{ "config": { "item": "onlyn-a", "composition": "B + N only; L not applied; no tuning", "simulator_commit": "6b6921f8d463314aa7c96234e1be25a25245f704", "mix_m": 625000000000000000, "mix_e_sixteenths": 2, "slow_phat_alpha_retail": 60000000000000000, "fast_phat_alpha_retail": 60000000000000000, "mix_price_estimate": "slow pHat", "seed_start": 3010000, "seed_end_inclusive": 3011999, "n_seeds": 2000, "batch_size": 20, "workers": 8, "matchup": "Separate run_batch(X, Vanilla, cfgs, 8) for X in {cand, NP2, B}; never cand versus NP2", "draws": "default_rng(seed): uniform(19,21) size, uniform(0.6,1) rate, uniform(0.000882,0.001008) sigma, in that order", "price_seed": "seed", "retail_seed": "seed+1", "steps": 10000, "initial_price": 100, "initial_reserves": [ 100, 10000 ], "gbm_mu": 0, "gbm_dt": 1, "retail_size_sigma": 1.2, "retail_buy_prob": 0.5, "compiler": { "solc": "0.8.24", "optimizer_runs": 200, "viaIR": true, "evmVersion": "paris" }, "np2_sha256": "51f1c1a9d4999ee460eb8bbc66880da8074b173399a4f5d71f96671482e18ac0", "se_definition": "sample sd (ddof=1) of per-seed candidate-minus-reference differences / sqrt(n)", "throughput_definition": "sum of wall seconds spent in all confirmation run_batch calls / (3*n_seeds)", "first_batch_seconds_per_sim": 0.3042596070988414 }, "code": "// SPDX-License-Identifier: MIT\npragma solidity ^0.8.24;\n\nimport {AMMStrategyBase} from \"./AMMStrategyBase.sol\";\nimport {TradeInfo} from \"./IAMMStrategy.sol\";\n\ncontract Strategy is AMMStrategyBase {\n uint256 constant MIX_M = 625000000000000000;\n uint256 constant MIX_E_SIXTEENTHS = 2;\n uint256 constant ELAPSED_CAP = 8;\n uint256 constant SIGNAL_THRESHOLD = WAD / 650;\n uint256 constant DIR_DECAY = 750000000000000000;\n uint256 constant ACT_DECAY = 530000000000000000;\n uint256 constant SIZE_DECAY = 530000000000000000;\n uint256 constant TOX_DECAY = 910000000000000000;\n uint256 constant SIGMA_DECAY = 690000000000000000;\n uint256 constant LAMBDA_DECAY = 990000000000000000;\n uint256 constant SIZE_BLEND_DECAY = 828000000000000000;\n uint256 constant TOX_BLEND_DECAY = 51000000000000000;\n uint256 constant ACT_BLEND_DECAY = 985000000000000000;\n uint256 constant PHAT_ALPHA = 270000000000000000;\n uint256 constant PHAT_ALPHA_RETAIL = 60000000000000000;\n uint256 constant PHAT_ALPHA_SAME = 120000000000000000;\n uint256 constant REVERT_U = 0;\n uint256 constant DIR_IMPACT_MULT = 4;\n uint256 constant GATE_SIGMA_MULT = 7200000000000000000;\n uint256 constant MIN_GATE = 30000000000000000;\n uint256 constant TRADE_TOX_BOOST = 3500 * BPS;\n uint256 constant STALE_ATTRACT_FRAC = 1050000000000000000;\n uint256 constant RET_CAP = WAD / 35;\n uint256 constant TOX_CAP = WAD / 5;\n uint256 constant TRADE_RATIO_CAP = WAD / 5;\n uint256 constant LAMBDA_CAP = 1820000000000000000;\n uint256 constant STEP_COUNT_CAP = 64;\n uint256 constant BASE_FEE = 4 * BPS;\n uint256 constant SIGMA_COEF = 200000000000000000;\n uint256 constant LAMBDA_COEF = 12 * BPS;\n uint256 constant FLOW_SIZE_COEF = 4842 * BPS;\n uint256 constant TOX_COEF = 300 * BPS;\n uint256 constant TOX_QUAD_COEF = 15000 * BPS;\n uint256 constant ACT_COEF = 91843 * BPS;\n uint256 constant DIR_COEF = 20 * BPS;\n uint256 constant DIR_TOX_COEF = 100 * BPS;\n uint256 constant STALE_DIR_COEF = 6850 * BPS;\n uint256 constant SIGMA_TOX_COEF = 500 * BPS;\n uint256 constant TAIL_KNEE = 600 * BPS;\n uint256 constant TAIL_SLOPE_PROTECT = 930000000000000000;\n uint256 constant TAIL_SLOPE_ATTRACT = 850000000000000000;\n\n function afterInitialize(uint256 initialX, uint256 initialY) external override returns (uint256, uint256) {\n slots[0] = BASE_FEE; slots[1] = BASE_FEE; slots[2] = 0; slots[3] = WAD; slots[4] = 0;\n slots[5] = initialX > 0 ? wdiv(initialY, initialX) : 100 * WAD;\n slots[6] = 950000000000000; slots[7] = 800000000000000000; slots[8] = 2000000000000000;\n slots[13] = 902500000000; slots[14] = slots[5]; slots[15] = 0; slots[9] = 0; slots[10] = 0; slots[11] = 0; slots[12] = 0;\n return (BASE_FEE, BASE_FEE);\n }\n\n function afterSwap(TradeInfo calldata trade) external override returns (uint256, uint256) {\n uint256 prevBidFee = slots[0]; uint256 prevAskFee = slots[1]; uint256 lastTs = slots[2];\n uint256 dirState = slots[3]; uint256 actEma = slots[4]; uint256 pHat = slots[5];\n uint256 sigmaHat = slots[6]; uint256 lambdaHat = slots[7]; uint256 sizeHat = slots[8];\n uint256 toxEma = slots[9]; uint256 stepTradeCount = slots[10];\n\n uint256 sigmaForFast = sigmaHat;\n uint256 fastHat = slots[14];\n uint256 uncertainty = slots[13];\n uint256 silent = trade.timestamp > lastTs ? trade.timestamp - lastTs : 0;\n bool isNewStep = trade.timestamp > lastTs;\n if (isNewStep) {\n uint256 elapsedRaw = trade.timestamp - lastTs;\n uint256 elapsed = elapsedRaw > ELAPSED_CAP ? ELAPSED_CAP : elapsedRaw;\n dirState = _decayCentered(dirState, DIR_DECAY, elapsed);\n actEma = wmul(actEma, _powWad(ACT_DECAY, elapsed));\n sizeHat = wmul(sizeHat, _powWad(SIZE_DECAY, elapsed));\n toxEma = wmul(toxEma, _powWad(TOX_DECAY, elapsed));\n if (stepTradeCount > 0 && elapsedRaw > 0) {\n uint256 lambdaInst = (stepTradeCount * WAD) / elapsedRaw;\n if (lambdaInst > LAMBDA_CAP) lambdaInst = LAMBDA_CAP;\n lambdaHat = wmul(lambdaHat, LAMBDA_DECAY) + wmul(lambdaInst, WAD - LAMBDA_DECAY);\n }\n uncertainty += wmul(sigmaForFast, sigmaForFast) * elapsedRaw;\n if (uncertainty > 100000000000000) uncertainty = 100000000000000;\n stepTradeCount = 0;\n }\n\n bool firstInStep = stepTradeCount == 0;\n uint256 spot = trade.reserveX > 0 ? wdiv(trade.reserveY, trade.reserveX) : pHat;\n if (pHat == 0) pHat = spot;\n\n uint256 feeUsed = trade.isBuy ? prevBidFee : prevAskFee;\n uint256 