{"key": "d-retail-share", "approach": "Ran N (sha256 bf0d179f...ffae verified) on an instrumented copy of the simulator at the pinned commit (default ChallengeConfig/ParameterVariance, 2000 steps, single process, no --workers/--sandbox, no seed outside 501000..501499). The copy logs every retail fill (resting owner, book side, tick, quantity) with the true p at that step, and changes no behaviour. Regions use true p at the fill: <5c, 5-20c, 20-80c, 80-95c, >=95c. retail_buy = retail BUY lifting asks (N or competitor sold); retail_sell = retail SELL hitting bids. Each cell: notional = quantity*price per run, mean over the runs of that spread. N_share = N notional / (N+competitor notional) over summed runs. *_edge_per_run = mean per run of passive-side edge (sell: price-p, buy: p-price). comp_edge = the edge the competitor's fills would have earned at their prices. N_edge_per_notional and comp_edge_per_notional = summed edge / summed notional. N_minus_comp_edge = per-run difference N minus competitor, with its standard error across runs. Retail not filled by anyone (empty book) is not counted.", "tried": ["sha256 of the code field equals bf0d179f3e47d28819f6fa7e0d25548c2ced43374c216d36460b00a26a26ffae", "seed 310000 total edge 17.1160017503 on both instrumented and unmodified simulator", "10 seeds (310000 and 501000..501008): total edge identical to 10 decimals between instrumented and unmodified run_batch; max abs difference 0", "sum of logged N retail-fill edge equals the simulator's retail_edge on those seeds (agreement to 1e-9)", "all 500 seeds 501000..501499 completed; spreads from sample_config: 106/136/133/125 for 1/2/3/4"], "complete": true, "first_seed": 501000, "last_seed": 501499, "n": 500, "incumbent_mean": 104.525, "retail_mean": 128.0089, "arb_mean": -23.4839, "by_spread": {"1": {"runs": 106, "incumbent_mean": 47.7762, "retail_mean": 68.3285, "arb_mean": -20.5523, "table": [{"region": "<5c", "retail_side": "retail_buy", "notional_N_per_run": 98.6051, "notional_comp_per_run": 43.7807, "N_share": 0.6925, "N_edge_per_run": 62.1804, "N_edge_se": 12.7212, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.6306, "comp_edge_per_run": 18.0643, "comp_edge_se": 3.2638, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.4126, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": 44.1161, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 10.7564}, {"region": "<5c", "retail_side": "retail_sell", "notional_N_per_run": 9.1838, "notional_comp_per_run": 18.086, "N_share": 0.3368, "N_edge_per_run": 2.2627, "N_edge_se": 0.4333, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.2464, "comp_edge_per_run": 5.9064, "comp_edge_se": 0.9534, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.3266, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": -3.6438, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 0.6522}, {"region": "5-20c", "retail_side": "retail_buy", "notional_N_per_run": 11.4858, "notional_comp_per_run": 148.0559, "N_share": 0.072, "N_edge_per_run": 1.1175, "N_edge_se": 0.2303, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.0973, "comp_edge_per_run": 15.1258, "comp_edge_se": 2.0092, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.1022, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": -14.0082, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 1.832}, {"region": "5-20c", "retail_side": "retail_sell", "notional_N_per_run": 14.5851, "notional_comp_per_run": 130.1526, "N_share": 0.1008, "N_edge_per_run": 2.014, "N_edge_se": 0.4484, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.1381, "comp_edge_per_run": 14.9157, "comp_edge_se": 2.2801, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.1146, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": -12.9016, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 1.9509}, {"region": "20-80c", "retail_side": "retail_buy", "notional_N_per_run": 1.149, "notional_comp_per_run": 569.0608, "N_share": 0.002, "N_edge_per_run": 0.0252, "N_edge_se": 0.0049, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.022, "comp_edge_per_run": 16.1554, "comp_edge_se": 1.0653, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.0284, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": -16.1301, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 1.0647}, {"region": "20-80c", "retail_side": "retail_sell", "notional_N_per_run": 1.5338, "notional_comp_per_run": 559.9133, "N_share": 0.0027, "N_edge_per_run": 0.0599, "N_edge_se": 0.0166, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.0391, "comp_edge_per_run": 16.6793, "comp_edge_se": 1.1184, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.0298, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": -16.6194, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 1.1172}, {"region": "80-95c", "retail_side": "retail_buy", "notional_N_per_run": 5.825, "notional_comp_per_run": 107.5655, "N_share": 0.0514, "N_edge_per_run": 0.0468, "N_edge_se": 0.0104, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.008, "comp_edge_per_run": 1.352, "comp_edge_se": 0.2113, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.0126, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": -1.3052, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 0.2063}, {"region": "80-95c", "retail_side": "retail_sell", "notional_N_per_run": 7.0088, "notional_comp_per_run": 100.9547, "N_share": 0.0649, "N_edge_per_run": 0.0656, "N_edge_se": 0.0134, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.0094, "comp_edge_per_run": 1.5624, "comp_edge_se": 