{ "item": "fresh7-1", "track": "B", "status": "completed experiment; no promotion", "mechanism": { "name": "Support-consistent uniform-cell arb observation density", "question": "Does the first callback of a new step represent arb or retail?", "isolated_change": "Override dens(x) only: use P[floor((x-c)/HC+N0+0.5)]/HC inside the existing cell support, zero outside; replace linear interpolation between cell centres. All updates, threshold, rival tracking and table fees otherwise inherit the unchanged base.", "causal_path_to_edge": "The base cuts a uniform-cell prior but evaluates arb likelihood with a triangular basis extending half a cell beyond its support. The candidate makes the likelihood support match the cut model. If it prevents false arb readings near support edges, subsequent phase selection, rival synchronization and fees can improve. This is a testable hypothesis, not a guaranteed gain or exact-filter claim.", "distinctness": "Changes the observation density representation at the same 121 cells and 2.5 bps spacing; no threshold sweep, variance adaptation, branch policy blend, static classifier, trade-size likelihood, rival projection, quote probe, history correction, expected-VN integration, invisible-rival transition, tail-risk lookup or trained fee residual. No additional observed signal or learned parameter.", "signal": "Whether the exact arb endpoint falls inside a mass-bearing prior cell, using that cell support rather than interpolated neighboring-centre density.", "control": "cell_density=0 delegates directly to the original dens implementation. The supplied ThrLattice source is unchanged.", "limitations": "A uniform-cell density is discontinuous. Prior cuts still discard subcell position and pin() still represents a delta with a cell. Fixing representation consistency need not improve real latent-price inference or fee edge." }, "frozen_settings": { "frozen_at_utc": "2026-11-10T11:26:40.564110+00:00", "settings": { "thr": 0.9, "qm": "qm_k1e-5.json", "cell_density": 1, "fast": 1 }, "settings_tested": 1, "control": { "cell_density": 0 }, "policy_sha256": "1e029f454975b48ed0617aaca8d7e063c601dc22606e8568fed852e041748a57", "selection": "Single predeclared setting; frozen before any confirmation or holdout run. No model fitting, label training, or holdout retuning." }, "selection_protocol": { "nonzero_settings_tested": 1, "tuning_requested": [ 64000, 64255 ], "confirmation_requested": [ 64256, 64511 ], "holdout_requested": [ 10000, 12047 ], "holdout_runtime_plan": { "planned_prefix": [ 10000, 10511 ], "reason": "512 seeds planned from measured throughput before holdout results, within the 60-minute item budget; not selected by outcome." }, "holdout_scoring_passes_per_arm": 1, "holdout_retuning": false, "offline_label_training": false, "engine_seeds_used": 0, "board_entry": false, "holdout_complete": false }, "measurements": { "tune": { "actual_seed_ranges": [ [ 64000, 64255 ] ], "completed_per_arm": { "candidate": { "n": 256, "seed_ranges": [ [ 64000, 64255 ] ] }, "base": { "n": 256, "seed_ranges": [ [ 64000, 64255 ] ] } }, "candidate_vs_base": { "n": 256, "mean_diff": -0.01922547527808649, "se": 0.01746577590268373, "sum": -4.9217216711901415, "sumsq": 20.00850368250216, "worst5": [ [ 64075, -2.0332843558230707 ], [ 64196, -0.6815963747930027 ], [ 64093, -0.6249554698730435 ], [ 64149, -0.6187800473737752 ], [ 64221, -0.5778598588291288 ] ] }, "candidate_diagnostics": { "n": 256, "first_trades": 1804098, "misreads": 522889, "first_trade_misread_rate": 0.28983403340616753, "price_rms_bps": 13.301674863078825, "price_error_count": 2814917 }, "base_diagnostics": { "n": 