gamma = feeUsed < WAD ? WAD - feeUsed : 0;\n uint256 pImplied;\n if (gamma == 0) { pImplied = spot; }\n else { pImplied = trade.isBuy ? wmul(spot, gamma) : wdiv(spot, gamma); }\n\n {\n uint256 ret = pHat > 0 ? wdiv(absDiff(pImplied, pHat), pHat) : 0;\n uint256 alpha = firstInStep ? PHAT_ALPHA : PHAT_ALPHA_RETAIL;\n uint256 prePhat = pHat;\n bool secondPrint = !firstInStep && stepTradeCount == 1;\n bool sameDir = false; bool oppDir = false;\n if (secondPrint) {\n bool up2 = pImplied >= pHat;\n uint256 d1 = slots[12];\n if (d1 != 0) { sameDir = (d1 == 1) == up2; oppDir = !sameDir; }\n if (sameDir) alpha = PHAT_ALPHA_SAME;\n }\n if (firstInStep) { slots[11] = pHat; slots[12] = pImplied >= pHat ? 1 : 2; }\n uint256 adaptiveGate = wmul(sigmaHat, GATE_SIGMA_MULT);\n if (adaptiveGate < MIN_GATE) adaptiveGate = MIN_GATE;\n if (ret <= adaptiveGate) { pHat = wmul(pHat, WAD - alpha) + wmul(pImplied, alpha); }\n if (oppDir && REVERT_U > 0) {\n uint256 pre = slots[11];\n if (pre > pHat) pHat = pHat + wmul(pre - pHat, REVERT_U);\n else pHat = pHat - wmul(pHat - pre, REVERT_U);\n }\n if (firstInStep) {\n if (ret > RET_CAP) ret = RET_CAP;\n sigmaHat = wmul(sigmaHat, SIGMA_DECAY) + wmul(ret, WAD - SIGMA_DECAY);\n }\n }\n\n // Interior retail routing equalizes fee-adjusted marginal prices.\n // Subsequent trades in a step cannot be the initial arbitrage trade.\n if (!firstInStep && feeUsed > 30 * BPS && gamma > 0) {\n uint256 normalSpot = trade.isBuy\n ? wdiv(wmul(spot, gamma), WAD - 30 * BPS)\n : wdiv(wmul(spot, WAD - 30 * BPS), gamma);\n pHat = wmul(pHat, 90 * WAD / 100) + wmul(normalSpot, 10 * WAD / 100);\n }\n\n {\n uint256 ret = fastHat > 0 ? wdiv(absDiff(pImplied, fastHat), fastHat) : 0;\n uint256 alpha;\n if (firstInStep) {\n uint256 processSigma = sigmaForFast;\n uint256 obsVar = uncertainty + wmul(processSigma, processSigma);\n uint256 probArb;\n uint256 z2 = wdiv(wmul(ret, ret), obsVar);\n uint256 density = _powWad(wdiv(WAD, WAD + z2 / 16), 8);\n uint256 sigmaObs = sqrt(obsVar * WAD);\n uint256 odds = wmul(density, wdiv(6700000000000000, sigmaObs));\n bool arbFlag = ret <= wmul(sigmaForFast, 1220000000000000000);\n uint256 prior = arbFlag ? 650000000000000000 : 400000000000000000;\n uint256 tr = trade.reserveY > 0 ? wdiv(trade.amountY, trade.reserveY) : 0;\n if (tr > 3000000000000000) prior = wmul(prior, 6 * WAD / 10);\n if (silent > 1) prior = wmul(prior, 8 * WAD / 10);\n odds = wmul(odds, wdiv(prior, WAD - prior));\n probArb = wdiv(odds, WAD + odds);\n alpha = wmul(probArb, 600000000000000000) + wmul(WAD - probArb, 80000000000000000);\n slots[15] = pImplied >= fastHat ? 