, "7": { "timestamp": 1774915149, "price": 1.0040483161519473 } }, "transactions_sample": [ "0x0fb0c9071bcd1895f0ccca02f8fb8d736450c76825dfd2c747f98616c5382b05", "0x8dcc99df39631ee3f521458844a07eb0d16222700bd45e23c5c9ace4c566de11" ] }, { "date": "2026-08-19", "chain": "Ethereum", "transactions": 11, "actual_bold": 884939.7447666476, "unique_troves": 13, "hit_rows": 44, "amount_weighted_fee_percent": 1.8252994662082251, "amount_weighted_oracle_gap_percent": 3.326321255367087, "by_branch_bold": { "WETH": 424953.7504, "wstETH": 306538.9532, "rETH": 153447.0413 }, "borrow_rate_range_percent": [ 0.5, 4.01 ], "sample_prices": { "-1": { "timestamp": 1787097110, "price": 1.0007425462064905 }, "0": { "timestamp": 1787183510, "price": 1.0016032269270831 }, "1": { "timestamp": 1787269900, "price": 1.0010018738618545 }, "7": { "timestamp": 1787788310, "price": 1.0005764029561026 } }, "transactions_sample": [ "0x523e989ca21c27ee641dff97b522260f2045352ac0b45950fd4901d2f2d80adb", "0xdf20c4008092681dce9e76f684189f70cbfda4a82e65ec25e312e4aac2abd034" ] }, { "date": "2026-09-21", "chain": "Ethereum", "transactions": 18, "actual_bold": 604136.5506250252, "unique_troves": 15, "hit_rows": 46, "amount_weighted_fee_percent": 1.137611565475705, "amount_weighted_oracle_gap_percent": 1.0898379999434895, "by_branch_bold": { "WETH": 113995.5527, "wstETH": 490140.998, "rETH": 0 }, "borrow_rate_range_percent": [ 0.7, 2.4 ], "sample_prices": { "-1": { "timestamp": 1789948300, "price": 0.9952215185404687 }, "0": { "timestamp": 1790034680, "price": 0.9951966225670209 }, "1": { "timestamp": 1790121100, "price": 0.9964386246928978 }, "7": { "timestamp": 1790639500, "price": 0.9964791054573086 } }, "transactions_sample": [ "0xf30d840af8eb22ab4d562045dc90e352ff6ad17da967f96fa89fddd178f513b8", "0x1630115b1ed10d70661e9e4e4660ece48fc92908c12ae865ec32adb11ae80ad4" ] } ] } }, { "id": "e4", "text": "The collector values BOLD using the preceding block's Curve spot price, falling back to Uniswap v3/v4, and collateral using an ETH-market reference plus LST conversion. Across the export **259 transactions**, totaling **8.203m BOLD**, had that BOLD quote at or above $1. On March 23 and August 19 the amount-weighted market/oracle collateral gap was respectively **4.0767%** and **3.3263%**. These observations contradict a literal “redemptions happen only below $1” rule. They do not prove the quoted BOLD acquisition cost was executable for the whole trade. Source: collector pricing methodology, export.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://github.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/blob/d346a4f0420bbd5f3a3abc091218eb291da34a68/worker.js", "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/f7d021bbfe83ceaeac61b3c60537b74606ea9490/redemptions.json" ], "date": "2026-10-29", "figures": { "quotes_at_least_one": 259, "redeemed_bold_with_quote_at_least_one": 8202961.073773026 } }, { "id": "e5", "text": "An oracle valuing collateral below its realizable market price can make redemption profitable even when the stablecoin is near or above parity. Redemption activity then combines peg arbitrage with oracle-gap arbitrage; volume alone is an unreliable peg-health score. The June discount narrowed after a week but did not instantly disappear; September's selected daily samples also stayed below parity a week later. Neither observation identifies redemption's counterfactual causal contribution. Sources: e2–e4 observations and price-feed implementation.", "label": "inference", "sources": [ "https://github.com/liquity/bold/blob/abe7cbfbd465fba3812282c51773455766a70e96/contracts/src/PriceFeeds/WETHPriceFeed.sol", "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/f7d021bbfe83ceaeac61b3c60537b74606ea9490/redemptions.json", "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/f7d021bbfe83ceaeac61b3c60537b74606ea9490/trovehits.json", "https://coins.llama.fi/chart/ethereum:0x6440f144b7e50D6a8439336510312d2F54beB01D?start=1748217600&span=500&period=1d", "https://github.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/blob/d346a4f0420bbd5f3a3abc091218eb291da34a68/worker.js" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "c15", "text": "Normal routing uses positive **outside debt**, `max(branch debt − branch SP deposits, 0)`, to allocate a redemption across eligible branches; rates order troves **inside each branch**. If all eligible outside debts are zero, the registry falls back to branch debt. Shutdown eligibility and iteration limits can further constrain actual execution. Ordinary branch `redeemCollateral` requires the registry caller, so an external redeemer cannot simply bypass allocation with a direct normal TroveManager call. The original system-wide rate queue and its cheapest-branch recommendation are withdrawn. Sources: registry, TroveManager caller check.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://github.com/liquity/bold/blob/d262669ef3c4d37bf0544df3bb2624c07b8a5ee0/contracts/src/CollateralRegistry.sol", "https://github.com/liquity/bold/blob/d262669ef3c4d37bf0544df3bb2624c07b8a5ee0/contracts/src/TroveManager.sol" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "b1", "text": "Measured cumulative BOLD branch incidence in the export is **10.798m WETH (22.70%)**, **32.294m wstETH (67.90%)**, **4.469m rETH (9.40%)**. At October 29 the respective debt/SP observations were **14.013m/8.530m**, **21.463m/9.528m**, and **4.055m/4.589m BOLD**. Positive outside debt was thus **5.483m/11.934m/zero**, implying roughly **31.48%/68.52%/zero** normal allocation under that frozen state, not a prediction for future transactions. Sources: branch hit history, snapshot.