Retain B; no promotion or final ranking is supported by these ten screens. The incumbent code SHA256 remains bf0d179f3e47d28819f6fa7e0d25548c2ced43374c216d36460b00a26a26ffae, as required by the assignment and declared by every cited item below. All ten inputs report complete tuning (200 pairs, seeds 310000–310199) and screening (500 pairs, seeds 410000–410499). These sets do not overlap. None of the selected overall screening gains exceeds twice its reported standard error. Final ranking requires thousands of paired seeds; reserved seeds 900000–903999 remain for authorized measure items. This merge runs no simulations and supplies no finalist evidence.

The table below summarizes the selected policy within its target spread. All numbers are copied without rounding. The overall columns include all four spreads; the JSON retains complete overall and spread statistics for each selected policy and all supplied rejected-policy tuning evidence. The rows are grouped by spread, not ranked.

| Spread | Item / exact input artifact | Target n | Target mean difference | Target SE | Overall mean difference | Overall SE |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | [s1-flow-priority](https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/4e867d353c9edf1c1314248819458e7a5a6e21a43bbe84037096cd8245374aa3) | 115 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | [s1-queue-safety](https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/e4f60b549bcecf2d4d54e39084dcd646c7fcfb67c44dd516545caf3aa384dd1c) | 115 | 0.17366734467913028 | 0.10012420402548237 | 0.039943489276199964 | 0.023183208965037803 |
| 2 | [s2-coverage-threshold](https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/9cf488a49fdc736c051c869cc921c9992a5bdef78e80d561454878753e3ad0fc) | 116 | -0.5954816458155175 | 0.3563558549270702 | -0.13815174182920006 | 0.08316462003212671 |
| 2 | [s2-side-risk](https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/7d4477490a285f9c7f2eb0d2ac89b584550b5e094737e0fad1d7670280e76bf7) | 116 | 0.39002522797586425 | 0.2698120189693723 | 0.09048585289040051 | 0.06282221532308681 |
| 3 | [s3-cover-reserve](https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/203c849d06c8c3bb1d08ce0b5ceaa93877911f06fd20bd7b3e4a91e05914e5c1) | 138 | -0.001772397186231834 | 0.001772397186231834 | -0.0004891816233999861 | 0.0004891816233999861 |
| 3 | [s3-flow-shrinkage](https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/48a4a71155fba8c7ab0e28fa83dc07745b7c8b728b6c5cb0237ab43b744588c8) | 138 | 0.10820994294420352 | 0.08361177159429269 | 0.029865944252600172 | 0.023117752083469483 |
| 4 | [s4-ask-saturation](https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/bf93b4828bbeaf02735231fc12756d682f38cd3e83fc294bb6ef8b825c7979d0) | 131 | -0.10871322643358829 | 0.07213720207741564 | -0.02848286532560013 | 0.018967633994053 |
| 4 | [s4-bid-tranches](https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/5522533842cbd00caf3328475283cfefb5990c1c511647da8f2c08c32b37ca0b) | 131 | 0.006941795121373597 | 0.11579905345469423 | 0.0018187503217998824 | 0.030253908452197657 |
| 4 | [s4-flow-forgetting](https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/a3c66bba6edd7d86a5c797c49983dc35824b21c22b356fad85ce571af11ad3c9) | 131 | 0.1780818411137396 | 0.9239416282536272 | 0.04665744237179977 | 0.24141395657651796 |
| 4 | [s4-uncertainty-tail](https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/10c5f5e7a38d6b1fbfc35993bc762a8dec90b21d813e8f2ab810fc3acecd1af2) | 131 | 0.12641206923129875 | 0.10347323977786185 | 0.03311996213860027 | 0.027147648681570945 |

All ten artifact and selected-code hashes match; code parses and aggregate arithmetic reconciles. These are byte and consistency checks, not simulation replication. The JSON records the three disclosed process-rule violations, unresolved requester source warnings (queue safety: one; coverage threshold: one; flow priority: two), and missing rejected-variant spread statistics. Affected source URLs/passages were not supplied, so source-dependent explanations remain qualified.

The complete field preserves each item's completion claim and does not certify protocol compliance. Each source_pointer resolves within that row's code_url; findings use key:/pointer. Those exact input artifacts retain full code and supplementary diagnostics. No code copies or new combined strategy are included.

```json
{
  "merge": "r3-deepen-current/04",
  "decision": {
    "incumbent": "B",
    "incumbent_code_sha256": "bf0d179f3e47d28819f6fa7e0d25548c2ced43374c216d36460b00a26a26ffae",
    "incumbent_result_url": "https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/db22aff7167a4798251ed3d20432509f30e511e4958799aba5b17b41bb39b4b6",
    "promotions": [],
    "finalist_evidence": null,
    "ranking_status": "Screening only; no final ranking or promotion. Every selected overall screening gain is below twice its reported SE (the zero policy is exactly zero)."
  },
  "protocol_context": {
    "required_simulator_commit": "b244530ee2a6247b5f930830eeca9dd950da0e7e",
    "required_config": "Unmodified default ChallengeConfig and ParameterVariance, 2000 steps, serial ONE OS process, no workers/multiprocessing/sandbox.",
    "tuning_seed_range_inclusive": ["310000","310199"],
    "screening_seed_range_inclusive": ["410000","410499"],
    "expected_tuning_n": "200",
    "expected_screening_n": "500",
    "tuning_counts_by_spread": {
      "1": "47",
      "2": "57",
      "3": "53",
      "4": "43"
    },
    "screening_counts_by_spread": {
      "1": "115",
      "2": "116",
      "3": "138",
      "4": "131"
    },
    "reserved_finalist_seed_range_inclusive": ["900000","903999"],
    "merge_simulations_run": "0",
    "promotion_rule": "Only authorized measure items use finalist seeds; paired gain must exceed twice its SE. Final ranking needs thousands of paired seeds."
  },
  "interpretation": {
    "precision": "Copied numeric tokens are verbatim strings; booleans stay booleans. Null means missing, not zero.",
    "complete": "Source run-completion claim, not protocol certification. All inputs say true; failures are copied unchanged and violations flagged.",
    "provenance": "Input locators/digests are supplied metadata. code_url is the exact result JSON containing code, not a URL derived from code_sha256. Local reads: .imd/reads/artifacts/item-<key>.",
    "statistics": "d=C.total_edge-B.total_edge; SE=sqrt((sum_d2-sum_d^2/n)/(n-1)/n). Retail/arb differences are signed C-B means.",
    "normalization": "c_mean_edge/b_mean_edge become C_mean_edge/B_mean_edge; direct s1..s4 and by_spread.s1..s4 become by_spread.1..4. source_pointer resolves inside code_url.",
    "scope": "Policies and T/H remain separate. The same 500 screening seeds reused across ten policies are not 5000 independent seeds. No combined-policy estimate.",
    "timing": "Reported timing values/summaries retained; omitted pilot records have source pointers. Different machines and scopes prevent runtime ranking.",
    "source_warnings": "Requester flags queue-safety:1, coverage-threshold:1, flow-priority:2. Affected URLs/passages and failure types are unavailable. Numbers remain item-reported; source-dependent explanations lack independent support. Zero warnings means none reported, not validated.",
    "code_verification_limit": "Selected UTF-8 code and artifact bytes checked. Rejected code bytes absent, their hashes only reported. Incumbent bytes not supplied/re-fetched; comparator checks use declarations and baseline aggregates."