1 : 2;\n uncertainty = wmul(uncertainty, WAD - alpha);\n } else {\n if ((slots[15] == 1) == (pImplied >= fastHat)) alpha = PHAT_ALPHA_RETAIL;\n }\n uint256 gate = wmul(sigmaHat, GATE_SIGMA_MULT);\n if (gate < MIN_GATE) gate = MIN_GATE;\n if (ret <= gate) fastHat = wmul(fastHat, WAD - alpha) + wmul(pImplied, alpha);\n slots[13] = uncertainty;\n }\n\n if (!firstInStep && feeUsed > 30 * BPS && gamma > 0) {\n uint256 normalObs = trade.isBuy\n ? wdiv(wmul(spot, gamma), WAD - 30 * BPS)\n : wdiv(wmul(spot, WAD - 30 * BPS), gamma);\n if ((slots[15] == 1) == (normalObs >= fastHat)) {\n fastHat = wmul(fastHat, 9 * WAD / 10) + wmul(normalObs, WAD / 10);\n }\n }\n slots[14] = fastHat;\n uint256 tradeRatio = trade.reserveY > 0 ? wdiv(trade.amountY, trade.reserveY) : 0;\n if (tradeRatio > TRADE_RATIO_CAP) tradeRatio = TRADE_RATIO_CAP;\n\n if (tradeRatio > SIGNAL_THRESHOLD) {\n uint256 push = tradeRatio * DIR_IMPACT_MULT;\n if (push > WAD / 4) push = WAD / 4;\n if (trade.isBuy) {\n dirState = dirState + push;\n if (dirState > 2 * WAD) dirState = 2 * WAD;\n } else {\n dirState = dirState > push ? dirState - push : 0;\n }\n actEma = wmul(actEma, ACT_BLEND_DECAY) + wmul(tradeRatio, WAD - ACT_BLEND_DECAY);\n sizeHat = wmul(sizeHat, SIZE_BLEND_DECAY) + wmul(tradeRatio, WAD - SIZE_BLEND_DECAY);\n if (sizeHat > WAD) sizeHat = WAD;\n }\n\n uint256 tox = pHat > 0 ? wdiv(absDiff(spot, pHat), pHat) : 0;\n if (tox > TOX_CAP) tox = TOX_CAP;\n toxEma = wmul(toxEma, TOX_BLEND_DECAY) + wmul(tox, WAD - TOX_BLEND_DECAY);\n uint256 toxSignal = toxEma;\n\n stepTradeCount = stepTradeCount + 1;\n if (stepTradeCount > STEP_COUNT_CAP) stepTradeCount = STEP_COUNT_CAP;\n\n uint256 flowSize = wmul(lambdaHat, sizeHat);\n uint256 fBase = BASE_FEE + wmul(SIGMA_COEF, sigmaHat) + wmul(LAMBDA_COEF, lambdaHat) + wmul(FLOW_SIZE_COEF, flowSize);\n uint256 fMid = fBase + wmul(TOX_COEF, toxSignal) + wmul(TOX_QUAD_COEF, wmul(toxSignal, toxSignal)) + wmul(ACT_COEF, actEma);\n fMid = fMid + wmul(SIGMA_TOX_COEF, wmul(sigmaHat, toxSignal));\n\n uint256 dirDev; bool sellPressure;\n if (dirState >= WAD) { dirDev = dirState - WAD; sellPressure = true; }\n else { dirDev = WAD - dirState; sellPressure = false; }\n\n uint256 skew = wmul(DIR_COEF, dirDev) + wmul(DIR_TOX_COEF, wmul(dirDev, toxSignal));\n uint256 bidFee; uint256 askFee;\n if (sellPressure) {\n bidFee = fMid + skew;\n askFee = fMid > skew ? fMid - skew : 0;\n } else {\n askFee = fMid + skew;\n bidFee = fMid > skew ? fMid - skew : 0;\n }\n\n {\n uint256 staleHat = wmul(pHat, 700000000000000000) + wmul(fastHat, 300000000000000000);\n uint256 staleTox = wdiv(absDiff(spot, staleHat), staleHat);\n if (staleTox > TOX_CAP) staleTox = TOX_CAP;\n uint256 staleShift = wmul(STALE_DIR_COEF, staleTox);\n uint256 attractShift = wmul(staleShift, STALE_ATTRACT_FRAC);\n if (spot >= staleHat) {\n bidFee = bidFee + staleShift;\n askFee = askFee > attractShift ? askFee - attractShift : 0;\n } else {\n askFee = askFee + staleShift;\n bidFee = bidFee > attractShift ? bidFee - attractShift : 0;\n }\n }\n\n {\n