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/f7d021bbfe83ceaeac61b3c60537b74606ea9490/trovehits.json", "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/f7d021bbfe83ceaeac61b3c60537b74606ea9490/troves.json" ], "date": "2026-10-29", "figures": { "historical_branch_redemptions": [ { "chain": "Ethereum", "branch": "WETH", "hit_rows": 3113, "distinct_troves": 143, "redeemed_bold": 10797963.5251, "share": 0.22703622251882674, "batch_redeemed_bold": 694456.1697 }, { "chain": "Ethereum", "branch": "wstETH", "hit_rows": 3438, "distinct_troves": 164, "redeemed_bold": 32293963.9575, "share": 0.6790076267646996, "batch_redeemed_bold": 2612230.1799 }, { "chain": "Ethereum", "branch": "rETH", "hit_rows": 1653, "distinct_troves": 62, "redeemed_bold": 4468604.5121, "share": 0.09395615071299968, "batch_redeemed_bold": 245099.60330000002 } ], "snapshot_branches": [ { "index": 0, "name": "WETH", "troveManager": "0x7bcb64b2c9206a5b699ed43363f6f98d4776cf5a", "troveNFT": "0x1a0fc0b843afd9140267d25d4e575cb37a838013", "debt": 14012997.11795, "coll": 10611.764762645265, "spDeposits": 8530466.708254535, "oraclePrice": 2342.29581679, "marketPrice": 2344.9896796347552, "lstRate": 1, "mcr": 1.1, "ccr": 1.5, "scr": 1.1, "lastZombie": null }, { "index": 1, "name": "wstETH", "troveManager": "0xa2895d6a3bf110561dfe4b71ca539d84e1928b22", "troveNFT": "0x857aecebf75f1012dc18e15020c97096aea31b04", "debt": 21462635.57287319, "coll": 17828.786254478142, "spDeposits": 9528150.61178374, "oraclePrice": 2935.1170319763914, "marketPrice": 2925.1498731416464, "lstRate": 1.2474041564213854, "mcr": 1.2, "ccr": 1.6, "scr": 1.2, "lastZombie": null }, { "index": 2, "name": "rETH", "troveManager": "0xb2b2abeb5c357a234363ff5d180912d319e3e19e", "troveNFT": "0x7ae430e25b67f19b431e1d1dc048a5bcf24c0873", "debt": 4055327.036629929, "coll": 5599.829530306668, "spDeposits": 4589134.950907972, "oraclePrice": 2750.8799969386246, "marketPrice": 2754.447251500498, "lstRate": 1.1746095411087345, "mcr": 1.2, "ccr": 1.6, "scr": 1.2, "lastZombie": null } ] } }, { "id": "b2", "text": "The developer documentation identifies a way to influence the mix indirectly: temporarily deposit BOLD in unwanted branches' Stability Pools, reducing their outside debt, then redeem. It also identifies cheaper aggregate fees from splitting a redeemer's large redemption into smaller calls, subject to gas and competition. These are documented economic surfaces, not measured proof that a named redeemer used them. Source: pinned known-issues discussion.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://github.com/liquity/bold/blob/d262669ef3c4d37bf0544df3bb2624c07b8a5ee0/README.md#known-issues" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "b3", "text": "Cumulative branch shares do not identify redeemers' preferences: changing debt/SP balances mechanically change the mix. No transaction-by-transaction study of temporary deposits, slippage and route choice was completed. Nor were equivalent fork event panels reconstructed. Source: routing and export methodology.", "label": "uncertain", "sources": [ "https://github.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/blob/d346a4f0420bbd5f3a3abc091218eb291da34a68/worker.js" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "g1", "text": "Higher rates buy more lower-rate debt ahead of a borrower within its branch. Equal-rate placement also matters: the FAQ specifies **last-in-first-redeemed**, so the newest opening/rate adjustment at the same rate goes first. A high collateral ratio alone does not buy normal v2 queue priority. Source: redemption and delegation FAQ.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://docs.liquity.org/v2-faq/redemptions-and-delegation" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "g2", "text": "A redemption leaving debt below **2,000 BOLD** moves the position out of the active sorted list. The **last pending zombie with nonzero debt** is handled first by subsequent redemptions; it is inaccurate to say every dormant trove is always first. Code checks `lastZombieTroveId` before traversing the sorted list. This prevents deliberate accumulation of indefinitely unredeemable residual debt through ordinary partial redemptions. Source: TroveManager redemption loop.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://github.com/liquity/bold/blob/d262669ef3c4d37bf0544df3bb2624c07b8a5ee0/contracts/src/TroveManager.sol" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "g3", "text": "Equal-rate splitting is not established as a free escape, but the original categorical “splitting does not help” is withdrawn. Minimum debt, tie placement, gas, upfront fees, rate diversification and zombie handling all affect outcomes. Borrower splitting and redeemer chunking are different strategies. Paying a higher annual rate protects against a finite amount of ordinary redemption demand, not every future wave or urgent shutdown redemption. Sources: sorted-list code, TroveManager.", "label": "inference", "sources": [ "https://github.com/liquity/bold/blob/abe7cbfbd465fba3812282c51773455766a70e96/contracts/src/SortedTroves.sol", "https://github.com/liquity/bold/blob/abe7cbfbd465fba3812282c51773455766a70e96/contracts/src/TroveManager.sol" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "g4", "text": "Rapidly raising then lowering a rate around a pending redemption is a documented reason for the premature-adjustment fee. The safeguard creates a cost, not a proof that evasion never occurs. In branch Safety Mode, premature changes can actually be disallowed because their fee would worsen collateralization; this differs from ordinary cooldown economics. Source: borrower operations, November 5, 2025 Safety Mode explanation.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://github.com/liquity/bold/blob/abe7cbfbd465fba3812282c51773455766a70e96/contracts/src/BorrowerOperations.sol", "https://www.liquity.org/blog/liquity-v2-safety-mode" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "g5", "text": "The dashboard estimates cumulative builder/priority payments of **$43,705**, and base-fee costs of **$5,678**, across recorded BOLD redemptions. These are redeemer-side modeled costs, not borrower testimonials or evidence that a borrower front-ran a specific transaction. Source: exported stats.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/f7d021bbfe83ceaeac61b3c60537b74606ea9490/stats.json" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "c24", "text": "No independently verified borrower testimonial quantifying an extra APR paid specifically to avoid redemption was established. Contract and manager fees, lost exposure, re-leveraging gas/slippage and migration effort are identifiable costs; they do not justify inventing a universal borrower-loss percentage. The Electisec USDaf audit lead returned a page shell, so its alleged oracle-update front-running finding is not repeated as a verified finding. Source attempted: Electisec USDaf V2 audit.", "label": "uncertain", "sources": [ "https://reports.electisec.com/2025-05-Asymmetry-USDaf-V2" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "c25", "text": "Frontend releases supply concrete changes relevant to rate selection: **June 28, 2025 v1.5.0** corrected per-branch debt-in-front calculations; **September 29, 2025 v1.8.1** documents previous understatement for rates outside 0.1% increments and omission of pending debt. It adds precise debt-in-front support and delegate browsing. These are interface/data corrections, not evidence of an immutable core change made after observed profitable gaming. Sources: v1.5.0, v1.8.1.