  },
  "verification": {
    "input_artifacts_present": "10",
    "input_artifact_hashes_matching": "10",
    "selected_code_hashes_matching": "10",
    "selected_code_syntax_parses": "10",
    "declared_comparator_mismatches": "0",
    "selected_tuning_or_screening_missing_count_fields": "0",
    "aggregate_blocks_checked": "127",
    "algebra_check": "Means/SEs match source sums at absolute/relative 1e-12, C-B means at 1e-9, retail+arb at 1e-8. Counts and supplied spread sums reconcile; residuals preserved.",
    "numerical_evidence_limit": "No simulation replication or full seed ledgers/execution traces. Seed coverage, freeze, defaults, timing and runtime comparator remain source reports.",
    "protocol_violation_keys": ["s4-ask-saturation","s1-queue-safety","s4-uncertainty-tail"],
    "missing_rejected_variant_groups": ["s1-queue-safety:qb_z_10:s2","s1-queue-safety:qb_z_10:s3","s1-queue-safety:qb_z_10:s4"]
  },
  "rows": [
    {
      "key": "s4-ask-saturation",
      "idea": "Spread 4 only: after manage(), newly placed ask quantity add_a is capped so kept + new asks do not exceed a q=0.90 upper quantile of remaining retail buy demand in shares. Demand is compound Poisson with B's learned f4_rate and f4_mean and lognormal sigma 1.2, approximated by a moment-matched lognormal over all H remaining steps, divided by the ask price. qask's 1.4 multiplier, manage() retention and qa's other uses are unchanged.",
      "target_spreads": ["4"],
      "input_result_locator": "artifacts/goal/batches/r3-deepen-current/items/s4-ask-saturation/result.json",
      "artifact_sha256": "bf93b4828bbeaf02735231fc12756d682f38cd3e83fc294bb6ef8b825c7979d0",
      "code_url": "https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/bf93b4828bbeaf02735231fc12756d682f38cd3e83fc294bb6ef8b825c7979d0",
      "code_sha256": "a8531ecdfa3f3a0150111fcbebb303f7489725d0283a0d4f9f07f74ef1c2f06b",
      "incumbent_code_sha256": "bf0d179f3e47d28819f6fa7e0d25548c2ced43374c216d36460b00a26a26ffae",
      "complete": true,
      "failures": [],
      "tuning": {"seed_range_inclusive":["310000","310199"],"selected_variant":"v1_q90_remaining","selection":"Highest spread-4 tuning mean; ties to remaining-horizon v1. Two prespecified variants.","variants":[{"variant":"v1_q90_remaining","code_sha256":"a8531ecdfa3f3a0150111fcbebb303f7489725d0283a0d4f9f07f74ef1c2f06b","selected":true,"source_pointer":"/tuning/v1_q90_remaining","overall":{"n":"200","sum_d":"-17.69209505060006","sum_d2":"248.4563447208814","mean_diff":"-0.0884604752530003","se":"0.0787610235699169","C_mean_edge":"85.074192689789","B_mean_edge":"85.16265316504199","retail_diff":"-0.10957463833149955","arb_diff":"0.021114163079500016","changed_seeds":"4"},"by_spread":{"1":{"n":"47","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"30.59600304578298","B_mean_edge":"30.59600304578298","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0","changed_seeds":"0"},"2":{"n":"57","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"81.35713208259824","B_mean_edge":"81.35713208259824","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0","changed_seeds":"0"},"3":{"n":"53","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"115.06691980369057","B_mean_edge":"115.06691980369057","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0","changed_seeds":"0"},"4":{"n":"43","sum_d":"-17.69209505060006","sum_d2":"248.4563447208814","mean_diff":"-0.41144407094418745","se":"0.3654341288072072","C_mean_edge":"112.57960736051861","B_mean_edge":"112.9910514314628","retail_diff":"-0.5096494806116258","arb_diff":"0.0982054096720931","changed_seeds":"4"}}},{"variant":"v2_q90_window20","code_sha256":"3b73dc6e92c00ccefd2350f0b57b1e140e135634e1605f7a174fac88f9a39485","selected":false,"source_pointer":"/tuning/v2_q90_window20","overall":{"n":"200","sum_d":"-164.07614419180004","sum_d2":"7655.897561985668","mean_diff":"-0.8203807209590002","se":"0.43471508189291236","C_mean_edge":"84.342272444083","B_mean_edge":"85.16265316504199","retail_diff":"-0.9192128285409996","arb_diff":"0.09883210758299989","changed_seeds":"36"},"by_spread":{"1":{"n":"47","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"30.59600304578298","B_mean_edge":"30.59600304578298","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0","changed_seeds":"0"},"2":{"n":"57","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"81.35713208259824","B_mean_edge":"81.35713208259824","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0","changed_seeds":"0"},"3":{"n":"53","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"115.06691980369057","B_mean_edge":"115.06691980369057","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0","changed_seeds":"0"},"4":{"n":"43","sum_d":"-164.07614419180004","sum_d2":"7655.897561985668","mean_diff":"-3.8157242835302334","se":"1.972938209761689","C_mean_edge":"109.17532714793256","B_mean_edge":"112.9910514314628","retail_diff":"-4.275408504841859","arb_diff":"0.4596842213162785","changed_seeds":"36"}}}]},
      "paired": {"source_pointer":"/paired","seed_range_inclusive":["410000","410499"],"overall":{"n":"500","sum_d":"-14.241432662800065","sum_d2":"90.16853607200072","mean_diff":"-0.02848286532560013","se":"0.018967633994053","C_mean_edge":"104.3852703228212","B_mean_edge":"104.4137531881468","retail_diff":"-0.027030467282599887","arb_diff":"-0.0014523980430000024","changed_seeds":"7"},"by_spread":{"1":{"n":"115","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"28.495154459731307","B_mean_edge":"28.495154459731307","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0","changed_seeds":"0"},"2":{"n":"116","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"97.76626247947758","B_mean_edge":"97.76626247947758","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0","changed_seeds":"0"},"3":{"n":"138","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"128.4054514027384","B_mean_edge":"128.4054514027384","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0","changed_seeds":"0"},"4":{"n":"131","sum_d":"-14.241432662800065","sum_d2":"90.16853607200072","mean_diff":"-0.10871322643358829","se":"0.07213720207741564","C_mean_edge":"151.56376837667327","B_mean_edge":"151.67248160310686","retail_diff":"-0.10316972245267132","arb_diff":"-0.005543503980916039","changed_seeds":"7"}}},
      "seconds_per_simulation": {"first_10_pairs_mean":"0.3511044473387301","first_10_pairs_simulations":"30","all_scored_simulations_mean":"0.35370909255900185","all_scored_simulations":"1600","note":"First 10 pairs are T seeds 310000..310009, each run as B, v1, v2; those runs are retained in the tuning results and were not repeated."},