256, "first_trades": 1804050, "misreads": 522465, "first_trade_misread_rate": 0.2896067182173443, "price_rms_bps": 13.288132986354066, "price_error_count": 2814846 }, "pair_py_checked": true }, "confirm": { "actual_seed_ranges": [ [ 64256, 64511 ] ], "completed_per_arm": { "candidate": { "n": 256, "seed_ranges": [ [ 64256, 64511 ] ] }, "base": { "n": 256, "seed_ranges": [ [ 64256, 64511 ] ] } }, "candidate_vs_base": { "n": 256, "mean_diff": 0.0022060832755894655, "se": 0.01701006383161469, "sum": 0.5647573185509032, "sumsq": 18.889509388825196, "worst5": [ [ 64431, -0.7069874325222827 ], [ 64429, -0.6844148742925995 ], [ 64472, -0.6545552280168749 ], [ 64356, -0.6109941029619108 ], [ 64276, -0.5777516484659486 ] ] }, "candidate_diagnostics": { "n": 256, "first_trades": 1814015, "misreads": 522035, "first_trade_misread_rate": 0.2877787669892476, "price_rms_bps": 13.238304373660377, "price_error_count": 2843426 }, "base_diagnostics": { "n": 256, "first_trades": 1814017, "misreads": 521690, "first_trade_misread_rate": 0.28758826405706234, "price_rms_bps": 13.233585962516605, "price_error_count": 2843461 }, "pair_py_checked": true }, "hold": { "actual_seed_ranges": [ [ 10000, 10511 ] ], "completed_per_arm": { "candidate": { "n": 512, "seed_ranges": [ [ 10000, 10511 ] ] }, "base": { "n": 512, "seed_ranges": [ [ 10000, 10511 ] ] } }, "candidate_vs_base": { "n": 512, "mean_diff": -0.012841296451492235, "se": 0.011877036083904132, "sum": -6.574743783164024, "sumsq": 36.99128105536383, "worst5": [ [ 10165, -0.6923624174341967 ], [ 10087, -0.6917947484907927 ], [ 10178, -0.6670735850767642 ], [ 10174, -0.6432087655388159 ], [ 10095, -0.6383703280363306 ] ] }, "candidate_diagnostics": { "n": 512, "first_trades": 3619971, "misreads": 1042892, "first_trade_misread_rate": 0.2880940206427068, "price_rms_bps": 13.273536394673453, "price_error_count": 5662202 }, "base_diagnostics": { "n": 512, "first_trades": 3620005, "misreads": 1042566, "first_trade_misread_rate": 0.2880012596667684, "price_rms_bps": 13.259827359033126, "price_error_count": 5662536 }, "candidate_vs_lattice": { "n": 512, "mean_diff": 0.30931547421054684, "se": 0.02197597255469397, "sum": 158.36952279579998, "sumsq": 175.33958375188382, "worst5": [ [ 10235, -1.0614862973758363 ], [ 10395, -1.0578994600733722 ], [ 10009, -1.0098356034714016 ], [ 10226, -0.9759587242547241 ], [ 10336, -0.9166266378711043 ] ] }, "inherited_base_vs_lattice": { "n": 512, "mean_diff": 0.32215677066203907, "se": 0.02180547239841936, "sum": 164.944266578964, "sumsq": 177.53833627351472, "worst5": [ [ 10235, -1.1086062682385318 ], [ 10336, -1.0721474745108708 ], [ 10317, -0.8950199458317911 ], [ 10395, -0.8856527307611941 ], [ 10401, -0.8627090150611139 ] ] }, "lattice_diagnostics": { "n": 512, "first_trades": 3580729, "misreads": 579941, "first_trade_misread_rate": 0.16196171226585424, "price_rms_bps": 13.628552530320386, "price_error_count": 5568470 }, "pair_py_checked": true } }, "checks": { "reference_gates": { "passed": true, "seeds": [ 10000, 10001, 10002 ], "all_four_columns_match_printed_reference_digits": true, "used_for_policy_selection": false }, "control_and_blindness": { "density_integral": 1.0, "zero_change_exact_callbacks": 20742, "hidden_scramble_exact_callbacks": 20742, "seeds": [ 64000, 64001 ], "base_sha256": "663965707d4f20f81ab0ade8ed510742a330605fd9e889d426db1d920abc8958", "hidden_initialization_parameters_scrambled": true }, "diffusion_acceleration": { "callback_parity_both_arms": 21419, "seeds": [ 64002, 64003 ], "exact_arrays_fees_and_state": true }, "density_math": { "normalized_vector_integral": 