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://github.com/liquity/bold/releases/tag/%40liquity2/app-v1.5.0", "https://github.com/liquity/bold/releases/tag/%40liquity2/app-v1.8.1" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "i1", "text": "The first Ethereum v2 deployment launched **January 23, 2025**, supported by contemporaneous integration coverage and legacy supply observations beginning that date. The May 19 page describes the relaunch, not the first launch. Sources: DeFi Saver announcement, January 22, legacy BOLD history.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://blog.defisaver.com/liqity-v2-is-coming-to-defi-saver/", "https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/227" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "c16", "text": "On **February 12, 2025**, Liquity advised exiting Earn/Stability Pools after disclosure of a potential issue. Its February 12–13 updates said it knew of no affected users and described Borrow/Multiply/Stake and backing/redeemability as unaffected. These are **attributed assurances at the time**, not an independent proof that market prices or redemption behavior were unchanged. Source: incident/redeployment updates.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://www.liquity.org/blog/liquity-v2-redeployment" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "c17", "text": "February 13 contemporaneous coverage reported **over $17m protocol outflows in 24 hours**, citing DefiLlama; The Defiant's headline separately reported **$30m**. The earlier report's precise characterization of both as Stability Pool outflows is not preserved: collateral TVL outflows and BOLD SP withdrawals are different series, and the accessible Defiant page did not expose its full calculation. Sources: Cointelegraph, February 13, Defiant headline.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://cointelegraph.com/news/liquity-v2-outflows-17m-investigation-earn-pools", "https://thedefiant.io/news/defi/liquity-protocol-suffers-usd30-million-of-outflows-after-disclosing-v2-bug" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "c18", "text": "On **February 18** Liquity warned that Stability Pool funds could be lost and urged withdrawal; **February 21** announced a developed fix and advised loan closure/holder exit as the deployment would become legacy. March 13 shifted the plan to a multi-week contest and Q2 redeployment; April 30 cited ChainSecurity/Dedaub review; May 13 announced May 19. Fork rewards recognized initial-deployment activity only through February 12. The original speculative motive for that cutoff is removed. Source: dated updates.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://www.liquity.org/blog/liquity-v2-redeployment" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "c19", "text": "Relaunch on **May 19, 2025** followed a five-week contest with **800+ researchers**, per Liquity. Its audit register distinguishes **2024** Recon/Certora/Coinspect core work from ChainSecurity review through May 2025 and Dedaub's May fixes review. This revision does not claim all five firms re-audited the May patch. Sources: relaunch announcement, audit register.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://www.liquity.org/blog/liquity-v2-is-live", "https://docs.liquity.org/v2-documentation/technical-docs-and-audits" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "i2", "text": "ChainSecurity's **May 14, 2025 assessment §2.2.13** documents a minimum remaining SP balance of **one BOLD**, running product precision raised from **10^18 to 10^36**, removal of pool-emptying epochs, and removal of several error-correction mechanisms. A direct diff of the audited January and May `StabilityPool.sol` versions confirms those changes. They are concrete remediation-era changes, replacing the original admission that audits were unread. Sources: assessment, January SP, May SP.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://reports.chainsecurity.com/Liquity/ChainSecurity_Liquity_Bold_Audit.pdf", "https://github.com/liquity/bold/blob/ce0128a31922b4f7f5d79efb57ca6d1cfe6616d0/contracts/src/StabilityPool.sol", "https://github.com/liquity/bold/blob/abe7cbfbd465fba3812282c51773455766a70e96/contracts/src/StabilityPool.sol" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "c20", "text": "Neither those changes nor the Secured-Finance issue establish the exact February BOLD exploit path. The latter explicitly references a **Liquity v1** product-normalization advisory. Inferring “the same bug” across systems is unsafe. No incident-specific exploit reproduction or authoritative root-cause mapping was established here; this is narrower than asserting that no public technical disclosure exists anywhere. Sources: Secured-Finance issue 51, ChainSecurity assessment.", "label": "uncertain", "sources": [ "https://github.com/Secured-Finance/stablecoin-contracts/issues/51", "https://reports.chainsecurity.com/Liquity/ChainSecurity_Liquity_Bold_Audit.pdf" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "c21", "text": "The reported incident concerns SP fund safety, but the wind-down was also an economic event. Legacy supply peaked around **35.972m BOLD on February 12** and was **1.930m on June 1, 2025**; sampled legacy price reached **$0.980618 on March 23**. That is incompatible with treating reported backing as proof of an unaffected peg. Net supply decline cannot be assigned wholly to redemptions rather than repayments. Sources: legacy supply, legacy daily price samples.", "label": "inference", "sources": [ "https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/227", "https://coins.llama.fi/chart/coingecko:liquity-bold?start=1737590400&span=150&period=1d" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "c23", "text": "Liquity's friendly-fork program describes commercial deployment approval under BUSL and lists separate stablecoins on other chains. A listing is not a deployment audit or proof of identical parameters. Its dated announcements identify Felix **April 8, 2025**, Quill **May 7**, Orki **May 15**, Asymmetry **May 23**, and Nerite **July 14**. Felix had a staged rollout, so its public-launch announcement should not be treated as its first-ever minted token. Source: friendly-fork register.