      "flags": {"verification":"Hashes/syntax verified; declared comparator matches; selected counts reconcile; non-target deltas zero.","missing_counts":[],"protocol_violations":[{"source_pointer":"/reproduction","issue":"T and H explicitly ran as two successive OS processes, contrary to the required ONE OS process."}],"source_warning_count":"0","notes":["The selected cap changed 4 tuning seeds and 7 screening seeds (/tuning/v1_q90_remaining/overall/changed_seeds; /paired/overall/changed_seeds).","The tighter 20-step cap lost more retail edge than it saved in arbitrage on tuning; no screening evidence for that rejected policy.","Source reports extra smoke seeds 20..27 outside assigned T/H, unused for selection (/tried/4); disclosed extra tests, not finalist seeds. The supplied merge brief does not specify whether such smoke tests were forbidden.","First-ten timing is 30 simulations (B plus both candidates per seed), not 20 (/seconds_per_simulation)."],"additional_diagnostics_source_pointer":"/tried"}
    },
    {
      "key": "s4-bid-tranches",
      "idea": "Spread 4 only: replace equal eligible main-bid tranches with a 20%-80% front fraction. Front fraction = clamp(keep_hi*qbid(bid_t+max(0.25,sqrt(var_t+st^2)))/qb,0.2,0.8). The stressed bid approximates a one-sigma adverse probability move; retain front FIFO while preserving the option to cancel the rear. Eligibility, total initial quantity and all other branches unchanged.",
      "target_spreads": ["4"],
      "input_result_locator": "artifacts/goal/batches/r3-deepen-current/items/s4-bid-tranches/result.json",
      "artifact_sha256": "5522533842cbd00caf3328475283cfefb5990c1c511647da8f2c08c32b37ca0b",
      "code_url": "https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/5522533842cbd00caf3328475283cfefb5990c1c511647da8f2c08c32b37ca0b",
      "code_sha256": "5697d3c38b891041caedc9fa3d22cef35aa55418559e2d35f6f359bb07948c84",
      "incumbent_code_sha256": "bf0d179f3e47d28819f6fa7e0d25548c2ced43374c216d36460b00a26a26ffae",
      "complete": true,
      "failures": [],
      "tuning": {"seed_range_inclusive":["310000","310199"],"selected_variant":"one-sigma retained-front","selection":"One variant, frozen before screening.","variants":[{"variant":"one-sigma retained-front","code_sha256":"5697d3c38b891041caedc9fa3d22cef35aa55418559e2d35f6f359bb07948c84","selected":true,"source_pointer":"/tuning","overall":{"n":"200","sum_d":"14.457809899800012","sum_d2":"134.61695738871305","mean_diff":"0.07228904949900006","se":"0.05793164748418294","C_mean_edge":"85.23494221454101","B_mean_edge":"85.16265316504199","retail_diff":"0.048431357369000436","arb_diff":"0.023857692127500062"},"by_spread":{"1":{"n":"47","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"30.59600304578298","B_mean_edge":"30.59600304578298","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0"},"2":{"n":"57","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"81.35713208259824","B_mean_edge":"81.35713208259824","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0"},"3":{"n":"53","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"115.06691980369057","B_mean_edge":"115.06691980369057","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0"},"4":{"n":"43","sum_d":"14.457809899800012","sum_d2":"134.61695738871305","mean_diff":"0.33622813720465144","se":"0.26804306493762176","C_mean_edge":"113.32727956866745","B_mean_edge":"112.9910514314628","retail_diff":"0.22526212729767645","arb_diff":"0.11096600989534913"}}}]},
      "paired": {"source_pointer":"/paired","seed_range_inclusive":["410000","410499"],"overall":{"n":"500","sum_d":"0.9093751608999412","sum_d2":"228.36874859653875","mean_diff":"0.0018187503217998824","se":"0.030253908452197657","C_mean_edge":"104.41557193846859","B_mean_edge":"104.4137531881468","retail_diff":"-0.001154402398999885","arb_diff":"0.0029731527184002015"},"by_spread":{"1":{"n":"115","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"28.495154459731307","B_mean_edge":"28.495154459731307","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0"},"2":{"n":"116","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"97.76626247947758","B_mean_edge":"97.76626247947758","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0"},"3":{"n":"138","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"128.4054514027384","B_mean_edge":"128.4054514027384","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0"},"4":{"n":"131","sum_d":"0.9093751608999412","sum_d2":"228.36874859653875","mean_diff":"0.006941795121373597","se":"0.11579905345469423","C_mean_edge":"151.67942339822827","B_mean_edge":"151.67248160310686","retail_diff":"-0.004406116026717118","arb_diff":"0.011347911138932066"}}},
      "seconds_per_simulation": "1.3691598818471122",
      "flags": {"verification":"Hashes/syntax verified; declared comparator matches; selected counts reconcile; non-target deltas zero.","missing_counts":[],"protocol_violations":[],"source_warning_count":"0","notes":["Source reports all 700 assigned pairs, zero failures/exceptions, unchanged spreads 1..3 and cent-rounded initial quantity conservation (/validation; /failed_flags)."]}
    },
    {
      "key": "s4-flow-forgetting",
      "idea": "Spread-4 only: multiply accumulated event counts, exposures and log-likelihood weights by exp(-1/750) every on_step before new evidence. Fixed e-folding horizon in steps; likelihoods, pseudo-prior and output clamps unchanged. Other spread branches byte-identical.",
      "target_spreads": ["4"],
      "input_result_locator": "artifacts/goal/batches/r3-deepen-current/items/s4-flow-forgetting/result.json",
      "artifact_sha256": "a3c66bba6edd7d86a5c797c49983dc35824b21c22b356fad85ce571af11ad3c9",
      "code_url": "https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/a3c66bba6edd7d86a5c797c49983dc35824b21c22b356fad85ce571af11ad3c9",
      "code_sha256": "9e294124004b60d74ca2819a6ecc66365e0056808ba608ef54d2580c0b45949c",
      "incumbent_code_sha256": "bf0d179f3e47d28819f6fa7e0d25548c2ced43374c216d36460b00a26a26ffae",
      "complete": true,
      "failures": [],