0.253, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.0155, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": -1.4968, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 0.2458}, {"region": ">95c", "retail_side": "retail_buy", "notional_N_per_run": 14.357, "notional_comp_per_run": 38.4077, "N_share": 0.2721, "N_edge_per_run": 0.0836, "N_edge_se": 0.0208, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.0058, "comp_edge_per_run": 0.333, "comp_edge_se": 0.067, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.0087, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": -0.2494, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 0.0508}, {"region": ">95c", "retail_side": "retail_sell", "notional_N_per_run": 58.7138, "notional_comp_per_run": 61.6227, "N_share": 0.4879, "N_edge_per_run": 0.4727, "N_edge_se": 0.0931, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.0081, "comp_edge_per_run": 0.9601, "comp_edge_se": 0.166, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.0156, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": -0.4874, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 0.1309}]}, "2": {"runs": 136, "incumbent_mean": 84.9696, "retail_mean": 108.1641, "arb_mean": -23.1945, "table": [{"region": "<5c", "retail_side": "retail_buy", "notional_N_per_run": 117.1693, "notional_comp_per_run": 15.3097, "N_share": 0.8844, "N_edge_per_run": 81.7358, "N_edge_se": 13.6691, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.6976, "comp_edge_per_run": 10.9121, "comp_edge_se": 3.2763, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.7128, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": 70.8237, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 11.7516}, {"region": "<5c", "retail_side": "retail_sell", "notional_N_per_run": 8.5261, "notional_comp_per_run": 12.5513, "N_share": 0.4045, "N_edge_per_run": 1.9805, "N_edge_se": 0.4443, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.2323, "comp_edge_per_run": 3.917, "comp_edge_se": 0.6376, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.3121, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": -1.9365, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 0.4544}, {"region": "5-20c", "retail_side": "retail_buy", "notional_N_per_run": 44.3759, "notional_comp_per_run": 60.3184, "N_share": 0.4239, "N_edge_per_run": 6.001, "N_edge_se": 0.937, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.1352, "comp_edge_per_run": 7.1694, "comp_edge_se": 1.0556, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.1189, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": -1.1684, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 0.654}, {"region": "5-20c", "retail_side": "retail_sell", "notional_N_per_run": 28.2505, "notional_comp_per_run": 63.3648, "N_share": 0.3084, "N_edge_per_run": 4.0636, "N_edge_se": 0.7023, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.1438, "comp_edge_per_run": 7.1312, "comp_edge_se": 1.0458, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.1125, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": -3.0675, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 0.5166}, {"region": "20-80c", "retail_side": "retail_buy", "notional_N_per_run": 137.7248, "notional_comp_per_run": 514.5502, "N_share": 0.2111, "N_edge_per_run": 5.2947, "N_edge_se": 0.258, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.0384, "comp_edge_per_run": 16.8607, "comp_edge_se": 1.4152, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.0328, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": -11.566, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 1.2235}, {"region": "20-80c", "retail_side": "retail_sell", "notional_N_per_run": 141.7657, "notional_comp_per_run": 479.2851, "N_share": 0.2283, "N_edge_per_run": 5.6883, "N_edge_se": 0.2968, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.0401, "comp_edge_per_run": 16.8803, "comp_edge_se": 1.1534, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.0352, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": -11.192, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 0.9717}, {"region": "80-95c", "retail_side": "retail_buy", "notional_N_per_run": 38.4439, "notional_comp_per_run": 97.7228, "N_share": 0.2823, "N_edge_per_run": 0.6301, "N_edge_se": 0.0747, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.0164, "comp_edge_per_run": 1.3996, "comp_edge_se": 0.1821, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.0143, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": -0.7696, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 0.1291}, {"region": "80-95c", "retail_side": "retail_sell", "notional_N_per_run": 56.7863, "notional_comp_per_run": 75.6386, "N_share": 0.4288, "N_edge_per_run": 1.073, "N_edge_se": 0.1185, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.0189, "comp_edge_per_run": 1.5781, "comp_edge_se": 0.222, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.0209, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": -0.5051, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 0.1745}, {"region": ">95c", "retail_side": "retail_buy", "notional_N_per_run": 16.8223, "notional_comp_per_run": 31.7721, "N_share": 0.3462, "N_edge_per_run": 0.1284, "N_edge_se": 0.0316, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.0076, "comp_edge_per_run": 0.2671, "comp_edge_se": 0.0475, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.0084, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": -0.1386, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 0.0278}, {"region": ">95c", "retail_side": "retail_sell", "notional_N_per_run": 91.4098, "notional_comp_per_run": 33.2713, "N_share": 0.7331, "N_edge_per_run": 