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://docs.liquity.org/v2-documentation/friendly-fork-program" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "s1", "text": "The following supply trajectories use DefiLlama stablecoin-unit histories, **not TVL**. BOLD/LUSD are Ethereum-origin coins with bridged circulation included; other rows are named native fork series. Values are rounded, and missing dates are not zero. Quill's indexed history begins January 2025 and its docs distinguish legacy/current addresses, so that series cannot be assumed to represent only the May relaunch. USDaf's two deployments are kept separate. Sources: BOLD, LUSD, Felix, Quill, Orki, USDaf legacy, USDaf V2, Nerite, Quill addresses.\n\n| Coin / native chain | 2025-06-01 | 2025-12-31 | 2026-06-30 | 2026-10-29 |\n|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| BOLD / Ethereum, relaunched | 32.764m | 40.470m | 30.409m | 39.530m |\n| LUSD / Ethereum | 41.319m | 35.090m | 27.869m | 25.675m |\n| feUSD / HyperEVM | 56.047m | 19.776m | 14.100m | 9.253m |\n| USDQ / Scroll, indexed series | 223,022 | 143,338 | 132,308 | 117,291 |\n| USDK / Swellchain | 872,572 | 22,295 | 2,181 | unavailable; last history 2,181 on July 6 |\n| USDaf / Ethereum, first deployment | unavailable | 14,451 | 2,822 | 2,650 |\n| USDaf V2 / Ethereum | not yet indexed | 2.013m | 341,287 | 223,472 |\n| USND / Arbitrum | not yet indexed | 1.600m | 48,611 | 27,658 |", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/269", "https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/8", "https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/251", "https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/228", "https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/265", "https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/273", "https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/295", "https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/287", "https://docs.quill.finance/documentation/contract-addresses" ], "date": "2026-10-29", "figures": { "supply_histories": [ { "id": "269", "name": "Liquity BOLD", "source": "https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/269", "units": "stablecoin tokens, not TVL; Ethereum-origin global circulation includes bridges", "first_observation": "2025-05-26T00:00:00+00:00", "last_observation": "2026-10-29T00:00:00+00:00", "peak_in_available_series": { "date": "2025-10-08T00:00:00+00:00", "supply": 49049780 }, "selected_dates": { "2023-01-01": null, "2023-12-31": null, "2024-12-31": null, "2025-06-01": 32764262, "2025-10-10": 48814827, "2025-12-31": 40470053, "2026-06-30": 30408522, "2026-10-28": 38439481, "2026-10-29": 39530230.27704896 } }, { "id": "8", "name": "Liquity USD", "source": "https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/8", "units": "stablecoin tokens, not TVL; Ethereum-origin global circulation includes bridges", "first_observation": "2021-04-05T00:00:00+00:00", "last_observation": "2026-10-29T00:00:00+00:00", "peak_in_available_series": { "date": "2021-05-14T00:00:00+00:00", "supply": 1557155052 }, "selected_dates": { "2023-01-01": 179021001, "2023-12-31": 177815954, "2024-12-31": 61425720, "2025-06-01": 41318766, "2025-10-10": 38629954, "2025-12-31": 35090334, "2026-06-30": 27869314, "2026-10-28": 25675255, "2026-10-29": 25675255.41254032 } }, { "id": "251", "name": "Felix feUSD", "source": "https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/251", "units": "stablecoin tokens, not TVL; Ethereum-origin global circulation includes bridges", "first_observation": "2025-04-08T00:00:00+00:00", "last_observation": "2026-10-29T00:00:00+00:00", "peak_in_available_series": { "date": "2025-07-14T00:00:00+00:00", "supply": 82507682 }, "selected_dates": { "2023-01-01": null, "2023-12-31": null, "2024-12-31": null, "2025-06-01": 56047139, "2025-10-10": 50170398, "2025-12-31": 19775578, "2026-06-30": 14100082, "2026-10-28": 9251826, "2026-10-29": 9253156.004656339 } }, { "id": "295", "name": "Asymmetry USDaf V2", "source": "https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/295", "units": "stablecoin tokens, not TVL; Ethereum-origin global circulation includes bridges", "first_observation": "2025-08-15T00:00:00+00:00", "last_observation": "2026-10-29T00:00:00+00:00", "peak_in_available_series": { "date": "2025-10-05T00:00:00+00:00", "supply": 16763354 }, "selected_dates": { "2023-01-01": null, "2023-12-31": null, "2024-12-31": null, "2025-06-01": null, "2025-10-10": 15633938, "2025-12-31": 2012736, "2026-06-30": 341287, "2026-10-28": 225391, "2026-10-29": 223471.60749981328 } }, { "id": "227", "name": "Legacy BOLD", "source": "https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/227", "units": "stablecoin tokens, not TVL; Ethereum-origin global circulation includes bridges", "first_observation": "2025-01-23T00:00:00+00:00", "last_observation": "2026-10-29T00:00:00+00:00", "peak_in_available_series": { "date": "2025-02-12T00:00:00+00:00", "supply": 35972138 }, "selected_dates": { "2023-01-01": null, "2023-12-31": null, "2024-12-31": null, "2025-06-01": 1930040, "2025-10-10": 578314, "2025-12-31": 429653, "2026-06-30": 228808, "2026-10-28": 201388, "2026-10-29": 201387.7461608113 } }, { "id": "228", "name": "Quill USD", "source": "https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/228", "units": "stablecoin tokens, not TVL; Ethereum-origin global circulation includes bridges", "first_observation": "2025-01-28T00:00:00+00:00", "last_observation": "2026-10-29T00:00:00+00:00", "peak_in_available_series": { "date": "2025-02-03T00:00:00+00:00", "supply": 417149 }, "selected_dates": { "2023-01-01": null, "2023-12-31": null, "2024-12-31": null, "2025-06-01": 223022, "2025-10-10": 281246, "2025-12-31": 143338, "2026-06-30": 132308, "2026-10-28": 117291, "2026-10-29": 117290.89839452125 } }, { "id": "287", "name": "Nerite USND", "source": "https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/287", "units": "stablecoin tokens, not TVL; Ethereum-origin global circulation includes