      "tuning": {"seed_range_inclusive":["310000","310199"],"selected_variant":"horizon_750","selection":"Highest overall tuning mean among fixed horizons 250 and 750.","variants":[{"variant":"horizon_750","code_sha256":"9e294124004b60d74ca2819a6ecc66365e0056808ba608ef54d2580c0b45949c","selected":true,"source_pointer":"/tuning/750","overall":{"n":"200","sum_d":"4.332139322699897","sum_d2":"131.5930371439205","mean_diff":"0.021660696613499484","se":"0.05748043145025653","C_mean_edge":"85.1843138616555","B_mean_edge":"85.16265316504199","retail_diff":"0.022240626779000294","arb_diff":"-0.0005799301645000521","failed_pairs":"0","exceptions":"0"},"by_spread":{"1":{"n":"47","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"30.59600304578298","B_mean_edge":"30.59600304578298","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0","failed_pairs":"0","exceptions":"0"},"2":{"n":"57","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"81.35713208259824","B_mean_edge":"81.35713208259824","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0","failed_pairs":"0","exceptions":"0"},"3":{"n":"53","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"115.06691980369057","B_mean_edge":"115.06691980369057","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0","failed_pairs":"0","exceptions":"0"},"4":{"n":"43","sum_d":"4.332139322699897","sum_d2":"131.5930371439205","mean_diff":"0.10074742610929993","se":"0.26948598097320703","C_mean_edge":"113.09179885757209","B_mean_edge":"112.9910514314628","retail_diff":"0.10344477571628044","arb_diff":"-0.0026973496023258237","failed_pairs":"0","exceptions":"0"}}},{"variant":"horizon_250","code_sha256":"7c4f73199875d91bf806505dd949b643cc6d9e2e59473778487f2261eeec8dab","selected":false,"source_pointer":"/tuning/250","overall":{"n":"200","sum_d":"-9.092495802599966","sum_d2":"1664.7699247494816","mean_diff":"-0.04546247901299983","se":"0.20449450837006497","C_mean_edge":"85.117190686029","B_mean_edge":"85.16265316504199","retail_diff":"-0.040655590912499734","arb_diff":"-0.0048068880955001786","failed_pairs":"0","exceptions":"0"},"by_spread":{"1":{"n":"47","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"30.59600304578298","B_mean_edge":"30.59600304578298","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0","failed_pairs":"0","exceptions":"0"},"2":{"n":"57","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"81.35713208259824","B_mean_edge":"81.35713208259824","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0","failed_pairs":"0","exceptions":"0"},"3":{"n":"53","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"115.06691980369057","B_mean_edge":"115.06691980369057","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0","failed_pairs":"0","exceptions":"0"},"4":{"n":"43","sum_d":"-9.092495802599966","sum_d2":"1664.7699247494816","mean_diff":"-0.21145339075813877","se":"0.9595493375348965","C_mean_edge":"112.77959804070466","B_mean_edge":"112.9910514314628","retail_diff":"-0.18909577168604527","arb_diff":"-0.02235761904883804","failed_pairs":"0","exceptions":"0"}}}]},
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    },
    {
      "key": "s1-queue-safety",
      "idea": "Spread 1 only: the QB off-target bid retention exception now also needs ptk - tick >= qb_z * 100 * s, with s the existing posterior-plus-one-step standard deviation and qb_z=5. An order failing it falls through to cancel. qbid, top selection, AH retention and retained-ask rules are unchanged.",
      "target_spreads": ["1"],
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      "artifact_sha256": "e4f60b549bcecf2d4d54e39084dcd646c7fcfb67c44dd516545caf3aa384dd1c",
      "code_url": "https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/e4f60b549bcecf2d4d54e39084dcd646c7fcfb67c44dd516545caf3aa384dd1c",
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      "seconds_per_simulation": {"first_10_tuning_pairs":"0.5376991795143112","all_tuning":"0.5553650222939904","all_holdout":"0.5464546152369585"},
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    {
      "key": "s2-coverage-threshold",
      "idea": "Only for self.s == 2, replace fixed xu uncovered-ask gate by AB(x - 1.645*sqrt(var_t)/100)[1]/(1-x) <= bound. The shift is a conservative normal approximation to posterior uncertainty, not a calibrated coverage guarantee. Preserve fu cash cap, all sizing, covered asks, and terminal Hu relaxation.",
      "target_spreads": ["2"],
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      "tuning": {"seed_range_inclusive":["310000","310199"],"selected_variant":"loose_bound_0.0003","selection":"Highest overall paired mean on T only; hash and mask frozen before any H simulation.","variants":[{"variant":"loose_bound_0.0003","code_sha256":"f37573205bf613e9bad7bc533253b4ad3b8f86ddafa1733238fa54d4efe0764d","selected":true,"source_pointer":"/tuning","overall":{"n":"200","sum_d":"-8.167407973200003","sum_d2":"358.4993974519868","mean_diff":"-0.04083703986600001","se":"0.0948638093733257","C_mean_edge":"85.121816125176","B_mean_edge":"85.16265316504199","retail_diff":"-0.18870136232050072","arb_diff":"0.14786432244849834"},"by_spread":{"1":{"n":"47","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"30.59600304578298","B_mean_edge":"30.59600304578298","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0"},"2":{"n":"57","sum_d":"-8.167407973200003","sum_d2":"358.4993974519868","mean_diff":"-0.14328785917894743","se":"0.334582140848975","C_mean_edge":"81.2138442234193","B_mean_edge":"81.35713208259824","retail_diff":"-0.6621100432298306","arb_diff":"0.5188221840298262"},"3":{"n":"53","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"115.06691980369057","B_mean_edge":"115.06691980369057","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0"},"4":{"n":"43","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"112.9910514314628","B_mean_edge":"112.9910514314628","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0"}}},{"variant":"tight_bound_0.0001","code_sha256":"e1393ba25ddb449672e9c695f81d6eb01329fd3398e9630ac079202bec842899","selected":false,"source_pointer":"/tried/0/tuning","overall":{"n":"200","sum_d":"-18.45592762040001","sum_d2":"351.5274583513316","mean_diff":"-0.09227963810200006","se":"0.09375263507582286","C_mean_edge":"85.07037352694","B_mean_edge":"85.16265316504199","retail_diff":"-0.2254067804380071","arb_diff":"0.1331271423304976"},"by_spread":{"1":{"n":"47","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"30.59600304578298","B_mean_edge":"30.59600304578298","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0"},"2":{"n":"57","sum_d":"-18.45592762040001","sum_d2":"351.5274583513316","mean_diff":"-0.32378820386666685","se":"0.329022078915182","C_mean_edge":"81.03334387873159","B_mean_edge":"81.35713208259824","retail_diff":"-0.7909009839929837","arb_diff":"0.4671127801070192"},"3":{"n":"53","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"115.06691980369057","B_mean_edge":"115.06691980369057","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0"},"4":{"n":"43","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"112.9910514314628","B_mean_edge":"112.9910514314628","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0"}}}]},
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      "seconds_per_simulation": "1.3506912402561284",
      "flags": {"verification":"Hashes/syntax verified; declared comparator matches; selected counts reconcile; non-target deltas zero.","missing_counts":[],"protocol_violations":[],"source_warning_count":"1","notes":["Both tuning variants have negative total differences; selected screening loses retail edge faster than it improves arbitrage.","The normal posterior shift is explicitly an approximation, not a calibrated coverage guarantee (/approach).","Source failed-flag strings contain only zeros for every completed T and H seed (/run_audit); these are source reports, not a fresh simulation."]}