1.0, "counterexample": { "mass": { "centre_cell": 1.0 }, "query_cell_widths_from_centre": 0.75, "base_density_times_HC": 0.24999999999997158, "candidate_density_times_HC": 0.0, "uniform_cut_interval_cell_widths": [ 0.6, 0.9 ], "cut_mass": 0.0 }, "interpretation": "A concrete support inconsistency in the base representation; not a proof that the candidate is the true Bayesian posterior." }, "online_inputs": "run.Blind passes only is_buy, amountX, amountY, timestamp, reserveX, reserveY. needs_flag is false for every measured policy; no seed, hidden price, rival, run parameter or future callback reaches it.", "scramble_scope": "Identical causal callbacks replayed to two candidate instances through unchanged run.Blind. One wrapper receives flipped arb and arbitrary hidden price/rival/j. Fees and beliefs match exactly. Diagnostics intentionally differ and are not policy inputs.", "acceleration": "Standard-library Python only; precomputed index/weight tuples preserve multiply/add order exactly. fast=0 uses original LatticePolicy.diffuse. No installed dependency. Optional C compiler attempt answered cc: command not found; C was not used or bundled." }, "incremental_cost": { "persistent_slots": 0, "new_online_state": 0, "density_calls": "One per successfully diffused first new-step callback; none on same-step callbacks.", "density_operations": "One index rounding, bounds checks, one probability read and one division. Replaces two probability reads, interpolation weights and their multiply/add operations. No extra lattice cells, diffusion operations, logs or exponentials.", "python_acceleration_memory": "Precomputed constant neighbour tuples only; no additional per-policy state. It is not a proposed Solidity representation.", "gas_estimate": { "measured": false, "incremental_only": true, "range": [ -300, 200 ], "units": "gas per first-new-step callback", "basis": "Rough fixed-point arithmetic/indexing estimate for replacing the existing density evaluation; assumes both cells already accessible in memory. Storage layout and numeric library could dominate. No contract was compiled or executed; total policy gas and port validity are unmeasured." } }, "limitations": [ "Replica-only experiment; no engine or board inference.", "Partial holdout: 512 of 2048 seeds measured within the 60-minute budget; 1536 seeds are unmeasured, not imputed.", "No Solidity parity, runtime, gas or promotion claim.", "Online beliefs and classification diagnostics are summaries, not the objective; paired edge over the supplied base is the economic result.", "Offline replay gates at 10000..10002 are the prescribed reference gates, not candidate holdout tuning." ], "provenance": { "solved_commit": "e65314f88de945f6d055bfc2aab01c482ab6570e", "solved_fetch": "26 files, 0 mismatched", "base_url": "https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/c9d678abb0ed0ee3a31b13a8203b6ee993896db0b6a3875c5c4f52a369bf0434", "base_file_sha256": "663965707d4f20f81ab0ade8ed510742a330605fd9e889d426db1d920abc8958", "reference_table_sha256": { "pol_mid.json": "efbb5ee102db4d312f64565d9bf7232b6becbe02b624164f744a402bbbf2983b", "qm_k1e-5.json": "5ff53e42ca87390e5f65d1caa3f7a480e67a8212fb0670274dfd562b05ba1afd" }, "reference_code_sha256": { "run.py": "54d19a9194ebedee8b947dfaaf8626b1e4ef6f7d1b5aa12e738ec01a5ce401ac", "pair.py": "16497bc5d3b596102fb0c0d7b6bf331dc788ee04c42d537e41f0578115f631db", "replica2.py": "6e37b4e61e1ffa5ffb1e43912ddb8659105989aa986eb48fcd1d7608f8dca685", "latt.py": "ade2aa83f515f80531e97b797ea7da234c2357ba021d722d3577c266f1953300", "real.py": "7fc9f4bdf9a9af094ec2eb0e9a8e8eec8b343c5226bf0ebaa30c798785cb7c58", "evalpol.py": "27fa051b1dfc3a5da824596c59ed5140823049ab05fd18185a4ece1995d65df1", "par.py": "d81d358cf2f54303d120da34c01022e62428c2e9d6b1577f8c30099b2bfd1483", "gates.py": "27541115f7110e8afdd43d8fea6c690398652534be736c1c87bf544ed2f0eda1" }, "numeric_evidence": "Own