bridges", "first_observation": "2025-07-15T00:00:00+00:00", "last_observation": "2026-10-29T00:00:00+00:00", "peak_in_available_series": { "date": "2025-09-21T00:00:00+00:00", "supply": 2712729 }, "selected_dates": { "2023-01-01": null, "2023-12-31": null, "2024-12-31": null, "2025-06-01": null, "2025-10-10": 2548986, "2025-12-31": 1600340, "2026-06-30": 48611, "2026-10-28": 27658, "2026-10-29": 27658.34915430883 } }, { "id": "273", "name": "Asymmetry USDaf", "source": "https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/273", "units": "stablecoin tokens, not TVL; Ethereum-origin global circulation includes bridges", "first_observation": "2025-06-10T00:00:00+00:00", "last_observation": "2026-10-29T00:00:00+00:00", "peak_in_available_series": { "date": "2025-06-20T00:00:00+00:00", "supply": 5643125 }, "selected_dates": { "2023-01-01": null, "2023-12-31": null, "2024-12-31": null, "2025-06-01": null, "2025-10-10": 15405, "2025-12-31": 14451, "2026-06-30": 2822, "2026-10-28": 2650, "2026-10-29": 2649.7228146085613 } }, { "id": "265", "name": "Orki USD", "source": "https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/265", "units": "stablecoin tokens, not TVL; Ethereum-origin global circulation includes bridges", "first_observation": "2025-05-16T00:00:00+00:00", "last_observation": "2026-07-06T00:00:00+00:00", "peak_in_available_series": { "date": "2025-05-20T00:00:00+00:00", "supply": 1124385 }, "selected_dates": { "2023-01-01": null, "2023-12-31": null, "2024-12-31": null, "2025-06-01": 872572, "2025-10-10": 125480, "2025-12-31": 22295, "2026-06-30": 2181, "2026-10-28": null, "2026-10-29": null } } ] } }, { "id": "c22", "text": "A concrete missed fork incident occurred on **June 19, 2025**, reported by Asymmetry on **June 22**: USDaf's tBTC branch shut down after a feed update interval of **86,412 seconds** against an **86,400-second** threshold. Wrapper/feed equality handling disagreed, preventing the intended Curve fallback. The team's account also identifies shutdowns of sDAI/sUSDS branches, which lacked fallback feeds, and says affected branches were redeemed with no bad debt or user funds lost. Users were told to unwind; improved-oracle redeployment was planned. The no-loss statement remains **Asymmetry's claim**, not an independently reconciled balance sheet. Source: official incident report.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://medium.com/@asymmetryfin/report-usdaf-oracle-incident-d40feff2ae52" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "i3", "text": "Shutdown redemptions bypass ordinary branch routing, charge no normal redemption fee, give the **2% collateral bonus**, and permit the redeemer to specify troves instead of following rate order in the reviewed BOLD code. The path trades borrower protection for rapid debt clearance. Thus a high-rate trove can be protected in normal operation and still be selected after shutdown. Source: urgentRedemption implementation.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://github.com/liquity/bold/blob/abe7cbfbd465fba3812282c51773455766a70e96/contracts/src/TroveManager.sol" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "i4", "text": "At the October 29 read, Nerite's official site explicitly recommended closing all positions because of **Kelp hack exposure**. This supplies a current adverse-survival signal beyond USDaf. The notice alone does not establish its posting date, loss amount or a USND depeg timeline, so none is supplied. Source: Nerite official notice.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://www.nerite.org/" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "i5", "text": "Fork documentation reveals differences that defeat a blanket copy-paste assumption: Nerite specifies **500 USND** minimum debt and outside-debt routing; Orki describes outside-debt routing and a 0.5%-plus-base-rate fee, but its borrowing article says **$500 minimum** while another page illustrates **2,000**. Felix's FAQ describes the same fee shape and adds a just-in-time liquidation option. These are documentation observations, not complete deployed-code equivalence checks. Ebisu is listed as an Ethereum fork, but no comparable event/supply panel was established. Sources: Nerite, Orki redemptions, Orki borrowing, Felix FAQ, fork register.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://docs.nerite.org/docs/user-docs/redemption-and-delegation", "https://orki-finance.gitbook.io/orki-finance-docs/how-to-use/borrow/user-set-interest-rates/redemptions", "https://orkifinance.substack.com/p/dive-on-orki-borrowing-and-liquidations", "https://usefelix.gitbook.io/docs/lending-products/quickstart/faq", "https://docs.liquity.org/v2-documentation/friendly-fork-program" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "i6", "text": "For **October 10, 2025**, DefiLlama's adapter PR reports test outputs of **$3.79m** liquidated collateral for Ethereum Liquity v2, **$3.63m** for Felix, and **$55.98k** for Nerite. These are adapter-author results, not independently rerun liquidations or redemption amounts. BOLD daily samples on October 9/10/11 were **$0.997778/$1.000264/$1.000065**, with no October 10 redemption in the export. Daily feUSD observations do not verify the critique's intraday-low lead; a claimed **$0.7059** wick must not be substituted for these samples. Sources: adapter PR 10249, BOLD daily series, feUSD daily series.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://github.com/DefiLlama/dimension-adapters/pull/10249", "https://coins.llama.fi/chart/ethereum:0x6440f144b7e50D6a8439336510312d2F54beB01D?start=1748217600&span=500&period=1d", "https://coins.llama.fi/chart/coingecko:felix-feusd?start=1744070400&span=500&period=1d" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "i7", "text": "An older-lineage comparator is Prisma on Ethereum, **March 28, 2024**. Its team/incident-response post-mortem describes insufficient validation in `MigrateTroveZap.onFlashloan`, allowing approved users' positions to be closed and reopened with less collateral, reporting **3,479.24 ETH**, approximately **$12m**, lost. The response included pausing and asking users to revoke delegate approvals. This was not a Liquity-v2 rate-market exploit. It matters because migrations and privileged convenience contracts remain attack surfaces around an otherwise reviewed core. Source: Prisma/LlamaRisk post-mortem.