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    {
      "key": "s3-flow-shrinkage",
      "idea": "Spread 3 only: shrink existing stock-flow multiplier deviation from 1 by exposure/(exposure+200). Existing exposure count, flow_notional, prior-smoothed raw flow estimate, clamp and all other branches unchanged.",
      "target_spreads": ["3"],
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      "tuning": {"seed_range_inclusive":["310000","310199"],"selected_variant":"effective-count-200","selection":"One prespecified variant.","variants":[{"variant":"effective-count-200","code_sha256":"2c189901b8195adb74e04ce4d8b1b5d684c31599ea188e10a6b1b3a41ff384f1","selected":true,"source_pointer":"/tuning","overall":{"n":"200","sum_d":"-3.0845094921001106","sum_d2":"31.41034587575459","mean_diff":"-0.015422547460500553","se":"0.028071505466196522","C_mean_edge":"85.1472306175815","B_mean_edge":"85.16265316504199","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"-0.015422547462499736"},"by_spread":{"1":{"n":"47","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"30.59600304578298","B_mean_edge":"30.59600304578298","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0"},"2":{"n":"57","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"81.35713208259824","B_mean_edge":"81.35713208259824","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0"},"3":{"n":"53","sum_d":"-3.0845094921001106","sum_d2":"31.41034587575459","mean_diff":"-0.05819829230377567","se":"0.10645159555155359","C_mean_edge":"115.0087215113868","B_mean_edge":"115.06691980369057","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"-0.05819829231131976"},"4":{"n":"43","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"112.9910514314628","B_mean_edge":"112.9910514314628","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0"}}}]},
      "paired": {"source_pointer":"/paired","seed_range_inclusive":["410000","410499"],"overall":{"n":"500","sum_d":"14.932972126300086","sum_d2":"133.78638743054273","mean_diff":"0.029865944252600172","se":"0.023117752083469483","C_mean_edge":"104.4436191323994","B_mean_edge":"104.4137531881468","retail_diff":"-0.0018007580198000142","arb_diff":"0.0316667022728"},"by_spread":{"1":{"n":"115","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"28.495154459731307","B_mean_edge":"28.495154459731307","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0"},"2":{"n":"116","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"97.76626247947758","B_mean_edge":"97.76626247947758","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0"},"3":{"n":"138","sum_d":"14.932972126300086","sum_d2":"133.78638743054273","mean_diff":"0.10820994294420352","se":"0.08361177159429269","C_mean_edge":"128.5136613456826","B_mean_edge":"128.4054514027384","retail_diff":"-0.006524485578985558","arb_diff":"0.11473442852463771"},"4":{"n":"131","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"151.67248160310686","B_mean_edge":"151.67248160310686","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0"}}},
      "seconds_per_simulation": {"overall":"0.3230736872701631","B":"0.3227952284532616","C":"0.3233521460870647","first_10_pairs_seconds":"6.411755949928192","total_simulation_seconds":"452.3384474928316","pilot_detail_source_pointer":"/seconds_per_simulation/first_10_pairs"},
      "flags": {"verification":"Hashes/syntax verified; declared comparator matches; selected counts reconcile; non-target deltas zero.","missing_counts":[],"protocol_violations":[],"source_warning_count":"0","notes":["Source reports zero non-target edge-component differences and independent recomputation from its saved records (/verification). Those complete records are not in this input."]}
    },
    {
      "key": "s2-side-risk",
      "idea": "Split diffusion-only loss weights by side at s=2. Keep jump loss, retail gains, low-probability inventory factors, terminal H=1 and other spread branches unchanged.",
      "target_spreads": ["2"],
      "input_result_locator": "artifacts/goal/batches/r3-deepen-current/items/s2-side-risk/result.json",
      "artifact_sha256": "7d4477490a285f9c7f2eb0d2ac89b584550b5e094737e0fad1d7670280e76bf7",
      "code_url": "https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/7d4477490a285f9c7f2eb0d2ac89b584550b5e094737e0fad1d7670280e76bf7",
      "code_sha256": "b1edc389df0c35a2dc0d73096f6a5eed337ff4ef026000ef67621f34773fee8f",
      "incumbent_code_sha256": "bf0d179f3e47d28819f6fa7e0d25548c2ced43374c216d36460b00a26a26ffae",
      "complete": true,
      "failures": {"events":[],"missing_suffixes":{"T0":null,"T1":null,"H0":null},"failed_flag_count":"0","exception_count":"0","observed_sampled_regime_mismatches":"0"},
      "tuning": {"seed_range_inclusive":["310000","310199"],"selected_variant":"bid_1.2_ask_1.0","selection":"largest overall paired tuning mean","variants":[{"variant":"bid_1.2_ask_1.0","code_sha256":"b1edc389df0c35a2dc0d73096f6a5eed337ff4ef026000ef67621f34773fee8f","selected":true,"source_pointer":"/tuning/variants/0","overall":{"n":"200","sum_d":"-19.764130262499933","sum_d2":"266.15030326933294","mean_diff":"-0.09882065131249966","se":"0.08147466219015079","C_mean_edge":"85.06383251372951","B_mean_edge":"85.16265316504199","retail_diff":"-0.21878221536899978","arb_diff":"0.11996156405850014","failed_rows":"0","exceptions_without_edge":"0"},"by_spread":{"1":{"n":"47","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"30.59600304578298","B_mean_edge":"30.59600304578298","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0","failed_rows":"0","exceptions_without_edge":"0"},"2":{"n":"57","sum_d":"-19.764130262499933","sum_d2":"266.15030326933294","mean_diff":"-0.3467391274122795","se":"0.2850148975946577","C_mean_edge":"81.01039295518598","B_mean_edge":"81.35713208259824","retail_diff":"-0.7676568960315782","arb_diff":"0.4209177686263163","failed_rows":"0","exceptions_without_edge":"0"},"3":{"n":"53","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"115.06691980369057","B_mean_edge":"115.06691980369057","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0","failed_rows":"0","exceptions_without_edge":"0"},"4":{"n":"43","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"112.9910514314628","B_mean_edge":"112.9910514314628","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0","failed_rows":"0","exceptions_without_edge":"0"}}},{"variant":"bid_1.4_ask_0.9","code_sha256":"06b2ffa42d371b496f925ba19a7d7cace068f0bb5892611686f63f4e11fd9341","selected":false,"source_pointer":"/tuning/variants/1","overall":{"n":"200","sum_d":"-27.188876580800013","sum_d2":"421.036763697149","mean_diff":"-0.13594438290400007","se":"0.10240090