bool tradeAligned = (trade.isBuy && spot >= pHat) || (!trade.isBuy && spot < pHat);\n if (tradeAligned) {\n uint256 tradeBoost = wmul(TRADE_TOX_BOOST, tradeRatio);\n if (trade.isBuy) { bidFee = bidFee + tradeBoost; }\n else { askFee = askFee + tradeBoost; }\n }\n }\n\n if (sellPressure) {\n bidFee = clampFee(_compressTailWithSlope(bidFee, TAIL_SLOPE_PROTECT));\n askFee = clampFee(_compressTailWithSlope(askFee, TAIL_SLOPE_ATTRACT));\n } else {\n askFee = clampFee(_compressTailWithSlope(askFee, TAIL_SLOPE_PROTECT));\n bidFee = clampFee(_compressTailWithSlope(bidFee, TAIL_SLOPE_ATTRACT));\n }\n\n // Mix the next retail quote with a defence against next-step arbitrage.\n // The first observed print is our existing proxy for the step's arb;\n // after it, k counts the subsequent observed retail prints.\n {\n uint256 q = _nextRetailProbability(lambdaHat, stepTradeCount - 1);\n uint256 weight = _mixWeight(q);\n uint256 defence = clampFee(_absLogRatio(spot, pHat) + wmul(MIX_M, sigmaHat));\n if (spot >= pHat) {\n bidFee = wmul(weight, bidFee) + wmul(WAD - weight, defence);\n } else {\n askFee = wmul(weight, askFee) + wmul(WAD - weight, defence);\n }\n }\n\n slots[0] = bidFee; slots[1] = askFee; slots[2] = trade.timestamp;\n slots[3] = dirState; slots[4] = actEma; slots[5] = pHat;\n slots[6] = sigmaHat; slots[7] = lambdaHat; slots[8] = sizeHat;\n slots[9] = toxEma; slots[10] = stepTradeCount;\n\n return (bidFee, askFee);\n }\n\n // Poisson survival ratio P(N > k) / P(N >= k). Dividing both\n // tails by P(N=k) avoids cancellation for large k. For k=0 this\n // is exactly 1-exp(-lambda), up to fixed-point/series rounding.\n function _nextRetailProbability(uint256 lambda, uint256 k) internal pure returns (uint256) {\n uint256 term = WAD;\n uint256 tail;\n for (uint256 j = 1; j <= 24; ++j) {\n term = wmul(term, lambda) / (k + j);\n tail += term;\n if (term == 0) break;\n }\n return wdiv(tail, WAD + tail);\n }\n\n // e is an exact multiple of 1/16. Successive square roots implement\n // the fractional bits without an external fixed-point math library.\n function _mixWeight(uint256 q) internal pure returns (uint256 weight) {\n weight = _powWad(q, MIX_E_SIXTEENTHS / 16);\n uint256 fraction = MIX_E_SIXTEENTHS % 16;\n uint256 root = q;\n for (uint256 bit = 8; bit > 0 && fraction > 0; bit >>= 1) {\n root = sqrt(root * WAD);\n if ((fraction & bit) != 0) {\n weight = wmul(weight, root);\n fraction -= bit;\n }\n }\n }\n\n // 2*atanh((a-b)/(a+b)) = abs(ln(a/b)). Once z >= .05,\n // the logarithm exceeds the 10% fee cap. In the remaining domain\n // five positive terms give <1e-15 absolute truncation error.