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://www.llamarisk.com/research/risk-prisma-finance-incident-march-28-2024-post-mortem" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "i8", "text": "Raft's November 2023 precision/infinite-mint incident was a useful critique lead, but a protocol-authored post-mortem was not recovered here. It is not counted as a v2 incident or evidence that BOLD had the same bug. Similarly, the alleged Coinspect BOLD-05 cross-branch oracle finding was not independently extracted, so no finding ID or resolution is asserted. These remain explicitly unverified additions rather than padded incident coverage. Source leads: Raft contemporaneous account, Coinspect audit.", "label": "uncertain", "sources": [ "https://blockworks.com/news/exploit-ether-defi-protocol", "https://www.coinspect.com/doc/Coinspect%20-%20Smart%20Contract%20Audit%20-%20Liquity%20-%20Bold%20-%20v241231.pdf" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "c27", "text": "**Minimum size:** no universal minimum viable stablecoin or branch supply is identified by this evidence. The reference **2,000 BOLD minimum trove debt** is a gas/dust design constraint, not a minimum market capitalization. Forks shrank sharply, but supply contraction alone does not prove insufficient size caused failure. Measure separately stablecoin executable depth, collateral exit depth, SP/debt coverage, borrower concentration and profitable redemption capacity. A launch gate can be based on stress tests of those quantities; this report does not certify a numerical gate. Sources: c2, s1, c22; verified constants.", "label": "inference", "sources": [ "https://eth.blockscout.com/api/v2/smart-contracts/0xf949982b91c8c61e952b3ba942cbbfaef5386684", "https://github.com/liquity/bold/blob/abe7cbfbd465fba3812282c51773455766a70e96/contracts/src/Dependencies/Constants.sol", "https://docs.liquity.org/v2-documentation/technical-docs-and-audits", "https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/269", "https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/8", "https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/251", "https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/228", "https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/265", "https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/273", "https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/295", "https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/287", "https://docs.quill.finance/documentation/contract-addresses", "https://medium.com/@asymmetryfin/report-usdaf-oracle-incident-d40feff2ae52" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "d1", "text": "**Redemption fee:** the evidence supports **0.5% as Liquity's implemented reference floor**, not its optimality for imdUSD. With correctly valued collateral and negligible other costs, a floor of 0.5% alone makes arbitrage start below approximately **$0.995**, before gas, execution slippage and the dynamic surcharge. From a near-zero base rate, a single redemption of 1% of supply adds about one percentage point, yielding roughly **1.5%** total fee; thin supply therefore makes a fixed-size trade expensive quickly. Borrower-set rates plus a fee are not proven empirically superior to every alternative. Sources: May registry, c12/e2 measured fees.", "label": "inference", "sources": [ "https://github.com/liquity/bold/blob/abe7cbfbd465fba3812282c51773455766a70e96/contracts/src/CollateralRegistry.sol", "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/f7d021bbfe83ceaeac61b3c60537b74606ea9490/redemptions.json", "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/f7d021bbfe83ceaeac61b3c60537b74606ea9490/trovehits.json", "https://coins.llama.fi/chart/ethereum:0x6440f144b7e50D6a8439336510312d2F54beB01D?start=1748217600&span=500&period=1d" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "d2", "text": "**Rate floor:** **0.5%** is the implemented BOLD lower bound, not evidence of the correct floor for a new collateral. The earlier recommendation to index the floor periodically to an undefined “on-chain risk-free yield” is withdrawn. The 2023 carry explanation motivates a competing-yield shock test, not a prescribed benchmark or governance cadence. Test rapid changes in outside yields together with adjustment fees, SP participation and collateral stress. A higher floor raises borrower costs; it cannot manufacture demand, repair a contract bug or make illiquid collateral saleable. Sources: c8, c2, c20 and historical rate observations.", "label": "inference", "sources": [ "https://www.liquity.org/blog/liquity-q3-2023-report", "https://github.com/liquity/bold/blob/abe7cbfbd465fba3812282c51773455766a70e96/contracts/src/Dependencies/Constants.sol", "https://eth.blockscout.com/api/v2/smart-contracts/0xf949982b91c8c61e952b3ba942cbbfaef5386684", "https://docs.liquity.org/v2-documentation/technical-docs-and-audits", "https://github.com/Secured-Finance/stablecoin-contracts/issues/51", "https://reports.chainsecurity.com/Liquity/ChainSecurity_Liquity_Bold_Audit.pdf" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "d3", "text": "**Branch design:** monitor outside debt and SP incentives, rather than assuming the lowest-average-rate collateral absorbs redemptions. A newly added thin-SP branch may receive a high share relative to its size; absolute outside debt determines the share, not coverage ratio alone. Yield-bearing assets do not mechanically attract more redemption. Test one branch's SP exit, temporary deposits that alter routing, oracle staleness, and correlated collateral falls. USDaf demonstrates that an oracle boundary can activate an irreversible unwind, even without an economic insolvency event. Sources: c15, b1, c22 and i3.", "label": "inference", "sources": [ "https://github.com/liquity/bold/blob/d262669ef3c4d37bf0544df3bb2624c07b8a5ee0/contracts/src/CollateralRegistry.sol", "https://github.com/liquity/bold/blob/d262669ef3c4d37bf0544df3bb2624c07b8a5ee0/contracts/src/TroveManager.sol", "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/f7d021bbfe83ceaeac61b3c60537b74606ea9490/trovehits.json", "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/f7d021bbfe83ceaeac61b3c60537b74606ea9490/troves.json", "https://medium.com/@asymmetryfin/report-usdaf-oracle-incident-d40feff2ae52", "https://github.com/liquity/bold/blob/abe7cbfbd465fba3812282c51773455766a70e96/contracts/src/TroveManager.sol" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "d4", "text": "**Reflexive-collateral