057418931","C_mean_edge":"85.02670878213799","B_mean_edge":"85.16265316504199","retail_diff":"-0.21882522783499955","arb_diff":"0.08288084492550009","failed_rows":"0","exceptions_without_edge":"0"},"by_spread":{"1":{"n":"47","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"30.59600304578298","B_mean_edge":"30.59600304578298","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0","failed_rows":"0","exceptions_without_edge":"0"},"2":{"n":"57","sum_d":"-27.188876580800013","sum_d2":"421.036763697149","mean_diff":"-0.4769978347508774","se":"0.3575482723420174","C_mean_edge":"80.88013424784737","B_mean_edge":"81.35713208259824","retail_diff":"-0.7678078169649107","arb_diff":"0.2908099821947372","failed_rows":"0","exceptions_without_edge":"0"},"3":{"n":"53","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"115.06691980369057","B_mean_edge":"115.06691980369057","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0","failed_rows":"0","exceptions_without_edge":"0"},"4":{"n":"43","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"112.9910514314628","B_mean_edge":"112.9910514314628","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0","failed_rows":"0","exceptions_without_edge":"0"}}}]},
      "paired": {"source_pointer":"/paired/statistics","seed_range_inclusive":["410000","410499"],"overall":{"n":"500","sum_d":"45.242926445200254","sum_d2":"988.7782139426724","mean_diff":"0.09048585289040051","se":"0.06282221532308681","C_mean_edge":"104.50423904103721","B_mean_edge":"104.4137531881468","retail_diff":"-0.14175743832000046","arb_diff":"0.23224329120059986","failed_rows":"0","exceptions_without_edge":"0"},"by_spread":{"1":{"n":"115","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"28.495154459731307","B_mean_edge":"28.495154459731307","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0","failed_rows":"0","exceptions_without_edge":"0"},"2":{"n":"116","sum_d":"45.242926445200254","sum_d2":"988.7782139426724","mean_diff":"0.39002522797586425","se":"0.2698120189693723","C_mean_edge":"98.15628770745344","B_mean_edge":"97.76626247947758","retail_diff":"-0.6110234410344847","arb_diff":"1.0010486689681029","failed_rows":"0","exceptions_without_edge":"0"},"3":{"n":"138","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"128.4054514027384","B_mean_edge":"128.4054514027384","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0","failed_rows":"0","exceptions_without_edge":"0"},"4":{"n":"131","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"151.67248160310686","B_mean_edge":"151.67248160310686","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0","failed_rows":"0","exceptions_without_edge":"0"}}},
      "seconds_per_simulation": {"mean":"0.7949769923520216","n":"1600","simulation_seconds":"1271.9631877632346","wall_seconds":"1272.294107542839","pilot_detail_source_pointer":"/seconds_per_simulation/first_10_assigned_pairs"},
      "flags": {"verification":"Hashes/syntax verified; declared comparator matches; selected counts reconcile; non-target deltas zero.","missing_counts":[],"protocol_violations":[],"source_warning_count":"0","notes":["Selected bid weight is 1.2 and ask weight 1.0 relative to incumbent kA; terminal H=1 is unchanged (/freeze; /approach). Screening arbitrage improves while retail falls.","Source audit reports one OS process, fresh instances, all 2000 steps, no finalist runs and no duplicate pairs (/audit)."]}
    },
    {
      "key": "s3-cover-reserve",
      "idea": "Spread 3 only: prioritize the already-eligible immediate-cover stock order at floor(phat*100) within the unchanged fb*free bid budget, then allocate remaining budget to the main bid. Preserve original eligibility, cover goal, and other spreads.",
      "target_spreads": ["3"],
      "input_result_locator": "artifacts/goal/batches/r3-deepen-current/items/s3-cover-reserve/result.json",
      "artifact_sha256": "203c849d06c8c3bb1d08ce0b5ceaa93877911f06fd20bd7b3e4a91e05914e5c1",
      "code_url": "https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/203c849d06c8c3bb1d08ce0b5ceaa93877911f06fd20bd7b3e4a91e05914e5c1",
      "code_sha256": "d67e65dad9c3c82552ed16dc44616d409d8d8ae58408dec2dba5ccdc4b3f1ba5",
      "incumbent_code_sha256": "bf0d179f3e47d28819f6fa7e0d25548c2ced43374c216d36460b00a26a26ffae",
      "complete": true,
      "failures": [],
      "tuning": {"seed_range_inclusive":["310000","310199"],"selected_variant":"full-cover-reservation","selection":"One variant, fixed before screening.","variants":[{"variant":"full-cover-reservation","code_sha256":"d67e65dad9c3c82552ed16dc44616d409d8d8ae58408dec2dba5ccdc4b3f1ba5","selected":true,"source_pointer":"/tuning","overall":{"n":"200","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"85.162653165042","B_mean_edge":"85.162653165042","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0","failed_flags":[]},"by_spread":{"1":{"n":"47","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"30.59600304578298","B_mean_edge":"30.59600304578298","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0","failed_flags":[]},"2":{"n":"57","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"81.35713208259824","B_mean_edge":"81.35713208259824","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0","failed_flags":[]},"3":{"n":"53","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"115.06691980369057","B_mean_edge":"115.06691980369057","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0","failed_flags":[]},"4":{"n":"43","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"112.9910514314628","B_mean_edge":"112.9910514314628","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0","failed_flags":[]}}}]},
      "paired": {"source_pointer":"/paired","seed_range_inclusive":["410000","410499"],"overall":{"n":"500","sum_d":"-0.24459081169999308","sum_d2":"0.059824665168061474","mean_diff":"-0.0004891816233999861","se":"0.0004891816233999861","C_mean_edge":"104.4132640065234","B_mean_edge":"104.4137531881468","retail_diff":"0.00534669222220009","arb_diff":"-0.005835873845399988","failed_flags":[]},"by_spread":{"1":{"n":"115","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"28.495154459731303","B_mean_edge":"28.495154459731303","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0","failed_flags":[]},"2":{"n":"116","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"97.76626247947759","B_mean_edge":"97.76626247947759","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0","failed_flags":[]},"3":{"n":"138","sum_d":"-0.24459081169999308","sum_d2":"0.059824665168061474","mean_diff":"-0.001772397186231834","se":"0.001772397186231834","C_mean_edge":"128.40367900555216","B_mean_edge":"128.4054514027384","retail_diff":"0.019372073268840908","arb_diff":"-0.02114447045434778","failed_flags":[]},"4":{"n":"131","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"151.67248160310686","B_mean_edge":"151.67248160310686","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0","failed_flags":[]}}},