1.5687, "N_edge_se": 0.2245, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.0172, "comp_edge_per_run": 0.9169, "comp_edge_se": 0.1839, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.0276, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": 0.6518, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 0.2039}]}, "3": {"runs": 133, "incumbent_mean": 130.3283, "retail_mean": 154.6408, "arb_mean": -24.3125, "table": [{"region": "<5c", "retail_side": "retail_buy", "notional_N_per_run": 137.3047, "notional_comp_per_run": 6.4321, "N_share": 0.9553, "N_edge_per_run": 99.8357, "N_edge_se": 13.9467, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.7271, "comp_edge_per_run": 3.6238, "comp_edge_se": 1.044, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.5634, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": 96.212, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 13.8784}, {"region": "<5c", "retail_side": "retail_sell", "notional_N_per_run": 13.5033, "notional_comp_per_run": 13.5513, "N_share": 0.4991, "N_edge_per_run": 4.2148, "N_edge_se": 1.0188, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.3121, "comp_edge_per_run": 4.8226, "comp_edge_se": 0.6779, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.3559, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": -0.6078, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 0.7649}, {"region": "5-20c", "retail_side": "retail_buy", "notional_N_per_run": 70.9287, "notional_comp_per_run": 55.9709, "N_share": 0.5589, "N_edge_per_run": 11.489, "N_edge_se": 1.5916, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.162, "comp_edge_per_run": 7.0897, "comp_edge_se": 1.1199, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.1267, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": 4.3993, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 0.9826}, {"region": "5-20c", "retail_side": "retail_sell", "notional_N_per_run": 41.2545, "notional_comp_per_run": 62.4057, "N_share": 0.398, "N_edge_per_run": 8.3096, "N_edge_se": 1.146, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.2014, "comp_edge_per_run": 7.0978, "comp_edge_se": 0.9076, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.1137, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": 1.2118, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 0.6098}, {"region": "20-80c", "retail_side": "retail_buy", "notional_N_per_run": 233.636, "notional_comp_per_run": 351.4112, "N_share": 0.3993, "N_edge_per_run": 12.1468, "N_edge_se": 0.6753, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.052, "comp_edge_per_run": 12.7363, "comp_edge_se": 0.9431, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.0362, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": -0.5894, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 0.5302}, {"region": "20-80c", "retail_side": "retail_sell", "notional_N_per_run": 230.2592, "notional_comp_per_run": 341.5174, "N_share": 0.4027, "N_edge_per_run": 12.9692, "N_edge_se": 0.7416, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.0563, "comp_edge_per_run": 13.5918, "comp_edge_se": 1.0248, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.0398, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": -0.6226, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 0.5457}, {"region": "80-95c", "retail_side": "retail_buy", "notional_N_per_run": 44.3891, "notional_comp_per_run": 57.964, "N_share": 0.4337, "N_edge_per_run": 0.9045, "N_edge_se": 0.1607, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.0204, "comp_edge_per_run": 0.7975, "comp_edge_se": 0.1228, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.0138, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": 0.107, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 0.0954}, {"region": "80-95c", "retail_side": "retail_sell", "notional_N_per_run": 60.5348, "notional_comp_per_run": 35.7675, "N_share": 0.6286, "N_edge_per_run": 1.5287, "N_edge_se": 0.2228, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.0253, "comp_edge_per_run": 0.7608, "comp_edge_se": 0.1257, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.0213, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": 0.7679, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 0.1329}, {"region": ">95c", "retail_side": "retail_buy", "notional_N_per_run": 16.4418, "notional_comp_per_run": 24.539, "N_share": 0.4012, "N_edge_per_run": 0.1359, "N_edge_se": 0.0409, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.0083, "comp_edge_per_run": 0.2044, "comp_edge_se": 0.0405, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.0083, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": -0.0685, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 0.0211}, {"region": ">95c", "retail_side": "retail_sell", "notional_N_per_run": 111.9038, "notional_comp_per_run": 13.9367, "N_share": 0.8893, "N_edge_per_run": 3.1067, "N_edge_se": 0.5054, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.0278, "comp_edge_per_run": 0.8781, "comp_edge_se": 0.3986, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.063, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": 2.2286, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 0.5822}]}, "4": {"runs": 125, "incumbent_mean": 146.4696, "retail_mean": 171.8727, "arb_mean": -25.4031, "table": [{"region": "<5c", "retail_side": "retail_buy", "notional_N_per_run": 116.1843, "notional_comp_per_run": 4.7686, "N_share": 0.9606, "N_edge_per_run": 87.2955, "N_edge_se": 16.7578, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.7514, "comp_edge_per_run": 3.1262, "comp_edge_se": 