comparator:** Synthetix is not a Liquity fork, but is relevant to staked issuer-token backing. SIP-420 pooled SNX debt; Synthetix's **May 15, 2025** update acknowledged peg instability, described sUSD around **$0.93**, and announced discretionary buybacks capped at **$1m/day**. **SIP-423**, created **June 12, 2026**, is currently marked implemented and specifies retirement of legacy sUSD on Ethereum/Optimism into locked/vesting SNX entitlements. This is not proof that every proposed implementation phase completed; some phases remain explicitly deferred. Sources: SIP-420, official peg update, SIP-423.", "label": "fact", "sources": [ "https://sips.synthetix.io/sips/sip-420", "https://blog.synthetix.io/synthetix-susd-peg-update/", "https://sips.synthetix.io/sips/sip-423" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "d5", "text": "For staked IMD, redemption delivers the asset whose value may already depend on confidence in the same ecosystem. Stress can lower collateral value, induce sales by redeemers and liquidators, and reduce willingness to hold either token. ETH/LST evidence does not calibrate that feedback. Test **50% and 80% collateral-price declines as hypothetical scenarios**, jointly with stablecoin selling, SP withdrawal, oracle failure, and slow collateral exits. Rate floors, small-trove rules and the absence of custodial reserves do not by themselves break this feedback. The sUSD example supports testing incentive discontinuities; its price path is not an imdUSD forecast. Sources: d4 and USDaf oracle experience.", "label": "inference", "sources": [ "https://medium.com/@asymmetryfin/report-usdaf-oracle-incident-d40feff2ae52", "https://sips.synthetix.io/sips/sip-420", "https://blog.synthetix.io/synthetix-susd-peg-update/", "https://sips.synthetix.io/sips/sip-423" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "c26", "text": "**Above $1:** redemption itself does not supply a tight upper peg defence. Mint-and-sell and discounted debt repayment can provide other arbitrage incentives; v1 documentation describes a broad MCR-related upper boundary around **$1.10**, economically different from tight parity. The critique's proposed generic ceiling `1/(1−fee)` is not a collateralized-system guarantee: fees alone omit collateral commitment, liquidation risk, financing and exit conditions. Nor is all above-parity response limited to borrowers lowering rates. Oracle-gap redemptions at above-parity quotes in e4 further invalidate the original categorical formulation. Source: v1 peg explanation, e4 observations.", "label": "inference", "sources": [ "https://docs.liquity.org/liquity-v1/faq/lusd-redemptions", "https://github.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/blob/d346a4f0420bbd5f3a3abc091218eb291da34a68/worker.js", "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/f7d021bbfe83ceaeac61b3c60537b74606ea9490/redemptions.json" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "d6", "text": "**Hook implications:** analyze an upper-side source of stablecoin supply and a lower-side path to economically realizable collateral separately. A dynamic fee can redirect trading or compensate LPs; it does not demonstrate a source of dollars or stablecoins to restore parity elsewhere. Without a supplied hook specification, no inventory flow, minting permission or liquidity-shaping scheme is validated here. Simulate sandwiching of dynamic fees, toxic flow, oracle lag, finite arbitrage capital and the possibility that the defended pool is itself used as an oracle. The hook must not permit an attacker to create borrowing capacity by temporarily marking IMD up in that pool. Sources: BOLD price-feed design, b2, e4 and d5; these are proposed tests, not findings about an unseen hook.", "label": "inference", "sources": [ "https://github.com/liquity/bold/blob/abe7cbfbd465fba3812282c51773455766a70e96/contracts/src/PriceFeeds/WSTETHPriceFeed.sol", "https://github.com/liquity/bold/blob/d262669ef3c4d37bf0544df3bb2624c07b8a5ee0/README.md#known-issues", "https://github.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/blob/d346a4f0420bbd5f3a3abc091218eb291da34a68/worker.js", "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/f7d021bbfe83ceaeac61b3c60537b74606ea9490/redemptions.json", "https://medium.com/@asymmetryfin/report-usdaf-oracle-incident-d40feff2ae52", "https://sips.synthetix.io/sips/sip-420", "https://blog.synthetix.io/synthetix-susd-peg-update/", "https://sips.synthetix.io/sips/sip-423" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "gap1", "text": "A full daily or block-by-block borrower-rate panel, event-level voluntary repricing latency, and a causal manager/manual comparison remain missing. Eleven historical active-trove snapshots plus the current snapshot materially improve coverage but cannot identify a stationary equilibrium or a full frontier-clustering distribution. UI versions must be controlled in any interpretation of historical behavior. Sources: r1–r5, frontend correction.", "label": "uncertain", "sources": [ "https://github.com/liquity/bold/releases/tag/%40liquity2/app-v1.8.1", "https://github.com/liquity/bold/blob/abe7cbfbd465fba3812282c51773455766a70e96/contracts/src/MultiTroveGetter.sol", "https://eth.blockscout.com/address/0xfa61db085510c64b83056db3a7acf3b6f631d235", "https://eth.drpc.org", "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/f7d021bbfe83ceaeac61b3c60537b74606ea9490/troves.json", "https://github.com/liquity/bold/blob/abe7cbfbd465fba3812282c51773455766a70e96/contracts/src/BorrowerOperations.sol" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "gap2", "text": "Matched intraday BOLD/LUSD executable prices around every redemption wave, historical collateral ratios for all affected LUSD troves, complete fork redemption panels, and verified borrower cost reports remain absent. Price samples show persistence and direction but do not prove peg recovery caused by redemption. The fork supply histories are not sufficient to rank thin-market peg quality; feUSD's sampled **$0.967418 on August 19, 2026** is not proof of an intraday minimum or a redemption failure. Sources: feUSD samples, c11–e5.", "label": "uncertain", "sources": [ "https://coins.llama.fi/chart/coingecko:felix-feusd?start=1744070400&span=500&period=1d", "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/liquity/dev/main/packages/lib-ethers/deployments/default/mainnet.json", "https://eth.blockscout.com/api?module=logs&action=getLogs&address=0xA39739EF8b0231DbFA0DcdA07d7e29faAbCf4bb2&fromBlock=16308190&toBlock=26295123&topic0=0x43a3f4082a4dbc33d78e317d2497d3a730bc7fc3574159dcea1056e62e5d9ad8", "https://github.com/liquity/bold/blob/abe7cbfbd465fba3812282c51773455766a70e96/contracts/src/PriceFeeds/WETHPriceFeed.sol", "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/f7d021bbfe83ceaeac61b3c60537b74606ea9490/redemptions.json", "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/f7d021bbfe83ceaeac61b3c60537b74606ea9490/trovehits.json", "https://coins.llama.fi/chart/ethereum:0x6440f144b7e50D6a8439336510312d2F54beB01D?start=1748217600&span=500&period=1d", "https://github.