      "seconds_per_simulation": "0.5930142825841904",
      "flags": {"verification":"Hashes/syntax verified; declared comparator matches; selected counts reconcile; non-target deltas zero.","missing_counts":[],"protocol_violations":[],"source_warning_count":"0","notes":["Neutral tuning; source reports exactly one changed screening pair, seed 410361 at spread 3, with negative total difference (/changed_pairs; /next).","Some B means differ from other items in the last floating-point digits. Values are preserved; this is not evidence of a comparator mismatch.","Source reports budget-invariant checks and exact seed coverage (/checks), not independently rerun here."]}
    },
    {
      "key": "s1-flow-priority",
      "idea": "Spread 1 ahead-order retention: compare its size with the repost target plus retail turnover inferred by B. The new retention limit is min(10q, q + self.fl_rate*min(steps_remaining,80)/price); initial quote sizing and B retail-flow estimator are unchanged.",
      "target_spreads": ["1"],
      "input_result_locator": "artifacts/goal/batches/r3-deepen-current/items/s1-flow-priority/result.json",
      "artifact_sha256": "4e867d353c9edf1c1314248819458e7a5a6e21a43bbe84037096cd8245374aa3",
      "code_url": "https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/4e867d353c9edf1c1314248819458e7a5a6e21a43bbe84037096cd8245374aa3",
      "code_sha256": "11946938d150d66c3867df10e84e6cdd206c272b256061b2c9a8aad50d665b6a",
      "incumbent_code_sha256": "bf0d179f3e47d28819f6fa7e0d25548c2ced43374c216d36460b00a26a26ffae",
      "complete": true,
      "failures": {"off_target_tuning":{"missing_seeds":[],"failed_or_exception":[],"spread_mismatches":[],"outside_seeds":[]},"selected_tuning":{"missing_seeds":[],"failed_or_exception":[],"spread_mismatches":[],"outside_seeds":[]},"holdout":{"missing_seeds":[],"failed_or_exception":[],"spread_mismatches":[],"outside_seeds":[]}},
      "tuning": {"seed_range_inclusive":["310000","310199"],"selected_variant":"same_queue_flow_limit","selection":"Selected same_queue_flow_limit; off_target_credit tuning mean was negative. Selection inferred from tried, selected code hash and tuning fields.","variants":[{"variant":"same_queue_flow_limit","code_sha256":"11946938d150d66c3867df10e84e6cdd206c272b256061b2c9a8aad50d665b6a","selected":true,"source_pointer":"/tuning","overall":{"n":"200","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"85.16265316504199","B_mean_edge":"85.16265316504199","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0"},"by_spread":{"1":{"n":"47","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"30.59600304578298","B_mean_edge":"30.59600304578298","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0"},"2":{"n":"57","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"81.35713208259824","B_mean_edge":"81.35713208259824","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0"},"3":{"n":"53","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"115.06691980369057","B_mean_edge":"115.06691980369057","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0"},"4":{"n":"43","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"112.9910514314628","B_mean_edge":"112.9910514314628","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0"}}},{"variant":"off_target_credit","code_sha256":"6e20170a891e471f781886ceaf7a8c60558c570350d327ece6410772f5be846c","selected":false,"source_pointer":"/tried/0/tuning","overall":{"n":"200","sum_d":"-4.441941795200016","sum_d2":"18.99370551015813","mean_diff":"-0.02220970897600008","se":"0.021788759304976757","C_mean_edge":"85.14044345606601","B_mean_edge":"85.16265316504199","retail_diff":"-0.05627434151050024","arb_diff":"0.034064632521000025"},"by_spread":{"1":{"n":"47","sum_d":"-4.441941795200016","sum_d2":"18.99370551015813","mean_diff":"-0.09450939989787269","se":"0.09268804237451274","C_mean_edge":"30.501493645885105","B_mean_edge":"30.59600304578298","retail_diff":"-0.23946528302340528","arb_diff":"0.1449558830680852"},"2":{"n":"57","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"81.35713208259824","B_mean_edge":"81.35713208259824","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0"},"3":{"n":"53","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"115.06691980369057","B_mean_edge":"115.06691980369057","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0"},"4":{"n":"43","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"112.9910514314628","B_mean_edge":"112.9910514314628","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0"}}}]},
      "paired": {"source_pointer":"/paired","seed_range_inclusive":["410000","410499"],"overall":{"n":"500","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"104.4137531881468","B_mean_edge":"104.4137531881468","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0"},"by_spread":{"1":{"n":"115","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"28.495154459731307","B_mean_edge":"28.495154459731307","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0"},"2":{"n":"116","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"97.76626247947758","B_mean_edge":"97.76626247947758","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0"},"3":{"n":"138","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"128.4054514027384","B_mean_edge":"128.4054514027384","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0"},"4":{"n":"131","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"151.67248160310686","B_mean_edge":"151.67248160310686","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0"}}},
      "seconds_per_simulation": {"first_10_tuning_seeds":["310000","310009"],"B_mean":"0.4299979869974777","C_mean":"0.4569437378551811","B_seconds":["0.45276275696232915","0.4189690269995481","0.4312378589529544","0.42206156393513083","0.42471237597055733","0.39251395920291543","0.4123070009518415","0.4154268279671669","0.44321882096119225","0.48676967807114124"],"C_seconds":["0.40710965381003916","0.4131753270048648","0.46372255589812994","0.48429564805701375","0.4316336589399725","0.32475653290748596","0.4113287189975381","0.4622306879609823","0.5818047989159822","0.5893797960598022"],"pilot_pairs_counted_once":true},
      "flags": {"verification":"Hashes/syntax verified; declared comparator matches; selected counts reconcile; non-target deltas zero.","missing_counts":[],"protocol_violations":[],"source_warning_count":"2","notes":["Selected policy reports exactly zero total, retail and arbitrage differences on every reported group in T and H; this establishes neutrality only on the evaluated seeds.","Rejected off_target_credit has negative tuning mean. Its code bytes and holdout are not supplied."]}
    },
    {