\n function _absLogRatio(uint256 a, uint256 b) internal pure returns (uint256) {\n if (a == b) return 0;\n if (a == 0 || b == 0) return MAX_FEE;\n uint256 z = wdiv(absDiff(a, b), a + b);\n if (z >= WAD / 20) return MAX_FEE;\n uint256 z2 = wmul(z, z);\n uint256 power = z;\n uint256 series = z;\n for (uint256 j = 3; j <= 9; j += 2) {\n power = wmul(power, z2);\n series += power / j;\n }\n return 2 * series;\n }\n\n function _compressTailWithSlope(uint256 fee, uint256 slope) internal pure returns (uint256) {\n if (fee <= TAIL_KNEE) return fee;\n return TAIL_KNEE + wmul(fee - TAIL_KNEE, slope);\n }\n\n function _powWad(uint256 factor, uint256 exp) internal pure returns (uint256 result) {\n result = WAD;\n while (exp > 0) {\n if (exp & 1 == 1) result = wmul(result, factor);\n factor = wmul(factor, factor);\n exp >>= 1;\n }\n }\n\n function _decayCentered(uint256 centered, uint256 decayFactor, uint256 elapsed) internal pure returns (uint256) {\n uint256 mul = _powWad(decayFactor, elapsed);\n if (centered >= WAD) { return WAD + wmul(centered - WAD, mul); }\n uint256 below = wmul(WAD - centered, mul);\n return below < WAD ? WAD - below : 0;\n }\n\n function getName() external pure override returns (string memory) { return \"no_cubic\"; }\n}\n", "sha256": "84a5f62e114a165d19a12e1b3eeb99aa148ee4ce8bf933646ca040a4d17b275a", "b_sha256": "218426004abed3b6cb69f4ef133fea8e4789ddbeae37bd11e94e5ffc5f2a77cb", "paired_np2": { "n": 2000, "mean_diff": -87.76391935830415, "se": 4.103328895955501, "worst": [ { "seed": 3010910, "diff": -677.0658730569879 }, { "seed": 3010930, "diff": -631.0254495549493 }, { "seed": 3010886, "diff": -622.0604134888946 }, { "seed": 3010341, "diff": -613.6211730946562 }, { "seed": 3010529, "diff": -613.157424411596 } ] }, "paired_b": { "n": 2000, "mean_diff": -88.18596351248245, "se": 4.103019630173875 }, "seconds_per_sim": 0.2957097491631284, "blocked": null, "notes": [ "Used the permitted 2000-seed block because first complete 20-seed triplet measured 0.304259607099 seconds/sim (>0.2).", "Frozen B+N was measured once per seed; there was no tuning or candidate selection. L was not applied.", "B source and reconstructed NP2 exactly match their specified full SHA-256 hashes. N constants, post-tail-compression block, and three helpers were copied unchanged from its sole code field.", "Item-specific setup script completed once; StarterStrategy validation and candidate amm-match validate both passed.", "CH calibration, seeds 0..999: 525.5258821780834; reproduced required 525.525882178.", { "mean_edge": { "Strategy": 436.3110580020091, "NP2": 524.0749773603131, "B": 524.4970215144915 }, "confirmation_simulation_seconds": 1774.2584949787706 }, "Measurements are local results, not external-source or leaderboard claims. External code/method provenance is recorded in sources.json.", "Independent checks verified all three seed sequences, 20 results per batch, finite edges, paired means, sample SEs, worst five seeds, and CH calibration from the saved batch records." ] }