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/blob/d346a4f0420bbd5f3a3abc091218eb291da34a68/worker.js" ], "date": "2026-10-29" }, { "id": "gap3", "text": "The exact February BOLD vulnerability, the complete deployed-code routing differences of every fork, Electisec's alleged front-running finding, Coinspect BOLD-05's status, and Nerite's incident chronology/loss reconciliation remain unverified. No optimal launch supply, fee, rate floor or hook design is established. The 2020–2021 swarm material is not repeated: this report uses the later sUSD episode directly and makes no claim to have checked the earlier campaign. Sources: c20, c24, i4–i8, d4–d6.", "label": "uncertain", "sources": [ "https://github.com/Secured-Finance/stablecoin-contracts/issues/51", "https://reports.chainsecurity.com/Liquity/ChainSecurity_Liquity_Bold_Audit.pdf", "https://reports.electisec.com/2025-05-Asymmetry-USDaf-V2", "https://www.nerite.org/", "https://blockworks.com/news/exploit-ether-defi-protocol", "https://www.coinspect.com/doc/Coinspect%20-%20Smart%20Contract%20Audit%20-%20Liquity%20-%20Bold%20-%20v241231.pdf", "https://sips.synthetix.io/sips/sip-420", "https://blog.synthetix.io/synthetix-susd-peg-update/", "https://sips.synthetix.io/sips/sip-423", "https://github.com/liquity/bold/blob/abe7cbfbd465fba3812282c51773455766a70e96/contracts/src/PriceFeeds/WSTETHPriceFeed.sol", "https://github.com/liquity/bold/blob/d262669ef3c4d37bf0544df3bb2624c07b8a5ee0/README.md#known-issues", "https://github.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/blob/d346a4f0420bbd5f3a3abc091218eb291da34a68/worker.js", "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/f7d021bbfe83ceaeac61b3c60537b74606ea9490/redemptions.json", "https://medium.com/@asymmetryfin/report-usdaf-oracle-incident-d40feff2ae52" ], "date": "2026-10-29" } ], "gaps": [ { "id": "G1", "text": "Full high-frequency borrower-rate history and frontier clustering, separated from UI measurement artifacts and changing debt weights.", "status": "partly filled by eleven historical snapshots plus current snapshot" }, { "id": "G2", "text": "Causal impact of rate managers versus manual borrowers and borrower-level reaction latency.", "status": "unresolved; adoption and fees now measured" }, { "id": "G3", "text": "Executable intraday peg before/during/after every BOLD, LUSD and fork wave, including legacy wind-down.", "status": "partly filled; selected daily windows, BOLD monthly panel and LUSD annual logs" }, { "id": "G4", "text": "Historical collateral ratios and full borrower incidence for LUSD; matched fork branch redemption and liquidation panels.", "status": "unresolved" }, { "id": "G5", "text": "Exact February 2025 BOLD vulnerability exploit path and authoritative mapping to fixes.", "status": "unresolved; audited SP code changes established" }, { "id": "G6", "text": "Borrower-reported premium and realized re-leveraging costs; observed borrower front-running and temporary-SP routing manipulation.", "status": "unresolved; modeled redeemer costs and safeguards documented" }, { "id": "G7", "text": "Electisec alleged front-running finding, Coinspect BOLD-05 resolution, Raft protocol post-mortem, Nerite incident chronology and loss reconciliation.", "status": "unverified leads; not asserted as established findings" }, { "id": "G8", "text": "Deployment-level code equivalence for Quill, Felix, Orki, Nerite and USDaf V2; Ebisu comparable supply/event history.", "status": "partly filled by documentation and separated supply series" }, { "id": "G9", "text": "Optimal minimum launch supply, redemption fee, rate floor, reflexive-collateral calibration or validation of an imdUSD hook.", "status": "not identified by the evidence" } ], "evidence_manifest": [ { "path": "evidence/redemptions.json", "url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/f7d021bbfe83ceaeac61b3c60537b74606ea9490/redemptions.json", "read_date": "2026-10-29", "kind": "third-party dashboard export", "sha256": "0ab7de405fbb0764d7961378c3009ff2fce408bbab485ce843a639c1705f4843" }, { "path": "evidence/trovehits.json", "url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/f7d021bbfe83ceaeac61b3c60537b74606ea9490/trovehits.json", "read_date": "2026-10-29", "kind": "third-party dashboard export", "sha256": "c6303db9113db2e435ad0e67defff81b138d1979eea1967a2c8d03126531dafb" }, { "path": "evidence/troves.json", "url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/f7d021bbfe83ceaeac61b3c60537b74606ea9490/troves.json", "read_date": "2026-10-29", "kind": "third-party dashboard export", "sha256": "0341f282dcb167a7220289d5d8baf7e59a7f73ea1d06f4c351f589e17f2c1ae1" }, { "path": "evidence/status.json", "url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/f7d021bbfe83ceaeac61b3c60537b74606ea9490/status.json", "read_date": "2026-10-29", "kind": "third-party dashboard export", "sha256": "e5eb0fcb1343d4e9fbc20a411f065bd4c358470e4ce87d3f47cbd37381bdd125" }, { "path": "evidence/stats.json", "url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/oordinal/bold-redemption-dashboard/f7d021bbfe83ceaeac61b3c60537b74606ea9490/stats.json", "read_date": "2026-10-29", "kind": "third-party dashboard export", "sha256": "d13fa6d992ddf8179aeb13ff620bb6a8697cd9b28703418c7ba45abfe9db49a0" }, { "path": "evidence/lusd-logs.json", "url": "https://eth.blockscout.com/api?module=logs&action=getLogs&address=0xA39739EF8b0231DbFA0DcdA07d7e29faAbCf4bb2&fromBlock=16308190&toBlock=26295123&topic0=0x43a3f4082a4dbc33d78e317d2497d3a730bc7fc3574159dcea1056e62e5d9ad8", "read_date": "2026-10-29", "kind": "on-chain logs; 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