0.858, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.6556, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": 84.1692, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 16.2155}, {"region": "<5c", "retail_side": "retail_sell", "notional_N_per_run": 10.1869, "notional_comp_per_run": 12.6518, "N_share": 0.446, "N_edge_per_run": 4.8658, "N_edge_se": 1.6624, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.4777, "comp_edge_per_run": 4.538, "comp_edge_se": 0.9434, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.3587, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": 0.3278, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 1.2442}, {"region": "5-20c", "retail_side": "retail_buy", "notional_N_per_run": 88.6766, "notional_comp_per_run": 53.6137, "N_share": 0.6232, "N_edge_per_run": 19.2073, "N_edge_se": 2.797, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.2166, "comp_edge_per_run": 9.6392, "comp_edge_se": 2.2812, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.1798, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": 9.568, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 2.8236}, {"region": "5-20c", "retail_side": "retail_sell", "notional_N_per_run": 48.1814, "notional_comp_per_run": 62.5033, "N_share": 0.4353, "N_edge_per_run": 11.9374, "N_edge_se": 1.8311, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.2478, "comp_edge_per_run": 8.3838, "comp_edge_se": 1.2637, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.1341, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": 3.5536, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 1.116}, {"region": "20-80c", "retail_side": "retail_buy", "notional_N_per_run": 303.0608, "notional_comp_per_run": 319.1078, "N_share": 0.4871, "N_edge_per_run": 19.2265, "N_edge_se": 1.0096, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.0634, "comp_edge_per_run": 12.7727, "comp_edge_se": 0.9498, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.04, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": 6.4538, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 0.6816}, {"region": "20-80c", "retail_side": "retail_sell", "notional_N_per_run": 312.9205, "notional_comp_per_run": 291.21, "N_share": 0.518, "N_edge_per_run": 21.2995, "N_edge_se": 1.1351, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.0681, "comp_edge_per_run": 12.1865, "comp_edge_se": 0.8841, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.0418, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": 9.113, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 0.6994}, {"region": "80-95c", "retail_side": "retail_buy", "notional_N_per_run": 53.2001, "notional_comp_per_run": 68.1267, "N_share": 0.4385, "N_edge_per_run": 1.351, "N_edge_se": 0.2002, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.0254, "comp_edge_per_run": 1.0379, "comp_edge_se": 0.146, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.0152, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": 0.3132, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 0.1103}, {"region": "80-95c", "retail_side": "retail_sell", "notional_N_per_run": 74.6854, "notional_comp_per_run": 33.3938, "N_share": 0.691, "N_edge_per_run": 2.5649, "N_edge_se": 0.3415, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.0343, "comp_edge_per_run": 0.8469, "comp_edge_se": 0.1698, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.0254, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": 1.718, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 0.2693}, {"region": ">95c", "retail_side": "retail_buy", "notional_N_per_run": 23.1209, "notional_comp_per_run": 27.6005, "N_share": 0.4558, "N_edge_per_run": 0.2001, "N_edge_se": 0.0463, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.0087, "comp_edge_per_run": 0.2414, "comp_edge_se": 0.0423, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.0087, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": -0.0413, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 0.038}, {"region": ">95c", "retail_side": "retail_sell", "notional_N_per_run": 106.5831, "notional_comp_per_run": 13.3872, "N_share": 0.8884, "N_edge_per_run": 3.9248, "N_edge_se": 0.6505, "N_edge_per_notional": 0.0368, "comp_edge_per_run": 0.5772, "comp_edge_se": 0.1158, "comp_edge_per_notional": 0.0431, "N_minus_comp_edge_per_run": 3.3476, "N_minus_comp_edge_se": 0.5917}]}}, "finding": "Spread 2: the largest missed edge is the 20-80c region, where N takes only 21% of buy-side and 23% of sell-side retail notional (about 280 vs 994 per run for the competitor); the competitor's fills there earn 33.7 per run at their prices against N's 11.0 (difference -22.8, SE about 1.6), so N should quote at or inside the competitor's price level for p in 20-80c at spread 2. Spread 3: the same region is again the largest missed edge, N takes about 40% of notional, 25.1 per run against the competitor's 26.3 (difference -1.2, SE about 0.8), with 693 per run of notional (competitor-filled) still unclaimed, so the change is to raise N's queue priority or size at the competitor's price level in 20-80c. N already beats the competitor's would-be edge for p under 5c and over 95c on the retail-sell side at spread 3. Counterfactual competitor edge is at the competitor's prices, not at prices N would get, so it is an upper bound on the gain. Spread 1 shows the same pattern with a much larger gap (N share about 0.3% in 20-80c).", "next": "Replicate on a second disjoint seed block and test one change at spread 2: quote at the competitor's price level for p in 20-80c, measuring the paired gain and the added arbitrage loss.", "seconds_per_simulation": 5.78}