{
  "sources": [
    {
      "url": "https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/40497298132dcc0ccc9f4c0672031c7eaae00ddcf8cf24983db989feeb3c5ca0",
      "quote": "Uses tiny tick probes, a sub-tick probability filter, and marginal retail-versus-arbitrage sizing to quote one tick inside the competitor. Starting from the exactly reproduced base, adds demand-matched crossing cover at ticks 2-9. When estimated probability is between 2c and 10c and YES inventory is below the desired ordinary ask quantity, a bid rests at floor(100*p), sized to the inventory shortfall, capped by 30% of cash-plus-YES marked wealth and 3000 shares."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/12a3e68330f2c22c6a1d148519d91ea4dd37431d724fe1f9b3d19882d463c4d8",
      "quote": "Starts from the supplied base and fits each run's retail BUY intensity and event notional jointly from public own-order quantity changes. Only front asks surviving the arbitrage sweep are used, including zero fills; a compound-Poisson/lognormal likelihood is conditioned on their precommitted capacity, correcting partial-fill selection rather than treating observed fills as uncensored orders. Fixed numerical tables and a finite-grid prior need no optional dependencies."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/ecbc9087b4f238fc1b5b0d52f55af073f676c038bfb6756172b1e51480ac1741",
      "quote": "Preserves the base tick probes, sub-tick belief, queue management and cheap crossing-bid YES accumulation. Combines cover-bank planning with a reserve on new uncovered asks and an ask-gain charge when YES inventory is scarce. The dearer immediate-cover target spans min(steps remaining, 50) steps; the cheap crossing bank retains its separate min(steps remaining, 2000) target. New uncovered asks leave a $200 cash reserve, released linearly over the final 50 steps."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/5ec4e47200eb5e16cec281f133e5e7fbfd73b3157fcf5f2c60d013ffa9300b76",
      "quote": "Keeps the base (tick probes, sub-tick belief, quotes one tick inside the competitor, marginal sizing, resting orders, YES held to cover asks below 5c) and changes how that YES is bought. Splitting the base's arbitrage loss by cause on seeds 0-599 gave planned YES buying 11.03 a run, drift 8.38, jumps 7.94, late moves 0.88, probes 0.48. Almost all planned cost was at p below 1c, paying 0.6 to 1 tick a share at tick 1, because no lower tick exists."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/1905c7e39765aa4e1d0dbb2f5cb731a6cf724fc614f63987386857acc332dcb3",
      "quote": "Retains the base's sub-tick belief filter, one-tick-inside main quotes, marginal quote sizing, resting-order management and cheap YES inventory. Selected change: permit small ammunition only at tick 1 when estimated p<1c; activate the large tick-1 bid only for 1c<p<2c; suppress tick-1 asks unless at least 500 YES are held or H<=100."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/7236701c55bd1d2e0674854545ae0bbe4d4b54508c7f7a7c914261696b02e158",
      "quote": "Starter strategy on seeds 0-199: -6.482664; all tuning below used seeds 50000+ unless stated, with a few calibration looks at seeds 0-199; the holdout was scored once, on the final file; each sweep was 120-300 sims, standard error about 7-13"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/danrobinson/prediction-market-challenge/b244530ee2a6247b5f930830eeca9dd950da0e7e/docs/orderbook_prediction_market_challenge.md",
      "quote": "The score is participant edge, not terminal PnL."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/danrobinson/prediction-market-challenge/b244530ee2a6247b5f930830eeca9dd950da0e7e/orderbook_pm_challenge/engine.py",
      "quote": "actions = strategy.on_step(state)\n                market.apply_actions(actions, step=step)\n\n                process.step()\n                probability = process.current_true_probability()"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/danrobinson/prediction-market-challenge/b244530ee2a6247b5f930830eeca9dd950da0e7e/orderbook_pm_challenge/config.py",
      "quote": "n_steps: int = 2_000"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/danrobinson/prediction-market-challenge/b244530ee2a6247b5f930830eeca9dd950da0e7e/orderbook_pm_challenge/runner.py",
      "quote": "count = n_simulations or base.default_simulations"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/danrobinson/prediction-market-challenge/b244530ee2a6247b5f930830eeca9dd950da0e7e/orderbook_pm_challenge/results.py",
      "quote": "return sum(successes) / len(successes) if successes else 0.0"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/danrobinson/prediction-market-challenge/b244530ee2a6247b5f930830eeca9dd950da0e7e/orderbook_pm_challenge/types.py",
      "quote": "steps_remaining: int\n    yes_inventory: float"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/danrobinson/prediction-market-challenge/b244530ee2a6247b5f930830eeca9dd950da0e7e/orderbook_pm_challenge/market.py",
      "quote": "reserved_yes = min(quantity, available_yes)\n            uncovered = quantity - reserved_yes\n            reserved_cash = round((1.0 - price) * uncovered, 10)"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/danrobinson/prediction-market-challenge/b244530ee2a6247b5f930830eeca9dd950da0e7e/orderbook_pm_challenge/process.py",
      "quote": "Exact conditional probability that the terminal score finishes above zero."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/danrobinson/prediction-market-challenge/b244530ee2a6247b5f930830eeca9dd950da0e7e/orderbook_pm_challenge/loader.py",
      "quote": "strategy_cls = getattr(module, \"Strategy\", None)"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/danrobinson/prediction-market-challenge/b244530ee2a6247b5f930830eeca9dd950da0e7e/orderbook_pm_challenge/cli.py",
      "quote": "run_parser.add_argument(\"--seed-start\", type=int, default=0, help=\"Starting simulation seed\")"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/danrobinson/prediction-market-challenge/b244530ee2a6247b5f930830eeca9dd950da0e7e/pyproject.toml",
      "quote": "dependencies = []"
    }
  ]
}