local unchanged run.py measurements; unchanged pair.py comparisons. Sum and sumsq and weighted diagnostics added by bundled summarize.py. Sources for external reference behavior are in sources.json.", "diagnostic_definitions": "Misreads / first own callbacks of new steps. Price RMS is sqrt(sum of squared 1e4*(m-log(true_price)) over all own callbacks / callback count). SE is sample standard deviation of paired edge differences / sqrt(n)." }, "reproduction": { "instructions": "REPRODUCE.md in archive", "requires": "Pinned solved reference folder with its supplied tables and reference rows; no tables or traces in this archive. Standard-library Python; no installation.", "runner": "Unchanged run.py and pair.py. fastloop:FastBase is semantically the unchanged base with exact-loop acceleration, independently gated against thrpol:ThrLattice. fastloop:FastCell is the isolated candidate.", "code_files": [ "thrpol.py", "cellpol.py", "fastloop.py", "check_cell.py", "check_fast.py", "summarize.py", "REPRODUCE.md" ], "file_sha256": { "thrpol.py": "663965707d4f20f81ab0ade8ed510742a330605fd9e889d426db1d920abc8958", "cellpol.py": "1e029f454975b48ed0617aaca8d7e063c601dc22606e8568fed852e041748a57", "fastloop.py": "9283309b8f6973f1e25393af65a6b2659ca65e942eebece49729240a2582a79f", "check_cell.py": "9d91280a0d6c85597afecefa020d8aaa1fa974b59f0d0121e299f3de4f567450", "check_fast.py": "1d97733cb7cbb5a9fdf42c6d67e7f2ae937b77f380a068d0fc9fc84e02184780", "summarize.py": "54b6d9371f1ccce1aa112e1dcd2fbd2baab230e0d94765441a8362b47ed65caa", "REPRODUCE.md": "1d091ba68bcb41721ad6c8e66dfbeadabac14d3f36f0249943087ff8bbab1747" } }, 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", "code_sha256": "9c43fb6416ed6e9a6b23bb105f6fc8b04d16735ec9f35db428e392fd1004a1c6", "code_format": "base64(zlib(uncompressed USTAR tar)); code_sha256 hashes uncompressed tar bytes", "generated_at_utc": "2026-11-10T12:13:29.332302+00:00", "conclusion": { "incremental_gain_over_base": { "n": 512, "mean_diff": -0.012841296451492235, "se": 0.011877036083904132, "sum": -6.574743783164024, "sumsq": 36.99128105536383, "worst5": [ [ 10165, -0.6923624174341967 ], [ 10087, -0.6917947484907927 ], [ 10178, -0.6670735850767642 ], [ 10174, -0.6432087655388159 ], [ 10095, -0.6383703280363306 ] ] }, "inherited_threshold_gain": { "n": 512, "mean_diff": 0.32215677066203907, "se": 0.02180547239841936, "sum": 164.944266578964, "sumsq": 177.53833627351472, "worst5": [ [ 10235, -1.1086062682385318 ], [ 10336, -1.0721474745108708 ], [ 10317, -0.8950199458317911 ], [ 10395, -0.8856527307611941 ], [ 10401, -0.8627090150611139 ] ] }, "candidate_total_vs_lattice": { "n": 512, "mean_diff": 0.30931547421054684, "se": 0.02197597255469397, "sum": 158.36952279579998, "sumsq": 175.33958375188382, "worst5": [ [ 10235, -1.0614862973758363 ], [ 10395, -1.0578994600733722 ], [ 10009, -1.0098356034714016 ], [ 10226, -0.9759587242547241 ], [ 10336, -0.9166266378711043 ] ] }, "promote_to_port": false, "promotion_bar": 0.3, "reason": "No demonstrated +0.3 incremental gain. A gain over lattice includes the inherited thr=0.9 gain and is not the isolated effect. Partial holdout is not an automatic promotion." }, "holdout_coverage": { "completed_pairs": 512, "requested_pairs": 2048, "missing_pairs": 1536, "evaluated_fraction": 0.25, "not_measured_seed_ranges": [ [ 10512, 12047 ] ], "imputed_pairs": 0 } }