      "key": "s4-uncertainty-tail",
      "idea": "For spread 4 only, use the lower 20% quantile of the existing nine-point retail-size posterior, conditional on the unchanged point rate estimate. For exposure E<200, scale only new desired ask size by 1-(1-E/200)*(1-min(posterior_mean,q20)/posterior_mean); subtract kept ask quantity and floor at zero. Existing ask retention, posterior learning, stock demand, bids and other spread branches retain incumbent formulas. This is a conditional credible flow quantile, not a joint posterior over arrival rate and size.",
      "target_spreads": ["4"],
      "input_result_locator": "artifacts/goal/batches/r3-deepen-current/items/s4-uncertainty-tail/result.json",
      "artifact_sha256": "10c5f5e7a38d6b1fbfc35993bc762a8dec90b21d813e8f2ab810fc3acecd1af2",
      "code_url": "https://api.imd.fun/artifacts/10c5f5e7a38d6b1fbfc35993bc762a8dec90b21d813e8f2ab810fc3acecd1af2",
      "code_sha256": "120ca4121b17c5b56982d8c6258d9edf1db9985e3119eb66d7b0d956629f2d63",
      "incumbent_code_sha256": "bf0d179f3e47d28819f6fa7e0d25548c2ced43374c216d36460b00a26a26ffae",
      "complete": true,
      "failures": [],
      "tuning": {"seed_range_inclusive":["310000","310199"],"selected_variant":"conditional-q20-linear-exposure200","selection":"One variant, frozen before screening.","variants":[{"variant":"conditional-q20-linear-exposure200","code_sha256":"120ca4121b17c5b56982d8c6258d9edf1db9985e3119eb66d7b0d956629f2d63","selected":true,"source_pointer":"/tuning","overall":{"n":"200","sum_d":"7.9187467026000995","sum_d2":"91.26159726900839","mean_diff":"0.039593733513000495","se":"0.04780300460540361","C_mean_edge":"85.202246898555","B_mean_edge":"85.16265316504199","retail_diff":"0.008119149331000362","arb_diff":"0.03147458418500005"},"by_spread":{"1":{"n":"47","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"30.59600304578298","B_mean_edge":"30.59600304578298","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0"},"2":{"n":"57","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"81.35713208259824","B_mean_edge":"81.35713208259824","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0"},"3":{"n":"53","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"115.06691980369057","B_mean_edge":"115.06691980369057","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0"},"4":{"n":"43","sum_d":"7.9187467026000995","sum_d2":"91.26159726900839","mean_diff":"0.18415690006046742","se":"0.2229909758662231","C_mean_edge":"113.17520833152325","B_mean_edge":"112.9910514314628","retail_diff":"0.0377634852604668","arb_diff":"0.1463934148139537"}}}]},
      "paired": {"source_pointer":"/paired","seed_range_inclusive":["410000","410499"],"overall":{"n":"500","sum_d":"16.559981069300136","sum_d2":"184.42867576606233","mean_diff":"0.03311996213860027","se":"0.027147648681570945","C_mean_edge":"104.44687315028541","B_mean_edge":"104.4137531881468","retail_diff":"-0.007379862829399585","arb_diff":"0.04049982497039996"},"by_spread":{"1":{"n":"115","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"28.495154459731307","B_mean_edge":"28.495154459731307","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0"},"2":{"n":"116","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"97.76626247947758","B_mean_edge":"97.76626247947758","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0"},"3":{"n":"138","sum_d":"0.0","sum_d2":"0.0","mean_diff":"0.0","se":"0.0","C_mean_edge":"128.4054514027384","B_mean_edge":"128.4054514027384","retail_diff":"0.0","arb_diff":"0.0"},"4":{"n":"131","sum_d":"16.559981069300136","sum_d2":"184.42867576606233","mean_diff":"0.12641206923129875","se":"0.10347323977786185","C_mean_edge":"151.79889367233818","B_mean_edge":"151.67248160310686","retail_diff":"-0.028167415379387727","arb_diff":"0.15457948461984716"}}},
      "seconds_per_simulation": "1.4437718254371015",
      "flags": {"verification":"Hashes/syntax verified; declared comparator matches; selected counts reconcile; non-target deltas zero.","missing_counts":[],"protocol_violations":[{"source_pointer":"/local_checks/execution","issue":"Actual execution used successive T/H Python invocations, contrary to the required ONE OS process; /reproduction/method describes the intended one-process method."}],"source_warning_count":"0","notes":["This is a retail-size quantile conditional on a point rate estimate, not a joint arrival-rate/size posterior (/approach).","Source reports a synthetic check that ask reduction vanishes at 200 exposures and learned posterior/non-sell actions remain unchanged (/local_checks)."]}
    }
  ],
  "findings": [
    {
      "spread": "1",
      "keys": ["s1-queue-safety","s1-flow-priority"],
      "assessment": "Queue safety has a positive but inconclusive screening estimate after negative tuning; it is closer to removal of the exception than a demonstrated calibrated safety threshold. Flow priority is exactly neutral on the supplied selected-policy aggregates. Source warnings affect both; queue safety also violates the process rule.",
      "source_pointers": ["s1-queue-safety:/tried","s1-queue-safety:/tuning","s1-queue-safety:/paired","s1-flow-priority:/tuning","s1-flow-priority:/paired"]
    },
    {
      "spread": "2",
      "keys": ["s2-side-risk","s2-coverage-threshold"],
      "assessment": "Side risk has the largest positive overall screening point estimate here, driven by less arbitrage loss at a retail cost; both tuning variants were negative. Coverage threshold is negative on both phases: retail loss outweighs arbitrage improvement.",
      "source_pointers": ["s2-side-risk:/tuning/variants","s2-side-risk:/paired/statistics","s2-coverage-threshold:/tried","s2-coverage-threshold:/paired"]
    },
    {
      "spread": "3",
      "keys": ["s3-flow-shrinkage","s3-cover-reserve"],
      "assessment": "Shrinkage has a small positive screening estimate mainly from arbitrage, with negative tuning and insufficient evidence. Cover reservation is neutral on tuning and slightly negative on screening from one reported changed pair.",
      "source_pointers": ["s3-flow-shrinkage:/tuning","s3-flow-shrinkage:/paired","s3-cover-reserve:/tuning","s3-cover-reserve:/paired","s3-cover-reserve:/changed_pairs"]
    },
    {
      "spread": "4",
      "keys": ["s4-ask-saturation","s4-bid-tranches","s4-flow-forgetting","s4-uncertainty-tail"],
      "assessment": "Forgetting is too noisy and worsens arbitrage; bid tranches are near zero; uncertainty-tail is a small inconclusive arbitrage improvement with slight retail loss; ask saturation is negative and rarely binds in the selected form. The tighter rejected ask cap loses retail edge on tuning.",
      "source_pointers": ["s4-ask-saturation:/tuning","s4-ask-saturation:/paired","s4-bid-tranches:/paired","s4-flow-forgetting:/paired","s4-uncertainty-tail:/paired"]
    }
  ]
}
```